NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Picks of The Week 14, Part Duex

These are my middle of the road picks, worthy of medium sized bets. For my big bets this weekend:

   Top Three Picks


The Cleveland Browns (3-9) at The Buffalo Bills (6-6)
Against the Spread: Browns 4-8-0 | Bills 8-4-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bills -12.5 -100
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bills -11 -108 to -110
Over/Under 38u -110


The Browns had an outstanding offensive performance against the Cincinnati Bengals last week, even though they lost. That was with QB Kelly Holcomb at the helm. He's out for this game with cracked ribs. This leaves rookie Luke McCown taking snaps. Although he did not do a terrible job against NE going 20 of 34 for 277 yards and 2 touchdowns. He did get picked twice and was sacked on three occasions. Rumor has it that after his awful performance last week, RB William Green will play second string to rookie RB Adimchinobe Echemandu. That sounds like desperation, and testing ground for next season. This makes since considering that they have no chance of post season play, and are not good enough to be a spoiler. WR Andre Davis was officially placed on IR and will be out the remainder of the season. Not that the news has any impact.

Cleveland's defense will most likely not see CB Daylon McCutcheon in the lineup. Last weeks game showed just what that does to the secondary. The bright side is that Drew Bledsoe will be the passer for the Bills so that is somewhat offset. There just isn't much else to speak about in terms of the Browns D. They give up 26 points a game, 343 yards -139 on the ground and 203 in the air. They do manage to get picks, but can do very little with them, having gained only 6 points on 14 interceptions. Same thing applies with forced fumbles, 7 but only 6 points to their credit. All this adds up to an overall D ranking of 22nd – 29 against the rush 13 against the pass.

The Bills have something at stake in all of the remaining games. Much like the Bengals they are still in the mathematical hunt for a playoff berth in the incredibly tight AFC. At 6-6 they are tied with Cincinnati and Jacksonville and if the right things happen and they get wins that they should it could be a true race to the finish for those precious Wild Card spots. They Jets, in all likelihood , have one pretty well sewn up. The other one is held by a thin string by Baltimore who has lost their last two and are certainly not a lock against the Giants.

Buffalo has won their last three in spite of Bledsoe's attempts at throwing them away. RB Willis McGahee has gone for over 100 in 4 of his last 6 starts. The last one being just shy at 91. Considering the Dolphins poor rushing D that was somewhat surprising. But Drew did have his best game of the year getting 277 yards, 4 touchdowns and, sit down folks, NO interceptions. Never mind the offense for a moment, it's the defense that should control this game.

Coming in with the 4th overall D and well rounded at 4th against the rush and 9th against the pass and considering the changes in roster for Cleveland, stopping them should not be a huge task. The Bills are +2 in Give-Aways/Take-Aways versus Cleveland's -7, obvious edge to the Bills. They have more at stake and they have not lost a home game since week 4 and have an average win margin of about 16 points. All that as well as an ATS of 8-4-0 doesn't make this a hards pick for a medium sized bet.

My Online Betting Action: The Bills -11


The Philadelphia Eagles (11-1) at The Washington Redskins (4-8)
Against the Spread: Eagles 9-3-0 | Redskins 5-7-0
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET ESPN Night Game
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Eagles -9 -107 Over/Under 37.5u -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Packers -10.5 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Packers -9 -104 to -110
Over/Under 37.5u -110


The Eagles led by the #2 rated QB, Donovan McNabb, handed Green Bay their hats last week, blowing them out 47-17. WR Terrell Owens who was already just under 1000 yards picked up 8 catches for 161 yards and a touchdown. Wasn't the Player of the Game however. That honor was bestowed upon RB Brian Westbrook, who only had 37 yards rushing, but caught 11 passes for 156 yards and 3 touchdowns. WR Todd Pinkston is expected to play, which gives McNabb yet another outlet. For the first time all season, TE L.J. Smith doesn't have some sort of injury asterisk next to his name, More help for Donovan. Although Reno Mahe is doubtful, with the way the Dexter Wynn has played, he may not have a job when he gets healthy anyway.

Philadelphia's defense is statistically average at 12th over all (14th pass and rush). But they get the job done. They one of the better Give-Away/Take-Away margins at +14, but are one of those defenses that are not particularly efficient. Having only 4 defensive scores on 26 take-aways. There again, they kill drives with those forced fumbles and interceptions and they do produce points from the conversions.

Washington newly appointed QB Patrick Ramsey is getting the job done better than last year. But he is still seeing the turf too many times. This is a guy with all the makings of a good quarterback and yet Spurrier and now Gibbs keep putting him in behind an obviously deficient line that cannot keep him safe. In 5 games he has played he has been sacked 14 times. That's nearly half of the number of times he hit the ground in 14 games last season. Gibbs, your back in the NFL, not stock cars. You're also in the NFC and stand no chance of seeing the playoffs. Put Tim Hasselbeck in and save the one thing that you have going for you for next season, when you (or whoever is leading the charge) can build a line that can do something in the form of pass protection. RB Clinton Portis gained 148 yards on the ground, but it was against a Giants team that allows about 138. So take that for what it's worth. The receivers aren't really worth mentioning, when the QB actually has time to throw the ball neither Coles nor Gardner have done anything spectacular. Ok, Gardner has 5 TD's but, save for one game, has gained minimal yardage. Coles is as likely to drop the ball as catch it, so counting on him is like tossing the dice and hoping for snake eyes. But there is the Defense.

The Redskins defense is good, period. 16.8 points a game, 257.4 totals yards – 86.8 rushing 170.7 passing – gives them the overall ranking of #2 with the 3rd best rush and pass D in the league. With Shawn Springs, Sean Taylor, Ryan Clark and Fred Smoot lined up in the secondary they have the ability reek havoc on a passing game. The D may also get a bit of a boost, morally if not physically, with the possible return of LB LaVar Arrington. His impact on the field has to be in question however, considering that he has been sidelined for virtually the entire season with his knee problems. Despite everything that they have going for them on D it seems unlikely that they can do enough to keep the Eagles from another wide margin win.

My Online Betting Action: The Eagles -9


The Detroit Lions (5-7) at The Green Bay Packers (7-5)
Against the Spread: Lions 6-6-0 | Packers 5-7-0
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Packers -9.5 -103 Over/Under 44.5u -110
Current High NFL Betting Line: Packers -11 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line Packers -9.5 -106 to -110
Over/Under 43.5u to 45u -110 to +113

The Lions, after losing a series of close games capped of by week 12's 41-9 routing by the Colts, had to feel like they had finally accomplished something. Since it was against the then 4-7 Cardinals, what it was exactly that they accomplished is anyones guess, but it was at least a moral victory as well as a W. QB Joey Harrington didn't really play that well, going 15 of 27 for 196 yards 1 touchdown and an interception. WR Roy Williams had a bit better of a game than he has of late , snagging 4 for 76 yards and Tai Streets got 3 for 54 yards and a touchdown. But this offense wasn't about the passing game it was all about the running back. Rookie Kevin Jones gained 218 yards, 196 on the ground and 22 in the air. He pulled them out of a couple jams in 3rd down situations and all around played a great game. Let us not forget the other major factor in this win, Jason Hanson. He was 4-4 with 2 from 35+ and 2 from 40+ with a long of 45. When Detroit got him in range he came through in spades.

Detroit's defense had their best game of the season. They picked rookie QB John Navarre 4 times. Kept him under the 50% completion mark (18 of 40) and allowed him just 160 yards. Cb Dre` Bly got two of those interceptions while LB Teddy Lehman and DE James Hall -with a little help from fellow DE Kalimba Edwards- accounted for the other two. With legendary, future Hall of Fame RB, Emmitt Smith (For you Preston) sidelined with a toe injury, the Lions had no trouble manhandling rookie RB Larry Croom, holding him to only 49 yards on 18 carries.

The Packers walked out of Veterans Stadium with their tails tucked firmly between their legs, being embarrassed by the Eagles in a 47-17 thrashing. QB Brett Favre threw 2 interceptions, the first midway in the 1st quarter the second just at the start of the 2nd quarter, which lead to the first scores for the Eagles. Favre's touchdown a game streak ended at 37 furthering his on field depression. Although Ahman Green did play, he was not a factor. Obviously still sore and afraid of being hit in the chest, he managed only 37 yards on 11 carries and only caught 3 passes for minimal yardage. As bad as that was, it was his lack of blocking prowess that hurt at least as much. There is good news to report. Ahman is healthy as is his backup/blocker Najeh Devenport. All the receivers are good to go and with the exception of C Grey Ruegamer, who is expected to play, the entire O line is healthy. This should make things considerably more comfortable for Favre. Plus they are at home and Detroit is just the kind of team you want to meet up with for a rebound win.

The Packers defense is lackluster at best. S Darren Sharper should be quicker this week. CB Ahmad Carroll is coming around, slowly but surely. His counterpart, CB Al Harris is good to harass whoever has the displeasure of lining up across from him. Mark Roman is always a bother running free in the middle. Tackle Grady Jackson is still bothered by his knee but will play. The thing that the Pacs' are going to miss the most this week will be the sidelined Na'il Diggs who was really starting to strut his stuff from th OL position with his speed and agility. All the same they are not playing a juggernaut of an offense in the Detroit Lions.


My Online Betting Action: The Packers -9.5


The rest of my picks are small wagers and will simply be posted as is with who gets my wagering dollars

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Picks of The Week 14

Duty is ours, results are God's
John Quincy Adams

That is not a shameless, without forethought quote. The meaning is obvious and true, if not in context.

The Match-Ups this week, for the most part, mean something. That means hog wild betting with hopes the blind squirrel will find a few acorns.

Starting with best to worst:

The Cincinnati Bengals (6-6) at The New England Patriots (11-1)
Against the Spread: Bengals 5-6-1 | Patriots 9-1-2
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Patriots -10.5 -103 Over/Under 44u +102
Current High NFL Betting Line: Patriots -12 -105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Patriots -11 -110
Over/Under 44u -110

Anyone who reads this drivel knows that rarely is there a post about a Bengals game, this is the exception to the rule.

Cincinnati in the newly able hands of QB Carson Palmer have done better. Note BETTER, not good. Despite having tossed for 382 yards and 3 touchdowns plus the come from behind drive to set them up for the win, he still managed to find a way to make a bone headed plays and give one up to Reed. RB, Rudi Johnson, returned to his former self, gaining just 56 yards on 19 carries. It was against the very tough defense of the Ravens. But the are going up against an even tougher D in the Patriots (never mind the stats, they are better). WR's Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh are phenomenal receivers, no doubt. Then again so is the hodge podge crew that makes up the secondary for the Pats'.

Defensively the Bengals have showed, off and on, some ability. But it is just too inconsistent to expect to play up to the level that is needed to stay afoot with the likes of New England's Offense. Also, have a peak at the Bengals Injury List. Slowing Corey Dillon down is going to be a mighty big obstacle to overcome. Not to mention keeping down the passing game that is tough to stop. With Cincinnati's premier CB, Deltha O'Neil downgraded to questionable with an ankle injury, this task is made even harder.

The Patriots seem to be the team to beat this year. QB Tom Brady just does the right things, nearly all the time. He now has a completely healthy receiving corp and the running back in Corey Dillon that they have been waiting for. How much can be said of the return of WR Deion Branch, who in just 4½ games has amassed 282 yards and 2 touchdowns. This with him playing hurt for two of those games. You could go on and on, but the ATS speaks for itself. This team wins and wins big!

My Online Betting Action: The Patriots -11 Over 44

The Indianapolis Colts (9-3) at The Houston Texans (5-7)
Against the Spread: Colts 8-3-1 | Texans 6-6-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Colts -10 -102 Over/Under 56.5u -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Colts -11.5 -100
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Colts -10.5 -110 to -115
Over/Under 56.5u to 57u -110

The Colts have determined that their best defense is offense. And they do it well. QB Payton Manning is on his way to breaking every quarterbacks record (some of which he has already done, sorry Marino). He has possibly the best two wide-outs to date in Marvin Harrison and Brandon Stokley. Reggie Wayne isn't any slouch either, mind you. RB Edgerrin James is getting the job done well enough for Manning to pull off his play-action, although watching him do it makes you wonder if he really needs a back to set that up. Man is he amazing with that. Plus you have an O line that is protecting him in the pocket, giving him ample time to look through his receivers, much to Harrison's chagrin.

The Colts defense, well when you can put up 45 points a game, it doesn't seem worth mentioning. However, they have come up with some good late game play that has kept teams from making any kind of comeback.

QB David Carr, with WR's Andre Johnson and Jabar Gaffney, started this season as one of the most explosive and underrated offenses in the NFL. Those days seem to have passed. After being pounded by Denver then pummeled by Indy. They managed to stay in the game against an Ahman-less Green Bay, but still lost 16-13. RB Domanick Davis finally had the game that they had been waiting for in the following week against the Titans, rushing for a season high 129 yards. This was his first 100 yarder so far. Again, it was against the Titans who allow about 120 yards a game on the ground, so putting much stock in that is dubious. His next foe, the Jets, put him back were he belongs. A middle of the road back who, in all likelihood, will not see numbers like he produced in his rookie year again. Oh, and they got hammered, 29-7 with Pennington playing at about 70%.

Believe it or not, the Colts out rank them on D. They give up 24.1 a game, to the Colts 21.9, baffling isn't it. They allow about 244 in the air and about 121 on the ground. That puts them near the bottom of the barrel, with a total of around 365 yards a game. They rank 29th overall - 20th against the rush, 28th against the pass - those numbers are probably not going to be elevated after this game.

My Online Betting Action: The Colts -10.5


The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-7) at The San Diego Chargers (9-3)
Against the Spread: Buccaneers 5-5-2 | Chargers 9-1-2
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Chargers -5.5 +101 Over/Under 43u -112
Current High NFL Betting Line: Chargers -6 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Chargers -4.5 –115
Over/Under 43u -110

The Buccaneers have started to play this game like it matters. They are showing signs of the Bucs' we learned to love or hate a couple of seasons ago. To be honest though, you have to look at their opponents over the last few games to put that seeming resurgence into perspective. Against KC in an offense laden battle, they came up with the field goal victory 34-31. That was followed by a loss to Atlanta by 10. A rebound versus the pathetic 49ers bolstered them some as they walked away with a 35-3 win. This was to be followed by a 21-14 loss to a very mediocre Carolina Panthers, who started QB Jake Delhomme with a broken thumb on his throwing arm. They did come up big at home against Atlanta in the rematch, beating them 27-goose egg. However, even though Atlanta is 9-3, they certainly don't play like a 9-3 team. So you have to take that win with a grain of salt.

Tampa's defense, at least against the pass, is a serious threat. The are ranked #1 in that category and 3rd overall. The D against the rush is a horse of a different color. Sitting proudly at 22nd they aren't much of a threat against a decent blocking O line and an RB that can take advantage of it. LaDainian Tomlinson behind one of the best offensive lines in the league can.

San Diego's offense struggled a bit last week against the Broncos. It was a tough game with a lot at stake for both teams. In fact it was just what you would expect in a division rivalry with the division leader being decided by the outcome. For once TE Antonio Gates was not the stud that he has been all season, although he still got in the fray and made some key catches (3rd and 10 to keep a scoring drive alive), just not the big ones and not in the endzone. QB Drew Brees had his least productive game of the season, completing on 14 of his 27 attempts and getting a meager 106 yards. He threw his 1st INT in 194 passes, but it was still only his 4th of the season. This game was the LaDainian Tomlinson - 113 yards and 2 touchdowns against the 7th rushing D - San Diego defensive show.

The Chargers D did all the right things at all the right times. Denver was only able to convert 4 of their 14 3rd down attempts. The Chargers picked QB Jake Plummer's pocket 4 times resulting in 10 points. He was sacked twice and did not throw a touchdown for only the second time this year. Although he did get 278 yards he was only 40% going 16 of 40. RB Reuben Droughns was held to 38 yards on 14 carries but did managed to get into the endzone once. Bottom line, Chargers defense played one of their best games in, arguably, their toughest match-up.

The Chargers should be able to pass against the Bucs', and the rushing game should be as solid as ever.

My Online Betting Action: The Chargers -4.5

Sorry to piecemeal these, but there are my top 3 picks and will be my big bets this week. The rest are soon to follow. I know all three of you are anxiously awaiting my humble opinions.

NFL Pick of the Week Against the Spread - Betting Lines Week 14

The Chicago Bears (5-7) at The Jacksonville Jaguars (6-6)
Against the Spread: Bears 6-6-0 | Jaguars 7-5-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: Jaguars -8 -105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Jaguars -7 -110 to -120
Over/Under 34u to 34.5u -110

Recent Trends

•Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
•CHI is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in Dec.
•CHI is 4-2 ATS in their last six road games.
•Under is 6-1 in JAC last seven games in Dec.
•Under is 8-1 in JAC last nine home games.
•Jags are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 at home.

The Cincinnati Bengals (6-6) at The New England Patriots (11-1)
Against the Spread: Bengals 5-6-1 | Patriots 9-1-2
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Patriots -10.5 -103 Over/Under 44u +102
Current High NFL Betting Line: Patriots -12 -105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Patriots -11 -110
Over/Under 44u -110

Recent Trends

•CIN is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.
•CIN is 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven overall.
•Over is 8-2 in CIN last 10 road games.
•NE is 23-4-3 ATS in their last 30 overall.
•Pats' last three home games have played under.
•Over is 6-3 in the last nine meetings.

The Cleveland Browns (3-9) at The Buffalo Bills (6-6)
Against the Spread: Browns 4-8-0 | Bills 8-4-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bills -12.5 -100
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bills -11 -108 to -110
Over/Under 38u -110
Still OTB at most Online Sportsbooks

Recent Trends

•Browns are 0-5 ATS in their last five overall.
•CLE is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 as a dog.
•Over is 3-0 in CLE last three road games.
•BUF is 7-2 ATS in their last nine overall.
•Over is 5-0 in BUF last five home games.
•Under is 7-2 in BUF last nine games in Dec.

The Indianapolis Colts (9-3) at The Houston Texans (5-7)
Against the Spread: Colts 8-3-1 | Texans 6-6-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Colts -10 -102 Over/Under 56.5u -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Colts -11.5 -100
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Colts -10.5 -110 to -115
Over/Under 56.5u to 57u -110

Recent Trends

•Over is 9-3 in the Colts last 12 overall.
•Indy is 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
•IND ranks 1st in offense with 426.1 yds/gm.
•Under is 8-2 in HOU last 10 games in Dec.
•HOU is 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.
•Under is 2-0 in the last two meetings in HOU.

The New Orleans Saints (4-8) at The Dallas Cowboys (5-7)
Against the Spread: Saints 4-8-0 | Cowboys 5-7-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: Cowboys -8.5 -105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Cowboys -6.5 -120
Over/Under 47.5u to 48u -110

Recent Trends

•NO is 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.
•Under is 5-2 in NO last seven games in Dec.
•Over is 6-2 in NO last eight road games.
•Cowboys are 3-6 ATS in their last nine overall.
•Under is 5-2 in DAL last seven games in Dec.
•Under is 6-3 in the last nine meetings.

The N.Y. Giants (5-7) at The Baltimore Ravens (7-5)
Against the Spread: Giants 5-7-0 | Ravens 8-4-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Ravens -9.5 -105 Over/Under 33u -110
Current High NFL Betting Line: Ravens -11.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Ravens -9.5 -110
Over/Under 33u to 33.5u -110

Recent Trends

•Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
•Giants are on a five game losing streak ATS.
•Under is 8-3 in NYG last 11 overall.
•BAL is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 overall.
•Over is 9-3 in BAL last 12 home games.
•BAL is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.

The Oakland Raiders (4-8) at The Atlanta Falcons (9-3)
Against the Spread: Raiders 4-8-0 | Falcons 5-7-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Falcons -7.5 +103 Over/Under 45.5u -112
Current High NFL Betting Line: Falcons -9 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Falcons -7.5 -110
Over/Under 45.5u to 46u -110

Recent Trends

•OAK is 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.
•OAK is 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 overall.
•Over is 5-1 in OAK last six overall.
•Under is 16-5 in ATL last 21 overall.
•ATL is 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
•Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

The Seattle Seahawks (6-6) at The Minnesota Vikings (7-5)
Against the Spread: Seahawks 4-8-0 | Vikings 7-5-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: Vikings -7.5 +105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Vikings -6.5 -110 to -115
Over/Under 51u to 52u -110 to -113

Recent Trends

•Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
•Over is 8-1 in SEA last nine overall.
•SEA is 1-8 ATS in their last nine overall.
•MIN is 6-3 ATS in their last nine overall.
•Under is 4-0 in MIN last four home games.
•MIN is 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings.

The Miami Dolphins (2-10) at The Denver Broncos (7-5)
Against the Spread: Dolphins 4-8-0 | Broncos 4-5-3
Game Time: 4:05 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Broncos -11 -105 Over/Under 38u -109
Current High NFL Betting Line: Broncos -13 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Broncos -11 -110
Over/Under 38.5u -110

Recent Trends

•MIA is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
•Over is 7-0 in MIA last seven overall.
•MIA is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games in Dec.
•Under is 7-2-2 in Broncos last 11 overall.
•Under is 3-0 in DEN last three games in Dec.
•Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.

The N.Y. Jets (9-3) at The Pittsburgh Steelers (11-1)
Against the Spread: Jets 7-4-1 | Steelers 7-4-1
Game Time: 4:05 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Steelers -5.5 -111 Over/Under 35.5u -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Steelers -7 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Steelers -5.5 -115
Over/Under 35.5u to 36u -104 to -110

Recent Trends

•Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
•NYJ are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in Dec.
•Under is 7-3 in NYJ last 10 overall.
•Steelers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 overall.
•Under is 5-0 in PIT last five overall.
•PIT is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.

The Detroit Lions (5-7) at The Green Bay Packers (7-5)
Against the Spread: Lions 6-6-0 | Packers 5-7-0
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Packers -9.5 -103 Over/Under 44.5u -110
Current High NFL Betting Line: Packers -11 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line Packers -9.5 -106 to -110
Over/Under 43.5u to 45u -110 to +113

Recent Trends

•Over is 4-2 in the last six meetings.
•DET is 5-2 ATS in their last seven on the road.
•DET is 3-0 ATS in their last three games in Dec.
•Over is 7-1 in the Packers last eight overall.
•Packers are 2-4 ATS in their last six home games.
•GB is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings at home.

The San Fransisco 49ers (1-11) at The Arizona Cardinals (4-8)
Against the Spread: 49ers 5-7-0 | Cardinals 6-6-0
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Cardinals -6 -105 Over/Under 37u -112
Current High NFL Betting Line: Cardinals -8 –110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Cardinals -5.5 -110
Over/Under 37u -110

Recent Trends

•SF is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.
•49ers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 overall.
•Under is 4-2 in SF last six overall.
•Over is 7-2 in ARI last nine overall.
•ARI is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.
•Under is 3-0 in the last three meetings in ARI.

The St. Louis Rams (6-6) at The Carolina Panthers (5-7)
Against the Spread: Rams 3-8-1 | Panthers 7-5-0
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: Panthers -7.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Panthers -6.5 –110
Over/Under 44u -110

Recent Trends

•Over is 3-0 in the last three meetings.
•Over is 8-3 in the Rams last 11 overall.
•STL is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in Dec.
•Over is 5-1 in CAR last six overall.
•CAR is 5-1 ATS in their last six overall.
•CAR is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-7) at The San Diego Chargers (9-3)
Against the Spread: Buccaneers 5-5-2 | Chargers 9-1-2
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Chargers -5.5 +101 Over/Under 43u -112
Current High NFL Betting Line: Chargers -6 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Chargers -4.5 –115
Over/Under 43u -110

Recent Trends

•Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
•Under is 17-6 in TB last 23 overall.
•TB is 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine road games.
•SD is 10-1-2 ATS in their last 13 overall.
•Over is 9-2 in SD last 11 home games.
•SD is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

The Philadelphia Eagles (11-1) at The Washington Redskins (4-8)
Against the Spread: Eagles 9-3-0 | Redskins 5-7-0
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET ESPN Night Game
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Eagles -9 -107 Over/Under 37.5u -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Eagles -10.5 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Eagles -9 -104 to -110
Over/Under 37.5u -110

Recent Trends

•PHI is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
•Under is 8-3 in PHI last 11 overall.
•Eagles are 9-3 ATS so far this season.
•Under is 9-3 in WAS last 12 overall.
•WAS is 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
•Under is 6-3-1 in the last 10 meetings.

The Kansas City Chiefs (4-8) at The Tennessee Titans (4-8)
Against the Spread: Chiefs 4-8-0 | Titans 4-8-0
Game Time: Monday 9:00 PM ET ABC Monday Night Football
Opening NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: Titans -2 -102 to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Titans -2 -102 to -110
Over/Under 52u -110
Still OTB at most Online Sportsbooks And is there any question why...?

Recent Trends

•KC is 1-4 ATS in their last five overall.
•Over is 7-2 in KC last nine road games.
•Over is 12-3 in KC last 15 games in Dec.
•TEN is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 overall.
•Over is 5-1 in TEN last six games in Dec.
•Over is 6-3 in the last nine meetings.

NFL Against the Spread – Cincinnati Bengals Special Report

The Cincinnati Bengals have played good defensive and offensive ball, just not during the same game.

The Bengals defense was good against the Pittsburgh Steelers. They were the first team to make rookie Ben Roethlisberger look like a rookie, putting him on his hindquarters 7 times costing him 54 yards. This was the most pressure that young Ben has seen in his star studded debut. But Cincinnati's rookie, Carson Palmer, fared much worse, as their seemingly inept offense failed to produce a single point in the last 34 minutes of play. This was exacerbated by very rookie mistakes at quarter back.

The first was made about mid way through the second quarter when Palmer, taking the snap in shotgun formation from the Bengals 4, looked up receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh, who was in obvious triple coverage. Apparently unaware of what the consequences of throwing it to him anyway may be, Carson delivered a quick strike into the awaiting arms of linebacker, James Farrior. Farrior, completely aware of the situation, returned the interception the 14 yards needed for the touchdown.

Strike One.

With just over 3 minutes to play Palmer was sacked on 1-10 from Cincinnati's 9 yard line for a 1 yard loss. But that wasn't the end. In keeping with what he had already established as the norm, Palmer, again from shotgun, got the snap and then proceeded to through the ball away when the pressure came. The problem was, he was still in the pocket and got called for his third intentional grounding of the half. This gave the Steelers the 2 point safety and the ball back, stifling any hopes the Bengals may have been entertaining about a come from behind victory.

Strikes Two and Three.

This did have some positive effects however.

For the first time since taking over as Head Coach, Marvin Lewis was visibly shaken. This was furthered evidenced by his verbal outrage, made publicly, about the poor play of his offense. Bengal's right tackle, Willie Anderson, got to the heart of the problem with his statement that, “To win games like this and to beat teams like this, football has to be your life. And offensively, it's really not our life. We're putting the work in, but it's the extra stuff you have to do ... We let (Lewis) down.” This was something from the heart, made by a player who has not been shy with his opinions about the coaching staff in his 9 years as a Bengal.

So we fast forward to November 28th and a meeting with long time rivals, The Cleveland Browns.

Carson Palmer took his second snap of the game and, throwing into well covered territory, tried to hit Houshmandzadeh for a 21 yard pass. Once again that plan went awry when conerback, Anthony Henry, decided he was in better position for the catch. Lewis, along with about 60,000 fans, had the sinking feeling that it was going to be another long day for the offense. Could they have been more wrong?

What followed can only be described as the single most spectacular display of offense that this fan has ever witnessed. In the second highest scoring game in NFL history the Browns Kelly Holcomb threw for 413 yards, 5 touchdowns and lost! Palmer's 251 yards on 22 completions looked downright pathetic by comparison. He did manage to find the endzone on four occasions but also found the opponents hands a good target 3 too many times. The standout for Cincinnati in this “Made for Madden” game was the performance of running back, Rudi Johnson.

Johnson averaged over 120 yards a game in his first six as the featured back (2003). This led Bengals fans everywhere to believe that with him, Corey Dillon could go away and never be thought of again. That belief was furthered by the drafting of Chris Perry out of Michigan (Wolverines), who had all the earmarks of a great all purpose back. Those beliefs were dashed against the rocks as Perry saw injury lead to injury and Johnson not producing numbers to solidify him as the back of the future in Cincinnati. That was prior to the Cleveland game.

After only three 100+ rushing games, Johnson carried the rock 26 times for 202 yards. He averaged nearly 8 yards a carry and saw the endzone twice. Does that mean that he is the back of the future for Cincinnati? Time will only tell, but thoughts are leaning towards a no.

The problem, if it's not already obvious, in this game was the utter lack of defense in the secondary. Again, Holcomb threw for 413 yards and 5 touchdowns. Brown's RB, William Green, may not have had a good day, gaining only 75 yards on 15 carries, but did find the redzone once. With the passing game clicking like it was, no one cared that they weren't very effective on the ground. Antonio Bryant had 8 grabs for 131 yards and 2 touchdowns, Dennis Northcutt snagged 5 for 87 yards, and the standout of the day, TE Steve Heiden, eclipsed everything he had done to date getting 7 catches for 82 yards and 3 touchdowns.

The offense still didn't mesh however. Palmer still threw 3 interceptions, all of which were converted into points. But that really wasn't the heart of the problem in this game, it was the innumerable missed tackles and broken coverages. This by a defense that in weeks prior had looked like the next big thing.

Repeat, good defense, good offense, just not during the same game.

Jumping ahead to Cincinnati versus Baltimore.

This seemed like an open and shut case for young Palmer and crew, and yet it wasn't. There were things that happened in the Cleveland game the Carson carried onto the field Sunday. He discovered how to look off a safety. This is what made Staubach, Montana, Marino, and dare I say it Elway, the players that they were. They all had one thing in common, they could read defenses and they could look off coverage. Palmer got a taste of what success that can bring you against Cleveland. He took that knowledge with him to Baltimore were he made a concerted effort to apply his newly acquired skill. It seemed to pay off.

With 80% of his passes completed, he hit his receivers, namely Chad Johnson and T.J Houshmandzadeh, for 382 yards and 3 touchdowns. His only mistake was an over thrown ball that found it's way into to the hands of Ravens safety Ed Reed. Does this mean that he is the next Montana or Marino? Doubtful, but it does mean that he his learning how the game is played and more importantly how to do the things that you have to if you hope to have success as a quarterback in the NFL.

As good as the offense played, it was the emergence of the defense through a whole game that made the victory possible. Finally both parts worked on the same day.

Lewis smiled during his press conference. Houshmandzadeh smiled in the locker room. Johnson smiled on his way to the bank. And Willie, well Willie just smiled.

Jerry Rice Does it Again

Sports doen't build great character, it reveals it.

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Rice sets his 35th NFL record, this one for combined yards
(12-06) 18:29 PST SEATTLE (AP)

Jerry Rice became the NFL's career leader in combined net yards Monday night, catching a 27-yard touchdown pass from Seattle quarterback Matt Hasselbeck to boost his 20-year total to 23,351 yards.

It was the 35th NFL record for Rice, and the score put the Seahawks up 7-0 over Dallas. Fans chanted "Jerry, Jerry, Jerry" as he ran to the sideline.

The 42-year-old Rice went into the game needing seven yards -- receiving, rushing or on a kick return -- to pass Brian Mitchell's record of 23,330 yards.

Rice, who began his career with San Francisco in 1985, already is the NFL's all-time leader in receptions, yards receiving and touchdowns. His 14 seasons with at least 1,000 yards receiving and 75 100-yard receiving games also are NFL records.

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NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Monday Night Football

After a solid start to the weekend that had me sitting at 2-0-1 I had to tempt fate and re-examine what I already knew to be a troublesome game.

Pittsburgh V Jacksonville.

Well now I'm 2-1-1, but thankfully hit on my two big wagers (Pats' and Bills) pushed on a medium wager and only lost a small wager.

Lesson learned!

Tonight, Nada...

I didn't like this game from the get go.


The Dallas Cowboys (4-7) at The Seattle Seahawks (6-5)
Against the Spread: Cowboys 4-7-0 | Seahawks 4-7-1
Game Time: Monday 9:00 PM ET ABC Monday Night Football
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Seahawks -6 Over/Under 42.5 -103
Current High NFL Betting Line: Seahawks -8 -120
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Seahawks -7 -100 to -110
Over/Under 42.5u to 43.5u -110

Seattle has all the material to hand a very shoddy looking Dallas Sowboys a thorough thrashing and somewhat solidify their lead in the NFC West. But with the NFC so wide open, a win gets Dallas right back into the mathematical equation. They would then be tied for second place in the East, and actually have a shot at a wild-card berth.

RB Shaun Alexander has the Seahawks running game ranked at 6th and should see continued success against the mid-pack run D of Dallas (14th). WR Darrell Jackson looks like he is TRYING to lose his starting spot, dropping key passes in all of the last 4 games. Then again, he may find the handle and have a good night against a below average pass D (20th). QB Matt Hasselbeck looked like the Chosen One last year, and by all rights, started the season off in like fashion. Since week 4 however, his numbers have continued to slip leaving him with pathetic rating of 72.6 and a completion percentage just north of 50%. Part of that has been poor play by his wide-outs, but not all of it.

Coach Mike Holmgren has got to be a bit worried as well. Seeing that his front office has put a lot of faith and responsibility in his hands (per his request), not to mention a few $'s, and now there are rumors that he is on the proverbial “Hot Seat”.

Seattle's defense is lacking to say the least. The addition of Defensive Coordinator, Ray Rhodes, was supposed to increase the production of the D. So far that has not gone as planned. CB Marcus Trufant has been burned numerous times and has only banked 3 INT's. On the other side Ken Lucas has seen a bit more success with his 5 interceptions, but has also been cooked like a goose on more than one occasion. With only 25 sacks they don't pose a serious threat to O lines trying to protect their QB's. The Seahawks run stopping ability is a little better, but is still letting backs get 100+ on them.

Dallas showed a little spark of life, particularly on the ground, against Chicago on Turkeyday. That was against Chicago, a team that allows about 140 yards a game on the ground. Just the same, rookie RB Julius Jones did look good in his second game as an NFL back. WR Keyshawn Johnson continues to impress this fan, as he is still willing to stretch out across the middle to get the catch. Alligator Arms is a foreign phrase to that 9 year vet. A whole lot can be said about Keyshawn, afraid isn't one of them. AARP qualifying QB Vinny Testaverde, looks great for about a quarter and a half, then oldtimers creeps in and he forgets what he's doing. In all fairness to Vinny, he was promised by Parcells that he would not have to worry about getting hit, that he would get protection up front. Parcells has yet to deliver on that one. TE Jason Whitten has been the only other real threat that the Cowboys have shown in the passing game and as good as he may be, he certainly isn't a Gates or Gonzalez.

Defensively, what happened? This was supposed to be the defense that all others strive to achieve. If allowing 26 points on 330+ yards, having the fewest tackles and only 14 take-aways is what you're are looking for, you've found your role model. Even though they are statistically “middle of the road” (16th), they really don't play like that. Their opponents have just been easy on them, with only 2 teams running the score up (Vikings and Eagles).

Bottom line, this game is scary from a handicappers perspective.

Seattle should win but expecting them to cover 7 is a tall order.
Dallas could win, but expecting them not to lose by more than 7 is equally challenging.

The Over at 42.5 may not be a complete waste of money...

My Online Betting Action: None

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting ESPN Sunday Night Football

The Pittsburgh Steelers (10-1) at The Jacksonville Jaguars (6-5)
Against the Spread: Steelers 7-3-1 | Jaguars 6-5-0
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET ESPN Sunday Night Football
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Steelers -3 -103 Over/Under 35u -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Steelers -3.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Steelers -3 -110 to -115
Over/Under 35u -110

At First glance this game just looked too dangerous for action. But, after a closer examination, the Steelers look good for a smallish wager.

QB Ben Roethlisberger showed some “rookieness” in the last couple of games but kept it together enough for Pittsburgh to get the wins. More importantly was how he did sans his favorite target, WR Plaxico Burress, as well as RB Duce Staley. Tonight will see the return of Staley, and maybe(?!) Burress. RB Jerome Bettis has proven that can still be a problem for defenses and with Staley back he won’t have to work quite as much.

The Steelers defense is solid to say the least, allowing only 15 points a game. They are in the top 3 in pass defense, with a bunch of takeaways vs. very few giveaways (+12) with a good chunk of those turned directly into touchdowns (3 on INT’s, 4 on fumbles). When it comes to the run D there is no better. Allowing only about 79 yards a game on the ground this will be a critical ingredient to this match-up.

Jacksonville QB Byron Leftwich's performance in his return to the starting line-up last week was unremarkable. He ended the day 19 of 34 for 235 yards and a TD. RB Fred Taylor had more success, gaining 147 yards on 22 carries, but was kept out of the endzone. This was against a very poor defense in the Vikings. The Jaguars will need to markedly improve in those areas if they hope to stay in this game for 4 quarters.

On the other side of the ball however, Jacksonville can stand a little taller. They have the ability to slow down the ground game and are moderately effective against the pass. The question marks here are going to be can they contain Staley and Bettis, and force Roethlisberger into a game where he has to throw to win? That they gave up 100+ to the very weak rushing game of Minnesota and to the Chris Brown-less Titans shouldn't have them feeling very comfortable about their ability to stop the assault that they will face against Pittsburgh.

Two possible ways on this game, the Under and the Steelers.

My Online Betting Action: The Steelers -3

Anna Kournikova poses for NFL Pick of the Week

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Picks of The Week 13

Fully expecting to grind out a good old healthy dose of rambling statistics and analysis' I fired up my browsers and various other electronic tools, opened a new text document and started to type. After about 30 min. of doing just that I realized how tough this weekend was going to be too handicap.

Trying to bang out a good post in a sitting just wasn't going to happen. With the way things are sitting now there are only a few games that I think have wagering potential and even those need more scrutiny before getting my stamp of approval, or my $$$.

So there is my lame excuse for not having this done and up last-night.

BTW, someone please tell me if I'm missing something obvious this weekend.

Is it just me or do the Eagles seem like too good of a pick to be true? Same question with Minnesota.


The Buffalo Bills (5-6) at The Miami Dolphins (2-9)
Against the Spread: Bills 7-4-0 | Dolphins 4-7-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Bills -3.5 -115 Over/Under 35.5 -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bills -4 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bills -3 -130
Over/Under 34.5u -110


The Bills have put together a facsimile of an offense in spite of QB Drew Bledsoe's sub par performance (13 TD's 14 INT's). RB Willis McGahee has rushed for a 100+ yards in 5 of his 6 games as the featured back. He has arguably been the sole reason for the five W's Buffalo has this season. They have a good defense, but it isn't a points producing D. Heaven knows that having a QB that plays catch with the opposing team hasn't gotten it done. When McGahee gets in the 100+ range the Bills win ball games. That sounds like a truism applicable to any team in the NFL, but it is a statistical fact in Buffalo's case.

Buffalo's defense does get the job done, make no mistake. They are ranked 3rd overall and are pretty well balanced at 4th and 7th against the rush and pass, respectively. Again it's worth noting that although they are solid they don't score points, having only 2 to their credit.

So the question is then boiled down to a pretty simple one. Can the O line do the job against the Dolphins and open things up for McGahee?

Easier said than done? Miami has the 6th ranked overall defense. That number is a bit misleading however, as they are only 29th against the rush. The Dolphins do have a couple of the best corners in the league with Patrick Surtain and Sam Madison. Their safeties, Arturo Freeman and Sammy Knight, are no slouches either. These guys, along with a solid D line, can shut down a passing game. At least on paper they look good right up to the point of the W's. Looking at their Win/Loss columns tells a bit of a different picture. Offensive Nightmare.

The Dolphins extraordinary losses this season has cost them dearly when it comes to the offense. Wanny stepping down and Jim Bates being named as interim Head Coach has done very little to change the the overall problems that Miami has. QB Jay Fiedler has to be privately sighing in relief that he has been placed on IR for the rest of the season (wonder if he got a congratulatory phone call from Wanny). Meanwhile QB A.J. Feeley better hope his butt isn't too sore, he may very well be spending a good portion of the game on it.

Bills passing ineptitude is a wash versus the complete offensive ineptitude of the Dolphins. Bills took their first meeting by 7, no reason to think that they can't hold their own in this one as well.

There is also the fact that with an ATS of 7-4 and only giving 3 pts. It's not a stretch to go with the Bills on that basis alone.

My Online Betting Action: The Bills -3


The Houston Texans (5-6) at The N.Y. Jets (8-3)
Against the Spread: Texans 6-5-0 | Jets 6-4-1
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: Jets -8 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Jets -7 -105 to -110
Over/Under 41u -110

Going to put my friend and fellow Sports Blogger Brian Bassett of The NY Jets Blog on the spot this week. I really like the Jets and think that QB Chad Pennington has the brains and talent to do great things if he can stay healthy and WR's Justin McCariens and Santana Moss continue to live up to expectations.

Herm Edwards is a good defensive minded Head Coach, but there are times when his decision making has been questionable offensively. With Defensive Rookie of the Year hopeful, ML Jonathan Vilma leading the way, the Jets D has been an effective, if seemingly quiet, unit.

The Texans have been streaky, but in a scary way, not in the New Orleans fashion. With a lot of young talent on both sides of the ball, they have the potential to be a force in seasons to come. Even though this year is over for them they are highly unlikely to lay down, wanting to be a spoiler and prove a point through the rest of the season. This match-up has all the ear marks of just that kind of game.

7 points just seems too high a price to pay for the Jets.

Brian, help me out here and elaborate...


The New England Patriots (10-1) at The Cleveland Browns (3-8)
Against the Spread: Patriots 8-1-2 | Browns 4-7-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Patriots -7.5 -107 Over/Under 41.5u -101
Current High NFL Betting Line: Patriots -12 -105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Patriots -7.5 -110
Over/Under 39.5u to 41.5u -110

The Patriots are the best team in the NFL today. Rarely will comments of that nature come from me, but they have earned it. It can be said not because of their play in any one area, but rather because of the ability to adapt to situations, a superior coaching staff, namely Belichick and Crennel, and their play in all areas of the game. QB Tom Brady doesn't have a stellar completion percentage, nor an elite level QB Rating, but he is a leader who is smart on the field. Here is a QB that has thrown 18 TD's to his 8 INT's which means he doesn't do dumb stuff. RB Corey Dillon has been an outstanding asset to this team, giving them the ability to eat up clock and keep even the best of defenses questioning themselves, just ask Ray Lewis or Ed Reed of Baltimore. WR Deion Branch's return has been an obvious boost to their passing game.

New England has injuries through-out the secondary and are down to using WR's as package guys to make up for it. Yet they have 14 interceptions, 14 forced fumbles and a staggering 34 sacks (second in the NFL) to their credit. Opponents have to study more against them than they do against any other defense they face. This is primarily due to the fact that every game they come out on the field with a new way to disguise their defensive schemes. And they disguise them well. They made the best defense in the NFL (Ravens) look second best!

The Browns are in complete disarray both on the field and in the office. Scrambling to decide what to do at the QB position along with their front office woes has got to be factor in every game from here on out. Their “could have been” stud WR Andre Davis, who has been out of commission for the last several weeks, gave the Browns his walking papers. Rookie QB Luke McCown will get his NFL debut in the worst possible situation when he faces off against the Pat's pass rush. Never mind the fact that he reminds you of one David Klingler, drafted by Cincinnati some years ago, and who was a total bust. You know that look, deer in the headlights...

Oh yeah, almost forgot... they will also have a Rookie head coach, Terry Robiskie leading the charge.

Defensively what's really to be said. They gave up 58 points last week. 58! To the Bengals! With Carson Palmer and Rudi Johnson! Sorry about the “!”'s but what the heck... See my write-up about this game and the overall state of the Bengals Nation later this weekend over on another friend and Sports Blogger, Tom Schaller's Bronczilla.

Back to the point, they can't stop much of anything, at 26th against the rush and 14th against the pass they don't scare a powerhouse like that of they Patriots (never mind Belichick's remark about them being the best 3-8 team in the NFL). Additionally they have been hammered by good teams and it's been close against mediocre to bad teams (like Dallas or Washington). There is the exception which was the Browns V Bengals first meeting this season in which Cleveland walked away with a victory by 17 points

None of this really matters, this game seems an easy pick even with a 10pt. Spread. Cleveland just doesn't have what it takes this season and New England, barring anything major, is Super-Bowl Bound.


My Online Betting Action: The Patriots -8



The Denver Broncos (7-4) at The San Diego Chargers (8-3)
Against the Spread: Broncos 4-5-2 | Chargers 9-1-1
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Chargers -2.5 -118 Over/Under 47u -113
Current High NFL Betting Line: Chargers -3 -100 to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Chargers -2.5 -110
Over/Under 47u to 48u -110


The Chargers have made intelligent sports writers sound like broken records and less than intelligent ones sound like morons. QB Drew Brees, in typical contract year style, is out performing any and all expectations. He has a QB rating of 108, completion percentage of 65.8, and more amazingly than those numbers, has only 3 picks versus his 21 passing TD's. Along with TE Antonio Gates, who is second only to T.O. in receiving touchdowns, they have this offense sitting at #6 passing and are just a notch below the Colts in average points per game (29). RB LaDainian Tomlinson is a workhorse and even though his average per carry isn't very good (3.8yds) he gets the job done when needed. Being one of the best in 3rd down situations and the second highest scoring RB in the NFL (11 TD's. Priest is #1 w/14).

Defense is another matter altogether though.

San Diego has talent defensively, and can stop the rushing game cold. Their biggest issue is against the pass. This is only going to be compounded by the loss of CB Sammy Davis who fractured his leg last week in S.D.'s win over KC. The Chargers have subsequently signed CB Robb Butler to their active roster, and will be starting youngster Drayton Florence over on the right side. This is not the extent of their issues in the secondary by any means. Already lacking depth at the safety position, with only Terrence Kiel and Jerry Wilson producing numbers, having Wilson dinged up isn't going to help. Luckily they are at home and playing the haphazard offense of the Denver Broncos.

QB Jake Plummer is one of those players that makes you wonder who is going to show up at game-time. The one that throws for 400+ yards and 3 int's or the one that throws for 200+ yards and 4 td's. The difference with Plummer is that you may get both during any one game. Just look at what happened to them at home, in the snow, against the Raiders. Jake threw for 240+ yards and a TD, but also threw a pick (I know Tom, it was batted at the line) in the fourth quarter that resulted in an 11 point lead for Oakland. His problems could be exacerbated by the injuries to WR's Ashley Lelie and Rod Smith as well as RB Reuben Droughns.

Bottom line, both of these teams have a lot at stake in this game. If Denver can get the win they take over as AFC West leaders with a 4-1 divisional record and 2 wins over San Diego. But the stakes are equally as high for the Chargers, who looked like they were out of the playoff picture entirely a week ago. If they get the victory, they take a 2 game lead in the division, and leave Denver in the position of having other teams determine their post season hopes.

All that being said San Diego is the better team. They have been more consistent, have more talent in the RB and QB positions, and Antonio Gates has big play making ability the likes of which hasn't been seen in San Diego since the days of Air Coryell. Inconsistent play, lack of discipline and no stand out play-makers (argue about Lelie all you want) has been the order of the day in Denver.

Just looking at the ATS, at 4-5-2 Denver is not a good bet. The Chargers with the best ATS (9-1-1) are. With what's at stake and potentially Brees' future on the line, my money goes to the Chargers.

My Online Betting Action: The Chargers -3

Let the flaming begin...

That's it for Sunday. Next stop, Monday Night Football.

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting

Forgive me in advance for yet another weak post, work has just been overwhelming this week and has kept me away from real life. Ya know... FOOTBALL!

A couple of quick notes, more to my self than to you my loyal readers reader (to whom I must apologize for me lack of worthiness this week).

Perfect betting weekend! 6-0 including the Money Line wager on The Chargers.

Speaking of the Chargers, has a tight-end ever gotten a league MVP before. Winslow maybe? Do they just grow them right every now and again down their? I mean Antonio Gates, what the heck, is he human?

By the way the answer is yes and no. In the pre or post AFL-NFL era, no. During the AFL-NFL era, yes... sort of.

In 1965 both the AP and UP named the obvious choice, Hall of Famer Jim Brown. However, another equally recognized organization, the Maxwell Club of Philadelphia, gave E/TE/WR (Iron Man days) Pete Retzlaff - who, not surprisingly, played for Philadelphia - that honor for the NFL.

Anyway...

For the few that follow my ramblings (thank you, you make it worth-while), despite my philippic words about the current course of the NFL, things are starting to fall into place. With week 11's 5-2-1, I'm now in the black and feeling a bit more confident in my analysis of the match-ups and were my wagers go.

Although I would love to pound out a big one right now, I fear that the brain cell I have left (I did mention I spent 5 years in Vegas right?!) will fail me tonight. So instead I leave you with what I found to be yet another example of the ridiculousness that is political correctness today:

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NFL tells Roethlisberger Jesus must go!

Associated Press
Dec. 2, 2004 08:49 AM

PITTSBURGH - The National Football League is telling Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger that he can't have the letters PFJ - meaning play for Jesus - on his shoes.

The NFL told Roethlisberger to remove the initials and the number 40 - in honor of the late Arizona Cardinals safety Pat Tillman, who was killed in Afghanistan - or else he'd face a $5,000 fine.

The NFL doesn't permit players to display personal messages on uniforms.

Roethlisberger says he doesn't make the rules and doesn't want to break them. However, he says he'll still carry the message in Sunday's game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, only it might not be as visible.

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Hey Ben, have some Cojones. Screw the NFL and their damn fine! Wear PFJ across the front of your helmet and #40 on the back. You can afford 5k...

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Tagliabue Puts the “U” in StUpid


NFL Commissioner Paul Tagliabue praised Tillman as a hero and said that he "...personified the best values of America...Like other men and women protecting our freedom around the globe, he made the ultimate sacrifice and gave his life for his country."

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It's an insult to the donkey to call Tagliabue a jackass...

This weekends NFL Picks of The Week (shameless self-promotion) will be up tomorrow evening. Thanks for dropping by my little blip on the blog radar.

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Monday Night Football

The St. Louis Rams (5-5) at The Green Bay Packers (6-4)
Against the Spread: Rams 3-6-1 | Packers 4-6-0
Game Time: Monday 9:00 PM ET ABC Monday Night Football
Opening NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: Packers -7 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Packers -6 -110
Over/Under 51u to 51.5u -110

St. Louis had a good first half against the Buffalo defense, but that was it. QB Marc Bulger ended the day 27 of 45 and got picked 3 times. Mighty Martz and his receivers resorted to name calling and accusing the backs of trying to “hurt” them. This is football, right? RB Marshall Faulk was held to 6 yards and because they were playing from behind most of the game, only carried a handful of times. WR Isaac Bruce was well contained getting only a few catches for about 60 yards. Although his brother in arms, Tory Holt fared better (90yds and a td) he was hurt late in the game and is listed as questionable for Monday night.

All the same, the Rams can be very explosive on offense and the defense of Green Bay is tenuous at best, particularly in the secondary. Faulk should bounce back just fine, and have better than single digit numbers. The injury to Holt doesn't take this team out of contention with ample talent in Bruce as well as Dane Looker. Moving the ball down field is probably not going to be a big issue. Stopping their opponent might be.

The Packers are on a roll and QB Brett Favre knows they have to stay on it. With the Vikings going to 7-4, Green Bay, much like San Diego in the West, has to have a win just to keep up in the NFC North. With wide receivers like Javon Walker, Donald Driver and in the clutch, Robert Ferguson, to throw to it wouldn't seem like an overwhelming task. Particularly against one of the weaker pass defenders like that of the Rams. The problem here is that with backs Ahman Green and Najeh Davenport as huge questions, is Tony Fisher going to be enough threat? Even though St. Louis has one of the worst rushing D's in the league, Green Bay has to proffer up some semblance of a real ground game to allow Favre to put in motion the play-action. The Packers also have to stop the Rams at least once during the game.

Green Bay's better overall defensively but have been scored on readily by strong passing offenses. The Vikings hit them for 34 points without Moss a couple weeks ago and the Colts jammed 45 down their throat when they met early in the season. For that matter Tennessee's mediocre passing game looked great against them. Cornerback Ahmad Carroll has been improving and his wing man, Al Harris, has started to be a bother to wideouts. A couple of things that may help this situation will be the possible return to full duty of safety Darren Sharper and corner Michael Hawthorne. Sharper has seen a little action over the past two games in the dime package, but hasn't started since week 7. Hawthorne hasn't started since week 5 so having him back in the rotation and relatively healthy, should boost the secondaries confidence.

There's also a little added incentive for the Packers, they got embarrassed in their last MNF game.

My Online Betting Action: The Packers -6

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting ESPN Sunday Night Football

The Oakland Raiders (3-7) at The Denver Broncos (7-3)
Against the Spread: Rams 3-6-1 | Packers 4-6-0
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET ESPN Sunday Night Football
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Broncos -10.5 -108 Over/Under 45.5u +109
Current High NFL Betting Line: Broncos -11.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Broncos -13 -105
Over/Under 42.5u to 43u -110

Tonight’s game is out of bounds this week.

The Broncos are pretty solid for the win but covering an 11.5 to 12 point spread is a whole other matter. QB Jake Plummer just has not been consistent enough for faith that he can lead Denver to a 14 point victory, even against the dismal defense of the Oakland Raiders.

By the same token, expecting Oakland to keep the game within shouting distance is not much better an option. With no running game to speak of and with RB Tyrone Wheatley a big question mark to even get carries, the scoring pretty much lies in the hands of an even less proven commodity, QB Kerry Collins. He is as likely to throw interceptions as touchdowns.

An argument could be made that the Over at 42.5 isn’t a complete waste of money.

My Online Betting Action: None


Still waiting to decide on Monday Night’s game to see what the RB status is with Ahman Green and Najeh Davenport both questionable.

This is for having the post up so late, site was having trouble and I couldn't get logged in:

Anna ponders the outcome of MNF

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Week 12 Picks of the Week

Early Games

The Baltimore Ravens (7-3) at The New England Patriots (9-1)
Against the Spread: Ravens 8-2-0 | Patriots 7-1-2
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: Patriots -8 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Patriots -7 -108 to -115
Over/Under 35.5u -110

Even though Ray Lewis started the season a little off kilter, he has pounded his way back into the leadership role. With his 97 tackles, he leads not just with words but by example and his comrades have followed. The Baltimore Ravens have one of the most points producing defenses in the NFL. They have manged to convert 4 of their 14 interceptions into 24 points and have gained another 30 points on 9 forced fumbles. It's a good thing too, because they are certainly not a powerhouse offense.

The Raven's QB, Kyle Boller, had to remind his teammates at half-time last week that there still was hope. This was after they were held scoreless by the very mediocre defense of the Cowboys. Their already anemic offense is going to be without RB Jamal Lewis. Considering that he accounts for 1/3 of Baltimore's 15 offensive touchdowns, this is an injury that they can ill afford. Boller has 7 int's to go with his 9 passing touchdowns and his entire receiving group comes in with only 5 scores to their credit. Those numbers don't exactly put the fear of God in opponents hearts.

The New England Patriots, by contrast, got a boost to their offense with the return of WR Deion Branch. With his return they have gained yet another fantastic route runner with extremely good hands and reliability. QB Tom Brady couldn't be happier, as he now has what is arguably the best receiving corps in the league today. Their biggest problem in that area is who to name as the #1 wide-out. New England's RB, Corey Dillon, has proven to be everything they were hoping for, and then some. And if that wasn't enough they have the coaching prowess of Bill Belichick to get them out of some tough spots with losses on the defensive side of the ball.

The Patriots lost CB Ty Law in the opening moments of their single loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. This was just one game removed from losing his counter part Tyrone Poole. Belichick, undaunted, began studying even more than his norm and with the help defensive coordinator, Romeo Crennel, devised schemes to disguise the weakness that they have in the secondary. To date it has done very well. Despite the missing starters, New England has allowed an average of only 17 points a game and has 13 picks. This with a rookie free agent and nickel and dime (no pun intended) backs rotating in as starters and using a WR, Troy Brown, for nickel and dime situations (again no pun intended). With Asante Samuel and Randall Gay both banged up Belichick is going to have to work a little more of his voodoo this week to keep the secondary looking like a secondary.

My Online Betting Action: The Patriots -7

That's it until Mondays game, but I'll give you a hint... Say Cheese!

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Week 12 Picks of the Week

Last weekends run of good luck by the favorites was nice. Looking for it to continue should be done cautiously. At least that is how it appears from this seat.

Just a couple of games that will be getting action from me, particularly since sobering after my 4 day run of flu meds...

The Philadelphia Eagles (9-1) at The N.Y. Giants (5-5)
Against the Spread: Eagles 7-3-0 | Giants 5-5-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Eagles -7 -109 37.5u -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Eagles -7.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Eagles -7 -105 to -115
Over/Under 37.5u -110

The Eagles have been solid ATS all season. This is a tough call mainly due to the fact that they may struggle getting good field position with the injuries to PR Reno Mahe and Safety J.R. Reed. They will probably feel the sting from Reed's absence more at the KR spot than as a D-back. RB Brian Westbrook got into the mix last week catching two passes for TD's. More importantly was the fact that he broke the 50yrd rushing mark against a good rushing D in the Redskins. Sounds laughable, but the fact is if he puts 45 or so yards on the ground the Eagles points increase considerably.

Donovan McNabb and crew have put on clinics in the passing game since the upset against the the Steelers and should be in good form this week despite the missing L.J. Smith (TE).

The Giants young gunner Eli Manning didn't do anything spectacular in his debut but he didn't do anything spectacularly wrong either. He got the jitters out of the way early and stayed composed, leading the Giants on two good drives in the second half to make it a game against the Falcons. Running back Tiki Barber will, barring injury, more than likely have his career best rushing year. Jeremy Shockey is tied for third in touchdowns with 5 and in the top ten overall in receiving yards.

So why is N.Y. 5-5 and not 8-2 or 7-3? Injuries that have rendered the O line nearly defenseless against the pass rush. The Giants have great prospects for next year and any fan has got to be pleased about that. This season however they have just too many injuries in too many places to stand up against the top level teams for four quarters. That's what the are going to face Sunday against the Eagles


My Online Betting Action: The Eagles -7.


The San Diego Chargers (7-3) at The Kansas City Chiefs (3-7)
Against the Spread: Chargers 8-1-1 | Chiefs 3-7-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: Chiefs -3 -100
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Chiefs -3 -110
Over/Under 51.5u to 52.5u -110

The Chargers, or more to the point Tomlinson, Gates and Brees, put on another good show last week against the Oakland Raiders. Were it not for the early season loss to the Broncos, they would be in sole possession of first place in the AFC West with a 7-3 record. As it stands now however, they are going to have to fight and beat 3-7 teams just to have a shot at a Wild Card. Don't think for a second that this isn't exactly what Schottenheimer has been preaching to the players and staff all week. The biggest hurdle for them in this match-up is their lack-luster passing D.


Kansas City's Trent Green is a top tier quarterback and if he had just one more solid receiver would be, in all likelihood, in the top three. But he doesn't. Johnny Morton has great hands and solid route running abilities, but is simply too small and too slow for the deep ball threat. Eddie Kennison, speedy though he may be, falls off routes too often and has a tendency to drop perfectly catchable balls. The two have done a great job over the last four games but it has been against “less than” passing defenses like that of the Chargers. They are going to have to continue those type of numbers to keep in this game.

The fact that the Chiefs have no hopes of seeing post season play means the Vermeil is going to be very careful when it comes to his star running back Priest Holmes. Holmes, still ailing from the knee injury suffered in week 9 against Tampa, probably won't suit up for his third consecutive game. His back-up, Derrick Blaylock, will be starting and although he looked great against the weak rushing D of the Saints, came up short against Patriots and will be playing dinged up.

When all is said and done however, look at San Diego's overall game-play and the fact that they have the best ATS in the NFL. As underdogs once again, you have to like them. Particularly when so much is riding on every win for the Chargers.


My Online Betting Action: The Chargers +3.


The Washington Redskins (3-7) at The Pittsburgh Steelers (9-1)
Against the Spread: Redskins 3-7-0 | Steelers 7-2-1
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Steelers -10.5 -105 Over/Under 36u +102
Current High NFL Betting Line: Steelers -12 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Steelers -10.5 -102 to -110
Over/Under 35.5u -110

The Redskins are going through some growing pains. RB Clinton Portis has not been the complete answer on offense that many were hoping for when they dealt Champ Bailey for him. He hasn't had a bad year, just not a great year. Washington has continued to struggle moving the ball, much as they did under Spurrier. The lack of protection up front, whether due to injury or not, has cost them dearly. Even though Gibbs has made some changes and should continue to improve this club, they are still missing some key ingredients needed to make a winning football team.

Where the Redskins do shine is on D. Sitting in the top ranks in defense, Washington has proven to be a formidable foe. At number 2 overall with the 3rd best rushing and 7th best passing defense in the league they are not an easy object to move. They allowed the Eagles to score, but the 28 points is not as bad as it looks. That was do more to the fact that the D was worn out than by any deficiency in their play.

Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger showed his rookie side last week against the stout defense of the Bengals. He ended the day 15-21 and only 84 net in the air. His rebound may be hampered by the loss of his “go to” receiver, Plaxico Burress. Although the Steelers did come away with the W, this was not the Giant Killer that defeated the Patriots and the Eagles. His offense looked downright average, which came as quite a surprise to many. Roethlisberger is young, talented and learning, but he is not a seasoned veteran.

By all accounts it looks as though RB Duce Staley will be playing, but he is not without question. Having been sidelined the last three weeks with a hamstring injury the Bus better have the engine idling. Speaking of which, how many more 30 carry games does RB Jerome Bettis have left in him? The Steelers have counted their blessings with the numbers he has been able to produce starting in Staley's absence, be he's no spring chicken and that body has taken a lot of pounding through the years. The Steelers too, are going to rely on their defense to play up to the #1 ranking they have.

Two ways on this one.

My Online Betting Action: The Redskins +11 & Under 36.

Thanksgiving, Football and Betting Against the Spreads

Happy Thanksgiving!

Going to bang this one out fast, down with the flu for two days and still not quite w/it.

DISLCAIMER
I've been downing Niquil or Dayquil or Somequil since Monday night so if this is complete gibberish please have pity on me.

Honestly, these are two pretty lopsided games, and if they weren't Turkeyday games would warrant next to 0 attention. It's only because they are what all of us fans will be doing between bouts of sustained face stuffing that makes them worth a couple words.

The Indianapolis Colts (7-3) at The Detroit Lions (4-6)
Against the Spread: Colts 6-3-1 | Lions 5-5-0
Game Time: 12:35 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Colts -7.5 53u -107
Current High NFL Betting Line: Colts -10 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Colts -9.5 -110
Over/Under 53.5u to 54u -110

Colts offense blah blah blah... We all know it, they can gun away and the Edge showed a little of that stuff that made him so highly touted early in his career. It was against Chicago, so whatever. They still have no defense and they will be playing against something the resembles an offense in the Detroit Lions.

Detroit is coming off another hard loss, last week at the hands of the Minnesota Vikings. The Lions defense did a good job of holding their own for 3 quarters of play but let it slip out of there hands in the fourth. It didn't help much that Joey and the boys got nothing going in the entire second half.

Still, losing two heart breakers as underdogs and with the opportunity to win both, has got to sting.

Just the same, they are going to be up against the toughest offensive opponent in the NFL. So even though they should be able to score, keeping a healthy quick striking team like that of the Colts from getting ahead early and stretching that lead throughout the game is going to be a really tall order. But they might keep it close, so if you got it at -7.5, the Colts aren't too bad. At -9.5 to -10, it's a bit sketchy.

WR Az Hakim is Questionable and sat out practice. If the NFC wasn't so weak this year you might think they would sit him and not take any chances, but it is, so they might.

Very small wager, really just to make the game more fun to watch.

My Online Betting Action: Two Team Teaser Over 46.5 + The Colts -3.5.


The Chicago Bears (4-6) at The Dallas Cowboys (3-7)
Against the Spread: Bears 5-5-0 | Cowboys 3-7-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Cowboys -3.5 +102 Over/Under 36u -100
Current High NFL Betting Line: Cowboys -3.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Cowboys -3 -110
Over/Under 36u -110

This one really takes the Blue Ribbon in the “Who Gives a Crap” contest.

Hopefully most of us will be so doped up on tryptophan by this point in the day that we will be snoring through a good portion of this game.

Frankly, a reason for even a ”fun” wager on this match-up is a hard one to find.

The Chicago Bears are hurting everywhere. They are Bottom Feeders offensively. Rookie QB Craig Krenzel is being mauled by every defense he faces, having been sacked 14 times in his last 3 outings. He has 5 INT's to go along with his 3 touchdowns and he has fumbled twice in each of the last 3. Yes folks, count 'em, that's 19 turnovers, by 1 player on the offense. The Bears biggest defensive asset, LB Brian Urlacher, is out for what amounts to be the rest of the season, having surgery this past Monday to relieve pressure in his calf in an injury sustained from being kicked last week. But hey, Bears fans, you guys are playing Dallas, so there's always that.

Ugh, Dallas... what the hell? They could very possibly be the worst looking football team in the NFL next to the Oakland Raiders. Seriously these guys can't get anything right. They make a hand-off to the running back look like a complicated play. That said, rookie QB Drew Henson looked decent after his mishap on his first snap as an NFL quarterback. He managed a late drive for a touchdown and ended his day 6 of 6 for 47 yards and a TD. He will be getting the nod to go, despite Parcells weak attempt at deceiving the press.

So we have a 4-6 team against a 3-7 team both with rookie QB's and not much else. Why this one isn't a pick is kind of baffling. Chicago has the slight edge on offense as their Kid has a few more games (and sacks) under his belt, and Dallas' defense is nothing more than a shadow of what it was last season.

The stats on this match-up are not even worth the waste of cyber-paper. Heck, if both teams could be lose they probably would.

If you have to do something with this game to make it worth watching between fits of snoring then the Over is probably your best shot. Neither of these teams can stop anything to speak of so a 23-17 final is not TOO hard to believe.

OR... another two teamer might not be a bad play. Chicago +9.5 & Over 30.

You know, that really isn't that bad. Then again it might be the flu medicine talking here...

Just for the sake of having a reason to watch this game.

My Online Betting Action: Two Team Teaser Over 30 + The Bears +9.5.
(again very small wager)

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Monday Night Football

The New England Patriots (8-1) at The Kansas City Chiefs (3-6)
Against the Spread: Patriots 6-1-2 | Chiefs 3-6-0
Game Time: Monday 9:00 PM ET ABC Monday Night Football
Opening NFL Betting Line: Patriots -3 -107 Over/Under 52.5u -111
Current High NFL Betting Line: Patriots -3 -105 to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Patriots -3 -105 to -110
Over/Under 52.5u -110
Action already on Patriots -3 and Under 52.5

First of all, WooHoo for me! First solid week this season.

After a series of break-even/minor-loss weekends I had a good Sunday.

4-2-1 --- with two of my wins being big bets and my other big bet being a push, tonights outcome will only be icing on the cake.

Speaking of tonights game...

New England historically does well on MNF, but then again so does KC. That being said the Patriots have seen a few more than the Chiefs have and there is something to be said for being “under the gun”, so to speak, playing on national TV.

Offensively, you can go across the board and every category leans towards the Chiefs. Time of possession, 3rd down percentage, Points for, Yardage, etc. Their biggest problem in the offense is the fact that they will have to go it without RB Priest Holmes again.

Kansas City on the other side of the ball... well, now that's not so good. To go along with their superior stats on offense, they are almost equally as bad in nearly every category on defense. Again, Points Allowed, Yardage, Etc. Sitting at 26th overall, 26th against the pass, 14th against the rush, they are not a formidable adversary.

Their Give-away takeaway ratio is terrible (-5), whereas the Patriots are above average (+4). And again, they are not going to have Holmes to help them keep control of the clock.

Although all this makes it even tougher for Kansas City, this may not be quite as damaging as it would seem. Running back Derrick Blaylock had a good outing last week rushing for 186 yards on 30+ carries. So the ground game isn't completely gone with-out Holmes.

Still missing from New England's lineup will be corners Ty Law and Tyrone Poole. The Patriots have been without these guys for the last few weeks and have rebounded nicely after the loss to Pittsburgh. They beat Buffalo by 23 and more key to this match-up, handled the pass attack of Bulger and the receiving corp of the Rams, taking that game by 18 points.

That game tells me they can keep pace with big offenses even with those guys missing. No doubt they would love to have them in the backfield, but they aren't a bust without them.

On offense, the Patriots have shown time and again that they can go toe to toe with darned near anyone.

The under was a good choice primarily due to the fact that Priest was going to be out of the line-up. On further review it may not have been such a good wager.

In any case, here's what we have cooking tonight:


My Online Betting Action: The Patriots -3 | Under 52.5

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting ESPN Night Game

Early Games

The Green Bay Packers (5-4) at The Houston Texans (4-5)
Against the Spread: Packers 4-5-0 | Texans 4-5-0
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET ESPN Night Game
Opening NFL Betting Line: Packers -3 -110 Over/Under 49.5u -106
Current High NFL Betting Line: Packers -3 -109 to -120
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Packers -3 -109 to -120
Over/Under 49u to 51u -110

Going over this game has been a bit troubling.

Green Bay seems to be the obvious choice. Since the return of tackle Grady Jackson, it seems that the Packers defense has started playing, if not inspired, at least decent football. Even with safety Darren Sharper limited to only the dime package, they were able to fend off an end of the game comeback from the Vikings. Youngster, Ahmad Carroll, has started to look considerably better. That means a lot since it is the pass defense that needs the most help.

Statistically speaking, the Packers are slightly better defensively, giving up just about a point less a game than the Texans. Offensively, they rank just slightly ahead of the Texans but are more well rounded. The Texans are ranked 9th overall, breaking down to the 21st rush and the 9th pass. Meanwhile Green Bay sits 5th overall, but with a 9th ranked rush and 3rd ranked pass. Even more to the point is the scoring discrepancy. The Packers average almost 27 points per game versus the Texans 21 (approx.).

With quarterback Brett Favre tossing to the likes of Donald Driver and Javon Walker, Robert Ferguson and tight end Bubba Franks it is no wonder that they have the number 3 passing game. Plus you have Ahman Green in the backfield laying the foundation for one of the all time greatest play action passers in the NFL to stand on.

Again looks obvious for the Packers to cover a 3 point spread.

But the Texans seem to have that something that never lets you feel comfortable betting against them. Quarterback David Carr had been on a hot streak that had him in the top 5 QB ratings. He has thrown for over 2300 yards and still has a completion percentage of about 62%. This is counting the last two games in which he has thrown for 0 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He has the ability to lead the team and spreads the ball around with great accuracy. His wide outs can't complain, none of the four are under 250 yards. And these aren't star studded guys, Jabar Gaffney, Andre Johnson, Corey Bradford, Derick Armstrong, these are not household names here.

Other than running backs Domanick Davis and maybe Tony Hollings, there aren't a handful of players on this team that the average armchair quarterback could name. (No offense to you hardcore fans, I know you guys know these players). And yet they have managed to at least stay in games they they were supposed to get blow out of. That was up until week 9.

Denver started picking away at the offensive line about mid-way through the game. The Colts picked up where Denver left off and furthered that cause. Of Carr's 25 sacks, 9 of them came in the last two games. Four from Denver and Five from Indianapolis. The Packers know that getting to Carr early discourages him. KGB has been “The Man” when comes to doing just that for Green Bay. He has 4.5 sacks and countless knocked-downs.

With KGB, and Na'il Diggs on the right side, and the middle plugged pretty well with Jackson and Barnett it's going to be tough going for the running game of Houston. And Houston is going to need something on the ground to keep Green Bay out of Carrs face all night.

So why so much about this game? Well mainly because writing about it sometimes clarifies thoughts.

What started out to be a questionable game in my mind has since turned into a big bet game.

The bottom line is, Houston can't stop the air assault that the Packers have, and despite a sore knee Ahamn Green is going to be the toughest back they have had to deal with since Priest Holmes. The double trouble from both the air and the ground is too much for the Texans D.

My Online Betting Action: The Packers -3.

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Week 11 Picks of the Week

Jeez Louise what a week. Power outage on Thursday. Friday spent trying to figure out what had happened and getting all the spoiled food out of the fridge. Then there's my favorite, Shopping! To replace all the food lost.

Now I've got about 15lbs of thawed meat that I need to eat in the next week. With Thanksgiving right around the corner that's going to be tough.

Maybe a mid-fall BBQ next week-end...

Anyway, humblest apologies for my tardiness in getting anything decent posted this week.

Now on to where my money's going this weekend.


The Arizona Cardinals (4-5) at The Carolina Panthers (2-7)
Against the Spread: Cardinals 6-3-0 | Panthers 4-5-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: Panthers -3 -100 to -105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Panthers -2.5 -108 to -110
Over/Under 37u -110

Quick rundown...

Cardinals are bad, but getting better. Carolina is bad and getting worse.

Arizona is statistically behind the Panthers both on the offense and defense, but that doesn't tell the whole story. They have improved those numbers dramatically in the last 4 weeks with wins against Seattle, Miami and last week the Giants.

What makes this game likable is the fact that the Panthers are almost completely without weapons offensively. Yes they can stop the passing game to a degree, but they are horrible against the rush. More to the point, they need to be able to pass the ball to get anything going on offense and they just don't have the manpower left to do that.

The Panthers finally caught a break and got to play the 49ers last week to pick up their second win of the season. Not much to brag about with that one. Now they are looking at starting Rodney Peete behind center, with Jake Delhomme still nursing a fractured thumb. Carolina has no one left at running back and their biggest defensive threat, CB Artrell Hawkins, is questionable for Sundays game. Still scratching my head at this line.

My Online Betting Action: The Cardinals Money Line.


The Dallas Cowboys (3-6) at The Baltimore Ravens (6-3)
Against the Spread: Cowboys 3-6-0 | Ravens 7-2-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Ravens -8 -105 Over/Under 35.5u -110
Current High NFL Betting Line: Ravens -9 -100
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Ravens -7.5 -110
Over/Under 35.5u to 36.5u -110

The Over in this one is not a waste of money.

The Cowboys have hardly been any real defensive threat, and no offense to speak of.
Bill Parcels has all but given up on this team. This may well motivate them to prove him wrong. Counting any tactic out of Parcel's play book is a bad thought process. More production on both sides of the ball from this team Sunday.

Baltimore hasn't exactly played stellar, Ray Lewis, style ball lately either. But the still manage to keep opponents from a lot of points. All the same, a win at 23-17 sounds about right.

Taking the Ravens -8 to -9, fishy...

My Online Betting Action: Over 35.5.


The N.Y. Jets (6-3) at The Cleveland Browns (3-6)
Against the Spread: Jets 4-4-1 | Browns 4-5-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: OTB Over/Under 37.5u -103
Current High NFL Betting Line: Jets -1 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Jets -0 -110
Over/Under 37.5u -110
That a 6-3 team is a pick vs a 3-6 team speaks volumes as to parity in the NFL today

The Jets loss to the Ravens last week has caused a bit of controversy around the leadership abilities of Coach Herm Edwards and his staff. The obvious tardiness in getting the plays called into the offense cost them a win last week. The Jets didn't play great ball, but they played good enough to win. That one is a coaching loss, pure and simple. Assuming that Edwards had a few Staff meetings, that had better have had a pretty harsh tone, that shouldn't be an issue Sunday.

Cleveland is coming off some heartbreaking losses over the last few weeks. They played good old fashioned hard nosed defense. Quarterback Jeff Garcia can make some plays happen when he gets his feet moving and WR Dennis Northcutt is without questions a deep ball threat. Running back William Green has shown the ability to break off some good runs and is a strong back.

In the end, even without Chad, the Jets are the better football team. They can't afford to drop to 6-4. They have to get this win just to keep pace in the AFC.

My Online Betting Action: The Jets -0.


The Pittsburgh Steelers (8-1) at The Cincinnati Bengals (4-5)
Against the Spread: Steelers 7-2-0 | Bengals 3-6-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Steelers -4 -107 Over/Under 40.5u -107
Current High NFL Betting Line: Steelers -4.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Steelers -4 -103 to -115
Over/Under 40.5u -110

Feeling dirty just writing this... Cincinnati is over-rated at the moment. Pittsburgh is going to bring them back to reality. This is a first for me, betting against my team. But this line is so out of whack that there is just no getting away from it.

My Online Betting Action: The Steelers -4 (-7 is more realistic).


The San Diego Chargers (6-3) at The Oakland Raiders (3-6)
Against the Spread: Chargers 7-1-1 | Raiders 3-6-0
Game Time: 4:05 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Chargers -3.5 -100 Over/Under 48.5u -100
Current High NFL Betting Line: Chargers -4.5 –110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Chargers -3.5 -110
Over/Under 47.5u to 48u -110
Action already on Chargers -3.5

As mentioned earlier, action is already on the Chargers.

Who would have believed the quarterback Drew Brees would sit in top 3 in the QB rankings half-way through the season? Not Marty! If he would have, Philip Rivers might not be on the San Diego roster.

The real meat is in the running game. RB LaDainian Tomlinson has been such a solid back this year. Putting up good numbers game in and game out. His counterpart, Jesse Chatman has been able to come in and get the job done both in situational plays as well as giving Tomlinson some rest. Add into the mix one of the better special teams in the league that consistently gives them good starting field position and the recipe is already written for success.

Finding something good to say about Oakland is damn near impossible this season. They don't look like a team that belongs in the CFL, let alone the NFL. When San Diego first encountered the Oakland Raiders it was at Jack Murphy (or whatever the hell they call it now) and the Chargers thumped them 42-14. Being in Oakland isn't going to change the fact that the Raiders Stink, and it isn't going to help the score look any less one sided.

My Online Betting Action: The Chargers -3.5.
(-4 is fine and I would have taken it at that as well)


The Washington Redskins (3-6) at The Philadelphia Eagles (8-1)
Against the Spread: Redskins 3-6-0 | Eagles 6-3-0
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Eagles -10.5 -102 Over/Under 38u -112
Current High NFL Betting Line: Eagles -12 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Eagles -10 –106 to -110
Over/Under 38u to 38.5u -110

The Washington Redskins head into this game with nothing to lose except respect. No one has blown them out this season, the biggest margin was 14 against the Packers. Every other game has been within 7. They will be starting Patrick Ramsey at QB and he has seen some success against the Eagles.

The Eagles are facing off against the second best defense in the league. The best, Pittsburgh, schooled them. Besides the lopsided win against Dallas last week, the offense of the Eagles has looked rather anemic. They have yet to get any real ground game going with Levens and Westbrook. That is going to hurt them against this defense.

Too big a spread.

My Online Betting Action: The Redskins +11.


Still mulling over the Packers V. Texans game.

MNF coming up next