Saturday, September 25, 2004

NFL Pick of the Week

Rather than doing the usually and laying out my picks on every NFL game this week, I'm going to start with the games that I am actually betting on. For my complete evaluations on this weeks games please see NFL Against The Spread and NFL Against The Spread. Part Two

1).Atlanta -10 – This goes against the grain, but I believe in it enough that I have my hard earned cash on The Atlanta Falcons.

2).Green Bay +6.5 – I liked this game from day one and made this my BIG (if there is such a thing this early in the season) bet of the week. I just don't see The Green Bay Packers losing by that big a margin.

3).Houston +7.5 – I think that I'm pretty much in line with common thinking with this pick. The Kansas City Chiefs just don't have anything to bring to the field.

4).Minnesota -9.5 – Again I am swimming against the tide with this pick. Despite Rex Grossman and crews prediction that they will be able to run Thomas Jones and control the clock, I think that the missing piece here is the fact that they are going up against the 5th ranked rushing defense. I like Grossman and I like Jones, but that ain't enough.

5).Seattle Seahawks Over 43.5 – I stated in my earlier post (NFL Against The Spread. Part Two) I don't like this game against the spread. The Seahawks could cover, but that's a lot of points. Even though The 49ers are not very good I have not seen enough of now starting QB Ken Dorsey to put my money against him. But I have upgraded my opinion of the Over to being one worth me making a small wager on.

Still to come... Monday Night Football!
Chicago Bears Troubles Continue

The already decimated defense of The Bears just got worse. Middle linebacker Brian Urlacher has aggravated his right hamstring. The injury kept him out of all but an hour of practice on Friday.

According to Head Coach Lovie Smith Urlacher is a 50-50 to play tomorrow against The Vikings. This makes me think that my evaluation of this game and taking The Viking -9 more then just "not a stretch..."

Friday, September 24, 2004

NFL Against The Spread. Part Two

San Diego(1-1) at Denver(1-1) Denver -10. Return
I hate to start this with another “man this is a tough one to call”, but that's exactly what it is, a tough call. Let's begin with LaDainian Tomlinson who is bothered by a jammed big toe. He claims that it is NOT the “turf toe” we hear about so often but rather a simple jam in the upper part of his toe. That said, keep in mind that he pulled himself out for several plays during their loss to the Jets. It was late in the game and that might be a sign that fatigue adds to it being a bother. Added to that mix is quarterback Drew Brees who we all know has issues. Still, he has guided The Chargers to an average score ranking of 3rd, tied with the likes of The Indianapolis Colts and The Atlanta Falcons.
Denver's Quentin Griffin went off on Kansas City's weak defense in week 1, but was limited to only 66 yards on 25 carries against Jacksonville. But we are talking about the Chargers defense (ranked 24th overall; 17th against the rush 26th against the pass), not the Jaguars. Even with a 7th ranked offense the Broncos have not put big numbers on the score board. In a nutshell I think this game is better left alone, but if a gun was put to my head... I would have to take a bullet. Seriously though, I think that the weak link in this is Jake Plummer's question marks behind the gun, The Chargers +10.
Side Notes: Broncos are 1-3 against the spread (ATS) in their last four overall.

San Francisco(0-2) at Seattle(2-0), Seattle -10.5. Return
Whew, that's a big favorite... when was the last time that The Seahawks came into a game favored by those kind of numbers? Ok, don't answer that. The Seahawks with Mike Holmgren at the helm just keep getting better and better. Although Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is still going through some growing pains he's smart and does have some real weapons at his disposal in Wide Receivers Darrell Jackson and Koren Robinson. But the game still rests squarely on the shoulders of Running Back Shaun Alexander. Did I mention that's a big spread.
Now looking at The 49ers they are really banged up. Injuries are too long to list and are on both sides of the ball. Quarterback Ken Dorsey will be starting and is an unknown commodity at best, and has very little to work with. Although I really like the Seahawks I don't like this game against the spread. If some action on this one is what you want, look at taking the Over at 43.5 and cheer at every score.
Side Notes: Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings, Over is 5-2 in 49ers last seven overall.

Green Bay(1-1) at Indianapolis(1-1), Indianapolis -6.5. Return
I've really been looking forward to writing about this one. Add two explosive offenses, plus two fantastic quarterbacks, and you get a whole lotta fun to watch. I mean this should be a great one! The Packers led by quarterback Brett Favre are coming off a hard loss at home against The Chicago Bears, while The Colts with the dynamic Payton Manning guiding them, took out The Tennessee Titans in Tennessee.
I see big plays and big numbers written all over this one. Even with the injuries on both teams this is not going to be an defensive slug fest.
Despite the hamstring problem with running back Edgerrin James, he will probably get some play time and combined with Dominick Rhodes they will be able to wear down the front four enough for Manning to set up the play action, and we all know what he does when that happens.
With The Packers, you have the obvious, multi-talented running back Ahman Green setting up Favre for the rollouts and bootlegs, with his counter plays. Both teams have offensive linemen that are solid pass protectors and run blockers, so both quarterbacks are going to be able to do what they do best, throw the ball. Folks this one is going to be the afternoon game that will keep your eyes glued to the set and your butt planted in the chair. It's going to be a shootout, boy's. This is another game that I will be logging into my favorite online casino and getting a little action on. In fact I might even go two ways with this one. The Packers + 6.5 and the Over at 48.5. At the very least I love The Packers with the points.
Side Notes: Packers are 8-3 against the spread (ATS) in their last 11 overall, and 7-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last nine as a dog.

Tampa Bay(0-2) at Oakland(1-1), Oakland -3. Return
What can I really say about this match-up. This one IS going to be a defensive slug fest. The Raiders land on the field with the 4th ranked overall defense, and The Buccaneers step out on the grass just one notch above with the 3rd ranked overall defense. Offensively The Raiders sit just below the middle of the pack at 18th overall, while the anemic Buccaneers offense stands at a dismal 30th. If you're a fan of either of these teams and just need a reason to watch, or a football junkie who will watch whatever he (or she) can get and HAVE to have a reason to watch then my advice would be to start drinking early and heavy and with a little luck you'll be too drunk to wager on this game at all. But if that fails, do yourself a favor and take the Under at 34.5 and make it a small bet.
Side Notes: Why Bother.

Well your fedora adorned writer is signing off for the night. I'll be back tomorrow to right any wrongs, and give you my humble opinion on The Monday Night Football Game. Until then, keep on keepin' on!
NFL Meets Online Poker Or How I spent last-night.

I know my readers READER are IS anxiously awaiting my next post with my analysis of the afternoon games. I, however, am going to deviate from the norm and talk about something completely different, Poker!
I have been playing poker online at Party Poker with Iggy for several years now and doing well at the lower limits. Iggy as of late has been relentlessly urging me to move up (considerably) to higher limits, claiming that it was just as fishy. Well last night I did. I made the move and he was dead right. I will say that it did take about an orbit for me to get my wits about me, being a rather tight-aggressive player I did have the mental aspect of the move up to overcome. I don't like playing scared, in fact I like to be the pusher rather than the pushy (no pun intended).
But in any case Iggy was dead on. They were every bit as aggressive pre-flop, maybe even a little more so, as at the lower limit tables. I sat back waiting for the right places to stick my head in and finished the night a bit richer.
Just want to say to Iggy, Right On!

Thursday, September 23, 2004

NFL Against the Spread


Houston(0-2) at Kansas City(0-2), Kansas City Chiefs –7.5. Return
Where do I even begin with this one? Well Let’s start with the obvious, Priest Holmes is listed as questionable for Sundays game. Now if I know Dick (I don’t, but let’s let me think I do) he will be ultra careful with Holmes this early in the season. Now take into account that Houston has SOME offense and that without Holmes KC has, well, NONE. I really like Houston +7.5-8. Keep in mind that they only lost by 7 to a pretty decent offense in the San Diego Chargers last week and The Chiefs defense is ranked 27th overall. I wouldn’t bet the bank (it’s just to early in the season for big bets) but this gambler's going to his favorite Online Casino for a NFL betting on this one.
Side Note: Houston is 10-3 Against The Spread (ATS) last 13 after two or more loses.


Jacksonville(2-0) at Tennessee(1-1), Tennessee –5.5. Return
This is going to be a tight, hard fought game. They both have injuries that are going to affect the game, but I think that they are “off-setting” (no pun intended). I don't think that I would put a wager on the spread for either team but I must say that if you're going to do a little NFL betting on this one, taking the under at 36 points is definitely not out of the question.
Side Notes: Under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings, Under is 8-1 in JAX's last nine games overall, Under is 5-1 in Titans last six played in Sept.

New Orleans(1-1) at St. Louis(1-1), St. Louis -7. Return
What can I say about this one. St. Louis Sucks, period. They have only covered the spread 3 times in their last 10 games and not even come close in their first 2 this season. Marc Bulger looks worse every time he steps out on the field and Marshall Faulk is in his twilight years( wink wink) New Orleans on the other hand looks to be improving, with a come from behind win against San Fransisco last week after losing The Duce, I have hopes for them yet. That being said I would caution against this game, just too many variables. But if you have to have NFL betting action, take New Orleans with the points.
Side Notes: Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings, Over is 10-4 in the Rams last 14 overall, NO is 1-6 ATS in the last seven played in Sept.

Philadelphia(2-0) at Detroit(2-0), Detroit +4.5. Return
Now this one is trouble! We all know what The Eagles can do offensively with weapons like Donovan McNabb, Terrell Owens, L.J. Smith and Brian Westbrook (combined for nearly 150yds.). But they also proved what a dynamite packed defense they have with their showing against Daunte, Moss and crew of number two ranked offense of the Minnesota Vikings. Now on to the Detroit Lions (are they roaring for real?), Quarterback Joey Harrington is the number 9th ranked QB with a passer rating of 93.8. That ain't not bad. Plus he showed no signs of giving up when Charles Rogers went down (again) with broken collarbone, immediately finding a home for the pigskin in the awaiting arms of rookie Wide Receiver Roy Williams (I love this guy) Hitting him four times for 73 yards and two strikes in the end-zone that Williams made look easy.
That being said they played the Houston Texans, 10th ranked offense, the Eagles are not a 10th ranked offense...the Lions are on a roll and have momentum, but so do the Eagles and although I think this is going to be a great game to watch, I don't think that Detroit can overcome their losses on the defensive side of the ball and come up with a victory. If I were doing any online NFL betting on this one (which I'm not) I would have to go with The Philadelphia Eagles -4.5. The Over Under at 44.5 is a crap shoot at best, wouldn't touch it either way.
Side Notes: PHI are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 overall, Eagles have won the last three meetings ATS.

Pittsburgh(1-1) at Miami(0-2), Miami -1. Return
Can you say coin toss. Despite all the injuries (just too damn many to list) and troubles that have plagued The Dolphins they are still a defensive powerhouse when it comes to the passing game. Herein lies the problem, The Dolphins give up an average of 138 yards a game rushing and The Steelers average just over the 100 yard mark. To counter that The Steelers proffer up a measly average of only 192 yards a game against a Dolphins defense that has only allowed an average of 110 yards a game. Did I say coin toss? I know everyone is saying, “hey, what about Ben Roethlisberger? Hey threw for two touchdowns against THE RAVENS!” He's a rookie QB, need I say more. There is light at the end of the tunnel for those that just have to have action on this game...The Over/Under! At 33.5 taking the under in this one is not at all a shabby bet and has me looking at it for a small NFL bet.
Side Notes: Under is 3-0-1 in the last four meeting, Under is 19-9 in MIA's last 28 on grass.

Arizona(0-2) at Atlanta(2-0), Atlanta -10. Return
OK let's take a look here The Cardinals are at the bottom of the heap when it comes to rush defense, albeit they might not have to stop Warrick Dunn (although he is expected to play), but they will have to stop Michael Vick (or is it Mike now), T.J Duckett and the emerging Justin Griffith. And the fact of the matter is they are 30th against the rush, 24th against the pass which puts them at the lowly state of being the 32nd ranked defense overall. And the woes don't stop there, The Cardinals pass ranking is 29th, rush ranking 27th and their overall offense ranking is just one above the bottom, 31st. Now The Falcons on the other hand are slightly below the middle of the pack with an overall defense ranking of 19th and an overall offense ranking of 16th but hidden in there is there rush ranking of...deep breath...number 2. But the Falcons are not without problems, Vick really only has two players to throw the ball to, Peerless Price and Alge Crumpler. That being said, I still see a sound thrashing ahead for the Cardinals. My online NFL betting will be on The Falcons to cover the spread and then some.
Side Notes: ARI is 4-13 ATS in their last 17 on the road, ATL has won the last two meeting against the spread (ATS), ATL is 6-3-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 overall.

Baltimore(1-1) at Cincinnati(1-1), Cincinnati +3. Return
Ok here is were I really can't give much. I'm a Cincinnati Fan and cannot in good conscious give any advice ideas or thoughts without my heart being a real factor in those words. I will say this much, I wouldn't put my money on either of them.

Chicago(1-1) at Minnesota(1-1), Minnesota -9. Return
This could be ugly, with a CB Charles Tillman out as well as Safety Mike Brown (out for season) CB’s Todd McMillon and rookie Nate Vasher must match up against the powerhouse that is the Vikings passing game. This could be a scoring frenzy by Randy Moss and the Vikings OTHER Wide Receivers. I can see big numbers coming out of Minnesota, with the spread currently setting at right around –9 it's not a stretch to make your NFL online betting with The Vikings-9.
Side Notes: MIN is 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings, MIN is 3-0 ATS in the last three at home.

Well that does it for the early games. I've got to get this fedora off my head, walk away from this terminal and play some video games...:)

I'll be back with the afternoon games and my opinions on them later tonight. I really hope that someone is reading this ;)-

NFL Betting Junkie Ramblings
Can we have some more game changing Player injuries Please

"If you aren't fired with enthusiasm, you'll be fired with enthusiasm."
Vince Lombardi

Well my fedoras firmly fixed in place and I'm now ready go about writing what I have alluded to from the beginning. But first let me take you back for just a bit in time and explain why I'm here in Cincinnati and why all this about online betting.

In 1999 I followed a beautiful young lady some 14 years my Junior back to the Midwest. Now first off, I didn't go purely because of love or the fact that I didn't think that another woman of her looks would ever want a disheveled, poorly dressed, and less than perfectly groomed man such as my self.
But there was also the fact that I HATED Las Vegas. I was either holed up in the house with my buddies drinking and what not or God forgive me, seeking solace from the bells whistles sirens and the constant clatter of coins hitting tin cans, by going to the closest TGIF's simply because there were no slot machines.
I mean I'm really not kidding when I say that we would drop 3, 4, 500 bucks a visit in bar tabs BEFORE going "Out on the town". So it was not the greatest of places for a man with a penchant for the booze a gambling habit...

I know it's cliche but Las Vegas truly does earn the saying, "it's a great place to visit, but you wouldn't want to live there.

So I found myself in Cincinnati, with a beautiful young bride and a starvation for the Sportsbooks and not a Casino with a Sportsbook to be found. How on earth would I feed this demon. I tried finding a booky, but with out very many connections in town that was easier said than done. But then I discovered the Internet once again and found a completely different world. But again I digress...

Coming up next, my veiws on the games this week as well as an injury report that might be worth a read for those NFL Gambling Junkies. It's uber-post time...

Wednesday, September 22, 2004





















NFL Week 3 Lines and Matchups

"Guys like Starr and Nitschke and Payton-- you hear those names and you can't help but ask yourself-- do I really belong here?"
Barry Sanders, during his induction to the NFL Hall of Fame

Sunday, Sep 26LineMoney LineTime
Houston
at Kansas City
47.5 o/u -102
-7.5 -101
Off1:00 PM ET
Jacksonville
at Tennessee
35.5 u 100
-5.5 -109
Off1:00 PM ET
New Orleans
at St. Louis
47.5 u -105
-7 102
Off1:00 PM ET
Philadelphia
at Detroit
44.5 u -105
+4.5 -107
Off1:00 PM ET
Pittsburgh
at Miami
33.5 u -105
-1 -107
Off1:00 PM ET
Arizona
at Atlanta
42.5 u -104
-10 101
Off1:00 PM ET
Baltimore
at Cincinnati
34.5 u -105
+3 -120
Off1:00 PM ET
Chicago
at Minnesota
44 u -111
-9 -102
Off1:00 PM ET
Cleveland
at New York Giants
37 u -110
-3 -109
Off1:00 PM ET
San Diego
at Denver
47 u 101
-10 -102
Off4:05 PM ET
San Francisco
at Seattle
44 u 101
-10.5 -101
Off4:15 PM ET
Green Bay
at Indianapolis
48.5 u -110
-6 100
Off4:15 PM ET
Tampa Bay
at Oakland
34.5 u -106
-3 -120
Off8:30 PM ET

Monday, Sep 27LineMoney LineTime
Dallas
at Washington
35.5 u -102
-2 100
Off8:30 PM ET

 

Be back shortly with commentary and better formatting, right now my fedora is becoming soaked with sweat as I think about the possibilities for this weeks gambling endeavors...With the injury reports that have come in it keeps looking worse for some teams, Kansas City Chiefs Fans, my heart goes out to you...

Tuesday, September 21, 2004

Top 5 NFL Offense, Defense and ATS

Top 5 NFL Offense

Team Y/GmRushPass
Dallas Cowboys432.098.5333.5
Minnesota Vikings 412.5107.0305.5
Indianapolis Colts409.5165.5244.0
New York Jets409.0170.5238.5
New England Patriots389.5127.0262.5

Top 5 NFL Defense

Team Y/GmRushPass
Washington Redskins223.046.0177.0
Miami Dolphins226.5138.088.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers236.5111.0125.5
Oakland Raiders240.087.0153.0
Denver Broncos247.0117.0130.0

Top 5 NFL Against The Spread (ATS)

Team ATSW/LO/U
Detroit Lions2-0-02-0-01-1-0
Jacksonville Jaguars2-0-02-0-00-2-0
New York Jets2-0-02-0-02-0-0
Philadelphia Eagles2-0-02-0-01-1-0
Seattle Seahawks2-0-02-0-00-2-0