NFL Pick of the Week

Sunday, December 19, 2004

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Picks of The Week 15

Ok Fast And Furious. Watching the Panthers, which as you all know I have a wager on. It will be a winning day or a break even day depending on the outcome.

The Dallas Cowboys (5-8) at The Philadelphia Eagles (12-1)
Against the Spread: Cowboys 5-8-0 | Eagles 9-4-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Eagles -14 +120
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Eagles -12.5 -110
Over/Under 46u -110
Despite last weeks outcome, they are still good to cover against Dallas. Wager already on Eagles -

The Eagles had one of their worst outings last week against the Redskins. They still are great ATS and that number has been lowered this week because of that game. McNabb can get it done with T.O., L.J and B.W. (Brian Westbrook, trying to keep up with the initials thing. Westbrook has proven over the last couple of games that he really does deserve the job. He has good running ability and great hands. Just what you want in an all purpose back, aka Faulk. T.O., well T.O. Is what he is, one of the best in the biz. In the Moss v. Owens battle, Owens wins. His size enables him to do thing that Moss can't, YET! Moss has the acrobatics, but he can't get off on the CB's like T.O. Can. Let him bulk up another year and we shall see.

Sorry for the tangent.

Game Break: Yes! Carolina just scored, 7 point game...

Ok, numbers...

Eagles offense 5th in points scored at 27.5, allow only 15.0
Dallas offense 21st in points cored at 19.2, allow 27.3
Eagles defensive points, 24 total on 15 INT's and 13 Forced Fumbles
Dallas defensive points, 0 total on 8 INT's and 10 Forced Fumbles
Eagles overall offensive ranking, 7th - 22nd rush, 5th pass
Dallas overall offensive ranking, 15th - 18th rush, 17th pass

Game Break: Right On! Vick fumbles, Peppers recovers it, returns 60 yards for TD, tied 24 all.

Dallas overall defensive ranking, 25th - 12th rush, 26th pass <--That's gonna hurt
Eagles overall defensive ranking, 12th - 13th rush, 13th pass (how does that figure to a 12th rating?)

The Eagles have an average margin of victory of 15.25 points.
Dallas has an average margin of loss of 18 points.

The Math isn't hard to figure out.

My Online Betting Action: The Eagles -11.5

Recent Trends
•Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
•Cowboys are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 overall.
•Under is 6-2 in DAL last eight games in Dec.
•Under is 9-3 in PHI last 12 overall.
•PHI is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in Dec.
•PHI is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.

Game Break: Woohoo! Panther's just scored again. 31-24... the Money Line Wager is starting to look mighty sweet from this end. 3:37 4th quarter.

The Houston Texans (5-8) at The Chicago Bears (5-8)
Against the Spread: Texans 7-6-0 | Bears 6-7-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bears -1 -110 to -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bears 0 -110
Over/Under 33.5u to 34u -110
Are the Texans back on a roll? I won a good chuck of change betting then as underdogs early in the season. Going to have to look at this game long and hard.

Looked long and hard and the fact is that the Texans, as streaky as they can be, are a better club than the Bears are at this stage.

Chicago's Hutchinson had a good first game against the very weak D of the Vikings. He did not do so hot against the Jags. Going 17 of 33 for 212 yards, no touchdowns and 1 interception. Ended the day with 52% completions, and in general just didn't look very good.

Game Break: Vick just got slammed on 2nd & goal, hobbled off the field. 2min. Warning, ughhh, sweating profusely now...

By contrast, even though they lost, Houston kept the powerhouse offense of Indy to a meager 23 points and Carr looked good. He was 16 of 21, 1 touchdown and 1 interception. Finished with 76.2% completions and a rating of 94.7. None too shabby. Domanick Davis had an outstanding day, rushing for 128 yards on 23 carries. He caught 6 passes for 73 yards, but it was against the Colts.

Game Break: 4th & goal from the Atlanta 14, Vick runs it in for the TD, extra point is good. 31-31 1:37 left Panther's have 1 timeout (Booth review on TD, it was an amazing feat on Vick's part).

The Bear's have a more efficient defense, scoring 54 points while allowing only 20. They rank 17th overall -24th against the rush, 12th against the pass.
Houston comes in at a lowly 30th overall - 18th against the rush, 29th against the pass, and they are much less efficient, scoring only 30 points defensively.

Game Break: OT Panther's to receive.

Offensively the numbers change drastically. Houston is mid pack with an average of 19.2 per game and ranks 16th overall -20th rush, 18th pass. Carr has a QB rating of 84.6 with over 300 yards, and 13 touchdowns. The downside is he has 12 interceptions and 10 fumbles (he's only lost 2 however). A lot of that can be attributed to the O line, as the have allowed him to be sacked 37 times – tied for 3rd most in the NFL.

Game Break: Delhomme floats one over Proehl's head picked off by Beasley, returned to Carolina's 23. Two running plays, Feely's 38 yard field goal is good. Atlanta 34 Carolina 31 ~~Fuck~~ darned, should have taken the 3.5 points.

The Bear's are a horse of a different color. Their ranked dead last - 24th rush, 30th pass. Sitting second to last in scoring with only 15.3 per game and that's likely to go to last after the Washington game gets added. That is unless they pull a rabbit out of their hat tomorrow. Hutchinson is a complete unknown, so trying to calculate his effectiveness is a waste of time.

My Online Betting Action: The Texans +1

Recent Trends
•Under is 9-2 in HOU last 11 games in Dec.
•HOU is 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games.
•Under is 5-2-1 in HOU last eight overall.
•CHI is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in Dec.
•Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last seven at home.
•Under is 6-3 in CHI last nine home games.

The San Diego Chargers (10-3) at The Cleveland Browns (3-10)
Against the Spread: Chargers 10-1-2 | Browns 4-9-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Chargers -11 -125
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Chargers -9.5 -104 to -110
Over/Under 37u to 37.5u -110
Again, despite last week, wager already on Chargers -9.5

How can you not wager on a team with an ATS of 10-1-2. Riding them has been like a pony ride at the kiddy farm. The Chargers have everything clicking, even on off days like last week. Tomlinson is rockin' and rollin'. Brees is making it real tough to release him (What are they going to do next year, they can't keep him and Rivers). Here's what LT thinks about it ...issue his support for bringing resurgent quarterback Drew Brees back to San Diego next season. "I don't think there is any question," he told the North County Times. "Why break up something that's not broken? That's the way I feel about it. I hope I don't get in trouble." And he is right. Drew is playing great, he has lofted himself into the upper echelon of QB's. He is now #4, but still has a 102.7rating. Although he hasn't passed for the nearly 4000 yards that the guys in fron of him have, he still owns a 64.5 completion percentage and has only 6interceptions to his 23 touchdowns.

Don't expect Antonio Gates to be as lack-luster as he was last week. He's still one of the top receivers and he's tied for 3rd in TD's with 11.

San Diego's O line is getting the job done, both in pass blocking and in run blocking. Just look at the numbers, LT has 1147 yards rushing, 357 yards receiving and 14 touchdowns.
Brees has only hit the turf 16 times and he's actually rushed for 2 TD,s.

The Browns are coming around, but it's going to be a bit. They are going to have to go it again without Holcomb. Lee Suggs is questionable, very questionable. That means Green sees most of the running duties, and since they are playing from behind so often his numbers are very lacking, hence you really don't know what he may be capable of. He's only had 46 carries in the last 4 games, that's not enough to show you much.

McCown had a great outing against New England, but only completed 8 passes last week against Buffalo, throwing 2 INT's to his 1 touchdown. With all the injuries, having their best receiver on IR and the “who knows who's gonna be the starter” at RB they are just in such a disarray that it's amazing that they can score at all.

Cleveland has a single bright spot, they have CB Daylon McCutcheon back in the starting line-up. That's it. The rest of their numbers are evwen worse than they were last week, so no reason to hash over that.

This is a big bet yet again.

My Online Betting Action: The Chargers -9.5

Recent Trends
•SD is 11-1-2 ATS in their last 14 overall.
•Under is 4-1 in SD last five road games.
•SD is 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight on the road.
•Browns are 0-6 ATS in their last six overall.
•CLE is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 as a dog.
•Over is 2-0 in the last two meetings in CLE.

The Seattle Seahawks (7-6) at The N.Y. Jets (9-4)
Against the Spread: Seahawks 5-8-0 | Jets 7-5-1
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Jets -7 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Jets -6.5 -110
Over/Under 40u to 40.5u -110
In spite of what the 'Hawks did last week, with both teams so desperate for the win, I give the advantage to Herm and Chad/Quincy. Eat the points, they are 7-5-1 ATS, Odds are in your favor.

Jets are going to run the ball with Chad still sore and the possibility that Carter may get in. It's going to be all about Curtis Martin.

Seattle's Matt Hasselbeck can get it done but it seems that Holmgren will keep the lid shut on him because of his tendency to throw interceptions at EXACTLY the wrong time. They got away with the win at Minnesota, but they tried to give it away. Again it's would seem that they will use Shaun Alexander to the utmost. Particularly when you consider how well he is playing.

Statistically the Seahawks have the advantage over the Jets in overall defense, but the jets make up for that with their Giveaway/takeaway numbers and the difference in points allowed.

Taking a little advice from Brian of N.Y. Jets Football blog in one respect, The Under.

But I'm still seeing the Jets as having the better ATS against tougher opponents.

Two ways:

One Medium.
My Online Betting Action: The Jets -6
One Small.
My Online Betting Action: The Under 40.5

Recent Trends
•Under is 4-2 in the last six meetings.
•SEA is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 overall.
•Over is 8-2 in SEA last 10 overall.
•Under is 8-3 in NYJ last 11 overall.
•NYJ are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games in Dec.
•Jets are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.

Friday, December 17, 2004

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Picks of The Week 15

The NFL Saturday Games

The Pittsburgh Steelers (12-1) at The N.Y. Giants (5-8)
Against the Spread: Steelers 8-4-1 | Giants 5-8-0
Game Time: 1:30 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Steelers -11.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Steelers -10 -110
Over/Under 34u to 34.5u -110
Already have an Online Wager on the Steelers and the Under

Roethlisberger is now sitting with a QB rating of 97.6 with a completion percentage 0f right around 68%. That's all well and good, but Burress will still be out as will “The Duce”. Bettis has to do the job again, and he has appeared to be able to do it well. Even though the have an average offense, they have a defense that can fill in the gaps

The Steelers D is top notch across the board and they have one of the better Give-Away Take-Away numbers in the NFL at +13. They are also darned good at turning those into points, 18 from interceptions, 24 from fumbles. That is what should hold this game somewhat tight but ultimately result in a 13-1 record for the Steelers.

The Giants with Eli can't seem to get anything right, he's thrown 1 TD and 6 INT's, he doesn't even qualify for the QB ratings, Kurt has better numbers. His brother wasn't even that bad in his rookie year (26/28 rating 71.2). Bottom line, he looks completely confused once he gets the ball. Amani Toomer has caught 5 passes in the last 3 games amounting to a total of 118 yards. Jeremy Shockey, who had been their saving grace, only came up decent last week and he hasn't seen the endzone in 3 games. Even the once proud Tiki Barber's numbers have dwindle to next to nothing. He's gained under 100 yards in the last two games. This is from an RB who looked like he was going to set career high numbers this year. This could go on, but no sense in belaboring the obvious.

They have one of the worst offenses all the way across the board since Eli took over. It's not all his fault, but when you can't trust your QB to lead, it brings the whole team down.

N.Y.'s D had been something to worry about, Quoth the raven, `Nevermore'. In Gives/Takes their only +1, and they can't score defensively, 12 total points to the D's credit. What was once a truly solid defense has been relegated to just above average.
Here are the numbers:
20.5 points given a game. 316.8 Total yards, 137.5 Rushing & 179.3 Passing.
They can get through the weaker O lines, Pittsburgh's O line isn't that weak. They may have an overall ranking of 10th, but with a rush ranking of 26th it's probably not going to help. Their 6th rush ranking is suspect as well, see what the Bus does to that.

My Online Betting Action: The Steelers -10 The Under 34.5

Recent Trends
•Over is 3-0 in the last three meetings.
•Steelers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 overall.
•Under is 6-0 in PIT last six overall.
•Giants are on a six game losing streak ATS.
•Under is 8-4 in NYG last 12 overall.
•NYG are 0-6 ATS in their last six games in Dec.

The Washington Redskins (4-9) at The San Fransisco 49ers (2-11)
Against the Spread: Redskins 6-7-0 | 49ers 96-7-0
Game Time: 5:00 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Redskins -4 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Redskins -3.5 -110 to -114
Over/Under 36.5u to 37u -110
Redskins proved that their D is a tough nut to crack, 49ers aren't that kind of nutcracker. Wager already on Washington.

Not even going to bother with a bunch of jargon on this game. The Redskins outclass the 49ers. They win I win. Period.

My Online Betting Action: The Redskins -3.5 Maybe! The Under 37 Undecided

Recent Trends
•WAS is 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
•Under is 10-3 in WAS last 13 overall.
•WAS is 3-0 ATS in their last three overall.
•SF is 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
•Over is 8-4 in SF last 12 games in Dec.
•Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in SF.

The Carolina Panthers (6-7) at The Atlanta Falcons (10-3)
Against the Spread: Panthers 8-5-0 | Falcons 6-7-0
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Falcons -3.5 -100 to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Falcons -3 -120 to -125
Over/Under 38u -110
Atlanta outplayed themselves last week. They are going to have a much tougher game against the Panthers. One to look at for sure.

Looked and Looked... then looked at the Panthers ATS and starting crunching.

The Panthers, even with an injured Delhomme are playing great ball. He has a QB rating of 82.3 and has thrown for over 3000 yards. They may not have much in the way of a running game with the injuries to their starting and subbing RB's, but they sure can pass the ball. Muhsin Muhammad has cranked out 7 touchdowns and 600 yards in the last 5 games. Ricky Proehl has been such a clutch receiver and has gotten them out of jams and kept drives alive, even though his numbers don't show it. The same could be said of Keary Colbert, who is a sideline catching fool. And How about that punter, Todd Sauerbrun, is he as good as it gets or what. Average of 44.4 per kick. 20 inside the opponents twenty yard line. 6 inside the 10. All the punters that have better numbers have punted well over his 60.

Carolinas D is really picking up the pace. They aren't great, but they are ample. Particularly against a team such as the Falcons. The are dead center over all at 16th, 16th against the rush and 22nd against the pass. The rushing game is what they are going to need to do best. That and containing Vick.

Atlanta, despite their record, has impressed me very little. If Vick is kept to having to actually be a quarterback not a running back, they look bad. They have the number 1 rushing game, but again that is primarily due to Vick. Dunn hasn't been bad, but he hasn't been all that good either. He's only rushed for over 100 yards twice all year. The majority of the time he's in the 50 range. He's scored a grand total of 7 times, nothing to write home about there. Duckett has been about useless and is now out and will probably end up on IR with his knee injury. Other than TE Alge Crumpler, the receivers have seen little to no duty. Peerless Price, Dez White, Brian Finneran and Michael Jenkins have amased a grand total of 1009 yards combined. So the 22nd pass D of the Panther's doesn't really come into play except in the redzone when Vick can't run it in and HAS to look for Alge.

The Falcons come in at 10th against the pass and 21st aginst the rush. Their Give/Take is +3, but they do have the ability to convert those into points. 18 on interceptions and 24 on fumbles. This was one of the things that was worrisome when making a pick on this one. In fact, it was almost left alone based on that. But the reality is their D doesn't seem to be capable of overcoming their obvious problems on offense when they face a scoring team. Plus Tampa shut them out!

My Online Betting Action: The Panthers +3.5 Or Money Line

Recent Trends
•Under is 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings.
•CAR is 6-1 ATS in their last seven overall.
•Over is 3-0 in CAR last three road games.
•Under is 17-5 in ATL last 22 overall.
•Under is 6-1 in ATL last seven games in Dec.
•ATL is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.

Tuesday, December 14, 2004

NFL Pick of the Week Against the Spread - Betting Lines Week 15

The NFL Saturday Games

The Pittsburgh Steelers (12-1) at The N.Y. Giants (5-8)
Against the Spread: Steelers 8-4-1 | Giants 5-8-0
Game Time: 1:30 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Steelers -11.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Steelers -10 -110
Over/Under 34u to 34.5u -110
Already have an Online Wager on the Steelers and the Under

Recent Trends
•Over is 3-0 in the last three meetings.
•Steelers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 overall.
•Under is 6-0 in PIT last six overall.
•Giants are on a six game losing streak ATS.
•Under is 8-4 in NYG last 12 overall.
•NYG are 0-6 ATS in their last six games in Dec.

Recent Trends
•WAS is 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
•Under is 10-3 in WAS last 13 overall.
•WAS is 3-0 ATS in their last three overall.
•SF is 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
•Over is 8-4 in SF last 12 games in Dec.
•Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in SF.

Recent Trends
•Under is 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings.
•CAR is 6-1 ATS in their last seven overall.
•Over is 3-0 in CAR last three road games.
•Under is 17-5 in ATL last 22 overall.
•Under is 6-1 in ATL last seven games in Dec.
•ATL is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.

The NFL Sunday Games

The Buffalo Bills (7-6) at The Cincinnati Bengals (6-7)
Against the Spread: Bills 9-4-0 | Bengals 6-6-1
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Buffalo -2 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bengals -0 -105 to -110
Over/Under 44.5u -110
Cincy has the edge with the momentum in Bengal-land

Recent Trends
•BUF is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
•BUF is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 overall.
•Over is 6-1 in BUF last seven overall.
•CIN is 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight overall.
•Under is 6-1 in CIN last seven home games.
•Under is 4-2 in the last six meetings.

The Dallas Cowboys (5-8) at The Philadelphia Eagles (12-1)
Against the Spread: Cowboys 5-8-0 | Eagles 9-4-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Eagles -14 +120
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Eagles -12.5 -110
Over/Under 46u -110
Despite last weeks outcome, they are still good to cover against Dallas. Wager already on Eagles -

Recent Trends
•Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
•Cowboys are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 overall.
•Under is 6-2 in DAL last eight games in Dec.
•Under is 9-3 in PHI last 12 overall.
•PHI is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in Dec.
•PHI is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.

The Houston Texans (5-8) at The Chicago Bears (5-8)
Against the Spread: Texans 7-6-0 | Bears 6-7-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bears -1 -107 to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bears -0 -110
Over/Under 35.5u to 36u -110
Are the Texans back on a roll? I won a good chuck of change betting then as underdogs early in the season. Going to have to look at this game long and hard.

Recent Trends
•Under is 9-2 in HOU last 11 games in Dec.
•HOU is 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games.
•Under is 5-2-1 in HOU last eight overall.
•CHI is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in Dec.
•Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last seven at home.
•Under is 6-3 in CHI last nine home games.

Recent Trends
•SD is 11-1-2 ATS in their last 14 overall.
•Under is 4-1 in SD last five road games.
•SD is 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight on the road.
•Browns are 0-6 ATS in their last six overall.
•CLE is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 as a dog.
•Over is 2-0 in the last two meetings in CLE.

Recent Trends
•Under is 4-2 in the last six meetings.
•SEA is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 overall.
•Over is 8-2 in SEA last 10 overall.
•Under is 8-3 in NYJ last 11 overall.
•NYJ are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games in Dec.
•Jets are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.

The Denver Broncos (8-5) at The Kansas City Chiefs (5-8)
Against the Spread: Broncos 4-6-3 | Chiefs 5-8-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Chiefs -1 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Chiefs -0 -110
OTB at most Online Sportsbooks
Over/Under 52.5u to 53u -105 to -110
OTB at most Online Sportsbooks
Given Denver's horrid play as of late and the good play by KC Monday Night, even as a Pick Denver's scary

Recent Trends
•DEN is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
•Under is 8-2-2 in Broncos last 12 overall.
•Under is 4-0 in DEN last four games in Dec.
•Over is 13-3 in KC last 16 games in Dec.
•KC is 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.
•Over is 6-0 in the last six meetings.

The New Orleans Saints (5-8) at The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-8)
Against the Spread: Saints 5-8-0 | Buccaneers 5-6-2
Game Time: 4:05 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Buccaneers -9 -105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Buccaneers -7.5 -110
Over/Under 44u -106 to -110
With the way the Bucs' have played lately, taking them at home to cover the spread is not far fetched.

Recent Trends
•NO is 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings in TB.
•Under is 6-2 in NO last eight games in Dec.
•NO is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games.
•Under is 17-7 in TB last 24 overall.
•TB has won their last four home games ATS.
•Under is 3-0 in the last three meetings.

The St. Louis Rams (6-7) at The Arizona Cardinals (4-9)
Against the Spread: Rams 3-9-1 | Cardinals 6-7-0
Game Time: 4:05 PM ET -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Rams -1.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Rams -1.5 -110
Over/Under 41.5u -104 to -110
Arizona got an OT win over the 49ers. But with the roulette game going on over there at QB who knows what Sunday will bring. I have to say that in his one start John Navarre looks better than McCown. Rams have to win so even with a ATS of 3-9-1, at -1.5 wager already on the Rams

Recent Trends
•STL is 2-4 ATS in the last six meetings.
•STL is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in Dec.
•Over is 8-4 in the Rams last 12 overall.
•ARI is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games.
•Over is 8-2 in ARI last 10 overall.
•Over is 3-1 in the last four meetings in ARI.

The Tennessee Titans (4-9) at The Oakland Raiders (4-9)
Against the Spread: Titans 4-9-0 | Raiders 4-9-0
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Raiders
Current Low NFL Betting Line Raiders
OTB at almost every Online Sportsbook. I searched, couldn't find one that had a spread. It's even OTB at the Mirage (MGM Book)
Over/Under
Same as above, OTB everywhere
if you can find action I might take the Titans. Post Comment if someone finds a place.

Recent Trends
•TEN is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
•TEN is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 overall.
•Over is 6-1 in TEN last seven games in Dec.
•OAK is 7-22-1 ATS in their last 30 overall.
•Over is 5-2 in OAK last seven overall.
•Over is 6-3 in the last nine meetings.

The Baltimore Ravens (8-5) at The Indianapolis Colts (10-3)
Against the Spread: Ravens 9-4-0 | Colts 8-4-1
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET ESPN Night Game
Current High NFL Betting Line: Colts -9 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Colts -7.5 -102 to -115
Over/Under 49u to 49.5u -107 to -110
Rode the coattails of the Colts covering by landslides, those days may be over. Baltimore puts up a great D, but can they stop the passing of Manning and crew. Very close inspection of this match-up is warranted.

Recent Trends
•BAL is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
•BAL is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 overall.
•Over is 5-1 in BAL last six overall.
•Over is 9-4 in the Colts last 13 overall.
•IND is 6-3 ATS in their last nine home games.
•Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.

The New England Patriots (12-1) at The Miami Dolphins (2-11)
Against the Spread: Patriots 9-2-2 | Dolphins 5-8-0
Game Time: Monday 9:00 PM ET ABC Monday Night Football
Current High NFL Betting Line: Patriots -10.5 +115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Patriots -9 -110
Over/Under 41u -110
Yeah, I bet against my home team last week and got burned for doing it. God doesn't like traitors! This week the Pat's are playing the dolphins so I can breath easier. When you have a team with an ATS as good as New England has versus a bad team, My online wagering goes to the superior team that also covers spreads. Patriots -9 or -10.5 +115

Recent Trends
•Pats are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.
•NE is 23-5-3 ATS in their last 31 overall.
•Over is 7-2-1 in NE last 10 road games.
•Over is 7-1 in MIA last eight overall.
•MIA is 1-11 ATS in their last 12 home games.
•Under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings.

Sunday, December 12, 2004

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Monday Night Football Pick Week 14

Could I have taken a worse beating this weekend?

The Kansas City Chiefs (4-8) at The Tennessee Titans (4-8)
Against the Spread: Chiefs 4-8-0 | Titans 4-8-0
Game Time: Monday 9:00 PM ET ABC Monday Night Football
Opening NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: Titans -1.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Titans 0 -104 to -110
Over/Under 52.5u to 53u -110

Going at this one without any resources from the laptop in the living room. All the same how much could really be said about these two teams?

So the Chiefs are without RB Preist Holmes, QB Trent Green is questionable as is WR/KR/PR Donte' Hall. That sums up the offense problems.

Defensively, KC is going to have to it without DE Vonnie Holiday for the second straight game, and missing his third in a row will be SS Greg Wesley.

The Chiefs have next to no defense anyway so these injuries mean very little, with the exception of Vonnie Holiday.

The Titans list is even longer and at more important positions - Titans Injury - QB Steve McNair is still plagued with a bruised sternum, but you can't count him out. If he can't make the start, backup Billy Volek has shown that he can lead this team having over 1200 yards in only 4 games. That coupled with the relatively healthy receiving corps could be Tennessee's best shot.

The Titan's D just edges out the D of KC giving up about 3 fewer points. A lot fewer yards a game, both passing and rushing. Again advantage Titans. Overall Tennessee ranks 16th -17th rush, 18th pass- while KC sits at nearly the bottom at 30th overall -12th rush, 31st pass- so no help there. One thing that might hurt Titan's numbers will be the MIA CB Samari Rolle.

Overall, as a pick the lean is towards the home team.

Just for fun:

Two Team Teaser

My Online Betting Action: The Titans +6 & The Under 59.5

Saturday, December 11, 2004

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Picks of The Week 14, Part Three

Ok, Down and dirty. These are small wagers only!

Top Three Picks
Middle of the Road Picks

The Seattle Seahawks (6-6) at The Minnesota Vikings (7-5)
Against the Spread: Seahawks 4-8-0 | Vikings 7-5-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: Vikings -7.5 +105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Vikings -6.5 -110 to -115
Over/Under 51u to 52u -110 to -113

Seattle manages to find a way to lose a game in every way imaginable. This week shows no appearance of being any different. Even Alexander, as good as he is, can't help medirocre coaching and poor decision making by Hasselbeck.

With no real defense to speak of, stopping the passing game of the Vikings seems like climbing Mt. Everest without a rope.

Vikings with Moss now recovered can kill you in the air. If that wasn't enough they have discovered something in the way of a running game with Onterrio Smith, and if they can put him back in Mewelde Moore.

My Online Betting Action: The Vikings -6.5

The N.Y. Jets (9-3) at The Pittsburgh Steelers (11-1)
Against the Spread: Jets 7-4-1 | Steelers 7-4-1
Game Time: 4:05 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Steelers -5.5 -111 Over/Under 35.5u -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Steelers -7 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Steelers -5.5 -115
Over/Under 35.5u to 36u -104 to -110

Chad Looked pretty good all things considered. They won a big one that was much needed and much unexpected. Martin had another outstanding day and if that continues it could bolster there chances.

If the D can pressure Big Ben then all the better.

Pittsburgh has shown their weakness and now everyone knows what it is. With Duce still bothered (although not on the injury report) the Bus is going to be heavily relied on and they are still going to be without Burress plus they lost Riemersma last Sunday.

My Online Betting Action: The Jets +7

The San Fransisco 49ers (1-11) at The Arizona Cardinals (4-8)
Against the Spread: 49ers 5-7-0 | Cardinals 6-6-0
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Cardinals -6 -105 Over/Under 37u -112
Current High NFL Betting Line: Cardinals -8 –110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Cardinals -5.5 -110
Over/Under 37u -110

The Cards will be getting Emmitt back and no matter who starts at QB the 49ers won't have an answer.

Arizona can proffer up something like a defense particularly against the pass. Since that's all that San Fran has...

San Fransisco is a bad bad team. Worse than Cinci was at their depths. So expecting anything from them is like expecting a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

My Online Betting Action: The Cardinals -5.5

The St. Louis Rams (6-6) at The Carolina Panthers (5-7)
Against the Spread: Rams 3-8-1 | Panthers 7-5-0
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: Panthers -7.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Panthers -6.5 –110
Over/Under 44u -110

The Rams are in a must win situation. Stephen Jackson is probably out, but Faulk should be a little healthier. Even if Bulger doesn't start Smoker has talent and knows his way around this offense. So assuming that Marts takes the fact that he's a rookie into account they could still pick up this much needed win.

Carolina is in about the same position but have less weapons to work with. They have shown up big as of late, but Delhomme is still bothered by his thumb and punter Todd Sauerbrun is bothered by a quad injury. That means a lot to a team that relies on their ability to pin opponents deep in their own territory.

My Online Betting Action: The Rams +7.5

The New Orleans Saints (4-8) at The Dallas Cowboys (5-7)
Against the Spread: Saints 4-8-0 | Cowboys 5-7-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: Cowboys -8.5 -105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Cowboys -6.5 -120
Over/Under 47.5u to 48u -110

New Orleans can't get much of anything right. Neither on offense nor on defense. They have talent just bad coaching and no sense of direction.

Dallas seems re-born with Julius Jones, and that has seemed to spark life in all kinds of places. Even the scrub defense played decently last week.

Dallas seems the better team, and the Saints are bad on the road and worse in Conference games.

My Online Betting Action: The Cowboys -6.5

Sorry if I've made any egregious errors, did this last run in about 30min. So do me a favor and point them out so I don't look like a complete moron.

And lastly, thank you for stopping to read my humble blog!

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Picks of The Week 14, Part Duex

These are my middle of the road picks, worthy of medium sized bets. For my big bets this weekend:

Top Three Picks

The Cleveland Browns (3-9) at The Buffalo Bills (6-6)
Against the Spread: Browns 4-8-0 | Bills 8-4-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bills -12.5 -100
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bills -11 -108 to -110
Over/Under 38u -110

The Browns had an outstanding offensive performance against the Cincinnati Bengals last week, even though they lost. That was with QB Kelly Holcomb at the helm. He's out for this game with cracked ribs. This leaves rookie Luke McCown taking snaps. Although he did not do a terrible job against NE going 20 of 34 for 277 yards and 2 touchdowns. He did get picked twice and was sacked on three occasions. Rumor has it that after his awful performance last week, RB William Green will play second string to rookie RB Adimchinobe Echemandu. That sounds like desperation, and testing ground for next season. This makes since considering that they have no chance of post season play, and are not good enough to be a spoiler. WR Andre Davis was officially placed on IR and will be out the remainder of the season. Not that the news has any impact.

Cleveland's defense will most likely not see CB Daylon McCutcheon in the lineup. Last weeks game showed just what that does to the secondary. The bright side is that Drew Bledsoe will be the passer for the Bills so that is somewhat offset. There just isn't much else to speak about in terms of the Browns D. They give up 26 points a game, 343 yards -139 on the ground and 203 in the air. They do manage to get picks, but can do very little with them, having gained only 6 points on 14 interceptions. Same thing applies with forced fumbles, 7 but only 6 points to their credit. All this adds up to an overall D ranking of 22nd – 29 against the rush 13 against the pass.

The Bills have something at stake in all of the remaining games. Much like the Bengals they are still in the mathematical hunt for a playoff berth in the incredibly tight AFC. At 6-6 they are tied with Cincinnati and Jacksonville and if the right things happen and they get wins that they should it could be a true race to the finish for those precious Wild Card spots. They Jets, in all likelihood , have one pretty well sewn up. The other one is held by a thin string by Baltimore who has lost their last two and are certainly not a lock against the Giants.

Buffalo has won their last three in spite of Bledsoe's attempts at throwing them away. RB Willis McGahee has gone for over 100 in 4 of his last 6 starts. The last one being just shy at 91. Considering the Dolphins poor rushing D that was somewhat surprising. But Drew did have his best game of the year getting 277 yards, 4 touchdowns and, sit down folks, NO interceptions. Never mind the offense for a moment, it's the defense that should control this game.

Coming in with the 4th overall D and well rounded at 4th against the rush and 9th against the pass and considering the changes in roster for Cleveland, stopping them should not be a huge task. The Bills are +2 in Give-Aways/Take-Aways versus Cleveland's -7, obvious edge to the Bills. They have more at stake and they have not lost a home game since week 4 and have an average win margin of about 16 points. All that as well as an ATS of 8-4-0 doesn't make this a hards pick for a medium sized bet.

My Online Betting Action: The Bills -11

The Philadelphia Eagles (11-1) at The Washington Redskins (4-8)
Against the Spread: Eagles 9-3-0 | Redskins 5-7-0
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET ESPN Night Game
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Eagles -9 -107 Over/Under 37.5u -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Packers -10.5 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Packers -9 -104 to -110
Over/Under 37.5u -110

The Eagles led by the #2 rated QB, Donovan McNabb, handed Green Bay their hats last week, blowing them out 47-17. WR Terrell Owens who was already just under 1000 yards picked up 8 catches for 161 yards and a touchdown. Wasn't the Player of the Game however. That honor was bestowed upon RB Brian Westbrook, who only had 37 yards rushing, but caught 11 passes for 156 yards and 3 touchdowns. WR Todd Pinkston is expected to play, which gives McNabb yet another outlet. For the first time all season, TE L.J. Smith doesn't have some sort of injury asterisk next to his name, More help for Donovan. Although Reno Mahe is doubtful, with the way the Dexter Wynn has played, he may not have a job when he gets healthy anyway.

Philadelphia's defense is statistically average at 12th over all (14th pass and rush). But they get the job done. They one of the better Give-Away/Take-Away margins at +14, but are one of those defenses that are not particularly efficient. Having only 4 defensive scores on 26 take-aways. There again, they kill drives with those forced fumbles and interceptions and they do produce points from the conversions.

Washington newly appointed QB Patrick Ramsey is getting the job done better than last year. But he is still seeing the turf too many times. This is a guy with all the makings of a good quarterback and yet Spurrier and now Gibbs keep putting him in behind an obviously deficient line that cannot keep him safe. In 5 games he has played he has been sacked 14 times. That's nearly half of the number of times he hit the ground in 14 games last season. Gibbs, your back in the NFL, not stock cars. You're also in the NFC and stand no chance of seeing the playoffs. Put Tim Hasselbeck in and save the one thing that you have going for you for next season, when you (or whoever is leading the charge) can build a line that can do something in the form of pass protection. RB Clinton Portis gained 148 yards on the ground, but it was against a Giants team that allows about 138. So take that for what it's worth. The receivers aren't really worth mentioning, when the QB actually has time to throw the ball neither Coles nor Gardner have done anything spectacular. Ok, Gardner has 5 TD's but, save for one game, has gained minimal yardage. Coles is as likely to drop the ball as catch it, so counting on him is like tossing the dice and hoping for snake eyes. But there is the Defense.

The Redskins defense is good, period. 16.8 points a game, 257.4 totals yards – 86.8 rushing 170.7 passing – gives them the overall ranking of #2 with the 3rd best rush and pass D in the league. With Shawn Springs, Sean Taylor, Ryan Clark and Fred Smoot lined up in the secondary they have the ability reek havoc on a passing game. The D may also get a bit of a boost, morally if not physically, with the possible return of LB LaVar Arrington. His impact on the field has to be in question however, considering that he has been sidelined for virtually the entire season with his knee problems. Despite everything that they have going for them on D it seems unlikely that they can do enough to keep the Eagles from another wide margin win.

My Online Betting Action: The Eagles -9

The Detroit Lions (5-7) at The Green Bay Packers (7-5)
Against the Spread: Lions 6-6-0 | Packers 5-7-0
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Packers -9.5 -103 Over/Under 44.5u -110
Current High NFL Betting Line: Packers -11 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line Packers -9.5 -106 to -110
Over/Under 43.5u to 45u -110 to +113

The Lions, after losing a series of close games capped of by week 12's 41-9 routing by the Colts, had to feel like they had finally accomplished something. Since it was against the then 4-7 Cardinals, what it was exactly that they accomplished is anyones guess, but it was at least a moral victory as well as a W. QB Joey Harrington didn't really play that well, going 15 of 27 for 196 yards 1 touchdown and an interception. WR Roy Williams had a bit better of a game than he has of late , snagging 4 for 76 yards and Tai Streets got 3 for 54 yards and a touchdown. But this offense wasn't about the passing game it was all about the running back. Rookie Kevin Jones gained 218 yards, 196 on the ground and 22 in the air. He pulled them out of a couple jams in 3rd down situations and all around played a great game. Let us not forget the other major factor in this win, Jason Hanson. He was 4-4 with 2 from 35+ and 2 from 40+ with a long of 45. When Detroit got him in range he came through in spades.

Detroit's defense had their best game of the season. They picked rookie QB John Navarre 4 times. Kept him under the 50% completion mark (18 of 40) and allowed him just 160 yards. Cb Dre` Bly got two of those interceptions while LB Teddy Lehman and DE James Hall -with a little help from fellow DE Kalimba Edwards- accounted for the other two. With legendary, future Hall of Fame RB, Emmitt Smith (For you Preston) sidelined with a toe injury, the Lions had no trouble manhandling rookie RB Larry Croom, holding him to only 49 yards on 18 carries.

The Packers walked out of Veterans Stadium with their tails tucked firmly between their legs, being embarrassed by the Eagles in a 47-17 thrashing. QB Brett Favre threw 2 interceptions, the first midway in the 1st quarter the second just at the start of the 2nd quarter, which lead to the first scores for the Eagles. Favre's touchdown a game streak ended at 37 furthering his on field depression. Although Ahman Green did play, he was not a factor. Obviously still sore and afraid of being hit in the chest, he managed only 37 yards on 11 carries and only caught 3 passes for minimal yardage. As bad as that was, it was his lack of blocking prowess that hurt at least as much. There is good news to report. Ahman is healthy as is his backup/blocker Najeh Devenport. All the receivers are good to go and with the exception of C Grey Ruegamer, who is expected to play, the entire O line is healthy. This should make things considerably more comfortable for Favre. Plus they are at home and Detroit is just the kind of team you want to meet up with for a rebound win.

The Packers defense is lackluster at best. S Darren Sharper should be quicker this week. CB Ahmad Carroll is coming around, slowly but surely. His counterpart, CB Al Harris is good to harass whoever has the displeasure of lining up across from him. Mark Roman is always a bother running free in the middle. Tackle Grady Jackson is still bothered by his knee but will play. The thing that the Pacs' are going to miss the most this week will be the sidelined Na'il Diggs who was really starting to strut his stuff from th OL position with his speed and agility. All the same they are not playing a juggernaut of an offense in the Detroit Lions.

My Online Betting Action: The Packers -9.5

The rest of my picks are small wagers and will simply be posted as is with who gets my wagering dollars

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Picks of The Week 14

Duty is ours, results are God's
John Quincy Adams

That is not a shameless, without forethought quote. The meaning is obvious and true, if not in context.

The Match-Ups this week, for the most part, mean something. That means hog wild betting with hopes the blind squirrel will find a few acorns.

Starting with best to worst:

The Cincinnati Bengals (6-6) at The New England Patriots (11-1)
Against the Spread: Bengals 5-6-1 | Patriots 9-1-2
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Patriots -10.5 -103 Over/Under 44u +102
Current High NFL Betting Line: Patriots -12 -105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Patriots -11 -110
Over/Under 44u -110

Anyone who reads this drivel knows that rarely is there a post about a Bengals game, this is the exception to the rule.

Cincinnati in the newly able hands of QB Carson Palmer have done better. Note BETTER, not good. Despite having tossed for 382 yards and 3 touchdowns plus the come from behind drive to set them up for the win, he still managed to find a way to make a bone headed plays and give one up to Reed. RB, Rudi Johnson, returned to his former self, gaining just 56 yards on 19 carries. It was against the very tough defense of the Ravens. But the are going up against an even tougher D in the Patriots (never mind the stats, they are better). WR's Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh are phenomenal receivers, no doubt. Then again so is the hodge podge crew that makes up the secondary for the Pats'.

Defensively the Bengals have showed, off and on, some ability. But it is just too inconsistent to expect to play up to the level that is needed to stay afoot with the likes of New England's Offense. Also, have a peak at the Bengals Injury List. Slowing Corey Dillon down is going to be a mighty big obstacle to overcome. Not to mention keeping down the passing game that is tough to stop. With Cincinnati's premier CB, Deltha O'Neil downgraded to questionable with an ankle injury, this task is made even harder.

The Patriots seem to be the team to beat this year. QB Tom Brady just does the right things, nearly all the time. He now has a completely healthy receiving corp and the running back in Corey Dillon that they have been waiting for. How much can be said of the return of WR Deion Branch, who in just 4½ games has amassed 282 yards and 2 touchdowns. This with him playing hurt for two of those games. You could go on and on, but the ATS speaks for itself. This team wins and wins big!

My Online Betting Action: The Patriots -11 Over 44

The Indianapolis Colts (9-3) at The Houston Texans (5-7)
Against the Spread: Colts 8-3-1 | Texans 6-6-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Colts -10 -102 Over/Under 56.5u -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Colts -11.5 -100
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Colts -10.5 -110 to -115
Over/Under 56.5u to 57u -110

The Colts have determined that their best defense is offense. And they do it well. QB Payton Manning is on his way to breaking every quarterbacks record (some of which he has already done, sorry Marino). He has possibly the best two wide-outs to date in Marvin Harrison and Brandon Stokley. Reggie Wayne isn't any slouch either, mind you. RB Edgerrin James is getting the job done well enough for Manning to pull off his play-action, although watching him do it makes you wonder if he really needs a back to set that up. Man is he amazing with that. Plus you have an O line that is protecting him in the pocket, giving him ample time to look through his receivers, much to Harrison's chagrin.

The Colts defense, well when you can put up 45 points a game, it doesn't seem worth mentioning. However, they have come up with some good late game play that has kept teams from making any kind of comeback.

QB David Carr, with WR's Andre Johnson and Jabar Gaffney, started this season as one of the most explosive and underrated offenses in the NFL. Those days seem to have passed. After being pounded by Denver then pummeled by Indy. They managed to stay in the game against an Ahman-less Green Bay, but still lost 16-13. RB Domanick Davis finally had the game that they had been waiting for in the following week against the Titans, rushing for a season high 129 yards. This was his first 100 yarder so far. Again, it was against the Titans who allow about 120 yards a game on the ground, so putting much stock in that is dubious. His next foe, the Jets, put him back were he belongs. A middle of the road back who, in all likelihood, will not see numbers like he produced in his rookie year again. Oh, and they got hammered, 29-7 with Pennington playing at about 70%.

Believe it or not, the Colts out rank them on D. They give up 24.1 a game, to the Colts 21.9, baffling isn't it. They allow about 244 in the air and about 121 on the ground. That puts them near the bottom of the barrel, with a total of around 365 yards a game. They rank 29th overall - 20th against the rush, 28th against the pass - those numbers are probably not going to be elevated after this game.

My Online Betting Action: The Colts -10.5

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-7) at The San Diego Chargers (9-3)
Against the Spread: Buccaneers 5-5-2 | Chargers 9-1-2
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Chargers -5.5 +101 Over/Under 43u -112
Current High NFL Betting Line: Chargers -6 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Chargers -4.5 –115
Over/Under 43u -110

The Buccaneers have started to play this game like it matters. They are showing signs of the Bucs' we learned to love or hate a couple of seasons ago. To be honest though, you have to look at their opponents over the last few games to put that seeming resurgence into perspective. Against KC in an offense laden battle, they came up with the field goal victory 34-31. That was followed by a loss to Atlanta by 10. A rebound versus the pathetic 49ers bolstered them some as they walked away with a 35-3 win. This was to be followed by a 21-14 loss to a very mediocre Carolina Panthers, who started QB Jake Delhomme with a broken thumb on his throwing arm. They did come up big at home against Atlanta in the rematch, beating them 27-goose egg. However, even though Atlanta is 9-3, they certainly don't play like a 9-3 team. So you have to take that win with a grain of salt.

Tampa's defense, at least against the pass, is a serious threat. The are ranked #1 in that category and 3rd overall. The D against the rush is a horse of a different color. Sitting proudly at 22nd they aren't much of a threat against a decent blocking O line and an RB that can take advantage of it. LaDainian Tomlinson behind one of the best offensive lines in the league can.

San Diego's offense struggled a bit last week against the Broncos. It was a tough game with a lot at stake for both teams. In fact it was just what you would expect in a division rivalry with the division leader being decided by the outcome. For once TE Antonio Gates was not the stud that he has been all season, although he still got in the fray and made some key catches (3rd and 10 to keep a scoring drive alive), just not the big ones and not in the endzone. QB Drew Brees had his least productive game of the season, completing on 14 of his 27 attempts and getting a meager 106 yards. He threw his 1st INT in 194 passes, but it was still only his 4th of the season. This game was the LaDainian Tomlinson - 113 yards and 2 touchdowns against the 7th rushing D - San Diego defensive show.

The Chargers D did all the right things at all the right times. Denver was only able to convert 4 of their 14 3rd down attempts. The Chargers picked QB Jake Plummer's pocket 4 times resulting in 10 points. He was sacked twice and did not throw a touchdown for only the second time this year. Although he did get 278 yards he was only 40% going 16 of 40. RB Reuben Droughns was held to 38 yards on 14 carries but did managed to get into the endzone once. Bottom line, Chargers defense played one of their best games in, arguably, their toughest match-up.

The Chargers should be able to pass against the Bucs', and the rushing game should be as solid as ever.

My Online Betting Action: The Chargers -4.5

Sorry to piecemeal these, but there are my top 3 picks and will be my big bets this week. The rest are soon to follow. I know all three of you are anxiously awaiting my humble opinions.

Thursday, December 09, 2004

NFL Pick of the Week Against the Spread - Betting Lines Week 14

The Chicago Bears (5-7) at The Jacksonville Jaguars (6-6)
Against the Spread: Bears 6-6-0 | Jaguars 7-5-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: Jaguars -8 -105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Jaguars -7 -110 to -120
Over/Under 34u to 34.5u -110

Recent Trends

•Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
•CHI is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in Dec.
•CHI is 4-2 ATS in their last six road games.
•Under is 6-1 in JAC last seven games in Dec.
•Under is 8-1 in JAC last nine home games.
•Jags are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 at home.

The Cincinnati Bengals (6-6) at The New England Patriots (11-1)
Against the Spread: Bengals 5-6-1 | Patriots 9-1-2
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Patriots -10.5 -103 Over/Under 44u +102
Current High NFL Betting Line: Patriots -12 -105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Patriots -11 -110
Over/Under 44u -110

Recent Trends

•CIN is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.
•CIN is 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven overall.
•Over is 8-2 in CIN last 10 road games.
•NE is 23-4-3 ATS in their last 30 overall.
•Pats' last three home games have played under.
•Over is 6-3 in the last nine meetings.

The Cleveland Browns (3-9) at The Buffalo Bills (6-6)
Against the Spread: Browns 4-8-0 | Bills 8-4-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bills -12.5 -100
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bills -11 -108 to -110
Over/Under 38u -110
Still OTB at most Online Sportsbooks

Recent Trends

•Browns are 0-5 ATS in their last five overall.
•CLE is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 as a dog.
•Over is 3-0 in CLE last three road games.
•BUF is 7-2 ATS in their last nine overall.
•Over is 5-0 in BUF last five home games.
•Under is 7-2 in BUF last nine games in Dec.

The Indianapolis Colts (9-3) at The Houston Texans (5-7)
Against the Spread: Colts 8-3-1 | Texans 6-6-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Colts -10 -102 Over/Under 56.5u -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Colts -11.5 -100
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Colts -10.5 -110 to -115
Over/Under 56.5u to 57u -110

Recent Trends

•Over is 9-3 in the Colts last 12 overall.
•Indy is 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
•IND ranks 1st in offense with 426.1 yds/gm.
•Under is 8-2 in HOU last 10 games in Dec.
•HOU is 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.
•Under is 2-0 in the last two meetings in HOU.

The New Orleans Saints (4-8) at The Dallas Cowboys (5-7)
Against the Spread: Saints 4-8-0 | Cowboys 5-7-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: Cowboys -8.5 -105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Cowboys -6.5 -120
Over/Under 47.5u to 48u -110

Recent Trends

•NO is 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.
•Under is 5-2 in NO last seven games in Dec.
•Over is 6-2 in NO last eight road games.
•Cowboys are 3-6 ATS in their last nine overall.
•Under is 5-2 in DAL last seven games in Dec.
•Under is 6-3 in the last nine meetings.

The N.Y. Giants (5-7) at The Baltimore Ravens (7-5)
Against the Spread: Giants 5-7-0 | Ravens 8-4-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Ravens -9.5 -105 Over/Under 33u -110
Current High NFL Betting Line: Ravens -11.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Ravens -9.5 -110
Over/Under 33u to 33.5u -110

Recent Trends

•Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
•Giants are on a five game losing streak ATS.
•Under is 8-3 in NYG last 11 overall.
•BAL is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 overall.
•Over is 9-3 in BAL last 12 home games.
•BAL is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.

The Oakland Raiders (4-8) at The Atlanta Falcons (9-3)
Against the Spread: Raiders 4-8-0 | Falcons 5-7-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Falcons -7.5 +103 Over/Under 45.5u -112
Current High NFL Betting Line: Falcons -9 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Falcons -7.5 -110
Over/Under 45.5u to 46u -110

Recent Trends

•OAK is 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.
•OAK is 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 overall.
•Over is 5-1 in OAK last six overall.
•Under is 16-5 in ATL last 21 overall.
•ATL is 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
•Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

The Seattle Seahawks (6-6) at The Minnesota Vikings (7-5)
Against the Spread: Seahawks 4-8-0 | Vikings 7-5-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: Vikings -7.5 +105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Vikings -6.5 -110 to -115
Over/Under 51u to 52u -110 to -113

Recent Trends

•Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
•Over is 8-1 in SEA last nine overall.
•SEA is 1-8 ATS in their last nine overall.
•MIN is 6-3 ATS in their last nine overall.
•Under is 4-0 in MIN last four home games.
•MIN is 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings.

The Miami Dolphins (2-10) at The Denver Broncos (7-5)
Against the Spread: Dolphins 4-8-0 | Broncos 4-5-3
Game Time: 4:05 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Broncos -11 -105 Over/Under 38u -109
Current High NFL Betting Line: Broncos -13 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Broncos -11 -110
Over/Under 38.5u -110

Recent Trends

•MIA is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
•Over is 7-0 in MIA last seven overall.
•MIA is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games in Dec.
•Under is 7-2-2 in Broncos last 11 overall.
•Under is 3-0 in DEN last three games in Dec.
•Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.

The N.Y. Jets (9-3) at The Pittsburgh Steelers (11-1)
Against the Spread: Jets 7-4-1 | Steelers 7-4-1
Game Time: 4:05 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Steelers -5.5 -111 Over/Under 35.5u -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Steelers -7 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Steelers -5.5 -115
Over/Under 35.5u to 36u -104 to -110

Recent Trends

•Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
•NYJ are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in Dec.
•Under is 7-3 in NYJ last 10 overall.
•Steelers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 overall.
•Under is 5-0 in PIT last five overall.
•PIT is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.

The Detroit Lions (5-7) at The Green Bay Packers (7-5)
Against the Spread: Lions 6-6-0 | Packers 5-7-0
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Packers -9.5 -103 Over/Under 44.5u -110
Current High NFL Betting Line: Packers -11 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line Packers -9.5 -106 to -110
Over/Under 43.5u to 45u -110 to +113

Recent Trends

•Over is 4-2 in the last six meetings.
•DET is 5-2 ATS in their last seven on the road.
•DET is 3-0 ATS in their last three games in Dec.
•Over is 7-1 in the Packers last eight overall.
•Packers are 2-4 ATS in their last six home games.
•GB is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings at home.

The San Fransisco 49ers (1-11) at The Arizona Cardinals (4-8)
Against the Spread: 49ers 5-7-0 | Cardinals 6-6-0
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Cardinals -6 -105 Over/Under 37u -112
Current High NFL Betting Line: Cardinals -8 –110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Cardinals -5.5 -110
Over/Under 37u -110

Recent Trends

•SF is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.
•49ers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 overall.
•Under is 4-2 in SF last six overall.
•Over is 7-2 in ARI last nine overall.
•ARI is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.
•Under is 3-0 in the last three meetings in ARI.

The St. Louis Rams (6-6) at The Carolina Panthers (5-7)
Against the Spread: Rams 3-8-1 | Panthers 7-5-0
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: Panthers -7.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Panthers -6.5 –110
Over/Under 44u -110

Recent Trends

•Over is 3-0 in the last three meetings.
•Over is 8-3 in the Rams last 11 overall.
•STL is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in Dec.
•Over is 5-1 in CAR last six overall.
•CAR is 5-1 ATS in their last six overall.
•CAR is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-7) at The San Diego Chargers (9-3)
Against the Spread: Buccaneers 5-5-2 | Chargers 9-1-2
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Chargers -5.5 +101 Over/Under 43u -112
Current High NFL Betting Line: Chargers -6 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Chargers -4.5 –115
Over/Under 43u -110

Recent Trends

•Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
•Under is 17-6 in TB last 23 overall.
•TB is 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine road games.
•SD is 10-1-2 ATS in their last 13 overall.
•Over is 9-2 in SD last 11 home games.
•SD is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

The Philadelphia Eagles (11-1) at The Washington Redskins (4-8)
Against the Spread: Eagles 9-3-0 | Redskins 5-7-0
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET ESPN Night Game
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Eagles -9 -107 Over/Under 37.5u -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Eagles -10.5 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Eagles -9 -104 to -110
Over/Under 37.5u -110

Recent Trends

•PHI is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
•Under is 8-3 in PHI last 11 overall.
•Eagles are 9-3 ATS so far this season.
•Under is 9-3 in WAS last 12 overall.
•WAS is 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
•Under is 6-3-1 in the last 10 meetings.

The Kansas City Chiefs (4-8) at The Tennessee Titans (4-8)
Against the Spread: Chiefs 4-8-0 | Titans 4-8-0
Game Time: Monday 9:00 PM ET ABC Monday Night Football
Opening NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: Titans -2 -102 to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Titans -2 -102 to -110
Over/Under 52u -110
Still OTB at most Online Sportsbooks And is there any question why...?

Recent Trends

•KC is 1-4 ATS in their last five overall.
•Over is 7-2 in KC last nine road games.
•Over is 12-3 in KC last 15 games in Dec.
•TEN is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 overall.
•Over is 5-1 in TEN last six games in Dec.
•Over is 6-3 in the last nine meetings.

Wednesday, December 08, 2004

NFL Against the Spread – Cincinnati Bengals Special Report

The Cincinnati Bengals have played good defensive and offensive ball, just not during the same game.

The Bengals defense was good against the Pittsburgh Steelers. They were the first team to make rookie Ben Roethlisberger look like a rookie, putting him on his hindquarters 7 times costing him 54 yards. This was the most pressure that young Ben has seen in his star studded debut. But Cincinnati's rookie, Carson Palmer, fared much worse, as their seemingly inept offense failed to produce a single point in the last 34 minutes of play. This was exacerbated by very rookie mistakes at quarter back.

The first was made about mid way through the second quarter when Palmer, taking the snap in shotgun formation from the Bengals 4, looked up receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh, who was in obvious triple coverage. Apparently unaware of what the consequences of throwing it to him anyway may be, Carson delivered a quick strike into the awaiting arms of linebacker, James Farrior. Farrior, completely aware of the situation, returned the interception the 14 yards needed for the touchdown.

Strike One.

With just over 3 minutes to play Palmer was sacked on 1-10 from Cincinnati's 9 yard line for a 1 yard loss. But that wasn't the end. In keeping with what he had already established as the norm, Palmer, again from shotgun, got the snap and then proceeded to through the ball away when the pressure came. The problem was, he was still in the pocket and got called for his third intentional grounding of the half. This gave the Steelers the 2 point safety and the ball back, stifling any hopes the Bengals may have been entertaining about a come from behind victory.

Strikes Two and Three.

This did have some positive effects however.

For the first time since taking over as Head Coach, Marvin Lewis was visibly shaken. This was furthered evidenced by his verbal outrage, made publicly, about the poor play of his offense. Bengal's right tackle, Willie Anderson, got to the heart of the problem with his statement that, “To win games like this and to beat teams like this, football has to be your life. And offensively, it's really not our life. We're putting the work in, but it's the extra stuff you have to do ... We let (Lewis) down.” This was something from the heart, made by a player who has not been shy with his opinions about the coaching staff in his 9 years as a Bengal.

So we fast forward to November 28th and a meeting with long time rivals, The Cleveland Browns.

Carson Palmer took his second snap of the game and, throwing into well covered territory, tried to hit Houshmandzadeh for a 21 yard pass. Once again that plan went awry when conerback, Anthony Henry, decided he was in better position for the catch. Lewis, along with about 60,000 fans, had the sinking feeling that it was going to be another long day for the offense. Could they have been more wrong?

What followed can only be described as the single most spectacular display of offense that this fan has ever witnessed. In the second highest scoring game in NFL history the Browns Kelly Holcomb threw for 413 yards, 5 touchdowns and lost! Palmer's 251 yards on 22 completions looked downright pathetic by comparison. He did manage to find the endzone on four occasions but also found the opponents hands a good target 3 too many times. The standout for Cincinnati in this “Made for Madden” game was the performance of running back, Rudi Johnson.

Johnson averaged over 120 yards a game in his first six as the featured back (2003). This led Bengals fans everywhere to believe that with him, Corey Dillon could go away and never be thought of again. That belief was furthered by the drafting of Chris Perry out of Michigan (Wolverines), who had all the earmarks of a great all purpose back. Those beliefs were dashed against the rocks as Perry saw injury lead to injury and Johnson not producing numbers to solidify him as the back of the future in Cincinnati. That was prior to the Cleveland game.

After only three 100+ rushing games, Johnson carried the rock 26 times for 202 yards. He averaged nearly 8 yards a carry and saw the endzone twice. Does that mean that he is the back of the future for Cincinnati? Time will only tell, but thoughts are leaning towards a no.

The problem, if it's not already obvious, in this game was the utter lack of defense in the secondary. Again, Holcomb threw for 413 yards and 5 touchdowns. Brown's RB, William Green, may not have had a good day, gaining only 75 yards on 15 carries, but did find the redzone once. With the passing game clicking like it was, no one cared that they weren't very effective on the ground. Antonio Bryant had 8 grabs for 131 yards and 2 touchdowns, Dennis Northcutt snagged 5 for 87 yards, and the standout of the day, TE Steve Heiden, eclipsed everything he had done to date getting 7 catches for 82 yards and 3 touchdowns.

The offense still didn't mesh however. Palmer still threw 3 interceptions, all of which were converted into points. But that really wasn't the heart of the problem in this game, it was the innumerable missed tackles and broken coverages. This by a defense that in weeks prior had looked like the next big thing.

Repeat, good defense, good offense, just not during the same game.

Jumping ahead to Cincinnati versus Baltimore.

This seemed like an open and shut case for young Palmer and crew, and yet it wasn't. There were things that happened in the Cleveland game the Carson carried onto the field Sunday. He discovered how to look off a safety. This is what made Staubach, Montana, Marino, and dare I say it Elway, the players that they were. They all had one thing in common, they could read defenses and they could look off coverage. Palmer got a taste of what success that can bring you against Cleveland. He took that knowledge with him to Baltimore were he made a concerted effort to apply his newly acquired skill. It seemed to pay off.

With 80% of his passes completed, he hit his receivers, namely Chad Johnson and T.J Houshmandzadeh, for 382 yards and 3 touchdowns. His only mistake was an over thrown ball that found it's way into to the hands of Ravens safety Ed Reed. Does this mean that he is the next Montana or Marino? Doubtful, but it does mean that he his learning how the game is played and more importantly how to do the things that you have to if you hope to have success as a quarterback in the NFL.

As good as the offense played, it was the emergence of the defense through a whole game that made the victory possible. Finally both parts worked on the same day.

Lewis smiled during his press conference. Houshmandzadeh smiled in the locker room. Johnson smiled on his way to the bank. And Willie, well Willie just smiled.

Tuesday, December 07, 2004

Jerry Rice Does it Again

Sports doen't build great character, it reveals it.

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Rice sets his 35th NFL record, this one for combined yards
(12-06) 18:29 PST SEATTLE (AP)

Jerry Rice became the NFL's career leader in combined net yards Monday night, catching a 27-yard touchdown pass from Seattle quarterback Matt Hasselbeck to boost his 20-year total to 23,351 yards.

It was the 35th NFL record for Rice, and the score put the Seahawks up 7-0 over Dallas. Fans chanted "Jerry, Jerry, Jerry" as he ran to the sideline.

The 42-year-old Rice went into the game needing seven yards -- receiving, rushing or on a kick return -- to pass Brian Mitchell's record of 23,330 yards.

Rice, who began his career with San Francisco in 1985, already is the NFL's all-time leader in receptions, yards receiving and touchdowns. His 14 seasons with at least 1,000 yards receiving and 75 100-yard receiving games also are NFL records.

---

Monday, December 06, 2004

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Monday Night Football

After a solid start to the weekend that had me sitting at 2-0-1 I had to tempt fate and re-examine what I already knew to be a troublesome game.

Pittsburgh V Jacksonville.

Well now I'm 2-1-1, but thankfully hit on my two big wagers (Pats' and Bills) pushed on a medium wager and only lost a small wager.

Lesson learned!

Tonight, Nada...

I didn't like this game from the get go.

The Dallas Cowboys (4-7) at The Seattle Seahawks (6-5)
Against the Spread: Cowboys 4-7-0 | Seahawks 4-7-1
Game Time: Monday 9:00 PM ET ABC Monday Night Football
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Seahawks -6 Over/Under 42.5 -103
Current High NFL Betting Line: Seahawks -8 -120
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Seahawks -7 -100 to -110
Over/Under 42.5u to 43.5u -110

Seattle has all the material to hand a very shoddy looking Dallas Sowboys a thorough thrashing and somewhat solidify their lead in the NFC West. But with the NFC so wide open, a win gets Dallas right back into the mathematical equation. They would then be tied for second place in the East, and actually have a shot at a wild-card berth.

RB Shaun Alexander has the Seahawks running game ranked at 6th and should see continued success against the mid-pack run D of Dallas (14th). WR Darrell Jackson looks like he is TRYING to lose his starting spot, dropping key passes in all of the last 4 games. Then again, he may find the handle and have a good night against a below average pass D (20th). QB Matt Hasselbeck looked like the Chosen One last year, and by all rights, started the season off in like fashion. Since week 4 however, his numbers have continued to slip leaving him with pathetic rating of 72.6 and a completion percentage just north of 50%. Part of that has been poor play by his wide-outs, but not all of it.

Coach Mike Holmgren has got to be a bit worried as well. Seeing that his front office has put a lot of faith and responsibility in his hands (per his request), not to mention a few $'s, and now there are rumors that he is on the proverbial “Hot Seat”.

Seattle's defense is lacking to say the least. The addition of Defensive Coordinator, Ray Rhodes, was supposed to increase the production of the D. So far that has not gone as planned. CB Marcus Trufant has been burned numerous times and has only banked 3 INT's. On the other side Ken Lucas has seen a bit more success with his 5 interceptions, but has also been cooked like a goose on more than one occasion. With only 25 sacks they don't pose a serious threat to O lines trying to protect their QB's. The Seahawks run stopping ability is a little better, but is still letting backs get 100+ on them.

Dallas showed a little spark of life, particularly on the ground, against Chicago on Turkeyday. That was against Chicago, a team that allows about 140 yards a game on the ground. Just the same, rookie RB Julius Jones did look good in his second game as an NFL back. WR Keyshawn Johnson continues to impress this fan, as he is still willing to stretch out across the middle to get the catch. Alligator Arms is a foreign phrase to that 9 year vet. A whole lot can be said about Keyshawn, afraid isn't one of them. AARP qualifying QB Vinny Testaverde, looks great for about a quarter and a half, then oldtimers creeps in and he forgets what he's doing. In all fairness to Vinny, he was promised by Parcells that he would not have to worry about getting hit, that he would get protection up front. Parcells has yet to deliver on that one. TE Jason Whitten has been the only other real threat that the Cowboys have shown in the passing game and as good as he may be, he certainly isn't a Gates or Gonzalez.

Defensively, what happened? This was supposed to be the defense that all others strive to achieve. If allowing 26 points on 330+ yards, having the fewest tackles and only 14 take-aways is what you're are looking for, you've found your role model. Even though they are statistically “middle of the road” (16th), they really don't play like that. Their opponents have just been easy on them, with only 2 teams running the score up (Vikings and Eagles).

Bottom line, this game is scary from a handicappers perspective.

Seattle should win but expecting them to cover 7 is a tall order.
Dallas could win, but expecting them not to lose by more than 7 is equally challenging.

The Over at 42.5 may not be a complete waste of money...

My Online Betting Action: None

Sunday, December 05, 2004

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting ESPN Sunday Night Football

The Pittsburgh Steelers (10-1) at The Jacksonville Jaguars (6-5)
Against the Spread: Steelers 7-3-1 | Jaguars 6-5-0
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET ESPN Sunday Night Football
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Steelers -3 -103 Over/Under 35u -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Steelers -3.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Steelers -3 -110 to -115
Over/Under 35u -110

At First glance this game just looked too dangerous for action. But, after a closer examination, the Steelers look good for a smallish wager.

QB Ben Roethlisberger showed some “rookieness” in the last couple of games but kept it together enough for Pittsburgh to get the wins. More importantly was how he did sans his favorite target, WR Plaxico Burress, as well as RB Duce Staley. Tonight will see the return of Staley, and maybe(?!) Burress. RB Jerome Bettis has proven that can still be a problem for defenses and with Staley back he won’t have to work quite as much.

The Steelers defense is solid to say the least, allowing only 15 points a game. They are in the top 3 in pass defense, with a bunch of takeaways vs. very few giveaways (+12) with a good chunk of those turned directly into touchdowns (3 on INT’s, 4 on fumbles). When it comes to the run D there is no better. Allowing only about 79 yards a game on the ground this will be a critical ingredient to this match-up.

Jacksonville QB Byron Leftwich's performance in his return to the starting line-up last week was unremarkable. He ended the day 19 of 34 for 235 yards and a TD. RB Fred Taylor had more success, gaining 147 yards on 22 carries, but was kept out of the endzone. This was against a very poor defense in the Vikings. The Jaguars will need to markedly improve in those areas if they hope to stay in this game for 4 quarters.

On the other side of the ball however, Jacksonville can stand a little taller. They have the ability to slow down the ground game and are moderately effective against the pass. The question marks here are going to be can they contain Staley and Bettis, and force Roethlisberger into a game where he has to throw to win? That they gave up 100+ to the very weak rushing game of Minnesota and to the Chris Brown-less Titans shouldn't have them feeling very comfortable about their ability to stop the assault that they will face against Pittsburgh.

Two possible ways on this game, the Under and the Steelers.

My Online Betting Action: The Steelers -3

Anna Kournikova poses for NFL Pick of the Week

Saturday, December 04, 2004

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Picks of The Week 13

Fully expecting to grind out a good old healthy dose of rambling statistics and analysis' I fired up my browsers and various other electronic tools, opened a new text document and started to type. After about 30 min. of doing just that I realized how tough this weekend was going to be too handicap.

Trying to bang out a good post in a sitting just wasn't going to happen. With the way things are sitting now there are only a few games that I think have wagering potential and even those need more scrutiny before getting my stamp of approval, or my $$$.

So there is my lame excuse for not having this done and up last-night.

BTW, someone please tell me if I'm missing something obvious this weekend.

Is it just me or do the Eagles seem like too good of a pick to be true? Same question with Minnesota.

The Buffalo Bills (5-6) at The Miami Dolphins (2-9)
Against the Spread: Bills 7-4-0 | Dolphins 4-7-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Bills -3.5 -115 Over/Under 35.5 -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bills -4 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bills -3 -130
Over/Under 34.5u -110

The Bills have put together a facsimile of an offense in spite of QB Drew Bledsoe's sub par performance (13 TD's 14 INT's). RB Willis McGahee has rushed for a 100+ yards in 5 of his 6 games as the featured back. He has arguably been the sole reason for the five W's Buffalo has this season. They have a good defense, but it isn't a points producing D. Heaven knows that having a QB that plays catch with the opposing team hasn't gotten it done. When McGahee gets in the 100+ range the Bills win ball games. That sounds like a truism applicable to any team in the NFL, but it is a statistical fact in Buffalo's case.

Buffalo's defense does get the job done, make no mistake. They are ranked 3rd overall and are pretty well balanced at 4th and 7th against the rush and pass, respectively. Again it's worth noting that although they are solid they don't score points, having only 2 to their credit.

So the question is then boiled down to a pretty simple one. Can the O line do the job against the Dolphins and open things up for McGahee?

Easier said than done? Miami has the 6th ranked overall defense. That number is a bit misleading however, as they are only 29th against the rush. The Dolphins do have a couple of the best corners in the league with Patrick Surtain and Sam Madison. Their safeties, Arturo Freeman and Sammy Knight, are no slouches either. These guys, along with a solid D line, can shut down a passing game. At least on paper they look good right up to the point of the W's. Looking at their Win/Loss columns tells a bit of a different picture. Offensive Nightmare.

The Dolphins extraordinary losses this season has cost them dearly when it comes to the offense. Wanny stepping down and Jim Bates being named as interim Head Coach has done very little to change the the overall problems that Miami has. QB Jay Fiedler has to be privately sighing in relief that he has been placed on IR for the rest of the season (wonder if he got a congratulatory phone call from Wanny). Meanwhile QB A.J. Feeley better hope his butt isn't too sore, he may very well be spending a good portion of the game on it.

Bills passing ineptitude is a wash versus the complete offensive ineptitude of the Dolphins. Bills took their first meeting by 7, no reason to think that they can't hold their own in this one as well.

There is also the fact that with an ATS of 7-4 and only giving 3 pts. It's not a stretch to go with the Bills on that basis alone.

My Online Betting Action: The Bills -3

The Houston Texans (5-6) at The N.Y. Jets (8-3)
Against the Spread: Texans 6-5-0 | Jets 6-4-1
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: Jets -8 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Jets -7 -105 to -110
Over/Under 41u -110

Going to put my friend and fellow Sports Blogger Brian Bassett of The NY Jets Blog on the spot this week. I really like the Jets and think that QB Chad Pennington has the brains and talent to do great things if he can stay healthy and WR's Justin McCariens and Santana Moss continue to live up to expectations.

Herm Edwards is a good defensive minded Head Coach, but there are times when his decision making has been questionable offensively. With Defensive Rookie of the Year hopeful, ML Jonathan Vilma leading the way, the Jets D has been an effective, if seemingly quiet, unit.

The Texans have been streaky, but in a scary way, not in the New Orleans fashion. With a lot of young talent on both sides of the ball, they have the potential to be a force in seasons to come. Even though this year is over for them they are highly unlikely to lay down, wanting to be a spoiler and prove a point through the rest of the season. This match-up has all the ear marks of just that kind of game.

7 points just seems too high a price to pay for the Jets.

Brian, help me out here and elaborate...

The New England Patriots (10-1) at The Cleveland Browns (3-8)
Against the Spread: Patriots 8-1-2 | Browns 4-7-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Patriots -7.5 -107 Over/Under 41.5u -101
Current High NFL Betting Line: Patriots -12 -105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Patriots -7.5 -110
Over/Under 39.5u to 41.5u -110

The Patriots are the best team in the NFL today. Rarely will comments of that nature come from me, but they have earned it. It can be said not because of their play in any one area, but rather because of the ability to adapt to situations, a superior coaching staff, namely Belichick and Crennel, and their play in all areas of the game. QB Tom Brady doesn't have a stellar completion percentage, nor an elite level QB Rating, but he is a leader who is smart on the field. Here is a QB that has thrown 18 TD's to his 8 INT's which means he doesn't do dumb stuff. RB Corey Dillon has been an outstanding asset to this team, giving them the ability to eat up clock and keep even the best of defenses questioning themselves, just ask Ray Lewis or Ed Reed of Baltimore. WR Deion Branch's return has been an obvious boost to their passing game.

New England has injuries through-out the secondary and are down to using WR's as package guys to make up for it. Yet they have 14 interceptions, 14 forced fumbles and a staggering 34 sacks (second in the NFL) to their credit. Opponents have to study more against them than they do against any other defense they face. This is primarily due to the fact that every game they come out on the field with a new way to disguise their defensive schemes. And they disguise them well. They made the best defense in the NFL (Ravens) look second best!

The Browns are in complete disarray both on the field and in the office. Scrambling to decide what to do at the QB position along with their front office woes has got to be factor in every game from here on out. Their “could have been” stud WR Andre Davis, who has been out of commission for the last several weeks, gave the Browns his walking papers. Rookie QB Luke McCown will get his NFL debut in the worst possible situation when he faces off against the Pat's pass rush. Never mind the fact that he reminds you of one David Klingler, drafted by Cincinnati some years ago, and who was a total bust. You know that look, deer in the headlights...

Oh yeah, almost forgot... they will also have a Rookie head coach, Terry Robiskie leading the charge.

Defensively what's really to be said. They gave up 58 points last week. 58! To the Bengals! With Carson Palmer and Rudi Johnson! Sorry about the “!”'s but what the heck... See my write-up about this game and the overall state of the Bengals Nation later this weekend over on another friend and Sports Blogger, Tom Schaller's Bronczilla.

Back to the point, they can't stop much of anything, at 26th against the rush and 14th against the pass they don't scare a powerhouse like that of they Patriots (never mind Belichick's remark about them being the best 3-8 team in the NFL). Additionally they have been hammered by good teams and it's been close against mediocre to bad teams (like Dallas or Washington). There is the exception which was the Browns V Bengals first meeting this season in which Cleveland walked away with a victory by 17 points

None of this really matters, this game seems an easy pick even with a 10pt. Spread. Cleveland just doesn't have what it takes this season and New England, barring anything major, is Super-Bowl Bound.

My Online Betting Action: The Patriots -8

The Denver Broncos (7-4) at The San Diego Chargers (8-3)
Against the Spread: Broncos 4-5-2 | Chargers 9-1-1
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Chargers -2.5 -118 Over/Under 47u -113
Current High NFL Betting Line: Chargers -3 -100 to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Chargers -2.5 -110
Over/Under 47u to 48u -110

The Chargers have made intelligent sports writers sound like broken records and less than intelligent ones sound like morons. QB Drew Brees, in typical contract year style, is out performing any and all expectations. He has a QB rating of 108, completion percentage of 65.8, and more amazingly than those numbers, has only 3 picks versus his 21 passing TD's. Along with TE Antonio Gates, who is second only to T.O. in receiving touchdowns, they have this offense sitting at #6 passing and are just a notch below the Colts in average points per game (29). RB LaDainian Tomlinson is a workhorse and even though his average per carry isn't very good (3.8yds) he gets the job done when needed. Being one of the best in 3rd down situations and the second highest scoring RB in the NFL (11 TD's. Priest is #1 w/14).

Defense is another matter altogether though.

San Diego has talent defensively, and can stop the rushing game cold. Their biggest issue is against the pass. This is only going to be compounded by the loss of CB Sammy Davis who fractured his leg last week in S.D.'s win over KC. The Chargers have subsequently signed CB Robb Butler to their active roster, and will be starting youngster Drayton Florence over on the right side. This is not the extent of their issues in the secondary by any means. Already lacking depth at the safety position, with only Terrence Kiel and Jerry Wilson producing numbers, having Wilson dinged up isn't going to help. Luckily they are at home and playing the haphazard offense of the Denver Broncos.

QB Jake Plummer is one of those players that makes you wonder who is going to show up at game-time. The one that throws for 400+ yards and 3 int's or the one that throws for 200+ yards and 4 td's. The difference with Plummer is that you may get both during any one game. Just look at what happened to them at home, in the snow, against the Raiders. Jake threw for 240+ yards and a TD, but also threw a pick (I know Tom, it was batted at the line) in the fourth quarter that resulted in an 11 point lead for Oakland. His problems could be exacerbated by the injuries to WR's Ashley Lelie and Rod Smith as well as RB Reuben Droughns.

Bottom line, both of these teams have a lot at stake in this game. If Denver can get the win they take over as AFC West leaders with a 4-1 divisional record and 2 wins over San Diego. But the stakes are equally as high for the Chargers, who looked like they were out of the playoff picture entirely a week ago. If they get the victory, they take a 2 game lead in the division, and leave Denver in the position of having other teams determine their post season hopes.

All that being said San Diego is the better team. They have been more consistent, have more talent in the RB and QB positions, and Antonio Gates has big play making ability the likes of which hasn't been seen in San Diego since the days of Air Coryell. Inconsistent play, lack of discipline and no stand out play-makers (argue about Lelie all you want) has been the order of the day in Denver.

Just looking at the ATS, at 4-5-2 Denver is not a good bet. The Chargers with the best ATS (9-1-1) are. With what's at stake and potentially Brees' future on the line, my money goes to the Chargers.

My Online Betting Action: The Chargers -3

Let the flaming begin...

That's it for Sunday. Next stop, Monday Night Football.