NFL Online Betting Against the Spread Week 4 Part One

The Cincinnati Bengals(1-2) at The Pittsburgh Steelers(2-1)
Opening NFL betting line Steelers -3.5 -110 Over/Under 39 -110
Current High Steelers -5 -110
Current Low Steelers -4 -110
Over/Under 38-39 -110

I wrote about 250 words on this match-up and as I read I realized that I was doing exactly what I was trying to avoid. I just can't be objective when talking about The Bengals. The fact is I love this team and that makes everything I write suspect. Even when I'm writing a disparaging paragraph about them I'm overly harsh, because My Opinions of what should be happening on the field are not happening. So I'm going to refrain from giving a take on this game, but I'm saving my draft, and will post it later for anyone who may be interested.

The Indianapolis Colts(2-1) at The Jacksonville Jaguars(3-0)
Opening NFL betting line Colts -3.5 -110 Over/Under 42 -110
Current High Colts -4.5 -110
Current Low Colts -3.5 -115
Over/Under 43 -110

Well For those that saw The Packers vs. The Colts we all know what's in store for The Jacksonville Jaguars. Even though The Jaguars Secondary is not nearly as suspect as the Packs', sitting towards the top of the heap at a solid 8th against the pass, let us not forget the weapons that are at the disposal of Payton Manning. Could we see Tight End Dallas Clark finally emerge on the scene this week? If that happens it will only mean more bad news for The Jaguars.

Ah, The Jaguars... Despite only having scored a total of 35 points in the first 3 games they sit atop their division ahead of The colts by one game, and stand proud as one of only 6 teams that are undefeated. But they are going to have to do a lot to keep that lofty status this Sunday. Despite the fact that they will be going up against the leagues worst defense (32nd overall) they are going to have to be a different team offensively than we have seen thus far to make it a game that their defense can keep them in. They have won the close ones because they were close. They have thus far played ball against mediocre offenses, and this ain't a mediocre offense. They have not shown the prowess that they are going to have to have on the offensive side of the ball to keep up.

Analysis: If you can get them -3.5 or 4, it's not a horrible bet. The Over/Under I would stay away from.
Side Notes: Colts are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six overall, Colts are 1-6 ATS in last seven played in Oct., Jaguars are 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.

The New England Patriots(2-0) at The Buffalo Bills(0-2)
Opening NFL betting line Patriots -5.5 -110 Over/Under 35.5 -110
Current High Patriots -6.5 -110
Current Low Patriots -5.5 -110
Over/Under 35 -110

The New England Patriots sit tied with the N.Y. Jets in the AFC East and are also undefeated. They are coming off a bye week which means, well it means nothing really. This early in the season, it just doesn't mean as much as those teams that are going to be getting theirs in weeks 7-10. Those players that it could have impacted, namely WR Deion Branch and QB Tom Brady, it didn't. Well maybe it aided Brady a bit, giving him the opportunity to rest his shoulder an extra week. But he's listed as Probable and will start and it would have been the same last week. Branch is Doubtful, will probably not play, and that wouldn't have been any different last week. They, and I mean the The Pats' as a whole, didn't really need a break and in fact it might be to their detriment. In week one those beat The Colts in a close game and had just started to show us a bit of the NFL Championship winning offense in the win against The Arizona Cardinals in week two. But that being what it may, they are relatively healthy, are the reigning Champions and have everything to prove. Brady may not be the best QB in the game but he is a true leader and that counts for a ton in this day and age.

The Bills however are stingy when it comes to giving up points, holding their opponents to an average of only 13 points and giving up only 249 total yards a game. They are 4th against the rush and 6th against the pass, despite the loss of Strong Safety Lawyer Milloy in the pre-season. So where's the catch? It's two fold really, first the numbers are deceiving. To begin with, their first game was against The Jaguars, and we know what kind of offense they can mount, their second was against The Raiders. Who, until last weeks game, were just a whisper above The Jags'. But it doesn't stop there, they LOST to both of them. Now the second part, I for one am still waiting for the resurgence of QB Drew Bledsoe and The Bills Offense that I keep hearing talk about but have yet to see materialize. Bottom line even at home I don't think they will be getting their first win of the season this weekend.

But wins and losses don't always matter when it comes to handicapping, so when it comes down to laying money on this game I have to lean towards staying away from this one. The Pats' could as easily cover as not. It's a coin flip in my opinion. The Over/Under on the other hand is not nearly as treacherous. If you want action on this game and were asking my opinion I would say, “make it small and take the Under at 35”.
Side Notes: The last 10 meetings have played Under, Under is 16-2 in Bills last 18 overall.

The N.Y. Giants(2-1) at The Green Bay Packers(1-2)
Opening NFL betting line Packers -7 -110 Over/Under 44 -110
Current High Packers -7.5 Even
Current Low Packers -7 -110
Over/Under 43.5-44 -110

The N.Y. Giants are not playing giant football, but they aren't without merit either. They lost to a much better team in their Home opener to The Philadelphia Eagles, and The Eagles covered. They walked on the field an underdog to The Washington Redskins and won. Then did exactly what they were supposed to do in beating The Cleveland Browns, covering the spread in the process. Now the face off against The Packers. Boy, oh boy, I don't like this one. The Giants are hurting at nearly every position, and their lack of depth due to this means that any injury during this game is going to have an impact. The most susceptible point being in the secondary. With the injury reserved list in all likelihood getting the name Shaun Williams (Strong Safety) added another strike there could be the proverbial straw. I have to say that they have played proudly despite these problems but are really going to have their plate full when they hit Lambeau Field. Quarter Back Kurt Warner and crew are going to have to try and follow suit, and do as much damage in the air as they can.

Now we move on to the Packers, who are not fairing much better in their secondary. With CBs Mike McKenzie and Ahmad Carroll both listed as Questionable and the vulnerability that was exposed and exploited by The Colts, they also have the problem of being hurt nearly everywhere else on defense. The rift in the locker room, trade talk about McKenzie and the ailing shoulder of QB Brett Favre all add up to a tough road ahead for The Packs'. Running Back Ahman Green is going to have to step up big for this game. If the Packers can't do a good job of clock management with long drives that keep their desolated defense on the sidelines it mean the first three game losing streak in Mike Sherman's five seasons at the helm.

Enough rambling, let's get to the heart of this, my “pick”. The Packers certainly have the skills to cover 7 points on the offensive side of the ball but can they keep The Giants from lashing right back at them. I think they can. Favre is known for his ability to come big when the chips are down. They are going to be at home, and that is worth more than the standard 3 points in this case. I may actually put a little of my own money on this one.

Bottom line Packers -7 is worthy of a early season small wager. Probably a safer bet, however, is the Over. Particularly if you can get it down around the 43 mark.
Side Notes: Packers are 3-1 ATS in the last three meetings, Giants are 2-5 ATS in last seven Oct. games, Packers are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 overall

Well I ended up writing a lot more than I intended so I'm going to break here and finish with the rest of week 4 tomorrow. My thanks for dropping in and taking a peek.

Bronczilla's Take on the Game

Bronczilla, a fellow blogger and Football fan, found my humble little blip on the blog radar worth not only a link but a post as well. A great big shout out to Bronczilla!

On a more serious note, I read his blog regularly. Not only is his writing fun to read, but he has a knowledge of the sport that makes his stuff very informative as well. His take on the Sarigusa/Harrington issue was fantastic, and it was just part of a great post.

If you're a fan of the game do yourself a favor and drop by his site, you won't be disappointed.

NFL Week 4 Schedule and NFL Betting Line

The Cincinnati Bengals(1-2) at The Pittsburgh Steelers(2-1)
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Cincinnati Bengals +3.5 -110
Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 -110
Over/Under 39 -110

The Indianapolis Colts(2-1) at The Jacksonville Jaguars(3-0)
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Indianapolis Colts -3.5 -110
Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 -110
Over/Under 42 -110

The New England Patriots(2-0) at The Buffalo Bills(0-2)
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
New England Patriots -5.5 -110
Buffalo Bills +5.5 -110
Over/Under 35.5 -110

The N.Y. Giants(2-1) at The Green Bay Packers(1-2)
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
N.Y. Giants +7 -110
Green Bay Packers -7 -110
Over/Under 44 -110

The Oakland Raiders(2-1) at The Houston Texans(1-2)
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Oakland Raiders -2 -110
Houston Texans +2 -110
Over/Under 42.5 -110

The Philadelphia Eagles(3-0) at The Chicago Bears(1-2)
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Philadelphia Eagles -8.5 -110
Chicago Bears +8.5 -110
Over/Under 41 -110

The Washington Redskins(1-2) at The Cleveland Browns(1-2)
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Washington Redskins -3 -110
Cleveland Browns +3 -110
Over/Under 36 -110

The Atlanta Falcons(3-0) at The Carolina Panthers(1-1)
Sunday 4:05 PM ET
Atlanta Falcons +3.5 -110
Carolina Panthers -3.5 -110
Over/Under 40 -110

The New Orleans Saints(2-1) at The Arizona Cardinals(0-3)
Sunday 4:05 PM ET
New Orleans Saints -3 -110
Arizona Cardinals +3 -110
Over/Under 40.5 -110

The Denver Broncos(2-1) at The Tampa Bay Buccaneers(0-3)
Sunday 4:15 PM ET
Denver Broncos -3 -110
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 -110
Over/Under 36 -110

The N.Y. Jets(2-0) at The Miami Dolphins(0-3)
Sunday 4:15 PM ET
N.Y. Jets -5 -110
Miami Dolphins +5 -110
Over/Under 36 -110

The Tennessee Titans(1-2) at The San Diego Chargers(1-2)
Sunday 4:15 PM ET
OTB(Off The Board) at most Online Sportsbooks
Tennessee Titans -3 -110
San Diego Chargers +3 -110
Over/Under 41 -110

The St. Louis Rams(1-2) at The San Francisco 49ers(0-3)
Sunday 8:30 PM ET
St. Louis Rams -3.5 -110
San Francisco 49ers +3.5 -110
Over/Under 44 -110

The Kansas City Chiefs(0-3) at The Baltimore Ravens(2-1)
Monday 9:00 PM ET
Kansas City Chiefs +4.5 -110
Baltimore Ravens -4.5 -110
Over/Under 41.5 -110

NFL Against The Spread, and the Salary Cap

”My mailman likes me a lot.”
Seahawks', QB Matt Hasselbeck

Geeze Louise, did I ever take a pounding in week 3. Thank goodness no one actually reads this!

I broke my Cardinal Rule of NFL Handicapping and placed money on games way earlier than I normally would. Over the last four years, with the exception of some very select games, I have not started betting until at least week 6. Why?

Because there simply isn't enough information on the teams to make valid bets. That being said, for the first week of the blog I put my money on the games that I picked as my top five and well you know the rest of the story.

To backtrack just a bit, I said there isn't enough information. At first read this may sound like non-sense, but it is a fact.

Since the Salary Cap was instituted in 1998 the much heard phrase “League Parity” has been thrown around like a, well, worn-out pigskin. So much so that most of us have really missed what it truly means or meant. There are those that would have you believe that it was pure economics and the desire to minimize or rather avoid what has happened to the MLB.

Others would have you believe that it's roots were to be found in the small market team owners’ wanting a fair chance to put a competitive team on the field and compete with pre-salary-cap-era, spend-happy teams like the Dallas Cowboys or 49ers. This just didn’t happen prior to the institution of the salary cap due to lack of revenue.

But, while both of these do hold some truth, they are by no means the whole truth or even the majority of the reasoning behind The Salary Cap.

It's PARITY. It's about TV ratings points. It’s marketing. In a nutshell, it's about the dollar signs, the bling bling, the Cadillac Escalade with 20” spinners.

Why schedule four or five major games a year that everyone knows are going to be great gridiron battles when you can “level” the playing field and get 12, 14, or 16 of these games? That's exactly what the Salary Cap (from now on to be known as The Devil) has done.

So now we have we have four television stations getting into the action (ABC, CBS, FOX and ESPN). And what does that mean, boys and girls? It means billions of dollars to line the NFL team owners’ pockets.

When was the last time you heard about an NFL team losing money? It was pre-salary cap, that’s for sure.

We now have “classic rivalries” that, as a 25 year veteran of NFL fandom, I certainly didn't know as rivalries. Every week there is a “classic rivalry”. What does that equal up to? It's an easy one, c'mon, you can get this one... That's right, Money!

But what is the cost? A lot of you will argue that it has made it more interesting to watch the games. That teams that never would have stood a chance of getting into the playoffs are getting in. Well my question to you is this, does an 8-8 team REALLY deserve to be in the playoffs? Does this seem like fun football? Don't at least some of you miss hating (or loving) that one dynasty team?

As a kid I Loved the “Steel Curtain” of the Pittsburgh Steelers, in the '80's I Hated the “West Coast Offense” and the steam rolling San Francisco 49ers'. And finally in the Nineties, I couldn't wait to cheer against whatever underdog was playing Aikman, Smith, and Irvin of the Dallas Cowboys. With the exception of The Steelers, I LOVED having these teams to root against. I miss them. I miss what they brought to the game. But most of all I miss that feeling that I got when one of them was upset and actually beaten by a 12 point underdog. Those days are gone. They will never return, period.

But it's not just The Devil that caused this. There is also the draft system that awards the top picks to the worst teams. And lastly and in my opinion, least of all, free agency. I say least of all because if The Devil didn't exist this wouldn't be as much a bother.

And as if that wasn't bad enough it has taken what should be the ultimate NFL Fan Fantasy of owning your own NFL Team and turned it into a measure of black and red on some four-eyed (I'm glasses wearing programmer, so no offense meant) accountant’s spreadsheets. It's slowing deteriorating into a game of profits and expenses when it should be all about wins and losses. I mean who cares about wins and losses when the DGR is equally divided amongst all 32 teams. Let me digress for a moment and explain The Devil...

The Devil is determined through a complicated calculation system. The Devil is based on income that the teams earn during a League Year. A percentage of that income, termed Defined Gross Revenues (DGR), is allocated for player expenditures. The DGR is based on ticket sales, merchandise sales, and broadcasts. The DGR is divided equally amongst all 32 teams.

For all of you nerds out there (like me who wanted to understand the calculation), here is the actual mathematical calculation:
Projected DGR x Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) Percentage = Players Share DGR

Players Share minus Projected League wide Benefits =
Amount Available for Player Salaries

Amount Available for Player Salaries / Number of Teams =
Unadjusted Salary Cap per Team


Wow! And I thought this was football. But apparently it's not. It's about advertising, merchandising, broadcasting, and put bluntly, dollars and cents. And we all thought it was a game, played on a field, with a ball and twenty two players grinding it out for a victory.

Now I can hear you asking yourselves yourself, “What has this got to do with your picks, not betting until week 6 or later, or anything else about Gambling on the NFL?”. Well my loyal readers reader, I'll tell you. The teams change drastically every single season. Therefore the statistics from previous seasons, for the most part, mean Jack Diddly this season. So you have to gut out the beginning of the year until you have valid numbers to properly evaluate the match-ups.

Now, if you are anything like me, you hate to watch a Sunday go by without getting a little action in on the games. I feel your pain, I really do. But I seriously advise that you at least keep your bets to a minimum amount and always look closer at the Over/Under at this point in the season. You will have greater success betting Over/Under right now than playing what amounts to roulette with the point spread.

"The dynasties have gone the way of the dinosaurs, you'll never see it again. ... The system has changed to preclude that."
Art Modell, former Baltimore Ravens' Owner

Injury Update! Bad News For The Packers

...and for me and my BIG bet of the week. Mike Sherman announced today the Corner Backs Mike McKenzie and Ahmad Carroll will NOT be playing in todays game against The Colts. Additionally CB Michael Hawthorne will be playing injured.
Hawthorne and Carroll collided trying to break up a pass in practice on Friday, causing the Sidelining of the esteemed rookie Carroll, while McKenzie tweaked his hamy during said practice.
The loss of McKenzie may not be as disastrous as the loss of Carroll and the injury of Hawthorne in this bettor's opinion. They started their first two without him due to his holdout, but the loss of Carroll and the injury to Hawthorne is. Even without McKenzie they have stood middle of the pack against the pass (15th) but that was with Carroll and a healthy Hawthorne.
Does this mean they get crushed? I still don't think so, but it does make the Over (48.5) maybe a little bit more tasty. I'm not making the bet however, and if you have not yet laid money on the Packers, and were thinking about it, re-think it.

Starting Sunday off the wrong way...

NFL Pick of the Week

Rather than doing the usually and laying out my picks on every NFL game this week, I'm going to start with the games that I am actually betting on. For my complete evaluations on this weeks games please see NFL Against The Spread and NFL Against The Spread. Part Two

1).Atlanta -10 – This goes against the grain, but I believe in it enough that I have my hard earned cash on The Atlanta Falcons.

2).Green Bay +6.5 – I liked this game from day one and made this my BIG (if there is such a thing this early in the season) bet of the week. I just don't see The Green Bay Packers losing by that big a margin.

3).Houston +7.5 – I think that I'm pretty much in line with common thinking with this pick. The Kansas City Chiefs just don't have anything to bring to the field.

4).Minnesota -9.5 – Again I am swimming against the tide with this pick. Despite Rex Grossman and crews prediction that they will be able to run Thomas Jones and control the clock, I think that the missing piece here is the fact that they are going up against the 5th ranked rushing defense. I like Grossman and I like Jones, but that ain't enough.

5).Seattle Seahawks Over 43.5 – I stated in my earlier post (NFL Against The Spread. Part Two) I don't like this game against the spread. The Seahawks could cover, but that's a lot of points. Even though The 49ers are not very good I have not seen enough of now starting QB Ken Dorsey to put my money against him. But I have upgraded my opinion of the Over to being one worth me making a small wager on.

Still to come... Monday Night Football!

Chicago Bears Troubles Continue

The already decimated defense of The Bears just got worse. Middle linebacker Brian Urlacher has aggravated his right hamstring. The injury kept him out of all but an hour of practice on Friday.

According to Head Coach Lovie Smith Urlacher is a 50-50 to play tomorrow against The Vikings. This makes me think that my evaluation of this game and taking The Viking -9 more then just "not a stretch..."

NFL Against The Spread. Part Two

San Diego(1-1) at Denver(1-1) Denver -10. Return
I hate to start this with another “man this is a tough one to call”, but that's exactly what it is, a tough call. Let's begin with LaDainian Tomlinson who is bothered by a jammed big toe. He claims that it is NOT the “turf toe” we hear about so often but rather a simple jam in the upper part of his toe. That said, keep in mind that he pulled himself out for several plays during their loss to the Jets. It was late in the game and that might be a sign that fatigue adds to it being a bother. Added to that mix is quarterback Drew Brees who we all know has issues. Still, he has guided The Chargers to an average score ranking of 3rd, tied with the likes of The Indianapolis Colts and The Atlanta Falcons.
Denver's Quentin Griffin went off on Kansas City's weak defense in week 1, but was limited to only 66 yards on 25 carries against Jacksonville. But we are talking about the Chargers defense (ranked 24th overall; 17th against the rush 26th against the pass), not the Jaguars. Even with a 7th ranked offense the Broncos have not put big numbers on the score board. In a nutshell I think this game is better left alone, but if a gun was put to my head... I would have to take a bullet. Seriously though, I think that the weak link in this is Jake Plummer's question marks behind the gun, The Chargers +10.
Side Notes: Broncos are 1-3 against the spread (ATS) in their last four overall.

San Francisco(0-2) at Seattle(2-0), Seattle -10.5. Return
Whew, that's a big favorite... when was the last time that The Seahawks came into a game favored by those kind of numbers? Ok, don't answer that. The Seahawks with Mike Holmgren at the helm just keep getting better and better. Although Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is still going through some growing pains he's smart and does have some real weapons at his disposal in Wide Receivers Darrell Jackson and Koren Robinson. But the game still rests squarely on the shoulders of Running Back Shaun Alexander. Did I mention that's a big spread.
Now looking at The 49ers they are really banged up. Injuries are too long to list and are on both sides of the ball. Quarterback Ken Dorsey will be starting and is an unknown commodity at best, and has very little to work with. Although I really like the Seahawks I don't like this game against the spread. If some action on this one is what you want, look at taking the Over at 43.5 and cheer at every score.
Side Notes: Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings, Over is 5-2 in 49ers last seven overall.

Green Bay(1-1) at Indianapolis(1-1), Indianapolis -6.5. Return
I've really been looking forward to writing about this one. Add two explosive offenses, plus two fantastic quarterbacks, and you get a whole lotta fun to watch. I mean this should be a great one! The Packers led by quarterback Brett Favre are coming off a hard loss at home against The Chicago Bears, while The Colts with the dynamic Payton Manning guiding them, took out The Tennessee Titans in Tennessee.
I see big plays and big numbers written all over this one. Even with the injuries on both teams this is not going to be an defensive slug fest.
Despite the hamstring problem with running back Edgerrin James, he will probably get some play time and combined with Dominick Rhodes they will be able to wear down the front four enough for Manning to set up the play action, and we all know what he does when that happens.
With The Packers, you have the obvious, multi-talented running back Ahman Green setting up Favre for the rollouts and bootlegs, with his counter plays. Both teams have offensive linemen that are solid pass protectors and run blockers, so both quarterbacks are going to be able to do what they do best, throw the ball. Folks this one is going to be the afternoon game that will keep your eyes glued to the set and your butt planted in the chair. It's going to be a shootout, boy's. This is another game that I will be logging into my favorite online casino and getting a little action on. In fact I might even go two ways with this one. The Packers + 6.5 and the Over at 48.5. At the very least I love The Packers with the points.
Side Notes: Packers are 8-3 against the spread (ATS) in their last 11 overall, and 7-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last nine as a dog.

Tampa Bay(0-2) at Oakland(1-1), Oakland -3. Return
What can I really say about this match-up. This one IS going to be a defensive slug fest. The Raiders land on the field with the 4th ranked overall defense, and The Buccaneers step out on the grass just one notch above with the 3rd ranked overall defense. Offensively The Raiders sit just below the middle of the pack at 18th overall, while the anemic Buccaneers offense stands at a dismal 30th. If you're a fan of either of these teams and just need a reason to watch, or a football junkie who will watch whatever he (or she) can get and HAVE to have a reason to watch then my advice would be to start drinking early and heavy and with a little luck you'll be too drunk to wager on this game at all. But if that fails, do yourself a favor and take the Under at 34.5 and make it a small bet.
Side Notes: Why Bother.

Well your fedora adorned writer is signing off for the night. I'll be back tomorrow to right any wrongs, and give you my humble opinion on The Monday Night Football Game. Until then, keep on keepin' on!

NFL Meets Online Poker Or How I spent last-night.

I know my readers READER are IS anxiously awaiting my next post with my analysis of the afternoon games. I, however, am going to deviate from the norm and talk about something completely different, Poker!
I have been playing poker online at Party Poker with Iggy for several years now and doing well at the lower limits. Iggy as of late has been relentlessly urging me to move up (considerably) to higher limits, claiming that it was just as fishy. Well last night I did. I made the move and he was dead right. I will say that it did take about an orbit for me to get my wits about me, being a rather tight-aggressive player I did have the mental aspect of the move up to overcome. I don't like playing scared, in fact I like to be the pusher rather than the pushy (no pun intended).
But in any case Iggy was dead on. They were every bit as aggressive pre-flop, maybe even a little more so, as at the lower limit tables. I sat back waiting for the right places to stick my head in and finished the night a bit richer.
Just want to say to Iggy, Right On!

NFL Against the Spread

Houston(0-2) at Kansas City(0-2), Kansas City Chiefs –7.5. Return
Where do I even begin with this one? Well Let’s start with the obvious, Priest Holmes is listed as questionable for Sundays game. Now if I know Dick (I don’t, but let’s let me think I do) he will be ultra careful with Holmes this early in the season. Now take into account that Houston has SOME offense and that without Holmes KC has, well, NONE. I really like Houston +7.5-8. Keep in mind that they only lost by 7 to a pretty decent offense in the San Diego Chargers last week and The Chiefs defense is ranked 27th overall. I wouldn’t bet the bank (it’s just to early in the season for big bets) but this gambler's going to his favorite Online Casino for a NFL betting on this one.
Side Note: Houston is 10-3 Against The Spread (ATS) last 13 after two or more loses.


Jacksonville(2-0) at Tennessee(1-1), Tennessee –5.5. Return
This is going to be a tight, hard fought game. They both have injuries that are going to affect the game, but I think that they are “off-setting” (no pun intended). I don't think that I would put a wager on the spread for either team but I must say that if you're going to do a little NFL betting on this one, taking the under at 36 points is definitely not out of the question.
Side Notes: Under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings, Under is 8-1 in JAX's last nine games overall, Under is 5-1 in Titans last six played in Sept.

New Orleans(1-1) at St. Louis(1-1), St. Louis -7. Return
What can I say about this one. St. Louis Sucks, period. They have only covered the spread 3 times in their last 10 games and not even come close in their first 2 this season. Marc Bulger looks worse every time he steps out on the field and Marshall Faulk is in his twilight years( wink wink) New Orleans on the other hand looks to be improving, with a come from behind win against San Fransisco last week after losing The Duce, I have hopes for them yet. That being said I would caution against this game, just too many variables. But if you have to have NFL betting action, take New Orleans with the points.
Side Notes: Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings, Over is 10-4 in the Rams last 14 overall, NO is 1-6 ATS in the last seven played in Sept.

Philadelphia(2-0) at Detroit(2-0), Detroit +4.5. Return
Now this one is trouble! We all know what The Eagles can do offensively with weapons like Donovan McNabb, Terrell Owens, L.J. Smith and Brian Westbrook (combined for nearly 150yds.). But they also proved what a dynamite packed defense they have with their showing against Daunte, Moss and crew of number two ranked offense of the Minnesota Vikings. Now on to the Detroit Lions (are they roaring for real?), Quarterback Joey Harrington is the number 9th ranked QB with a passer rating of 93.8. That ain't not bad. Plus he showed no signs of giving up when Charles Rogers went down (again) with broken collarbone, immediately finding a home for the pigskin in the awaiting arms of rookie Wide Receiver Roy Williams (I love this guy) Hitting him four times for 73 yards and two strikes in the end-zone that Williams made look easy.
That being said they played the Houston Texans, 10th ranked offense, the Eagles are not a 10th ranked offense...the Lions are on a roll and have momentum, but so do the Eagles and although I think this is going to be a great game to watch, I don't think that Detroit can overcome their losses on the defensive side of the ball and come up with a victory. If I were doing any online NFL betting on this one (which I'm not) I would have to go with The Philadelphia Eagles -4.5. The Over Under at 44.5 is a crap shoot at best, wouldn't touch it either way.
Side Notes: PHI are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 overall, Eagles have won the last three meetings ATS.

Pittsburgh(1-1) at Miami(0-2), Miami -1. Return
Can you say coin toss. Despite all the injuries (just too damn many to list) and troubles that have plagued The Dolphins they are still a defensive powerhouse when it comes to the passing game. Herein lies the problem, The Dolphins give up an average of 138 yards a game rushing and The Steelers average just over the 100 yard mark. To counter that The Steelers proffer up a measly average of only 192 yards a game against a Dolphins defense that has only allowed an average of 110 yards a game. Did I say coin toss? I know everyone is saying, “hey, what about Ben Roethlisberger? Hey threw for two touchdowns against THE RAVENS!” He's a rookie QB, need I say more. There is light at the end of the tunnel for those that just have to have action on this game...The Over/Under! At 33.5 taking the under in this one is not at all a shabby bet and has me looking at it for a small NFL bet.
Side Notes: Under is 3-0-1 in the last four meeting, Under is 19-9 in MIA's last 28 on grass.

Arizona(0-2) at Atlanta(2-0), Atlanta -10. Return
OK let's take a look here The Cardinals are at the bottom of the heap when it comes to rush defense, albeit they might not have to stop Warrick Dunn (although he is expected to play), but they will have to stop Michael Vick (or is it Mike now), T.J Duckett and the emerging Justin Griffith. And the fact of the matter is they are 30th against the rush, 24th against the pass which puts them at the lowly state of being the 32nd ranked defense overall. And the woes don't stop there, The Cardinals pass ranking is 29th, rush ranking 27th and their overall offense ranking is just one above the bottom, 31st. Now The Falcons on the other hand are slightly below the middle of the pack with an overall defense ranking of 19th and an overall offense ranking of 16th but hidden in there is there rush ranking of...deep breath...number 2. But the Falcons are not without problems, Vick really only has two players to throw the ball to, Peerless Price and Alge Crumpler. That being said, I still see a sound thrashing ahead for the Cardinals. My online NFL betting will be on The Falcons to cover the spread and then some.
Side Notes: ARI is 4-13 ATS in their last 17 on the road, ATL has won the last two meeting against the spread (ATS), ATL is 6-3-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 overall.

Baltimore(1-1) at Cincinnati(1-1), Cincinnati +3. Return
Ok here is were I really can't give much. I'm a Cincinnati Fan and cannot in good conscious give any advice ideas or thoughts without my heart being a real factor in those words. I will say this much, I wouldn't put my money on either of them.

Chicago(1-1) at Minnesota(1-1), Minnesota -9. Return
This could be ugly, with a CB Charles Tillman out as well as Safety Mike Brown (out for season) CB’s Todd McMillon and rookie Nate Vasher must match up against the powerhouse that is the Vikings passing game. This could be a scoring frenzy by Randy Moss and the Vikings OTHER Wide Receivers. I can see big numbers coming out of Minnesota, with the spread currently setting at right around –9 it's not a stretch to make your NFL online betting with The Vikings-9.
Side Notes: MIN is 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings, MIN is 3-0 ATS in the last three at home.

Well that does it for the early games. I've got to get this fedora off my head, walk away from this terminal and play some video games...:)

I'll be back with the afternoon games and my opinions on them later tonight. I really hope that someone is reading this ;)-

NFL Betting Junkie RamblingsCan we have some more game changing Player injuries Please

"If you aren't fired with enthusiasm, you'll be fired with enthusiasm."
Vince Lombardi

Well my fedoras firmly fixed in place and I'm now ready go about writing what I have alluded to from the beginning. But first let me take you back for just a bit in time and explain why I'm here in Cincinnati and why all this about online betting.

In 1999 I followed a beautiful young lady some 14 years my Junior back to the Midwest. Now first off, I didn't go purely because of love or the fact that I didn't think that another woman of her looks would ever want a disheveled, poorly dressed, and less than perfectly groomed man such as my self.
But there was also the fact that I HATED Las Vegas. I was either holed up in the house with my buddies drinking and what not or God forgive me, seeking solace from the bells whistles sirens and the constant clatter of coins hitting tin cans, by going to the closest TGIF's simply because there were no slot machines.
I mean I'm really not kidding when I say that we would drop 3, 4, 500 bucks a visit in bar tabs BEFORE going "Out on the town". So it was not the greatest of places for a man with a penchant for the booze a gambling habit...

I know it's cliche but Las Vegas truly does earn the saying, "it's a great place to visit, but you wouldn't want to live there.

So I found myself in Cincinnati, with a beautiful young bride and a starvation for the Sportsbooks and not a Casino with a Sportsbook to be found. How on earth would I feed this demon. I tried finding a booky, but with out very many connections in town that was easier said than done. But then I discovered the Internet once again and found a completely different world. But again I digress...

Coming up next, my veiws on the games this week as well as an injury report that might be worth a read for those NFL Gambling Junkies. It's uber-post time...

NFL Week 3 Lines and Matchups
"Guys like Starr and Nitschke and Payton-- you hear those names and you can't help but ask yourself-- do I really belong here?" Barry Sanders, during his induction to the NFL Hall of Fame
Sunday, Sep 26	Line	Money Line	Time
Houston at Kansas City	47.5 o/u -102 -7.5 -101	Off	1:00 PM ET
Jacksonville at Tennessee	35.5 u 100 -5.5 -109	Off	1:00 PM ET
New Orleans at St. Louis	47.5 u -105 -7 102	Off	1:00 PM ET
Philadelphia at Detroit	44.5 u -105 +4.5 -107	Off	1:00 PM ET
Pittsburgh at Miami	33.5 u -105 -1 -107	Off	1:00 PM ET
Arizona at Atlanta	42.5 u -104 -10 101	Off	1:00 PM ET
Baltimore at Cincinnati	34.5 u -105 +3 -120	Off	1:00 PM ET
Chicago at Minnesota	44 u -111 -9 -102	Off	1:00 PM ET
Cleveland at New York Giants	37 u -110 -3 -109	Off	1:00 PM ET
San Diego at Denver	47 u 101 -10 -102	Off	4:05 PM ET
San Francisco at Seattle	44 u 101 -10.5 -101	Off	4:15 PM ET
Green Bay at Indianapolis	48.5 u -110 -6 100	Off	4:15 PM ET
Tampa Bay at Oakland	34.5 u -106 -3 -120	Off	8:30 PM ET
Monday, Sep 27	Line	Money Line	Time
Dallas at Washington	35.5 u -102 -2 100	Off	8:30 PM ET
Be back shortly with commentary and better formatting, right now my fedora is becoming soaked with sweat as I think about the possibilities for this weeks gambling endeavors...With the injury reports that have come in it keeps looking worse for some teams, Kansas City Chiefs Fans, my heart goes out to you...

Top 5 NFL Offense, Defense and ATS

Top 5 NFL Offense
Team Y/GmRushPass
Dallas Cowboys432.098.5333.5
Minnesota Vikings 412.5107.0305.5
Indianapolis Colts409.5165.5244.0
New York Jets409.0170.5238.5
New England Patriots389.5127.0262.5

Top 5 NFL Defense
Team Y/GmRushPass
Washington Redskins223.046.0177.0
Miami Dolphins226.5138.088.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers236.5111.0125.5
Oakland Raiders240.087.0153.0
Denver Broncos247.0117.0130.0

Top 5 NFL Against The Spread (ATS)
Team ATSW/LO/U
Detroit Lions2-0-02-0-01-1-0
Jacksonville Jaguars2-0-02-0-00-2-0
New York Jets2-0-02-0-02-0-0
Philadelphia Eagles2-0-02-0-01-1-0
Seattle Seahawks2-0-02-0-00-2-0