NFL Pick of the Week

Friday, December 24, 2004

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Picks of The Week 16

The NFL Friday Match-Up

The Green Bay Packers (8-6) at The Minnesota Vikings (8-6)
Against the Spread: Packers 5-9-0 | Vikings 7-7-0
Game Time: 3:00 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Vikings -3 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Vikings -3 -120
Over/Under 56u to 56.5u -110
Holy Mackerel what a game...

One thing is for sure, nothing...

The Over has all kinds of potential.

Neither Green Bay nor Minnesota can mount anything resembling a defense based on the way they have played the second half of the season.

Green Bay has allowed an average of 29 points a game in the last 3 and 25 in their last 6.

Minnesota has allowed an average of 26 points a game in the last 3 and 24.5 in their last 6.

When they last met the total was 65 with the Packers edging to the victory on Ryan Longwell's 33 yarder in the waining seconds of the game. But one must remember that game was played sans the Vikings star, wide receiver Randy Moss.

The Packer's are going into this game without a key situational receiver in Robert Ferguson. This is going to put a little more pressure on Antonio Chatman. The good news is that Chatman does have good hands and is a solid route runner, if maybe a bit to the small side. Let us not forget that the #2 Ranked WR, Javon Walker, will be a nice offset to the Vikings Randy Moss.

Najeh Davenport is still bothered with his ribs, but Ahman Green appears to be well healed, having gained 94 yards on 15 carries against the stout rushing D of Jacksonville.

Green Bay's defense is much as it has been for the better part of the season, in disarray and banged up. Grady Jackson is probable, but the bigger problem there is that his sub, James Lee, is out because of his knee. This means that Larry Smith will play sub for Jackson. There is also the fact that Jackson could go down altogether which would put the spotlight on Smith. Then we have the rest of the line. Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila has a sprained neck but is probable. KGB's numbers have been so hot and cold this season however, that who shows up is listed as questionable. Na'il Diggs is questionable and is rostered as back-up to Paris Lenon, who has been the starter at LB the last 2 games. Then you have the whole secondary fiasco.

There is real talent there in Sharper, Roman, Hawthorne and of course Al Harris yet something just doesn't gel. These guys should not be getting burned as often as they seem to be. Laying it off on coaching or the enforcement of the contact rule could allow for some leniency, except other CB's with less raw talent are doing a better job. You can excuse Ahmad Carroll for giving up a couple big plays, you can't with the vets. The veterans ought to know better and be quicker to read the routes and make adjustments to keep receivers from getting behind them so often. They should not be getting the amount of penalties that they are. In point of fact the secondary is not fundamentally sound, not by a long shot.

A statement made by Sharper probably sums it up best. When asked what the Packer's defensive style was he replied, “I don't know, I don't even know”.

Minnesota is going to be at home with their full compliment of receivers alive and well. Randy Moss, for all intents and purposes, appears to have most, if not all, of his speed back. Even having 90% Moss is going to be a handful for Al Harris. Nate Burleson stepped up big time when Moss first went down and has now made a solid name for himself. He's grabbed six in the endzone since then, one in each game that Moss was sidelined and 2 last week against Detroit. There's also Marcus Robinson, who's no slouch with his 603 yards and 7 TD's.

When TE Jimmy Kleinsasser went out early in the season their was serious concern about the position. Those concerns have long since been set aside as Jermaine Wiggins has filled the gap very nicely. He's in the top 10 amongst his peers and has 4 touchdowns to his credit, putting him tied for 3rd overall in that stat. Not counting Gates because he's a freak of nature with almost 1000 yards receiving and 12 TD's. Those aren't tight end numbers, those are WR numbers and damned good ones at that.

Onterrio Smith is ailing with the flu, but Michael Bennett was slated to start against the Packer's anyway. Smith should be available for situational play and may do a little kick returning. Although center Cory Withrow, has been pretty good at filling in for Matt Birk, having allowed only 2 sacks in his 4 starts, the Vikings have got to be pleased that Birk stands a good chance of starting.

So the ramblings still leaves the ultimate question unanswered. Is this game worth action?

Both teams are vying for the NFC North Division Title.

Green Bay is already guaranteed a playoff berth, but would clinching the Division Title with a victory in the Dome has got to sound very sweet to the players. There's even more to the story than that. A win would give them Home Field advantage in the post season opener and with the injury to the Eagles Terrell Owens, the NFC is wide open in the postseason. None of that changes what's at stake for Minnesota however.

If the Vikings win they will be in the drivers seat in the North and be playoff bound. But, if they lose all is still not lost. They would only miss post season play if the Panthers and the Rams win both of their remaining games and Seattle wins one of theirs. That's assuming they lose to the Packers as well as the Redskins, leaving them 8-8. Obviously a victory in either game will clinch a berth.

In this gamblers view the Packers really have more at stake and more motivation to win. It will establish them as a solid contender in the NFC, give them at least one more game in front of their fans and a great start to the playoffs.

My Online Betting Action: The Packers +3 &
The Over 55.5 Did not get bet in on time, Over/Under had gone to 57.5

Recent Trends
•Over is 8-0 in the last eight meetings.
•Over is 12-4 in GB's last 16 vs. Division opponents.
•GB have lost the last three ATS played in Dec.
•MIN is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
•Under is 5-2 in MIN's last seven played in Dec.
•MIN is 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.

Wednesday, December 22, 2004

NFL Pick of the Week - This is Still Football, Right?

Real post on Fridays game coming up shortly, but this grabbed me and just had to be posted.

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Line of Scrimmage: Week 16 - NFL Should Ban "Horsecollar" Tackles

By Tony Moss, NFL Editor

Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - Whether you like Terrell Owens or despise him, when word came down Monday that Owens would likely miss the rest of the season due to injuries suffered in the previous day's win over the Cowboys, you had to feel a touch of disappointment.

There are many, including a wealth of folks in San Francisco, Dallas and Baltimore, who would enjoy seeing Owens fall flat on his face on the big stage. But that means dropping a critical pass to lose the game, not breaking a fibula and spraining an ankle to jeopardize the immediate future of his team.

I am paid to be an objective observer of the league, but even I was sick to my stomach as I heard Philadelphia trainer Rick Burkholder break the solemn news. No true fan wants to see one of the league's most electrifying players wiped from the lineup by something like this.

Then I flashed back to Week 11, when the same player that tackled Owens, namely Cowboys safety Roy Williams, applied the same "horse-collar" technique in bringing down Ravens running back Musa Smith. Smith's day ended with a compound fracture of his right tibia, a positively gruesome injury for both the player and anyone unlucky enough to have witnessed it. Williams has now been responsible for as many broken bones as interceptions this season, and while no one is accusing him of intending to inflict injury, the thoroughly unlikable Williams wasn't NOT trying to inflict injury either. Know what I'm saying?

Whether necessary or not, Williams gets a pass for the bone-snappings because both hits were technically legal. But should they have been?

Bringing a player down from behind by the neck or shoulders obviously places a great deal of force on the ball carrier's legs. And because the hit is generally applied from behind or the blind side, the player being tackled is unable to prepare to be dropped as he would with a more conventional tackle. The risk of injury with a hit of this type is great, and a league that preaches safety for its players needs to take notice.

The NFL limits face masks, blocks in the back, crackback blocks, and chop blocks due to the risk of injury, and also penalizes players for late hits and tackles out of bounds. The league fines players who make helmet-to-helmet contact or throw forearms, like Jacksonville's Donovin Darius did to Green Bay's Robert Ferguson last week. Darius was fined $75,000 for his hit.

Is the horsecollar tackle more dangerous than a forearm? Maybe you should ask Owens, who will be hobbling around on crutches while Ferguson recovers from his sprained neck to suit up for the playoffs.

Enforcing a mandate against this type of tackle would require some deliberation by the league. The tackling of a ball carrier from behind is as common as the man in motion, and pulling a player down by the jersey is not a dirty or dangerous hit in and of itself. A period of adjustment would be required so that players and officials could learn the subtle differences between what is acceptable and what is dangerous.

But if the league doesn't do something, it is going to watch as more standout players like Owens suffer a premature end to their seasons, or worse, their careers.

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This is a tough sport, injuries are going to happen. That's a fact. The NFL keeps trying to make this a game that is exciting with all the camera angles, shorting up the play clock, etc... Yet the same writers that are making money from these changes, that bring the viewers to the screen and the field, have the audacity to get indignent over the roughness of the sport, calling for more rules to "protect" the players.

We already have a system in place that makes it a penalty to look at the quartback wrong. The rule against contact on a receiver has been in place for years, it's only now that it's being somewhat enforced.

The hit that Donovin Darius made on Green Bay's Robert Ferguson, that subsquently sent him to the hospital, was and has been illegal.

Donovin Darius clotheslines Rober Ferguson

He was dealt with somewhat justly, although I would have liked to have seen a much heavier fine (75k is what he got) and a one game suspension just because of the obviousness of his intent to clothesline Ferguson.

But the so-called "Horsecollar" is nothing more nor nothing less than an appropriate way to bring a guy down from behind. You grab him and pull, it's the NFL, not afterschool flag football.

Just my $0.02 worth.

Tuesday, December 21, 2004

T.J. Houshmandzadeh - More Self Promotion

This is from T.J.'s own column... Ugh

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Cold no problem for SoCal native

Former Oregon State receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh, now in his fourth year with the Cincinnati Bengals, writes a weekly column on life in the NFL. Today he writes about playing in cold weather.

I am a guy who grew up in Southern California and cold weather to me growing up was 50 degrees. I encountered a little cold weather at night games in Corvallis but nothing compares to my first game in cold weather my rookie season as a Bengal.

I remember the situation very vividly. It was the week after Thanksgiving and we were playing Baltimore. The night before I watched the local weather and the forecast called for a high of 15 degrees.

When I got to Paul Brown Stadium on Sunday morning the wind was whipping off the river and it was cold. I got dressed and instead of putting on a turtleneck or the synthetic tights, I went sleeveless and went out for warm-ups.

I was cold but it wasn't unbearable. I had practiced in the cold weather and that actually is worse than playing in cold weather. In the games, you're moving around, you've got gloves on, and I use the hand warmer attached around my waist.

Plus, when the defense is on the field, offensive players can wear the heavy jackets and sit on the heated benches.

I actually like playing in the cold weather. Since I got here to Cincinnati, I'm used to the cold weather and now I only wear a winter coat when it gets below 20 degrees.

I know it is crazy but it is true. Plus, when the weather gets really cold it is an advantage for us when we play warm-weather teams at home. But it is not as much of an advantage as one might think.

Every team has guys who played college ball in the Midwest or East Coast and they're used to getting it on when the weather gets cold. So, it is not like they've never played in freezing conditions before.

What is an advantage for the home field is how the field reacts to the freezing conditions.

Some of the stadiums where we play the turf is heated below the surface while other surfaces are not. I know how our turf is when it gets cold, and I'd love to tell everybody how it is, but if I do my advantage over defensive backs is gone.

Let's just say that every field reacts differently to the cold weather.

So, the next time you're watching a game and the temperature is single digits, don't feel sorry for the players. Heck, most of them are really enjoying the weather.

I know I would.

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Maybe T.J. thought that his QB would be able to throw in the cold, or that the RB could hold on to the ball. Or maybe he didn't think that Buffalo could handle the cold even better. Whatever he was thinking was wrong!

Anna gives NFL Pick of the Week a Butt Shot

Lines coming up shortly

NFL Against the Spread - Just How Hard Betting to Win Is

Soory about no post The MNF Game. Just didn't seem like the waste of time. As you could see I lost my ~~ass~~ Rear-End. Oh well.

This goes just in line with what is going on now and just how hard it is going to get from this point until playoffs.

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If NFL lines look strange, here's why
By DAVE TULEY

Monday was a quiet morning at the Stardust sports book. Usually, the Stardust puts up its opening NFL lines on Sunday night to accompany the college football lines for the following Saturday. But with the lines for college football bowl games having been on the board for two weeks, there was no sense of urgency to release the NFL lines, so the Stardust waited until Monday morning to put them up.

That also gave oddsmakers a little more time to go through all the injury reports, weather forecasts, and playoff scenarios that can affect wagering at this time of year.

"These last two weeks of the NFL season are the toughest to put up solid lines," said Bob Scucci, the Stardust's race and sports book director. "Some teams that have locked in their playoff position will be resting their starters. Other teams are in must-win situations, so the bettors will be focusing on them.

"We have to take all those factors into consideration and put up the best line we can for early in the week. Then we really have to keep an eye on the injury reports and coaches' quotes about who they will be resting and make adjustments through the week. We will probably see some lines move four to five points."

Scucci used the Falcons-Saints game as an example. The Stardust opened the Saints as a 1 1/2-point favorite.

"Based on the strength of the teams, the Falcons should clearly be favored in that game," Scucci said, "but the Falcons have nothing to play for. They can't improve their position, so no one really knows how much their starters will play. The Saints are still fighting for a wild-card spot, so we had to make them a favorite because you know the public will be looking to play them."

Just then, Scucci was called away to approve a bet on the Saints, and he moved the line to 2 1/2.

Scucci said another game where there could be a strange line is the Eagles-Rams game next Monday night. It was off the board this Monday because of the injury status of Rams quarterback Marc Bulger and Eagles receiver Terrell Owens.

"The Eagles should be about a touchdown favorite on the road in that matchup, but they've clinched home field throughout the NFC playoffs and will not have any incentive," said Scucci. "The Rams need that game a lot more, so we're working on finding the right number once we learn more."

In the two hours after the NFL lines were posted, at 8 a.m. Pacific, the only other game that was bet enough to move off the opening number was the Broncos-Titans game on Saturday, which opened at Broncos -4 and was bet to 3 1/2 right after the numbers went up.

That wasn't too surprising as the Las Vegas Hilton and Stratosphere did put up NFL lines on Sunday night and both opened the Broncos -3 and they were bet to -4, so it's likely some sharp bettor took the Broncos -3 on Sunday night and decided to take back the Titans +4 on Monday morning.

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Ok, Tom... now tell me who really is more attractive?

Maria Sharapova Regularly visits NFL Pick Of The Week.

Sunday, December 19, 2004

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Picks of The Week 15

Ok Fast And Furious. Watching the Panthers, which as you all know I have a wager on. It will be a winning day or a break even day depending on the outcome.

The Dallas Cowboys (5-8) at The Philadelphia Eagles (12-1)
Against the Spread: Cowboys 5-8-0 | Eagles 9-4-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Eagles -14 +120
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Eagles -12.5 -110
Over/Under 46u -110
Despite last weeks outcome, they are still good to cover against Dallas. Wager already on Eagles -

The Eagles had one of their worst outings last week against the Redskins. They still are great ATS and that number has been lowered this week because of that game. McNabb can get it done with T.O., L.J and B.W. (Brian Westbrook, trying to keep up with the initials thing. Westbrook has proven over the last couple of games that he really does deserve the job. He has good running ability and great hands. Just what you want in an all purpose back, aka Faulk. T.O., well T.O. Is what he is, one of the best in the biz. In the Moss v. Owens battle, Owens wins. His size enables him to do thing that Moss can't, YET! Moss has the acrobatics, but he can't get off on the CB's like T.O. Can. Let him bulk up another year and we shall see.

Sorry for the tangent.

Game Break: Yes! Carolina just scored, 7 point game...

Ok, numbers...

Eagles offense 5th in points scored at 27.5, allow only 15.0
Dallas offense 21st in points cored at 19.2, allow 27.3
Eagles defensive points, 24 total on 15 INT's and 13 Forced Fumbles
Dallas defensive points, 0 total on 8 INT's and 10 Forced Fumbles
Eagles overall offensive ranking, 7th - 22nd rush, 5th pass
Dallas overall offensive ranking, 15th - 18th rush, 17th pass

Game Break: Right On! Vick fumbles, Peppers recovers it, returns 60 yards for TD, tied 24 all.

Dallas overall defensive ranking, 25th - 12th rush, 26th pass <--That's gonna hurt
Eagles overall defensive ranking, 12th - 13th rush, 13th pass (how does that figure to a 12th rating?)

The Eagles have an average margin of victory of 15.25 points.
Dallas has an average margin of loss of 18 points.

The Math isn't hard to figure out.

My Online Betting Action: The Eagles -11.5

Recent Trends
•Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
•Cowboys are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 overall.
•Under is 6-2 in DAL last eight games in Dec.
•Under is 9-3 in PHI last 12 overall.
•PHI is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in Dec.
•PHI is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.

Game Break: Woohoo! Panther's just scored again. 31-24... the Money Line Wager is starting to look mighty sweet from this end. 3:37 4th quarter.

The Houston Texans (5-8) at The Chicago Bears (5-8)
Against the Spread: Texans 7-6-0 | Bears 6-7-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bears -1 -110 to -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bears 0 -110
Over/Under 33.5u to 34u -110
Are the Texans back on a roll? I won a good chuck of change betting then as underdogs early in the season. Going to have to look at this game long and hard.

Looked long and hard and the fact is that the Texans, as streaky as they can be, are a better club than the Bears are at this stage.

Chicago's Hutchinson had a good first game against the very weak D of the Vikings. He did not do so hot against the Jags. Going 17 of 33 for 212 yards, no touchdowns and 1 interception. Ended the day with 52% completions, and in general just didn't look very good.

Game Break: Vick just got slammed on 2nd & goal, hobbled off the field. 2min. Warning, ughhh, sweating profusely now...

By contrast, even though they lost, Houston kept the powerhouse offense of Indy to a meager 23 points and Carr looked good. He was 16 of 21, 1 touchdown and 1 interception. Finished with 76.2% completions and a rating of 94.7. None too shabby. Domanick Davis had an outstanding day, rushing for 128 yards on 23 carries. He caught 6 passes for 73 yards, but it was against the Colts.

Game Break: 4th & goal from the Atlanta 14, Vick runs it in for the TD, extra point is good. 31-31 1:37 left Panther's have 1 timeout (Booth review on TD, it was an amazing feat on Vick's part).

The Bear's have a more efficient defense, scoring 54 points while allowing only 20. They rank 17th overall -24th against the rush, 12th against the pass.
Houston comes in at a lowly 30th overall - 18th against the rush, 29th against the pass, and they are much less efficient, scoring only 30 points defensively.

Game Break: OT Panther's to receive.

Offensively the numbers change drastically. Houston is mid pack with an average of 19.2 per game and ranks 16th overall -20th rush, 18th pass. Carr has a QB rating of 84.6 with over 300 yards, and 13 touchdowns. The downside is he has 12 interceptions and 10 fumbles (he's only lost 2 however). A lot of that can be attributed to the O line, as the have allowed him to be sacked 37 times – tied for 3rd most in the NFL.

Game Break: Delhomme floats one over Proehl's head picked off by Beasley, returned to Carolina's 23. Two running plays, Feely's 38 yard field goal is good. Atlanta 34 Carolina 31 ~~Fuck~~ darned, should have taken the 3.5 points.

The Bear's are a horse of a different color. Their ranked dead last - 24th rush, 30th pass. Sitting second to last in scoring with only 15.3 per game and that's likely to go to last after the Washington game gets added. That is unless they pull a rabbit out of their hat tomorrow. Hutchinson is a complete unknown, so trying to calculate his effectiveness is a waste of time.

My Online Betting Action: The Texans +1

Recent Trends
•Under is 9-2 in HOU last 11 games in Dec.
•HOU is 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games.
•Under is 5-2-1 in HOU last eight overall.
•CHI is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in Dec.
•Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last seven at home.
•Under is 6-3 in CHI last nine home games.

The San Diego Chargers (10-3) at The Cleveland Browns (3-10)
Against the Spread: Chargers 10-1-2 | Browns 4-9-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Chargers -11 -125
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Chargers -9.5 -104 to -110
Over/Under 37u to 37.5u -110
Again, despite last week, wager already on Chargers -9.5

How can you not wager on a team with an ATS of 10-1-2. Riding them has been like a pony ride at the kiddy farm. The Chargers have everything clicking, even on off days like last week. Tomlinson is rockin' and rollin'. Brees is making it real tough to release him (What are they going to do next year, they can't keep him and Rivers). Here's what LT thinks about it ...issue his support for bringing resurgent quarterback Drew Brees back to San Diego next season. "I don't think there is any question," he told the North County Times. "Why break up something that's not broken? That's the way I feel about it. I hope I don't get in trouble." And he is right. Drew is playing great, he has lofted himself into the upper echelon of QB's. He is now #4, but still has a 102.7rating. Although he hasn't passed for the nearly 4000 yards that the guys in fron of him have, he still owns a 64.5 completion percentage and has only 6interceptions to his 23 touchdowns.

Don't expect Antonio Gates to be as lack-luster as he was last week. He's still one of the top receivers and he's tied for 3rd in TD's with 11.

San Diego's O line is getting the job done, both in pass blocking and in run blocking. Just look at the numbers, LT has 1147 yards rushing, 357 yards receiving and 14 touchdowns.
Brees has only hit the turf 16 times and he's actually rushed for 2 TD,s.

The Browns are coming around, but it's going to be a bit. They are going to have to go it again without Holcomb. Lee Suggs is questionable, very questionable. That means Green sees most of the running duties, and since they are playing from behind so often his numbers are very lacking, hence you really don't know what he may be capable of. He's only had 46 carries in the last 4 games, that's not enough to show you much.

McCown had a great outing against New England, but only completed 8 passes last week against Buffalo, throwing 2 INT's to his 1 touchdown. With all the injuries, having their best receiver on IR and the “who knows who's gonna be the starter” at RB they are just in such a disarray that it's amazing that they can score at all.

Cleveland has a single bright spot, they have CB Daylon McCutcheon back in the starting line-up. That's it. The rest of their numbers are evwen worse than they were last week, so no reason to hash over that.

This is a big bet yet again.

My Online Betting Action: The Chargers -9.5

Recent Trends
•SD is 11-1-2 ATS in their last 14 overall.
•Under is 4-1 in SD last five road games.
•SD is 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight on the road.
•Browns are 0-6 ATS in their last six overall.
•CLE is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 as a dog.
•Over is 2-0 in the last two meetings in CLE.

The Seattle Seahawks (7-6) at The N.Y. Jets (9-4)
Against the Spread: Seahawks 5-8-0 | Jets 7-5-1
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Jets -7 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Jets -6.5 -110
Over/Under 40u to 40.5u -110
In spite of what the 'Hawks did last week, with both teams so desperate for the win, I give the advantage to Herm and Chad/Quincy. Eat the points, they are 7-5-1 ATS, Odds are in your favor.

Jets are going to run the ball with Chad still sore and the possibility that Carter may get in. It's going to be all about Curtis Martin.

Seattle's Matt Hasselbeck can get it done but it seems that Holmgren will keep the lid shut on him because of his tendency to throw interceptions at EXACTLY the wrong time. They got away with the win at Minnesota, but they tried to give it away. Again it's would seem that they will use Shaun Alexander to the utmost. Particularly when you consider how well he is playing.

Statistically the Seahawks have the advantage over the Jets in overall defense, but the jets make up for that with their Giveaway/takeaway numbers and the difference in points allowed.

Taking a little advice from Brian of N.Y. Jets Football blog in one respect, The Under.

But I'm still seeing the Jets as having the better ATS against tougher opponents.

Two ways:

One Medium.
My Online Betting Action: The Jets -6
One Small.
My Online Betting Action: The Under 40.5

Recent Trends
•Under is 4-2 in the last six meetings.
•SEA is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 overall.
•Over is 8-2 in SEA last 10 overall.
•Under is 8-3 in NYJ last 11 overall.
•NYJ are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games in Dec.
•Jets are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.

Friday, December 17, 2004

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Picks of The Week 15

The NFL Saturday Games

The Pittsburgh Steelers (12-1) at The N.Y. Giants (5-8)
Against the Spread: Steelers 8-4-1 | Giants 5-8-0
Game Time: 1:30 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Steelers -11.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Steelers -10 -110
Over/Under 34u to 34.5u -110
Already have an Online Wager on the Steelers and the Under

Roethlisberger is now sitting with a QB rating of 97.6 with a completion percentage 0f right around 68%. That's all well and good, but Burress will still be out as will “The Duce”. Bettis has to do the job again, and he has appeared to be able to do it well. Even though the have an average offense, they have a defense that can fill in the gaps

The Steelers D is top notch across the board and they have one of the better Give-Away Take-Away numbers in the NFL at +13. They are also darned good at turning those into points, 18 from interceptions, 24 from fumbles. That is what should hold this game somewhat tight but ultimately result in a 13-1 record for the Steelers.

The Giants with Eli can't seem to get anything right, he's thrown 1 TD and 6 INT's, he doesn't even qualify for the QB ratings, Kurt has better numbers. His brother wasn't even that bad in his rookie year (26/28 rating 71.2). Bottom line, he looks completely confused once he gets the ball. Amani Toomer has caught 5 passes in the last 3 games amounting to a total of 118 yards. Jeremy Shockey, who had been their saving grace, only came up decent last week and he hasn't seen the endzone in 3 games. Even the once proud Tiki Barber's numbers have dwindle to next to nothing. He's gained under 100 yards in the last two games. This is from an RB who looked like he was going to set career high numbers this year. This could go on, but no sense in belaboring the obvious.

They have one of the worst offenses all the way across the board since Eli took over. It's not all his fault, but when you can't trust your QB to lead, it brings the whole team down.

N.Y.'s D had been something to worry about, Quoth the raven, `Nevermore'. In Gives/Takes their only +1, and they can't score defensively, 12 total points to the D's credit. What was once a truly solid defense has been relegated to just above average.
Here are the numbers:
20.5 points given a game. 316.8 Total yards, 137.5 Rushing & 179.3 Passing.
They can get through the weaker O lines, Pittsburgh's O line isn't that weak. They may have an overall ranking of 10th, but with a rush ranking of 26th it's probably not going to help. Their 6th rush ranking is suspect as well, see what the Bus does to that.

My Online Betting Action: The Steelers -10 The Under 34.5

Recent Trends
•Over is 3-0 in the last three meetings.
•Steelers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 overall.
•Under is 6-0 in PIT last six overall.
•Giants are on a six game losing streak ATS.
•Under is 8-4 in NYG last 12 overall.
•NYG are 0-6 ATS in their last six games in Dec.

The Washington Redskins (4-9) at The San Fransisco 49ers (2-11)
Against the Spread: Redskins 6-7-0 | 49ers 96-7-0
Game Time: 5:00 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Redskins -4 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Redskins -3.5 -110 to -114
Over/Under 36.5u to 37u -110
Redskins proved that their D is a tough nut to crack, 49ers aren't that kind of nutcracker. Wager already on Washington.

Not even going to bother with a bunch of jargon on this game. The Redskins outclass the 49ers. They win I win. Period.

My Online Betting Action: The Redskins -3.5 Maybe! The Under 37 Undecided

Recent Trends
•WAS is 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
•Under is 10-3 in WAS last 13 overall.
•WAS is 3-0 ATS in their last three overall.
•SF is 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
•Over is 8-4 in SF last 12 games in Dec.
•Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in SF.

The Carolina Panthers (6-7) at The Atlanta Falcons (10-3)
Against the Spread: Panthers 8-5-0 | Falcons 6-7-0
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Falcons -3.5 -100 to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Falcons -3 -120 to -125
Over/Under 38u -110
Atlanta outplayed themselves last week. They are going to have a much tougher game against the Panthers. One to look at for sure.

Looked and Looked... then looked at the Panthers ATS and starting crunching.

The Panthers, even with an injured Delhomme are playing great ball. He has a QB rating of 82.3 and has thrown for over 3000 yards. They may not have much in the way of a running game with the injuries to their starting and subbing RB's, but they sure can pass the ball. Muhsin Muhammad has cranked out 7 touchdowns and 600 yards in the last 5 games. Ricky Proehl has been such a clutch receiver and has gotten them out of jams and kept drives alive, even though his numbers don't show it. The same could be said of Keary Colbert, who is a sideline catching fool. And How about that punter, Todd Sauerbrun, is he as good as it gets or what. Average of 44.4 per kick. 20 inside the opponents twenty yard line. 6 inside the 10. All the punters that have better numbers have punted well over his 60.

Carolinas D is really picking up the pace. They aren't great, but they are ample. Particularly against a team such as the Falcons. The are dead center over all at 16th, 16th against the rush and 22nd against the pass. The rushing game is what they are going to need to do best. That and containing Vick.

Atlanta, despite their record, has impressed me very little. If Vick is kept to having to actually be a quarterback not a running back, they look bad. They have the number 1 rushing game, but again that is primarily due to Vick. Dunn hasn't been bad, but he hasn't been all that good either. He's only rushed for over 100 yards twice all year. The majority of the time he's in the 50 range. He's scored a grand total of 7 times, nothing to write home about there. Duckett has been about useless and is now out and will probably end up on IR with his knee injury. Other than TE Alge Crumpler, the receivers have seen little to no duty. Peerless Price, Dez White, Brian Finneran and Michael Jenkins have amased a grand total of 1009 yards combined. So the 22nd pass D of the Panther's doesn't really come into play except in the redzone when Vick can't run it in and HAS to look for Alge.

The Falcons come in at 10th against the pass and 21st aginst the rush. Their Give/Take is +3, but they do have the ability to convert those into points. 18 on interceptions and 24 on fumbles. This was one of the things that was worrisome when making a pick on this one. In fact, it was almost left alone based on that. But the reality is their D doesn't seem to be capable of overcoming their obvious problems on offense when they face a scoring team. Plus Tampa shut them out!

My Online Betting Action: The Panthers +3.5 Or Money Line

Recent Trends
•Under is 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings.
•CAR is 6-1 ATS in their last seven overall.
•Over is 3-0 in CAR last three road games.
•Under is 17-5 in ATL last 22 overall.
•Under is 6-1 in ATL last seven games in Dec.
•ATL is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.

Tuesday, December 14, 2004

NFL Pick of the Week Against the Spread - Betting Lines Week 15

The NFL Saturday Games

The Pittsburgh Steelers (12-1) at The N.Y. Giants (5-8)
Against the Spread: Steelers 8-4-1 | Giants 5-8-0
Game Time: 1:30 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Steelers -11.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Steelers -10 -110
Over/Under 34u to 34.5u -110
Already have an Online Wager on the Steelers and the Under

Recent Trends
•Over is 3-0 in the last three meetings.
•Steelers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 overall.
•Under is 6-0 in PIT last six overall.
•Giants are on a six game losing streak ATS.
•Under is 8-4 in NYG last 12 overall.
•NYG are 0-6 ATS in their last six games in Dec.

Recent Trends
•WAS is 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
•Under is 10-3 in WAS last 13 overall.
•WAS is 3-0 ATS in their last three overall.
•SF is 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
•Over is 8-4 in SF last 12 games in Dec.
•Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in SF.

Recent Trends
•Under is 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings.
•CAR is 6-1 ATS in their last seven overall.
•Over is 3-0 in CAR last three road games.
•Under is 17-5 in ATL last 22 overall.
•Under is 6-1 in ATL last seven games in Dec.
•ATL is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.

The NFL Sunday Games

The Buffalo Bills (7-6) at The Cincinnati Bengals (6-7)
Against the Spread: Bills 9-4-0 | Bengals 6-6-1
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Buffalo -2 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bengals -0 -105 to -110
Over/Under 44.5u -110
Cincy has the edge with the momentum in Bengal-land

Recent Trends
•BUF is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
•BUF is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 overall.
•Over is 6-1 in BUF last seven overall.
•CIN is 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight overall.
•Under is 6-1 in CIN last seven home games.
•Under is 4-2 in the last six meetings.

The Dallas Cowboys (5-8) at The Philadelphia Eagles (12-1)
Against the Spread: Cowboys 5-8-0 | Eagles 9-4-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Eagles -14 +120
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Eagles -12.5 -110
Over/Under 46u -110
Despite last weeks outcome, they are still good to cover against Dallas. Wager already on Eagles -

Recent Trends
•Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
•Cowboys are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 overall.
•Under is 6-2 in DAL last eight games in Dec.
•Under is 9-3 in PHI last 12 overall.
•PHI is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in Dec.
•PHI is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.

The Houston Texans (5-8) at The Chicago Bears (5-8)
Against the Spread: Texans 7-6-0 | Bears 6-7-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bears -1 -107 to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bears -0 -110
Over/Under 35.5u to 36u -110
Are the Texans back on a roll? I won a good chuck of change betting then as underdogs early in the season. Going to have to look at this game long and hard.

Recent Trends
•Under is 9-2 in HOU last 11 games in Dec.
•HOU is 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games.
•Under is 5-2-1 in HOU last eight overall.
•CHI is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in Dec.
•Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last seven at home.
•Under is 6-3 in CHI last nine home games.

Recent Trends
•SD is 11-1-2 ATS in their last 14 overall.
•Under is 4-1 in SD last five road games.
•SD is 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight on the road.
•Browns are 0-6 ATS in their last six overall.
•CLE is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 as a dog.
•Over is 2-0 in the last two meetings in CLE.

Recent Trends
•Under is 4-2 in the last six meetings.
•SEA is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 overall.
•Over is 8-2 in SEA last 10 overall.
•Under is 8-3 in NYJ last 11 overall.
•NYJ are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games in Dec.
•Jets are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.

The Denver Broncos (8-5) at The Kansas City Chiefs (5-8)
Against the Spread: Broncos 4-6-3 | Chiefs 5-8-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Chiefs -1 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Chiefs -0 -110
OTB at most Online Sportsbooks
Over/Under 52.5u to 53u -105 to -110
OTB at most Online Sportsbooks
Given Denver's horrid play as of late and the good play by KC Monday Night, even as a Pick Denver's scary

Recent Trends
•DEN is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
•Under is 8-2-2 in Broncos last 12 overall.
•Under is 4-0 in DEN last four games in Dec.
•Over is 13-3 in KC last 16 games in Dec.
•KC is 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.
•Over is 6-0 in the last six meetings.

The New Orleans Saints (5-8) at The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-8)
Against the Spread: Saints 5-8-0 | Buccaneers 5-6-2
Game Time: 4:05 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Buccaneers -9 -105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Buccaneers -7.5 -110
Over/Under 44u -106 to -110
With the way the Bucs' have played lately, taking them at home to cover the spread is not far fetched.

Recent Trends
•NO is 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings in TB.
•Under is 6-2 in NO last eight games in Dec.
•NO is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games.
•Under is 17-7 in TB last 24 overall.
•TB has won their last four home games ATS.
•Under is 3-0 in the last three meetings.

The St. Louis Rams (6-7) at The Arizona Cardinals (4-9)
Against the Spread: Rams 3-9-1 | Cardinals 6-7-0
Game Time: 4:05 PM ET -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Rams -1.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Rams -1.5 -110
Over/Under 41.5u -104 to -110
Arizona got an OT win over the 49ers. But with the roulette game going on over there at QB who knows what Sunday will bring. I have to say that in his one start John Navarre looks better than McCown. Rams have to win so even with a ATS of 3-9-1, at -1.5 wager already on the Rams

Recent Trends
•STL is 2-4 ATS in the last six meetings.
•STL is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in Dec.
•Over is 8-4 in the Rams last 12 overall.
•ARI is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games.
•Over is 8-2 in ARI last 10 overall.
•Over is 3-1 in the last four meetings in ARI.

The Tennessee Titans (4-9) at The Oakland Raiders (4-9)
Against the Spread: Titans 4-9-0 | Raiders 4-9-0
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Raiders
Current Low NFL Betting Line Raiders
OTB at almost every Online Sportsbook. I searched, couldn't find one that had a spread. It's even OTB at the Mirage (MGM Book)
Over/Under
Same as above, OTB everywhere
if you can find action I might take the Titans. Post Comment if someone finds a place.

Recent Trends
•TEN is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
•TEN is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 overall.
•Over is 6-1 in TEN last seven games in Dec.
•OAK is 7-22-1 ATS in their last 30 overall.
•Over is 5-2 in OAK last seven overall.
•Over is 6-3 in the last nine meetings.

The Baltimore Ravens (8-5) at The Indianapolis Colts (10-3)
Against the Spread: Ravens 9-4-0 | Colts 8-4-1
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET ESPN Night Game
Current High NFL Betting Line: Colts -9 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Colts -7.5 -102 to -115
Over/Under 49u to 49.5u -107 to -110
Rode the coattails of the Colts covering by landslides, those days may be over. Baltimore puts up a great D, but can they stop the passing of Manning and crew. Very close inspection of this match-up is warranted.

Recent Trends
•BAL is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
•BAL is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 overall.
•Over is 5-1 in BAL last six overall.
•Over is 9-4 in the Colts last 13 overall.
•IND is 6-3 ATS in their last nine home games.
•Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.

The New England Patriots (12-1) at The Miami Dolphins (2-11)
Against the Spread: Patriots 9-2-2 | Dolphins 5-8-0
Game Time: Monday 9:00 PM ET ABC Monday Night Football
Current High NFL Betting Line: Patriots -10.5 +115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Patriots -9 -110
Over/Under 41u -110
Yeah, I bet against my home team last week and got burned for doing it. God doesn't like traitors! This week the Pat's are playing the dolphins so I can breath easier. When you have a team with an ATS as good as New England has versus a bad team, My online wagering goes to the superior team that also covers spreads. Patriots -9 or -10.5 +115

Recent Trends
•Pats are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.
•NE is 23-5-3 ATS in their last 31 overall.
•Over is 7-2-1 in NE last 10 road games.
•Over is 7-1 in MIA last eight overall.
•MIA is 1-11 ATS in their last 12 home games.
•Under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings.

Sunday, December 12, 2004

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Monday Night Football Pick Week 14

Could I have taken a worse beating this weekend?

The Kansas City Chiefs (4-8) at The Tennessee Titans (4-8)
Against the Spread: Chiefs 4-8-0 | Titans 4-8-0
Game Time: Monday 9:00 PM ET ABC Monday Night Football
Opening NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: Titans -1.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Titans 0 -104 to -110
Over/Under 52.5u to 53u -110

Going at this one without any resources from the laptop in the living room. All the same how much could really be said about these two teams?

So the Chiefs are without RB Preist Holmes, QB Trent Green is questionable as is WR/KR/PR Donte' Hall. That sums up the offense problems.

Defensively, KC is going to have to it without DE Vonnie Holiday for the second straight game, and missing his third in a row will be SS Greg Wesley.

The Chiefs have next to no defense anyway so these injuries mean very little, with the exception of Vonnie Holiday.

The Titans list is even longer and at more important positions - Titans Injury - QB Steve McNair is still plagued with a bruised sternum, but you can't count him out. If he can't make the start, backup Billy Volek has shown that he can lead this team having over 1200 yards in only 4 games. That coupled with the relatively healthy receiving corps could be Tennessee's best shot.

The Titan's D just edges out the D of KC giving up about 3 fewer points. A lot fewer yards a game, both passing and rushing. Again advantage Titans. Overall Tennessee ranks 16th -17th rush, 18th pass- while KC sits at nearly the bottom at 30th overall -12th rush, 31st pass- so no help there. One thing that might hurt Titan's numbers will be the MIA CB Samari Rolle.

Overall, as a pick the lean is towards the home team.

Just for fun:

Two Team Teaser

My Online Betting Action: The Titans +6 & The Under 59.5

Saturday, December 11, 2004

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Picks of The Week 14, Part Three

Ok, Down and dirty. These are small wagers only!

Top Three Picks
Middle of the Road Picks

The Seattle Seahawks (6-6) at The Minnesota Vikings (7-5)
Against the Spread: Seahawks 4-8-0 | Vikings 7-5-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: Vikings -7.5 +105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Vikings -6.5 -110 to -115
Over/Under 51u to 52u -110 to -113

Seattle manages to find a way to lose a game in every way imaginable. This week shows no appearance of being any different. Even Alexander, as good as he is, can't help medirocre coaching and poor decision making by Hasselbeck.

With no real defense to speak of, stopping the passing game of the Vikings seems like climbing Mt. Everest without a rope.

Vikings with Moss now recovered can kill you in the air. If that wasn't enough they have discovered something in the way of a running game with Onterrio Smith, and if they can put him back in Mewelde Moore.

My Online Betting Action: The Vikings -6.5

The N.Y. Jets (9-3) at The Pittsburgh Steelers (11-1)
Against the Spread: Jets 7-4-1 | Steelers 7-4-1
Game Time: 4:05 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Steelers -5.5 -111 Over/Under 35.5u -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Steelers -7 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Steelers -5.5 -115
Over/Under 35.5u to 36u -104 to -110

Chad Looked pretty good all things considered. They won a big one that was much needed and much unexpected. Martin had another outstanding day and if that continues it could bolster there chances.

If the D can pressure Big Ben then all the better.

Pittsburgh has shown their weakness and now everyone knows what it is. With Duce still bothered (although not on the injury report) the Bus is going to be heavily relied on and they are still going to be without Burress plus they lost Riemersma last Sunday.

My Online Betting Action: The Jets +7

The San Fransisco 49ers (1-11) at The Arizona Cardinals (4-8)
Against the Spread: 49ers 5-7-0 | Cardinals 6-6-0
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Cardinals -6 -105 Over/Under 37u -112
Current High NFL Betting Line: Cardinals -8 –110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Cardinals -5.5 -110
Over/Under 37u -110

The Cards will be getting Emmitt back and no matter who starts at QB the 49ers won't have an answer.

Arizona can proffer up something like a defense particularly against the pass. Since that's all that San Fran has...

San Fransisco is a bad bad team. Worse than Cinci was at their depths. So expecting anything from them is like expecting a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

My Online Betting Action: The Cardinals -5.5

The St. Louis Rams (6-6) at The Carolina Panthers (5-7)
Against the Spread: Rams 3-8-1 | Panthers 7-5-0
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: Panthers -7.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Panthers -6.5 –110
Over/Under 44u -110

The Rams are in a must win situation. Stephen Jackson is probably out, but Faulk should be a little healthier. Even if Bulger doesn't start Smoker has talent and knows his way around this offense. So assuming that Marts takes the fact that he's a rookie into account they could still pick up this much needed win.

Carolina is in about the same position but have less weapons to work with. They have shown up big as of late, but Delhomme is still bothered by his thumb and punter Todd Sauerbrun is bothered by a quad injury. That means a lot to a team that relies on their ability to pin opponents deep in their own territory.

My Online Betting Action: The Rams +7.5

The New Orleans Saints (4-8) at The Dallas Cowboys (5-7)
Against the Spread: Saints 4-8-0 | Cowboys 5-7-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: Cowboys -8.5 -105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Cowboys -6.5 -120
Over/Under 47.5u to 48u -110

New Orleans can't get much of anything right. Neither on offense nor on defense. They have talent just bad coaching and no sense of direction.

Dallas seems re-born with Julius Jones, and that has seemed to spark life in all kinds of places. Even the scrub defense played decently last week.

Dallas seems the better team, and the Saints are bad on the road and worse in Conference games.

My Online Betting Action: The Cowboys -6.5

Sorry if I've made any egregious errors, did this last run in about 30min. So do me a favor and point them out so I don't look like a complete moron.

And lastly, thank you for stopping to read my humble blog!

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Picks of The Week 14, Part Duex

These are my middle of the road picks, worthy of medium sized bets. For my big bets this weekend:

Top Three Picks

The Cleveland Browns (3-9) at The Buffalo Bills (6-6)
Against the Spread: Browns 4-8-0 | Bills 8-4-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bills -12.5 -100
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bills -11 -108 to -110
Over/Under 38u -110

The Browns had an outstanding offensive performance against the Cincinnati Bengals last week, even though they lost. That was with QB Kelly Holcomb at the helm. He's out for this game with cracked ribs. This leaves rookie Luke McCown taking snaps. Although he did not do a terrible job against NE going 20 of 34 for 277 yards and 2 touchdowns. He did get picked twice and was sacked on three occasions. Rumor has it that after his awful performance last week, RB William Green will play second string to rookie RB Adimchinobe Echemandu. That sounds like desperation, and testing ground for next season. This makes since considering that they have no chance of post season play, and are not good enough to be a spoiler. WR Andre Davis was officially placed on IR and will be out the remainder of the season. Not that the news has any impact.

Cleveland's defense will most likely not see CB Daylon McCutcheon in the lineup. Last weeks game showed just what that does to the secondary. The bright side is that Drew Bledsoe will be the passer for the Bills so that is somewhat offset. There just isn't much else to speak about in terms of the Browns D. They give up 26 points a game, 343 yards -139 on the ground and 203 in the air. They do manage to get picks, but can do very little with them, having gained only 6 points on 14 interceptions. Same thing applies with forced fumbles, 7 but only 6 points to their credit. All this adds up to an overall D ranking of 22nd – 29 against the rush 13 against the pass.

The Bills have something at stake in all of the remaining games. Much like the Bengals they are still in the mathematical hunt for a playoff berth in the incredibly tight AFC. At 6-6 they are tied with Cincinnati and Jacksonville and if the right things happen and they get wins that they should it could be a true race to the finish for those precious Wild Card spots. They Jets, in all likelihood , have one pretty well sewn up. The other one is held by a thin string by Baltimore who has lost their last two and are certainly not a lock against the Giants.

Buffalo has won their last three in spite of Bledsoe's attempts at throwing them away. RB Willis McGahee has gone for over 100 in 4 of his last 6 starts. The last one being just shy at 91. Considering the Dolphins poor rushing D that was somewhat surprising. But Drew did have his best game of the year getting 277 yards, 4 touchdowns and, sit down folks, NO interceptions. Never mind the offense for a moment, it's the defense that should control this game.

Coming in with the 4th overall D and well rounded at 4th against the rush and 9th against the pass and considering the changes in roster for Cleveland, stopping them should not be a huge task. The Bills are +2 in Give-Aways/Take-Aways versus Cleveland's -7, obvious edge to the Bills. They have more at stake and they have not lost a home game since week 4 and have an average win margin of about 16 points. All that as well as an ATS of 8-4-0 doesn't make this a hards pick for a medium sized bet.

My Online Betting Action: The Bills -11

The Philadelphia Eagles (11-1) at The Washington Redskins (4-8)
Against the Spread: Eagles 9-3-0 | Redskins 5-7-0
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET ESPN Night Game
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Eagles -9 -107 Over/Under 37.5u -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Packers -10.5 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Packers -9 -104 to -110
Over/Under 37.5u -110

The Eagles led by the #2 rated QB, Donovan McNabb, handed Green Bay their hats last week, blowing them out 47-17. WR Terrell Owens who was already just under 1000 yards picked up 8 catches for 161 yards and a touchdown. Wasn't the Player of the Game however. That honor was bestowed upon RB Brian Westbrook, who only had 37 yards rushing, but caught 11 passes for 156 yards and 3 touchdowns. WR Todd Pinkston is expected to play, which gives McNabb yet another outlet. For the first time all season, TE L.J. Smith doesn't have some sort of injury asterisk next to his name, More help for Donovan. Although Reno Mahe is doubtful, with the way the Dexter Wynn has played, he may not have a job when he gets healthy anyway.

Philadelphia's defense is statistically average at 12th over all (14th pass and rush). But they get the job done. They one of the better Give-Away/Take-Away margins at +14, but are one of those defenses that are not particularly efficient. Having only 4 defensive scores on 26 take-aways. There again, they kill drives with those forced fumbles and interceptions and they do produce points from the conversions.

Washington newly appointed QB Patrick Ramsey is getting the job done better than last year. But he is still seeing the turf too many times. This is a guy with all the makings of a good quarterback and yet Spurrier and now Gibbs keep putting him in behind an obviously deficient line that cannot keep him safe. In 5 games he has played he has been sacked 14 times. That's nearly half of the number of times he hit the ground in 14 games last season. Gibbs, your back in the NFL, not stock cars. You're also in the NFC and stand no chance of seeing the playoffs. Put Tim Hasselbeck in and save the one thing that you have going for you for next season, when you (or whoever is leading the charge) can build a line that can do something in the form of pass protection. RB Clinton Portis gained 148 yards on the ground, but it was against a Giants team that allows about 138. So take that for what it's worth. The receivers aren't really worth mentioning, when the QB actually has time to throw the ball neither Coles nor Gardner have done anything spectacular. Ok, Gardner has 5 TD's but, save for one game, has gained minimal yardage. Coles is as likely to drop the ball as catch it, so counting on him is like tossing the dice and hoping for snake eyes. But there is the Defense.

The Redskins defense is good, period. 16.8 points a game, 257.4 totals yards – 86.8 rushing 170.7 passing – gives them the overall ranking of #2 with the 3rd best rush and pass D in the league. With Shawn Springs, Sean Taylor, Ryan Clark and Fred Smoot lined up in the secondary they have the ability reek havoc on a passing game. The D may also get a bit of a boost, morally if not physically, with the possible return of LB LaVar Arrington. His impact on the field has to be in question however, considering that he has been sidelined for virtually the entire season with his knee problems. Despite everything that they have going for them on D it seems unlikely that they can do enough to keep the Eagles from another wide margin win.

My Online Betting Action: The Eagles -9

The Detroit Lions (5-7) at The Green Bay Packers (7-5)
Against the Spread: Lions 6-6-0 | Packers 5-7-0
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Packers -9.5 -103 Over/Under 44.5u -110
Current High NFL Betting Line: Packers -11 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line Packers -9.5 -106 to -110
Over/Under 43.5u to 45u -110 to +113

The Lions, after losing a series of close games capped of by week 12's 41-9 routing by the Colts, had to feel like they had finally accomplished something. Since it was against the then 4-7 Cardinals, what it was exactly that they accomplished is anyones guess, but it was at least a moral victory as well as a W. QB Joey Harrington didn't really play that well, going 15 of 27 for 196 yards 1 touchdown and an interception. WR Roy Williams had a bit better of a game than he has of late , snagging 4 for 76 yards and Tai Streets got 3 for 54 yards and a touchdown. But this offense wasn't about the passing game it was all about the running back. Rookie Kevin Jones gained 218 yards, 196 on the ground and 22 in the air. He pulled them out of a couple jams in 3rd down situations and all around played a great game. Let us not forget the other major factor in this win, Jason Hanson. He was 4-4 with 2 from 35+ and 2 from 40+ with a long of 45. When Detroit got him in range he came through in spades.

Detroit's defense had their best game of the season. They picked rookie QB John Navarre 4 times. Kept him under the 50% completion mark (18 of 40) and allowed him just 160 yards. Cb Dre` Bly got two of those interceptions while LB Teddy Lehman and DE James Hall -with a little help from fellow DE Kalimba Edwards- accounted for the other two. With legendary, future Hall of Fame RB, Emmitt Smith (For you Preston) sidelined with a toe injury, the Lions had no trouble manhandling rookie RB Larry Croom, holding him to only 49 yards on 18 carries.

The Packers walked out of Veterans Stadium with their tails tucked firmly between their legs, being embarrassed by the Eagles in a 47-17 thrashing. QB Brett Favre threw 2 interceptions, the first midway in the 1st quarter the second just at the start of the 2nd quarter, which lead to the first scores for the Eagles. Favre's touchdown a game streak ended at 37 furthering his on field depression. Although Ahman Green did play, he was not a factor. Obviously still sore and afraid of being hit in the chest, he managed only 37 yards on 11 carries and only caught 3 passes for minimal yardage. As bad as that was, it was his lack of blocking prowess that hurt at least as much. There is good news to report. Ahman is healthy as is his backup/blocker Najeh Devenport. All the receivers are good to go and with the exception of C Grey Ruegamer, who is expected to play, the entire O line is healthy. This should make things considerably more comfortable for Favre. Plus they are at home and Detroit is just the kind of team you want to meet up with for a rebound win.

The Packers defense is lackluster at best. S Darren Sharper should be quicker this week. CB Ahmad Carroll is coming around, slowly but surely. His counterpart, CB Al Harris is good to harass whoever has the displeasure of lining up across from him. Mark Roman is always a bother running free in the middle. Tackle Grady Jackson is still bothered by his knee but will play. The thing that the Pacs' are going to miss the most this week will be the sidelined Na'il Diggs who was really starting to strut his stuff from th OL position with his speed and agility. All the same they are not playing a juggernaut of an offense in the Detroit Lions.

My Online Betting Action: The Packers -9.5

The rest of my picks are small wagers and will simply be posted as is with who gets my wagering dollars

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Picks of The Week 14

Duty is ours, results are God's
John Quincy Adams

That is not a shameless, without forethought quote. The meaning is obvious and true, if not in context.

The Match-Ups this week, for the most part, mean something. That means hog wild betting with hopes the blind squirrel will find a few acorns.

Starting with best to worst:

The Cincinnati Bengals (6-6) at The New England Patriots (11-1)
Against the Spread: Bengals 5-6-1 | Patriots 9-1-2
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Patriots -10.5 -103 Over/Under 44u +102
Current High NFL Betting Line: Patriots -12 -105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Patriots -11 -110
Over/Under 44u -110

Anyone who reads this drivel knows that rarely is there a post about a Bengals game, this is the exception to the rule.

Cincinnati in the newly able hands of QB Carson Palmer have done better. Note BETTER, not good. Despite having tossed for 382 yards and 3 touchdowns plus the come from behind drive to set them up for the win, he still managed to find a way to make a bone headed plays and give one up to Reed. RB, Rudi Johnson, returned to his former self, gaining just 56 yards on 19 carries. It was against the very tough defense of the Ravens. But the are going up against an even tougher D in the Patriots (never mind the stats, they are better). WR's Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh are phenomenal receivers, no doubt. Then again so is the hodge podge crew that makes up the secondary for the Pats'.

Defensively the Bengals have showed, off and on, some ability. But it is just too inconsistent to expect to play up to the level that is needed to stay afoot with the likes of New England's Offense. Also, have a peak at the Bengals Injury List. Slowing Corey Dillon down is going to be a mighty big obstacle to overcome. Not to mention keeping down the passing game that is tough to stop. With Cincinnati's premier CB, Deltha O'Neil downgraded to questionable with an ankle injury, this task is made even harder.

The Patriots seem to be the team to beat this year. QB Tom Brady just does the right things, nearly all the time. He now has a completely healthy receiving corp and the running back in Corey Dillon that they have been waiting for. How much can be said of the return of WR Deion Branch, who in just 4½ games has amassed 282 yards and 2 touchdowns. This with him playing hurt for two of those games. You could go on and on, but the ATS speaks for itself. This team wins and wins big!

My Online Betting Action: The Patriots -11 Over 44

The Indianapolis Colts (9-3) at The Houston Texans (5-7)
Against the Spread: Colts 8-3-1 | Texans 6-6-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Colts -10 -102 Over/Under 56.5u -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Colts -11.5 -100
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Colts -10.5 -110 to -115
Over/Under 56.5u to 57u -110

The Colts have determined that their best defense is offense. And they do it well. QB Payton Manning is on his way to breaking every quarterbacks record (some of which he has already done, sorry Marino). He has possibly the best two wide-outs to date in Marvin Harrison and Brandon Stokley. Reggie Wayne isn't any slouch either, mind you. RB Edgerrin James is getting the job done well enough for Manning to pull off his play-action, although watching him do it makes you wonder if he really needs a back to set that up. Man is he amazing with that. Plus you have an O line that is protecting him in the pocket, giving him ample time to look through his receivers, much to Harrison's chagrin.

The Colts defense, well when you can put up 45 points a game, it doesn't seem worth mentioning. However, they have come up with some good late game play that has kept teams from making any kind of comeback.

QB David Carr, with WR's Andre Johnson and Jabar Gaffney, started this season as one of the most explosive and underrated offenses in the NFL. Those days seem to have passed. After being pounded by Denver then pummeled by Indy. They managed to stay in the game against an Ahman-less Green Bay, but still lost 16-13. RB Domanick Davis finally had the game that they had been waiting for in the following week against the Titans, rushing for a season high 129 yards. This was his first 100 yarder so far. Again, it was against the Titans who allow about 120 yards a game on the ground, so putting much stock in that is dubious. His next foe, the Jets, put him back were he belongs. A middle of the road back who, in all likelihood, will not see numbers like he produced in his rookie year again. Oh, and they got hammered, 29-7 with Pennington playing at about 70%.

Believe it or not, the Colts out rank them on D. They give up 24.1 a game, to the Colts 21.9, baffling isn't it. They allow about 244 in the air and about 121 on the ground. That puts them near the bottom of the barrel, with a total of around 365 yards a game. They rank 29th overall - 20th against the rush, 28th against the pass - those numbers are probably not going to be elevated after this game.

My Online Betting Action: The Colts -10.5

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-7) at The San Diego Chargers (9-3)
Against the Spread: Buccaneers 5-5-2 | Chargers 9-1-2
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Chargers -5.5 +101 Over/Under 43u -112
Current High NFL Betting Line: Chargers -6 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Chargers -4.5 –115
Over/Under 43u -110

The Buccaneers have started to play this game like it matters. They are showing signs of the Bucs' we learned to love or hate a couple of seasons ago. To be honest though, you have to look at their opponents over the last few games to put that seeming resurgence into perspective. Against KC in an offense laden battle, they came up with the field goal victory 34-31. That was followed by a loss to Atlanta by 10. A rebound versus the pathetic 49ers bolstered them some as they walked away with a 35-3 win. This was to be followed by a 21-14 loss to a very mediocre Carolina Panthers, who started QB Jake Delhomme with a broken thumb on his throwing arm. They did come up big at home against Atlanta in the rematch, beating them 27-goose egg. However, even though Atlanta is 9-3, they certainly don't play like a 9-3 team. So you have to take that win with a grain of salt.

Tampa's defense, at least against the pass, is a serious threat. The are ranked #1 in that category and 3rd overall. The D against the rush is a horse of a different color. Sitting proudly at 22nd they aren't much of a threat against a decent blocking O line and an RB that can take advantage of it. LaDainian Tomlinson behind one of the best offensive lines in the league can.

San Diego's offense struggled a bit last week against the Broncos. It was a tough game with a lot at stake for both teams. In fact it was just what you would expect in a division rivalry with the division leader being decided by the outcome. For once TE Antonio Gates was not the stud that he has been all season, although he still got in the fray and made some key catches (3rd and 10 to keep a scoring drive alive), just not the big ones and not in the endzone. QB Drew Brees had his least productive game of the season, completing on 14 of his 27 attempts and getting a meager 106 yards. He threw his 1st INT in 194 passes, but it was still only his 4th of the season. This game was the LaDainian Tomlinson - 113 yards and 2 touchdowns against the 7th rushing D - San Diego defensive show.

The Chargers D did all the right things at all the right times. Denver was only able to convert 4 of their 14 3rd down attempts. The Chargers picked QB Jake Plummer's pocket 4 times resulting in 10 points. He was sacked twice and did not throw a touchdown for only the second time this year. Although he did get 278 yards he was only 40% going 16 of 40. RB Reuben Droughns was held to 38 yards on 14 carries but did managed to get into the endzone once. Bottom line, Chargers defense played one of their best games in, arguably, their toughest match-up.

The Chargers should be able to pass against the Bucs', and the rushing game should be as solid as ever.

My Online Betting Action: The Chargers -4.5

Sorry to piecemeal these, but there are my top 3 picks and will be my big bets this week. The rest are soon to follow. I know all three of you are anxiously awaiting my humble opinions.

Thursday, December 09, 2004

NFL Pick of the Week Against the Spread - Betting Lines Week 14

The Chicago Bears (5-7) at The Jacksonville Jaguars (6-6)
Against the Spread: Bears 6-6-0 | Jaguars 7-5-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: Jaguars -8 -105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Jaguars -7 -110 to -120
Over/Under 34u to 34.5u -110

Recent Trends

•Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
•CHI is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in Dec.
•CHI is 4-2 ATS in their last six road games.
•Under is 6-1 in JAC last seven games in Dec.
•Under is 8-1 in JAC last nine home games.
•Jags are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 at home.

The Cincinnati Bengals (6-6) at The New England Patriots (11-1)
Against the Spread: Bengals 5-6-1 | Patriots 9-1-2
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Patriots -10.5 -103 Over/Under 44u +102
Current High NFL Betting Line: Patriots -12 -105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Patriots -11 -110
Over/Under 44u -110

Recent Trends

•CIN is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.
•CIN is 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven overall.
•Over is 8-2 in CIN last 10 road games.
•NE is 23-4-3 ATS in their last 30 overall.
•Pats' last three home games have played under.
•Over is 6-3 in the last nine meetings.

The Cleveland Browns (3-9) at The Buffalo Bills (6-6)
Against the Spread: Browns 4-8-0 | Bills 8-4-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bills -12.5 -100
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bills -11 -108 to -110
Over/Under 38u -110
Still OTB at most Online Sportsbooks

Recent Trends

•Browns are 0-5 ATS in their last five overall.
•CLE is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 as a dog.
•Over is 3-0 in CLE last three road games.
•BUF is 7-2 ATS in their last nine overall.
•Over is 5-0 in BUF last five home games.
•Under is 7-2 in BUF last nine games in Dec.

The Indianapolis Colts (9-3) at The Houston Texans (5-7)
Against the Spread: Colts 8-3-1 | Texans 6-6-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Colts -10 -102 Over/Under 56.5u -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Colts -11.5 -100
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Colts -10.5 -110 to -115
Over/Under 56.5u to 57u -110

Recent Trends

•Over is 9-3 in the Colts last 12 overall.
•Indy is 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
•IND ranks 1st in offense with 426.1 yds/gm.
•Under is 8-2 in HOU last 10 games in Dec.
•HOU is 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.
•Under is 2-0 in the last two meetings in HOU.

The New Orleans Saints (4-8) at The Dallas Cowboys (5-7)
Against the Spread: Saints 4-8-0 | Cowboys 5-7-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: Cowboys -8.5 -105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Cowboys -6.5 -120
Over/Under 47.5u to 48u -110

Recent Trends

•NO is 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.
•Under is 5-2 in NO last seven games in Dec.
•Over is 6-2 in NO last eight road games.
•Cowboys are 3-6 ATS in their last nine overall.
•Under is 5-2 in DAL last seven games in Dec.
•Under is 6-3 in the last nine meetings.

The N.Y. Giants (5-7) at The Baltimore Ravens (7-5)
Against the Spread: Giants 5-7-0 | Ravens 8-4-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Ravens -9.5 -105 Over/Under 33u -110
Current High NFL Betting Line: Ravens -11.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Ravens -9.5 -110
Over/Under 33u to 33.5u -110

Recent Trends

•Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
•Giants are on a five game losing streak ATS.
•Under is 8-3 in NYG last 11 overall.
•BAL is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 overall.
•Over is 9-3 in BAL last 12 home games.
•BAL is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.

The Oakland Raiders (4-8) at The Atlanta Falcons (9-3)
Against the Spread: Raiders 4-8-0 | Falcons 5-7-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Falcons -7.5 +103 Over/Under 45.5u -112
Current High NFL Betting Line: Falcons -9 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Falcons -7.5 -110
Over/Under 45.5u to 46u -110

Recent Trends

•OAK is 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.
•OAK is 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 overall.
•Over is 5-1 in OAK last six overall.
•Under is 16-5 in ATL last 21 overall.
•ATL is 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
•Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

The Seattle Seahawks (6-6) at The Minnesota Vikings (7-5)
Against the Spread: Seahawks 4-8-0 | Vikings 7-5-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: Vikings -7.5 +105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Vikings -6.5 -110 to -115
Over/Under 51u to 52u -110 to -113

Recent Trends

•Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
•Over is 8-1 in SEA last nine overall.
•SEA is 1-8 ATS in their last nine overall.
•MIN is 6-3 ATS in their last nine overall.
•Under is 4-0 in MIN last four home games.
•MIN is 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings.

The Miami Dolphins (2-10) at The Denver Broncos (7-5)
Against the Spread: Dolphins 4-8-0 | Broncos 4-5-3
Game Time: 4:05 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Broncos -11 -105 Over/Under 38u -109
Current High NFL Betting Line: Broncos -13 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Broncos -11 -110
Over/Under 38.5u -110

Recent Trends

•MIA is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
•Over is 7-0 in MIA last seven overall.
•MIA is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games in Dec.
•Under is 7-2-2 in Broncos last 11 overall.
•Under is 3-0 in DEN last three games in Dec.
•Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.

The N.Y. Jets (9-3) at The Pittsburgh Steelers (11-1)
Against the Spread: Jets 7-4-1 | Steelers 7-4-1
Game Time: 4:05 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Steelers -5.5 -111 Over/Under 35.5u -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Steelers -7 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Steelers -5.5 -115
Over/Under 35.5u to 36u -104 to -110

Recent Trends

•Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
•NYJ are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in Dec.
•Under is 7-3 in NYJ last 10 overall.
•Steelers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 overall.
•Under is 5-0 in PIT last five overall.
•PIT is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.

The Detroit Lions (5-7) at The Green Bay Packers (7-5)
Against the Spread: Lions 6-6-0 | Packers 5-7-0
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Packers -9.5 -103 Over/Under 44.5u -110
Current High NFL Betting Line: Packers -11 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line Packers -9.5 -106 to -110
Over/Under 43.5u to 45u -110 to +113

Recent Trends

•Over is 4-2 in the last six meetings.
•DET is 5-2 ATS in their last seven on the road.
•DET is 3-0 ATS in their last three games in Dec.
•Over is 7-1 in the Packers last eight overall.
•Packers are 2-4 ATS in their last six home games.
•GB is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings at home.

The San Fransisco 49ers (1-11) at The Arizona Cardinals (4-8)
Against the Spread: 49ers 5-7-0 | Cardinals 6-6-0
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Cardinals -6 -105 Over/Under 37u -112
Current High NFL Betting Line: Cardinals -8 –110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Cardinals -5.5 -110
Over/Under 37u -110

Recent Trends

•SF is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.
•49ers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 overall.
•Under is 4-2 in SF last six overall.
•Over is 7-2 in ARI last nine overall.
•ARI is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.
•Under is 3-0 in the last three meetings in ARI.

The St. Louis Rams (6-6) at The Carolina Panthers (5-7)
Against the Spread: Rams 3-8-1 | Panthers 7-5-0
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: Panthers -7.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Panthers -6.5 –110
Over/Under 44u -110

Recent Trends

•Over is 3-0 in the last three meetings.
•Over is 8-3 in the Rams last 11 overall.
•STL is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in Dec.
•Over is 5-1 in CAR last six overall.
•CAR is 5-1 ATS in their last six overall.
•CAR is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-7) at The San Diego Chargers (9-3)
Against the Spread: Buccaneers 5-5-2 | Chargers 9-1-2
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Chargers -5.5 +101 Over/Under 43u -112
Current High NFL Betting Line: Chargers -6 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Chargers -4.5 –115
Over/Under 43u -110

Recent Trends

•Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
•Under is 17-6 in TB last 23 overall.
•TB is 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine road games.
•SD is 10-1-2 ATS in their last 13 overall.
•Over is 9-2 in SD last 11 home games.
•SD is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

The Philadelphia Eagles (11-1) at The Washington Redskins (4-8)
Against the Spread: Eagles 9-3-0 | Redskins 5-7-0
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET ESPN Night Game
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Eagles -9 -107 Over/Under 37.5u -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Eagles -10.5 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Eagles -9 -104 to -110
Over/Under 37.5u -110

Recent Trends

•PHI is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
•Under is 8-3 in PHI last 11 overall.
•Eagles are 9-3 ATS so far this season.
•Under is 9-3 in WAS last 12 overall.
•WAS is 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
•Under is 6-3-1 in the last 10 meetings.

The Kansas City Chiefs (4-8) at The Tennessee Titans (4-8)
Against the Spread: Chiefs 4-8-0 | Titans 4-8-0
Game Time: Monday 9:00 PM ET ABC Monday Night Football
Opening NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: Titans -2 -102 to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Titans -2 -102 to -110
Over/Under 52u -110
Still OTB at most Online Sportsbooks And is there any question why...?

Recent Trends

•KC is 1-4 ATS in their last five overall.
•Over is 7-2 in KC last nine road games.
•Over is 12-3 in KC last 15 games in Dec.
•TEN is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 overall.
•Over is 5-1 in TEN last six games in Dec.
•Over is 6-3 in the last nine meetings.

Wednesday, December 08, 2004

NFL Against the Spread – Cincinnati Bengals Special Report

The Cincinnati Bengals have played good defensive and offensive ball, just not during the same game.

The Bengals defense was good against the Pittsburgh Steelers. They were the first team to make rookie Ben Roethlisberger look like a rookie, putting him on his hindquarters 7 times costing him 54 yards. This was the most pressure that young Ben has seen in his star studded debut. But Cincinnati's rookie, Carson Palmer, fared much worse, as their seemingly inept offense failed to produce a single point in the last 34 minutes of play. This was exacerbated by very rookie mistakes at quarter back.

The first was made about mid way through the second quarter when Palmer, taking the snap in shotgun formation from the Bengals 4, looked up receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh, who was in obvious triple coverage. Apparently unaware of what the consequences of throwing it to him anyway may be, Carson delivered a quick strike into the awaiting arms of linebacker, James Farrior. Farrior, completely aware of the situation, returned the interception the 14 yards needed for the touchdown.

Strike One.

With just over 3 minutes to play Palmer was sacked on 1-10 from Cincinnati's 9 yard line for a 1 yard loss. But that wasn't the end. In keeping with what he had already established as the norm, Palmer, again from shotgun, got the snap and then proceeded to through the ball away when the pressure came. The problem was, he was still in the pocket and got called for his third intentional grounding of the half. This gave the Steelers the 2 point safety and the ball back, stifling any hopes the Bengals may have been entertaining about a come from behind victory.

Strikes Two and Three.

This did have some positive effects however.

For the first time since taking over as Head Coach, Marvin Lewis was visibly shaken. This was furthered evidenced by his verbal outrage, made publicly, about the poor play of his offense. Bengal's right tackle, Willie Anderson, got to the heart of the problem with his statement that, “To win games like this and to beat teams like this, football has to be your life. And offensively, it's really not our life. We're putting the work in, but it's the extra stuff you have to do ... We let (Lewis) down.” This was something from the heart, made by a player who has not been shy with his opinions about the coaching staff in his 9 years as a Bengal.

So we fast forward to November 28th and a meeting with long time rivals, The Cleveland Browns.

Carson Palmer took his second snap of the game and, throwing into well covered territory, tried to hit Houshmandzadeh for a 21 yard pass. Once again that plan went awry when conerback, Anthony Henry, decided he was in better position for the catch. Lewis, along with about 60,000 fans, had the sinking feeling that it was going to be another long day for the offense. Could they have been more wrong?

What followed can only be described as the single most spectacular display of offense that this fan has ever witnessed. In the second highest scoring game in NFL history the Browns Kelly Holcomb threw for 413 yards, 5 touchdowns and lost! Palmer's 251 yards on 22 completions looked downright pathetic by comparison. He did manage to find the endzone on four occasions but also found the opponents hands a good target 3 too many times. The standout for Cincinnati in this “Made for Madden” game was the performance of running back, Rudi Johnson.

Johnson averaged over 120 yards a game in his first six as the featured back (2003). This led Bengals fans everywhere to believe that with him, Corey Dillon could go away and never be thought of again. That belief was furthered by the drafting of Chris Perry out of Michigan (Wolverines), who had all the earmarks of a great all purpose back. Those beliefs were dashed against the rocks as Perry saw injury lead to injury and Johnson not producing numbers to solidify him as the back of the future in Cincinnati. That was prior to the Cleveland game.

After only three 100+ rushing games, Johnson carried the rock 26 times for 202 yards. He averaged nearly 8 yards a carry and saw the endzone twice. Does that mean that he is the back of the future for Cincinnati? Time will only tell, but thoughts are leaning towards a no.

The problem, if it's not already obvious, in this game was the utter lack of defense in the secondary. Again, Holcomb threw for 413 yards and 5 touchdowns. Brown's RB, William Green, may not have had a good day, gaining only 75 yards on 15 carries, but did find the redzone once. With the passing game clicking like it was, no one cared that they weren't very effective on the ground. Antonio Bryant had 8 grabs for 131 yards and 2 touchdowns, Dennis Northcutt snagged 5 for 87 yards, and the standout of the day, TE Steve Heiden, eclipsed everything he had done to date getting 7 catches for 82 yards and 3 touchdowns.

The offense still didn't mesh however. Palmer still threw 3 interceptions, all of which were converted into points. But that really wasn't the heart of the problem in this game, it was the innumerable missed tackles and broken coverages. This by a defense that in weeks prior had looked like the next big thing.

Repeat, good defense, good offense, just not during the same game.

Jumping ahead to Cincinnati versus Baltimore.

This seemed like an open and shut case for young Palmer and crew, and yet it wasn't. There were things that happened in the Cleveland game the Carson carried onto the field Sunday. He discovered how to look off a safety. This is what made Staubach, Montana, Marino, and dare I say it Elway, the players that they were. They all had one thing in common, they could read defenses and they could look off coverage. Palmer got a taste of what success that can bring you against Cleveland. He took that knowledge with him to Baltimore were he made a concerted effort to apply his newly acquired skill. It seemed to pay off.

With 80% of his passes completed, he hit his receivers, namely Chad Johnson and T.J Houshmandzadeh, for 382 yards and 3 touchdowns. His only mistake was an over thrown ball that found it's way into to the hands of Ravens safety Ed Reed. Does this mean that he is the next Montana or Marino? Doubtful, but it does mean that he his learning how the game is played and more importantly how to do the things that you have to if you hope to have success as a quarterback in the NFL.

As good as the offense played, it was the emergence of the defense through a whole game that made the victory possible. Finally both parts worked on the same day.

Lewis smiled during his press conference. Houshmandzadeh smiled in the locker room. Johnson smiled on his way to the bank. And Willie, well Willie just smiled.