NFL Online Betting Against the Spread Week 4 Monday Night Football
The Kansas City Chiefs(0-3) at The Baltimore Ravens(2-1)
Opening NFL Betting Line Ravens -4.5 -110 Over/Under 41.5 -110
Current High -7 -110
Current Low -5.5 -110
Over/Under 40.5-41.5 -110
It's Monday Night Football and boy oh boy do we have a match-up. NOT!
The Chiefs come into tonights game already having dropped more games than they did all season last year. Unfortunately for them I do not see the bleeding being stopped in Baltimore tonight. They have dismal offense with the exception of premiere running back Priest Holmes. This is not to say that they have no offense, it's just missing too many pieces. With WR Eddie Kennison not expected to play, Donte' Hall, minor though it may be (lips), playing hurt and RB Priest Holmes starting with an ankle injury, it's probably not even going to show the spark of life that it did last week against Houston.
The Ravens are not a whole lot better when it comes to offense. Although they rank near the bottom of the pile (25th overall) the come in 2nd rushing the ball. Here's the kicker, even though the Chiefs' are not far behind that number at 5 the Ravens can stop the rush (10th ranked) whereas the Chiefs cannot(29th).
So where does that leave us as far as a wager on this game goes? Well, since you asked, not as bad as it may look. I don't think that you can count on the Ravens to stop the Chiefs completely. Holmes will be Holmes after all and with TE Tony Gonzalez attracting double coverage, receivers Johnnie Morton, Donte' Hall and to a lesser degree youngster Chris Horn are going to get looks. So taking the Ravens to cover a TD, more or less, might be a taller order than it appears at first glance. By the same token, saying that the Chiefs will stay in it to the end as they did against the Texans' is equally treacherous. So is there money worth spending on this game? I think so. The Under at 41.5 or so. Both teams are going to try and establish a running game against the other. This is going to eat up time. Ravens' running back Jamal Lewis can get it done and I believe that the same can be said of Holmes. Barring him be seriously hampered with his ankle problem he will be able to ground out some yards. More importantly though is the fact that neither team has much in the air. That almost forces them into ground warfare even if they weren't planning it.
Bottom line, I have money on the Under at 41.5.
Monday, October 04, 2004
Sunday, October 03, 2004
NFL Online Betting Against the Spread Week 4 The Night Game
The St. Louis Rams(1-2) at The San Francisco 49ers(0-3)
Opening NFL betting Line St. Louis Rams -3.5 -110 Over/Under 44 -110
Current High -4 -105
Current Low Unchanged
Over/Under 44.5 -110
I'm not going to go into my typical long winded analysis of this match-up. Both teams look very much alike on paper in the offense. The Rams have better pass ranking, contrastly the 49ers have the better rush ranking.
On the other side of the ball the 49ers can mount a pretty decent rush D but not much against the pass. The Rams, however, offer up nothing defensively.
So what's the difference, the Rams can throw the ball. I don't like QB Marc Bulger, but he has great wide outs to throw to. That is going to be the key in this match-up.
My pick: St.Louis Rams get their first cover. I, despite my better judgement, actually have money on the Rams -3.5. It's not a lock, but not a waste either.
The St. Louis Rams(1-2) at The San Francisco 49ers(0-3)
Opening NFL betting Line St. Louis Rams -3.5 -110 Over/Under 44 -110
Current High -4 -105
Current Low Unchanged
Over/Under 44.5 -110
I'm not going to go into my typical long winded analysis of this match-up. Both teams look very much alike on paper in the offense. The Rams have better pass ranking, contrastly the 49ers have the better rush ranking.
On the other side of the ball the 49ers can mount a pretty decent rush D but not much against the pass. The Rams, however, offer up nothing defensively.
So what's the difference, the Rams can throw the ball. I don't like QB Marc Bulger, but he has great wide outs to throw to. That is going to be the key in this match-up.
My pick: St.Louis Rams get their first cover. I, despite my better judgement, actually have money on the Rams -3.5. It's not a lock, but not a waste either.
Friday, October 01, 2004
NFL Online Betting Against the Spread Week 4 Part Two
The Oakland Raiders(2-1) at The Houston Texans(1-2)
Opening NFL betting line Raiders -2 -110 Over/Under 42.5 -110
Current High Raiders -3 -115
Current Low Raiders -2 -110
Over/Under 42-42.5 -110
What can I really say about this game? The Raiders are bad, they lost to the underachieving Pittsburgh Steelers and their two wins are against arguably the worst looking offenses in the NFL. That being the Buffalo Bills and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, ranked 27th and 30th overall, respectively. What's more they allowed the Bucs' to score their first TD of the season, in route to their 30 to 20 victory. Oakland managed to up their overall offensive ranking with that win but they are still dismal. Granted they have something in the defense, but it isn't all that stellar and let us not forget that they are going to be without QB Rich Gannon. Did I mention that they allowed the Buccaneers first TD?
The Houston Texans are not any better. They have a middle of the road defense ranking of 15th and the same on the other side of the ball at 14th. The same thing has to be said about that number as I said about Oaklands', it was much bolstered by their win against the Kansas City Chiefs. Not exactly what you would call a dramatic, season changing win.
This will be a game that only the die-hard fans of either team will be able to watch with any enthusiasm what so ever.
Putting money on this game in any form is a waste, God only knows what could come of this match-up. If you have to have action, stick to a small wager and look at the Under 42.5 or higher.
Side Notes: Under is 19-9 in Raiders last 28 vs. Conf. Opp., Over is 5-1 in Houston in the last six played in October, Texans are 8-3 ATS last 11 vs. winning teams.
The Philadelphia Eagles(3-0) at The Chicago Bears(1-2)
Opening NFL betting line Eagles -8.5 -110
Current High Eagles -10 -105
Current Low Eagles -8.5 -115
Over/Under 39-40 -105 to -110
The Eagles are soaring but are they really soaring that high? Let's take a look at those three wins. Week 1 was against the N.Y. Giants who were playing at their worst with gaping wounds on both sides of the ball. Week 2 brought us the first real test of the Eagles D against the Minnesota Vikings. They held them to only 16 points and showed that they have a bit of defense (sorry Bronczilla, gotta go another direction here). Week 3 ended much as it should have with a thorough routing of the Detroit Lions. Although they rank a meager 24th overall defensively, that doesn't tell the whole story. They are in the top five when it comes to points allowed, with opponents only able to dig out 15.3 a game. And this has all been done ON THE ROAD. Maybe this is a fluke, just the right teams to play at the right time. Maybe it is superior coaching on the part of Phili'. But maybe, just maybe, they really are putting a solid defense on the field, that is allowing yardage, but not scoring.
Now let's move on to the Chicago Bears. With the loss of QB Rex Grossman adding to the already extensive IR list, the injury plague continues unabated in Chicago. This means that QB Jonathan Quinn will sit behind center, and will be doing a lot of handing the ball off. Philadelphia will be loading the box against the Bears to stop the only thing that they have left, RB Thomas Jones. Although the passing game was starting to warm up with Grossman throwing to wide receivers David Terrell and Bobby Wade, that's not going to continue with Quinn. They are going to have to fall back to the Bears of old with a ground and pound attitude. So even though I greatly respect what they have done with what they have, I just don't see their defense keeping them in this one for four quarters.
My take is simple, Phili isn't Green Bay or Minnesota or Detroit. They are on a rush and I don't see the Bears putting a stop to it. It will probably come late in the game but it will come, the Eagles will go up by 10 and stay there. I have put a little money on this game and it's for the Eagles -8.5.
Side Notes: Road team is 3-1 ATS in last four meetings, Eagles are 10-3 ATS in last 13 vs. sub .500 teams, Bears are 6-2 ATS in their last eight at home.
The Washington Redskins(1-2) at The Cleveland Browns(1-2)
Opening NFL betting line Redskins -3 -110 Over/Under 36 -110
Current High Redskins Unchanged
Current Low Redskins Unchanged
Over/Under 35.5-35 -110
This is another gut it out game. The Redskins give up 100+ yards less in the air, 50+ yards less on the ground and the point differential is negligible(less than a point diff.) Washington has the number 3 ranked defense and even though the offense isn't what coach Joe Gibbs wants it to be yet, it's starting to show sparks of life. The Redskins MNF game against the Cowboys showed us that much. Clock management, or lack there of, was all that kept that game from going into OT. QB Mark Brunell had his game face on and if it wasn't for a couple of key dropped balls by WR Laveraneus Coles they may very well have never had to look to a last ditch effort.
The Browns on the other hand opened the season with a big win against AFC North opponent Baltimore Ravens. But that was then and this is now. They have since dropped the last two at home against the Cowboys by 7 and the Giants by 17. While Cleveland may well get back their starting CB Daylon McCutcheon he's not going to be 100% and will be playing with one of three different casts the trainers have made for him. Added into the mix is the fact that their other starting CB, Anthony Henry, is suffering from vertigo. On paper the Browns are behind in almost every category and the 3 point home field advantage is not going to be enough.
Final analysis, if you are going to wager on this game there are two ways to go. The Under is not bad if you can get it at around it's opening mark of 36, but that might be tough to do. Taking the Redskins -3 is also not a terrible wager although I don't think that I will be putting my cash on it.
Side Notes: Under is 5-2 in Redskins last seven overall, Browns last five overall have played Under, Browns are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 overall, Redskins are 1-3 ATS in their last four overall.
The Atlanta Falcons(3-0) at The Carolina Panthers(1-1)
Opening NFL betting line Panthers -3.5 -110 Over/Under 40 -110
Current High Panthers -3.5 -110 to -115
Current Low Panthers -3 -120
Over/Under 38.5-39 -110
The Falcons baffled me with their complete lack of offense last week vs. the Cardinals. What happened Vick? Seriously what the heck went wrong? I think I know. They played a stingy defense. Arizona is another team who's overall DEF ranking does not show the whole picture. They give up yardage to be sure but the have a redzone D that's worth mentioning and a pretty solid pass D. And I think that's what happened last week. QB Michael Vick is going to have to do exactly what coach Jim Mora doesn't want him to do, RUN! The running game is the only chance the Falcons have, because it is the only place the Panthers DEF is suspect.
The Panthers have given up an average 130+ yards a game and are going to have to improve those numbers against the Falcons. They are also another team that weren't really effected with the bye. They are still without RB Stephen Davis and WR Steve Smith and the week off wouldn't have changed that. They have adversity to overcome to be sure, but RB DeShaun Foster continues to get better and WR Keary Colbert appears to be filling in the shoes of oft' injured Steve Smith quite well. I see them coming into their own as the season progresses and think that the Falcons are going to be a small test of that this week.
My take, for what it's worth, is that the Panthers can keep the field long for the Falcons and if they can do a bit better against the rush will win this one by a TD or better. Panthers -3-3.5 is not a crap shoot, and the Under at 39 is a solid pick.
Side Notes: Falcons are 0-3 ATS in their last three played in Oct., Panthers are 1-3 ATS in last four at home in Oct, Under is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings, Under is 12-4 in CAR's 16 when total is 38.5-42, Under is 9-3 in the Falcons last 12 overall.
The New Orleans Saints(2-1) at The Arizona Cardinals(0-3)
Opening NFL betting line Saints -3 -110 Over/Under 40.5 -110
Current High Saints -3.5 -100
Current Low Saints -3 -115
Over/Under 39.5-40 -105 to -115
In a nutshell I don't like this game against the spread. The Saints are a streaky team and can throw away what should be a gimme as easily as win. Couple that with the Questionable list that carries the names of RB Duece McAllister, wide-outs Joe Horn, Talman Gardner, and Jerome Pathon, and it looks worse. But it's the Saints and you just don't know. They may come up big and blow out the Cards' or they may fall apart and give the Cards' their first win of the season.
The Cardinals are one of those teams that look bad on the spread sheet, yet somehow seem to come up with something on the field that keeps them in close games. They have very little offensively and have given up 370 yards in the air and 180 on the ground and yet have managed to hold opponents to an average of only 15 points a game. This includes keeping the reigning Champion Patriots out of the end-zone three times from the 2, 10, and 2-yard line in the second half. They stymied any attack that the Falcons proffered up and kept them out of the end-zone entirely. Does this mean that they are going to get their first win? Not necessarily. But it does mean that the Saints are going to have to SHOW UP to get a win.
Logic would tell you that the Saints cover -3 without issue. But this is football not mathematics. The things in play here are best noted by the adage “On Any Given Sunday”. My advice, stay away from the spread and if you want action take the Under at 40.
Side Notes: Saints are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings, Saints are 5-2 ATS in last seven played in Oct., Under is 13-4 in the Cards last 17 at home, Under is 9-2 in Arizona last 11 played in Oct.
The Denver Broncos(2-1) at The Tampa Bay Buccaneers(0-3)
Opening NFl betting line Broncos -3 -110 Over/Under 36 -110
Current High -3.5 -105
Current Low -3 -125
Over/Under 35 -110
Despite charging from the gate with 156 yards against the Chiefs in week one RB Quentin Griffin has not filled the void left by Clinton Portis. He has subsequently been held to 66 yards on 26 carries against the Jags'. Then shared the load with running backs Garrison Hearst and Tatum Bell (Bell is inactive for game 4) getting a measly 7 yards on 12 carries and Denver was held to only a net of 37 yards on the ground. Now the Chargers are 7th against the rush, so there is at least a reason there. On the flip side, QB Jake Plummer has looked solid, with a passer rating just south of 91, with 774 yards, and 4 end-zone completions. But they are getting ready to play against the QB stat killing Bucs' D.
The Buccaneers have laid waste to quarter backs thus far. Knocking Raiders QB Rich Gannon out and quite frankly making longtime veteran Mark Brunell and young gun Matt Hasselbeck look terrible. The Buccaneers don't have much but a D to bring to the field. They have looked as bad behind the snap as they have made others look. The big difference being that the OTHERS have won. Tampa is playing like coach Jon Gruden looks on the sideline, Ugly.
Bottom Line Denver gets win #3 Tampa goes 0-4. But betting this one against the spread is a bad idea. In fact betting this at all is a bad idea, but if you have to get in the fray then do yourself a favor and take the Under at 35. Oh, and make it small.
Side Notes: Broncos are 0-3 ATS in last four played in Oct., Under is 4-2 in Bronco's last six overall, Under is 6-2 in Buc's last eight played in Oct., Under is 10-4 in Tampa's last 14 games overall.
The N.Y. Jets(2-0) at The Miami Dolphins(0-3)
Opening NFl betting line Jets -5 -110 Over/Under 36 -110
Current High Jets -7 -110
Current Low Jets -6 -105
Over/Under 36.5-37.5 -106 to -110
Now here's a game I can sink my teeth into. The Jets are a team that may have gotten a break with the bye in that they may be getting Kevin Mawae back at center. But even if he doesn't stay there they will shift him to guard and play LG Pete Kendall at center. In either case Mawae is a crucial component to the Jets running game and the extra week to help his hand heal a bit is a good thing. QB Chad Pennington keeps getting better with each passing game. He has earned his unbelievable QB rating of 124.3 by playing smart, controlled football. He's a true leader in the huddle and is the center piece of this franchise. Now that I've stated the obvious let's get to the downside. Defensively they are no powerhouse, they get the job done but it's the offense that is relied on to win games. This is going to be their first real test of that theory.
The Dolphins come into this game a battered team. They have an injury list as long as my arm, have little weaponry at their disposal to put points on the board and no hope that I see of that changing any time soon. The Dolphins don't give up much in the air but they do on the ground. Now they are going to have to play a team that has a solid ground game as well as a solid passing game led by a top notch QB. This is not going to be like playing the Steelers with rookie QB Ben Roethlisberger or the Bengals with upstart QB Carson Palmer or even the seasoned veteran of the Titans, QB Steve McNair. All of those teams hang on the bottom rungs of the rankings. They are playing The Jets. Number three overall and only looking to better the pass ranking of 13th this week.
Pick Of The Week Jets -6 is a solid wager. I grabbed it at -5.5 but I don't see the extra ½ point as being enough to turn your back on this game.
Side Notes: Not going to bother, this Miami team isn't in the ballpark of it's former self. So any and all trends go out with the tide.
The Tennessee Titans(1-2) at The San Diego Chargers(1-2)
Opening NFL betting line Titans -3 -110 Over/Under 41 -110
Current High Unchanged
Current Low Unchanged
Over/Under Unchanged
This is a game that looks to be about as fun to watch as the Raiders vs. Texans. The Titans' QB Steve McNair is a big question mark to play Sunday with a bruised sternum and twisted ankle. Which means that the five year unknown QB Billy Volek might well get the nod. Even if McNair does manage to start he's going to play like he has a good portion of his career, hurting.
The Chargers don't have an injured QB to worry about, they just have to worry about what happens when they put one the field. QB Drew Brees has been a bust from day one. Back-up QB Doug Fluties' best days are way behind him, and they were never what anyone would consider hallmark days. But they do have RB LaDainian Tomlinson. I wish there was more but there just isn't. I could ramble off some random rankings but it's a mute point. These are two teams that are in desperate need.
Bottom line I wouldn't put free money on this game either way although Titans will probably come up with the win. The Over at 41 is just shy of throwing your money away. Best bet stay away from this one.
Side Notes: Over is 6-1 in Titans last seven played in Oct., The last two meetings have played under, Over is 7-3 in the Chargers last 10 in Oct., Over is 8-3 in SD last 11 games overall, Chargers have won the last three meetings ATS.
The Oakland Raiders(2-1) at The Houston Texans(1-2)
Opening NFL betting line Raiders -2 -110 Over/Under 42.5 -110
Current High Raiders -3 -115
Current Low Raiders -2 -110
Over/Under 42-42.5 -110
What can I really say about this game? The Raiders are bad, they lost to the underachieving Pittsburgh Steelers and their two wins are against arguably the worst looking offenses in the NFL. That being the Buffalo Bills and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, ranked 27th and 30th overall, respectively. What's more they allowed the Bucs' to score their first TD of the season, in route to their 30 to 20 victory. Oakland managed to up their overall offensive ranking with that win but they are still dismal. Granted they have something in the defense, but it isn't all that stellar and let us not forget that they are going to be without QB Rich Gannon. Did I mention that they allowed the Buccaneers first TD?
The Houston Texans are not any better. They have a middle of the road defense ranking of 15th and the same on the other side of the ball at 14th. The same thing has to be said about that number as I said about Oaklands', it was much bolstered by their win against the Kansas City Chiefs. Not exactly what you would call a dramatic, season changing win.
This will be a game that only the die-hard fans of either team will be able to watch with any enthusiasm what so ever.
Putting money on this game in any form is a waste, God only knows what could come of this match-up. If you have to have action, stick to a small wager and look at the Under 42.5 or higher.
Side Notes: Under is 19-9 in Raiders last 28 vs. Conf. Opp., Over is 5-1 in Houston in the last six played in October, Texans are 8-3 ATS last 11 vs. winning teams.
The Philadelphia Eagles(3-0) at The Chicago Bears(1-2)
Opening NFL betting line Eagles -8.5 -110
Current High Eagles -10 -105
Current Low Eagles -8.5 -115
Over/Under 39-40 -105 to -110
The Eagles are soaring but are they really soaring that high? Let's take a look at those three wins. Week 1 was against the N.Y. Giants who were playing at their worst with gaping wounds on both sides of the ball. Week 2 brought us the first real test of the Eagles D against the Minnesota Vikings. They held them to only 16 points and showed that they have a bit of defense (sorry Bronczilla, gotta go another direction here). Week 3 ended much as it should have with a thorough routing of the Detroit Lions. Although they rank a meager 24th overall defensively, that doesn't tell the whole story. They are in the top five when it comes to points allowed, with opponents only able to dig out 15.3 a game. And this has all been done ON THE ROAD. Maybe this is a fluke, just the right teams to play at the right time. Maybe it is superior coaching on the part of Phili'. But maybe, just maybe, they really are putting a solid defense on the field, that is allowing yardage, but not scoring.
Now let's move on to the Chicago Bears. With the loss of QB Rex Grossman adding to the already extensive IR list, the injury plague continues unabated in Chicago. This means that QB Jonathan Quinn will sit behind center, and will be doing a lot of handing the ball off. Philadelphia will be loading the box against the Bears to stop the only thing that they have left, RB Thomas Jones. Although the passing game was starting to warm up with Grossman throwing to wide receivers David Terrell and Bobby Wade, that's not going to continue with Quinn. They are going to have to fall back to the Bears of old with a ground and pound attitude. So even though I greatly respect what they have done with what they have, I just don't see their defense keeping them in this one for four quarters.
My take is simple, Phili isn't Green Bay or Minnesota or Detroit. They are on a rush and I don't see the Bears putting a stop to it. It will probably come late in the game but it will come, the Eagles will go up by 10 and stay there. I have put a little money on this game and it's for the Eagles -8.5.
Side Notes: Road team is 3-1 ATS in last four meetings, Eagles are 10-3 ATS in last 13 vs. sub .500 teams, Bears are 6-2 ATS in their last eight at home.
The Washington Redskins(1-2) at The Cleveland Browns(1-2)
Opening NFL betting line Redskins -3 -110 Over/Under 36 -110
Current High Redskins Unchanged
Current Low Redskins Unchanged
Over/Under 35.5-35 -110
This is another gut it out game. The Redskins give up 100+ yards less in the air, 50+ yards less on the ground and the point differential is negligible(less than a point diff.) Washington has the number 3 ranked defense and even though the offense isn't what coach Joe Gibbs wants it to be yet, it's starting to show sparks of life. The Redskins MNF game against the Cowboys showed us that much. Clock management, or lack there of, was all that kept that game from going into OT. QB Mark Brunell had his game face on and if it wasn't for a couple of key dropped balls by WR Laveraneus Coles they may very well have never had to look to a last ditch effort.
The Browns on the other hand opened the season with a big win against AFC North opponent Baltimore Ravens. But that was then and this is now. They have since dropped the last two at home against the Cowboys by 7 and the Giants by 17. While Cleveland may well get back their starting CB Daylon McCutcheon he's not going to be 100% and will be playing with one of three different casts the trainers have made for him. Added into the mix is the fact that their other starting CB, Anthony Henry, is suffering from vertigo. On paper the Browns are behind in almost every category and the 3 point home field advantage is not going to be enough.
Final analysis, if you are going to wager on this game there are two ways to go. The Under is not bad if you can get it at around it's opening mark of 36, but that might be tough to do. Taking the Redskins -3 is also not a terrible wager although I don't think that I will be putting my cash on it.
Side Notes: Under is 5-2 in Redskins last seven overall, Browns last five overall have played Under, Browns are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 overall, Redskins are 1-3 ATS in their last four overall.
The Atlanta Falcons(3-0) at The Carolina Panthers(1-1)
Opening NFL betting line Panthers -3.5 -110 Over/Under 40 -110
Current High Panthers -3.5 -110 to -115
Current Low Panthers -3 -120
Over/Under 38.5-39 -110
The Falcons baffled me with their complete lack of offense last week vs. the Cardinals. What happened Vick? Seriously what the heck went wrong? I think I know. They played a stingy defense. Arizona is another team who's overall DEF ranking does not show the whole picture. They give up yardage to be sure but the have a redzone D that's worth mentioning and a pretty solid pass D. And I think that's what happened last week. QB Michael Vick is going to have to do exactly what coach Jim Mora doesn't want him to do, RUN! The running game is the only chance the Falcons have, because it is the only place the Panthers DEF is suspect.
The Panthers have given up an average 130+ yards a game and are going to have to improve those numbers against the Falcons. They are also another team that weren't really effected with the bye. They are still without RB Stephen Davis and WR Steve Smith and the week off wouldn't have changed that. They have adversity to overcome to be sure, but RB DeShaun Foster continues to get better and WR Keary Colbert appears to be filling in the shoes of oft' injured Steve Smith quite well. I see them coming into their own as the season progresses and think that the Falcons are going to be a small test of that this week.
My take, for what it's worth, is that the Panthers can keep the field long for the Falcons and if they can do a bit better against the rush will win this one by a TD or better. Panthers -3-3.5 is not a crap shoot, and the Under at 39 is a solid pick.
Side Notes: Falcons are 0-3 ATS in their last three played in Oct., Panthers are 1-3 ATS in last four at home in Oct, Under is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings, Under is 12-4 in CAR's 16 when total is 38.5-42, Under is 9-3 in the Falcons last 12 overall.
The New Orleans Saints(2-1) at The Arizona Cardinals(0-3)
Opening NFL betting line Saints -3 -110 Over/Under 40.5 -110
Current High Saints -3.5 -100
Current Low Saints -3 -115
Over/Under 39.5-40 -105 to -115
In a nutshell I don't like this game against the spread. The Saints are a streaky team and can throw away what should be a gimme as easily as win. Couple that with the Questionable list that carries the names of RB Duece McAllister, wide-outs Joe Horn, Talman Gardner, and Jerome Pathon, and it looks worse. But it's the Saints and you just don't know. They may come up big and blow out the Cards' or they may fall apart and give the Cards' their first win of the season.
The Cardinals are one of those teams that look bad on the spread sheet, yet somehow seem to come up with something on the field that keeps them in close games. They have very little offensively and have given up 370 yards in the air and 180 on the ground and yet have managed to hold opponents to an average of only 15 points a game. This includes keeping the reigning Champion Patriots out of the end-zone three times from the 2, 10, and 2-yard line in the second half. They stymied any attack that the Falcons proffered up and kept them out of the end-zone entirely. Does this mean that they are going to get their first win? Not necessarily. But it does mean that the Saints are going to have to SHOW UP to get a win.
Logic would tell you that the Saints cover -3 without issue. But this is football not mathematics. The things in play here are best noted by the adage “On Any Given Sunday”. My advice, stay away from the spread and if you want action take the Under at 40.
Side Notes: Saints are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings, Saints are 5-2 ATS in last seven played in Oct., Under is 13-4 in the Cards last 17 at home, Under is 9-2 in Arizona last 11 played in Oct.
The Denver Broncos(2-1) at The Tampa Bay Buccaneers(0-3)
Opening NFl betting line Broncos -3 -110 Over/Under 36 -110
Current High -3.5 -105
Current Low -3 -125
Over/Under 35 -110
Despite charging from the gate with 156 yards against the Chiefs in week one RB Quentin Griffin has not filled the void left by Clinton Portis. He has subsequently been held to 66 yards on 26 carries against the Jags'. Then shared the load with running backs Garrison Hearst and Tatum Bell (Bell is inactive for game 4) getting a measly 7 yards on 12 carries and Denver was held to only a net of 37 yards on the ground. Now the Chargers are 7th against the rush, so there is at least a reason there. On the flip side, QB Jake Plummer has looked solid, with a passer rating just south of 91, with 774 yards, and 4 end-zone completions. But they are getting ready to play against the QB stat killing Bucs' D.
The Buccaneers have laid waste to quarter backs thus far. Knocking Raiders QB Rich Gannon out and quite frankly making longtime veteran Mark Brunell and young gun Matt Hasselbeck look terrible. The Buccaneers don't have much but a D to bring to the field. They have looked as bad behind the snap as they have made others look. The big difference being that the OTHERS have won. Tampa is playing like coach Jon Gruden looks on the sideline, Ugly.
Bottom Line Denver gets win #3 Tampa goes 0-4. But betting this one against the spread is a bad idea. In fact betting this at all is a bad idea, but if you have to get in the fray then do yourself a favor and take the Under at 35. Oh, and make it small.
Side Notes: Broncos are 0-3 ATS in last four played in Oct., Under is 4-2 in Bronco's last six overall, Under is 6-2 in Buc's last eight played in Oct., Under is 10-4 in Tampa's last 14 games overall.
The N.Y. Jets(2-0) at The Miami Dolphins(0-3)
Opening NFl betting line Jets -5 -110 Over/Under 36 -110
Current High Jets -7 -110
Current Low Jets -6 -105
Over/Under 36.5-37.5 -106 to -110
Now here's a game I can sink my teeth into. The Jets are a team that may have gotten a break with the bye in that they may be getting Kevin Mawae back at center. But even if he doesn't stay there they will shift him to guard and play LG Pete Kendall at center. In either case Mawae is a crucial component to the Jets running game and the extra week to help his hand heal a bit is a good thing. QB Chad Pennington keeps getting better with each passing game. He has earned his unbelievable QB rating of 124.3 by playing smart, controlled football. He's a true leader in the huddle and is the center piece of this franchise. Now that I've stated the obvious let's get to the downside. Defensively they are no powerhouse, they get the job done but it's the offense that is relied on to win games. This is going to be their first real test of that theory.
The Dolphins come into this game a battered team. They have an injury list as long as my arm, have little weaponry at their disposal to put points on the board and no hope that I see of that changing any time soon. The Dolphins don't give up much in the air but they do on the ground. Now they are going to have to play a team that has a solid ground game as well as a solid passing game led by a top notch QB. This is not going to be like playing the Steelers with rookie QB Ben Roethlisberger or the Bengals with upstart QB Carson Palmer or even the seasoned veteran of the Titans, QB Steve McNair. All of those teams hang on the bottom rungs of the rankings. They are playing The Jets. Number three overall and only looking to better the pass ranking of 13th this week.
Pick Of The Week Jets -6 is a solid wager. I grabbed it at -5.5 but I don't see the extra ½ point as being enough to turn your back on this game.
Side Notes: Not going to bother, this Miami team isn't in the ballpark of it's former self. So any and all trends go out with the tide.
The Tennessee Titans(1-2) at The San Diego Chargers(1-2)
Opening NFL betting line Titans -3 -110 Over/Under 41 -110
Current High Unchanged
Current Low Unchanged
Over/Under Unchanged
This is a game that looks to be about as fun to watch as the Raiders vs. Texans. The Titans' QB Steve McNair is a big question mark to play Sunday with a bruised sternum and twisted ankle. Which means that the five year unknown QB Billy Volek might well get the nod. Even if McNair does manage to start he's going to play like he has a good portion of his career, hurting.
The Chargers don't have an injured QB to worry about, they just have to worry about what happens when they put one the field. QB Drew Brees has been a bust from day one. Back-up QB Doug Fluties' best days are way behind him, and they were never what anyone would consider hallmark days. But they do have RB LaDainian Tomlinson. I wish there was more but there just isn't. I could ramble off some random rankings but it's a mute point. These are two teams that are in desperate need.
Bottom line I wouldn't put free money on this game either way although Titans will probably come up with the win. The Over at 41 is just shy of throwing your money away. Best bet stay away from this one.
Side Notes: Over is 6-1 in Titans last seven played in Oct., The last two meetings have played under, Over is 7-3 in the Chargers last 10 in Oct., Over is 8-3 in SD last 11 games overall, Chargers have won the last three meetings ATS.
Thursday, September 30, 2004
NFL Online Betting Against the Spread Week 4 Part One
The Cincinnati Bengals(1-2) at The Pittsburgh Steelers(2-1)
Opening NFL betting line Steelers -3.5 -110 Over/Under 39 -110
Current High Steelers -5 -110
Current Low Steelers -4 -110
Over/Under 38-39 -110
I wrote about 250 words on this match-up and as I read I realized that I was doing exactly what I was trying to avoid. I just can't be objective when talking about The Bengals. The fact is I love this team and that makes everything I write suspect. Even when I'm writing a disparaging paragraph about them I'm overly harsh, because My Opinions of what should be happening on the field are not happening. So I'm going to refrain from giving a take on this game, but I'm saving my draft, and will post it later for anyone who may be interested.
The Indianapolis Colts(2-1) at The Jacksonville Jaguars(3-0)
Opening NFL betting line Colts -3.5 -110 Over/Under 42 -110
Current High Colts -4.5 -110
Current Low Colts -3.5 -115
Over/Under 43 -110
Well For those that saw The Packers vs. The Colts we all know what's in store for The Jacksonville Jaguars. Even though The Jaguars Secondary is not nearly as suspect as the Packs', sitting towards the top of the heap at a solid 8th against the pass, let us not forget the weapons that are at the disposal of Payton Manning. Could we see Tight End Dallas Clark finally emerge on the scene this week? If that happens it will only mean more bad news for The Jaguars.
Ah, The Jaguars... Despite only having scored a total of 35 points in the first 3 games they sit atop their division ahead of The colts by one game, and stand proud as one of only 6 teams that are undefeated. But they are going to have to do a lot to keep that lofty status this Sunday. Despite the fact that they will be going up against the leagues worst defense (32nd overall) they are going to have to be a different team offensively than we have seen thus far to make it a game that their defense can keep them in. They have won the close ones because they were close. They have thus far played ball against mediocre offenses, and this ain't a mediocre offense. They have not shown the prowess that they are going to have to have on the offensive side of the ball to keep up.
Analysis: If you can get them -3.5 or 4, it's not a horrible bet. The Over/Under I would stay away from.
Side Notes: Colts are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six overall, Colts are 1-6 ATS in last seven played in Oct., Jaguars are 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.
The New England Patriots(2-0) at The Buffalo Bills(0-2)
Opening NFL betting line Patriots -5.5 -110 Over/Under 35.5 -110
Current High Patriots -6.5 -110
Current Low Patriots -5.5 -110
Over/Under 35 -110
The New England Patriots sit tied with the N.Y. Jets in the AFC East and are also undefeated. They are coming off a bye week which means, well it means nothing really. This early in the season, it just doesn't mean as much as those teams that are going to be getting theirs in weeks 7-10. Those players that it could have impacted, namely WR Deion Branch and QB Tom Brady, it didn't. Well maybe it aided Brady a bit, giving him the opportunity to rest his shoulder an extra week. But he's listed as Probable and will start and it would have been the same last week. Branch is Doubtful, will probably not play, and that wouldn't have been any different last week. They, and I mean the The Pats' as a whole, didn't really need a break and in fact it might be to their detriment. In week one those beat The Colts in a close game and had just started to show us a bit of the NFL Championship winning offense in the win against The Arizona Cardinals in week two. But that being what it may, they are relatively healthy, are the reigning Champions and have everything to prove. Brady may not be the best QB in the game but he is a true leader and that counts for a ton in this day and age.
The Bills however are stingy when it comes to giving up points, holding their opponents to an average of only 13 points and giving up only 249 total yards a game. They are 4th against the rush and 6th against the pass, despite the loss of Strong Safety Lawyer Milloy in the pre-season. So where's the catch? It's two fold really, first the numbers are deceiving. To begin with, their first game was against The Jaguars, and we know what kind of offense they can mount, their second was against The Raiders. Who, until last weeks game, were just a whisper above The Jags'. But it doesn't stop there, they LOST to both of them. Now the second part, I for one am still waiting for the resurgence of QB Drew Bledsoe and The Bills Offense that I keep hearing talk about but have yet to see materialize. Bottom line even at home I don't think they will be getting their first win of the season this weekend.
But wins and losses don't always matter when it comes to handicapping, so when it comes down to laying money on this game I have to lean towards staying away from this one. The Pats' could as easily cover as not. It's a coin flip in my opinion. The Over/Under on the other hand is not nearly as treacherous. If you want action on this game and were asking my opinion I would say, “make it small and take the Under at 35”.
Side Notes: The last 10 meetings have played Under, Under is 16-2 in Bills last 18 overall.
The N.Y. Giants(2-1) at The Green Bay Packers(1-2)
Opening NFL betting line Packers -7 -110 Over/Under 44 -110
Current High Packers -7.5 Even
Current Low Packers -7 -110
Over/Under 43.5-44 -110
The N.Y. Giants are not playing giant football, but they aren't without merit either. They lost to a much better team in their Home opener to The Philadelphia Eagles, and The Eagles covered. They walked on the field an underdog to The Washington Redskins and won. Then did exactly what they were supposed to do in beating The Cleveland Browns, covering the spread in the process. Now the face off against The Packers. Boy, oh boy, I don't like this one. The Giants are hurting at nearly every position, and their lack of depth due to this means that any injury during this game is going to have an impact. The most susceptible point being in the secondary. With the injury reserved list in all likelihood getting the name Shaun Williams (Strong Safety) added another strike there could be the proverbial straw. I have to say that they have played proudly despite these problems but are really going to have their plate full when they hit Lambeau Field. Quarter Back Kurt Warner and crew are going to have to try and follow suit, and do as much damage in the air as they can.
Now we move on to the Packers, who are not fairing much better in their secondary. With CBs Mike McKenzie and Ahmad Carroll both listed as Questionable and the vulnerability that was exposed and exploited by The Colts, they also have the problem of being hurt nearly everywhere else on defense. The rift in the locker room, trade talk about McKenzie and the ailing shoulder of QB Brett Favre all add up to a tough road ahead for The Packs'. Running Back Ahman Green is going to have to step up big for this game. If the Packers can't do a good job of clock management with long drives that keep their desolated defense on the sidelines it mean the first three game losing streak in Mike Sherman's five seasons at the helm.
Enough rambling, let's get to the heart of this, my “pick”. The Packers certainly have the skills to cover 7 points on the offensive side of the ball but can they keep The Giants from lashing right back at them. I think they can. Favre is known for his ability to come big when the chips are down. They are going to be at home, and that is worth more than the standard 3 points in this case. I may actually put a little of my own money on this one.
Bottom line Packers -7 is worthy of a early season small wager. Probably a safer bet, however, is the Over. Particularly if you can get it down around the 43 mark.
Side Notes: Packers are 3-1 ATS in the last three meetings, Giants are 2-5 ATS in last seven Oct. games, Packers are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 overall
Well I ended up writing a lot more than I intended so I'm going to break here and finish with the rest of week 4 tomorrow. My thanks for dropping in and taking a peek.
The Cincinnati Bengals(1-2) at The Pittsburgh Steelers(2-1)
Opening NFL betting line Steelers -3.5 -110 Over/Under 39 -110
Current High Steelers -5 -110
Current Low Steelers -4 -110
Over/Under 38-39 -110
I wrote about 250 words on this match-up and as I read I realized that I was doing exactly what I was trying to avoid. I just can't be objective when talking about The Bengals. The fact is I love this team and that makes everything I write suspect. Even when I'm writing a disparaging paragraph about them I'm overly harsh, because My Opinions of what should be happening on the field are not happening. So I'm going to refrain from giving a take on this game, but I'm saving my draft, and will post it later for anyone who may be interested.
The Indianapolis Colts(2-1) at The Jacksonville Jaguars(3-0)
Opening NFL betting line Colts -3.5 -110 Over/Under 42 -110
Current High Colts -4.5 -110
Current Low Colts -3.5 -115
Over/Under 43 -110
Well For those that saw The Packers vs. The Colts we all know what's in store for The Jacksonville Jaguars. Even though The Jaguars Secondary is not nearly as suspect as the Packs', sitting towards the top of the heap at a solid 8th against the pass, let us not forget the weapons that are at the disposal of Payton Manning. Could we see Tight End Dallas Clark finally emerge on the scene this week? If that happens it will only mean more bad news for The Jaguars.
Ah, The Jaguars... Despite only having scored a total of 35 points in the first 3 games they sit atop their division ahead of The colts by one game, and stand proud as one of only 6 teams that are undefeated. But they are going to have to do a lot to keep that lofty status this Sunday. Despite the fact that they will be going up against the leagues worst defense (32nd overall) they are going to have to be a different team offensively than we have seen thus far to make it a game that their defense can keep them in. They have won the close ones because they were close. They have thus far played ball against mediocre offenses, and this ain't a mediocre offense. They have not shown the prowess that they are going to have to have on the offensive side of the ball to keep up.
Analysis: If you can get them -3.5 or 4, it's not a horrible bet. The Over/Under I would stay away from.
Side Notes: Colts are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six overall, Colts are 1-6 ATS in last seven played in Oct., Jaguars are 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.
The New England Patriots(2-0) at The Buffalo Bills(0-2)
Opening NFL betting line Patriots -5.5 -110 Over/Under 35.5 -110
Current High Patriots -6.5 -110
Current Low Patriots -5.5 -110
Over/Under 35 -110
The New England Patriots sit tied with the N.Y. Jets in the AFC East and are also undefeated. They are coming off a bye week which means, well it means nothing really. This early in the season, it just doesn't mean as much as those teams that are going to be getting theirs in weeks 7-10. Those players that it could have impacted, namely WR Deion Branch and QB Tom Brady, it didn't. Well maybe it aided Brady a bit, giving him the opportunity to rest his shoulder an extra week. But he's listed as Probable and will start and it would have been the same last week. Branch is Doubtful, will probably not play, and that wouldn't have been any different last week. They, and I mean the The Pats' as a whole, didn't really need a break and in fact it might be to their detriment. In week one those beat The Colts in a close game and had just started to show us a bit of the NFL Championship winning offense in the win against The Arizona Cardinals in week two. But that being what it may, they are relatively healthy, are the reigning Champions and have everything to prove. Brady may not be the best QB in the game but he is a true leader and that counts for a ton in this day and age.
The Bills however are stingy when it comes to giving up points, holding their opponents to an average of only 13 points and giving up only 249 total yards a game. They are 4th against the rush and 6th against the pass, despite the loss of Strong Safety Lawyer Milloy in the pre-season. So where's the catch? It's two fold really, first the numbers are deceiving. To begin with, their first game was against The Jaguars, and we know what kind of offense they can mount, their second was against The Raiders. Who, until last weeks game, were just a whisper above The Jags'. But it doesn't stop there, they LOST to both of them. Now the second part, I for one am still waiting for the resurgence of QB Drew Bledsoe and The Bills Offense that I keep hearing talk about but have yet to see materialize. Bottom line even at home I don't think they will be getting their first win of the season this weekend.
But wins and losses don't always matter when it comes to handicapping, so when it comes down to laying money on this game I have to lean towards staying away from this one. The Pats' could as easily cover as not. It's a coin flip in my opinion. The Over/Under on the other hand is not nearly as treacherous. If you want action on this game and were asking my opinion I would say, “make it small and take the Under at 35”.
Side Notes: The last 10 meetings have played Under, Under is 16-2 in Bills last 18 overall.
The N.Y. Giants(2-1) at The Green Bay Packers(1-2)
Opening NFL betting line Packers -7 -110 Over/Under 44 -110
Current High Packers -7.5 Even
Current Low Packers -7 -110
Over/Under 43.5-44 -110
The N.Y. Giants are not playing giant football, but they aren't without merit either. They lost to a much better team in their Home opener to The Philadelphia Eagles, and The Eagles covered. They walked on the field an underdog to The Washington Redskins and won. Then did exactly what they were supposed to do in beating The Cleveland Browns, covering the spread in the process. Now the face off against The Packers. Boy, oh boy, I don't like this one. The Giants are hurting at nearly every position, and their lack of depth due to this means that any injury during this game is going to have an impact. The most susceptible point being in the secondary. With the injury reserved list in all likelihood getting the name Shaun Williams (Strong Safety) added another strike there could be the proverbial straw. I have to say that they have played proudly despite these problems but are really going to have their plate full when they hit Lambeau Field. Quarter Back Kurt Warner and crew are going to have to try and follow suit, and do as much damage in the air as they can.
Now we move on to the Packers, who are not fairing much better in their secondary. With CBs Mike McKenzie and Ahmad Carroll both listed as Questionable and the vulnerability that was exposed and exploited by The Colts, they also have the problem of being hurt nearly everywhere else on defense. The rift in the locker room, trade talk about McKenzie and the ailing shoulder of QB Brett Favre all add up to a tough road ahead for The Packs'. Running Back Ahman Green is going to have to step up big for this game. If the Packers can't do a good job of clock management with long drives that keep their desolated defense on the sidelines it mean the first three game losing streak in Mike Sherman's five seasons at the helm.
Enough rambling, let's get to the heart of this, my “pick”. The Packers certainly have the skills to cover 7 points on the offensive side of the ball but can they keep The Giants from lashing right back at them. I think they can. Favre is known for his ability to come big when the chips are down. They are going to be at home, and that is worth more than the standard 3 points in this case. I may actually put a little of my own money on this one.
Bottom line Packers -7 is worthy of a early season small wager. Probably a safer bet, however, is the Over. Particularly if you can get it down around the 43 mark.
Side Notes: Packers are 3-1 ATS in the last three meetings, Giants are 2-5 ATS in last seven Oct. games, Packers are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 overall
Well I ended up writing a lot more than I intended so I'm going to break here and finish with the rest of week 4 tomorrow. My thanks for dropping in and taking a peek.
Wednesday, September 29, 2004
Bronczilla's Take on the Game
Bronczilla, a fellow blogger and Football fan, found my humble little blip on the blog radar worth not only a link but a post as well. A great big shout out to Bronczilla!
On a more serious note, I read his blog regularly. Not only is his writing fun to read, but he has a knowledge of the sport that makes his stuff very informative as well. His take on the Sarigusa/Harrington issue was fantastic, and it was just part of a great post.
If you're a fan of the game do yourself a favor and drop by his site, you won't be disappointed.
Bronczilla, a fellow blogger and Football fan, found my humble little blip on the blog radar worth not only a link but a post as well. A great big shout out to Bronczilla!
On a more serious note, I read his blog regularly. Not only is his writing fun to read, but he has a knowledge of the sport that makes his stuff very informative as well. His take on the Sarigusa/Harrington issue was fantastic, and it was just part of a great post.
If you're a fan of the game do yourself a favor and drop by his site, you won't be disappointed.
NFL Week 4 Schedule and NFL Betting Line
The Cincinnati Bengals(1-2) at The Pittsburgh Steelers(2-1)
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Cincinnati Bengals +3.5 -110
Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 -110
Over/Under 39 -110
The Indianapolis Colts(2-1) at The Jacksonville Jaguars(3-0)
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Indianapolis Colts -3.5 -110
Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 -110
Over/Under 42 -110
The New England Patriots(2-0) at The Buffalo Bills(0-2)
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
New England Patriots -5.5 -110
Buffalo Bills +5.5 -110
Over/Under 35.5 -110
The N.Y. Giants(2-1) at The Green Bay Packers(1-2)
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
N.Y. Giants +7 -110
Green Bay Packers -7 -110
Over/Under 44 -110
The Oakland Raiders(2-1) at The Houston Texans(1-2)
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Oakland Raiders -2 -110
Houston Texans +2 -110
Over/Under 42.5 -110
The Philadelphia Eagles(3-0) at The Chicago Bears(1-2)
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Philadelphia Eagles -8.5 -110
Chicago Bears +8.5 -110
Over/Under 41 -110
The Washington Redskins(1-2) at The Cleveland Browns(1-2)
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Washington Redskins -3 -110
Cleveland Browns +3 -110
Over/Under 36 -110
The Atlanta Falcons(3-0) at The Carolina Panthers(1-1)
Sunday 4:05 PM ET
Atlanta Falcons +3.5 -110
Carolina Panthers -3.5 -110
Over/Under 40 -110
The New Orleans Saints(2-1) at The Arizona Cardinals(0-3)
Sunday 4:05 PM ET
New Orleans Saints -3 -110
Arizona Cardinals +3 -110
Over/Under 40.5 -110
The Denver Broncos(2-1) at The Tampa Bay Buccaneers(0-3)
Sunday 4:15 PM ET
Denver Broncos -3 -110
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 -110
Over/Under 36 -110
The N.Y. Jets(2-0) at The Miami Dolphins(0-3)
Sunday 4:15 PM ET
N.Y. Jets -5 -110
Miami Dolphins +5 -110
Over/Under 36 -110
The Tennessee Titans(1-2) at The San Diego Chargers(1-2)
Sunday 4:15 PM ET
OTB(Off The Board) at most Online Sportsbooks
Tennessee Titans -3 -110
San Diego Chargers +3 -110
Over/Under 41 -110
The St. Louis Rams(1-2) at The San Francisco 49ers(0-3)
Sunday 8:30 PM ET
St. Louis Rams -3.5 -110
San Francisco 49ers +3.5 -110
Over/Under 44 -110
The Kansas City Chiefs(0-3) at The Baltimore Ravens(2-1)
Monday 9:00 PM ET
Kansas City Chiefs +4.5 -110
Baltimore Ravens -4.5 -110
Over/Under 41.5 -110
The Cincinnati Bengals(1-2) at The Pittsburgh Steelers(2-1)
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Cincinnati Bengals +3.5 -110
Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 -110
Over/Under 39 -110
The Indianapolis Colts(2-1) at The Jacksonville Jaguars(3-0)
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Indianapolis Colts -3.5 -110
Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 -110
Over/Under 42 -110
The New England Patriots(2-0) at The Buffalo Bills(0-2)
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
New England Patriots -5.5 -110
Buffalo Bills +5.5 -110
Over/Under 35.5 -110
The N.Y. Giants(2-1) at The Green Bay Packers(1-2)
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
N.Y. Giants +7 -110
Green Bay Packers -7 -110
Over/Under 44 -110
The Oakland Raiders(2-1) at The Houston Texans(1-2)
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Oakland Raiders -2 -110
Houston Texans +2 -110
Over/Under 42.5 -110
The Philadelphia Eagles(3-0) at The Chicago Bears(1-2)
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Philadelphia Eagles -8.5 -110
Chicago Bears +8.5 -110
Over/Under 41 -110
The Washington Redskins(1-2) at The Cleveland Browns(1-2)
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Washington Redskins -3 -110
Cleveland Browns +3 -110
Over/Under 36 -110
The Atlanta Falcons(3-0) at The Carolina Panthers(1-1)
Sunday 4:05 PM ET
Atlanta Falcons +3.5 -110
Carolina Panthers -3.5 -110
Over/Under 40 -110
The New Orleans Saints(2-1) at The Arizona Cardinals(0-3)
Sunday 4:05 PM ET
New Orleans Saints -3 -110
Arizona Cardinals +3 -110
Over/Under 40.5 -110
The Denver Broncos(2-1) at The Tampa Bay Buccaneers(0-3)
Sunday 4:15 PM ET
Denver Broncos -3 -110
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 -110
Over/Under 36 -110
The N.Y. Jets(2-0) at The Miami Dolphins(0-3)
Sunday 4:15 PM ET
N.Y. Jets -5 -110
Miami Dolphins +5 -110
Over/Under 36 -110
The Tennessee Titans(1-2) at The San Diego Chargers(1-2)
Sunday 4:15 PM ET
OTB(Off The Board) at most Online Sportsbooks
Tennessee Titans -3 -110
San Diego Chargers +3 -110
Over/Under 41 -110
The St. Louis Rams(1-2) at The San Francisco 49ers(0-3)
Sunday 8:30 PM ET
St. Louis Rams -3.5 -110
San Francisco 49ers +3.5 -110
Over/Under 44 -110
The Kansas City Chiefs(0-3) at The Baltimore Ravens(2-1)
Monday 9:00 PM ET
Kansas City Chiefs +4.5 -110
Baltimore Ravens -4.5 -110
Over/Under 41.5 -110
NFL Against The Spread, and the Salary Cap
”My mailman likes me a lot.”
Seahawks', QB Matt Hasselbeck
Geeze Louise, did I ever take a pounding in week 3. Thank goodness no one actually reads this!
I broke my Cardinal Rule of NFL Handicapping and placed money on games way earlier than I normally would. Over the last four years, with the exception of some very select games, I have not started betting until at least week 6. Why?
Because there simply isn't enough information on the teams to make valid bets. That being said, for the first week of the blog I put my money on the games that I picked as my top five and well you know the rest of the story.
To backtrack just a bit, I said there isn't enough information. At first read this may sound like non-sense, but it is a fact.
Since the Salary Cap was instituted in 1998 the much heard phrase “League Parity” has been thrown around like a, well, worn-out pigskin. So much so that most of us have really missed what it truly means or meant. There are those that would have you believe that it was pure economics and the desire to minimize or rather avoid what has happened to the MLB.
Others would have you believe that it's roots were to be found in the small market team owners’ wanting a fair chance to put a competitive team on the field and compete with pre-salary-cap-era, spend-happy teams like the Dallas Cowboys or 49ers. This just didn’t happen prior to the institution of the salary cap due to lack of revenue.
But, while both of these do hold some truth, they are by no means the whole truth or even the majority of the reasoning behind The Salary Cap.
It's PARITY. It's about TV ratings points. It’s marketing. In a nutshell, it's about the dollar signs, the bling bling, the Cadillac Escalade with 20” spinners.
Why schedule four or five major games a year that everyone knows are going to be great gridiron battles when you can “level” the playing field and get 12, 14, or 16 of these games? That's exactly what the Salary Cap (from now on to be known as The Devil) has done.
So now we have we have four television stations getting into the action (ABC, CBS, FOX and ESPN). And what does that mean, boys and girls? It means billions of dollars to line the NFL team owners’ pockets.
When was the last time you heard about an NFL team losing money? It was pre-salary cap, that’s for sure.
We now have “classic rivalries” that, as a 25 year veteran of NFL fandom, I certainly didn't know as rivalries. Every week there is a “classic rivalry”. What does that equal up to? It's an easy one, c'mon, you can get this one... That's right, Money!
But what is the cost? A lot of you will argue that it has made it more interesting to watch the games. That teams that never would have stood a chance of getting into the playoffs are getting in. Well my question to you is this, does an 8-8 team REALLY deserve to be in the playoffs? Does this seem like fun football? Don't at least some of you miss hating (or loving) that one dynasty team?
As a kid I Loved the “Steel Curtain” of the Pittsburgh Steelers, in the '80's I Hated the “West Coast Offense” and the steam rolling San Francisco 49ers'. And finally in the Nineties, I couldn't wait to cheer against whatever underdog was playing Aikman, Smith, and Irvin of the Dallas Cowboys. With the exception of The Steelers, I LOVED having these teams to root against. I miss them. I miss what they brought to the game. But most of all I miss that feeling that I got when one of them was upset and actually beaten by a 12 point underdog. Those days are gone. They will never return, period.
But it's not just The Devil that caused this. There is also the draft system that awards the top picks to the worst teams. And lastly and in my opinion, least of all, free agency. I say least of all because if The Devil didn't exist this wouldn't be as much a bother.
And as if that wasn't bad enough it has taken what should be the ultimate NFL Fan Fantasy of owning your own NFL Team and turned it into a measure of black and red on some four-eyed (I'm glasses wearing programmer, so no offense meant) accountant’s spreadsheets. It's slowing deteriorating into a game of profits and expenses when it should be all about wins and losses. I mean who cares about wins and losses when the DGR is equally divided amongst all 32 teams. Let me digress for a moment and explain The Devil...
The Devil is determined through a complicated calculation system. The Devil is based on income that the teams earn during a League Year. A percentage of that income, termed Defined Gross Revenues (DGR), is allocated for player expenditures. The DGR is based on ticket sales, merchandise sales, and broadcasts. The DGR is divided equally amongst all 32 teams.
For all of you nerds out there (like me who wanted to understand the calculation), here is the actual mathematical calculation:
Projected DGR x Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) Percentage = Players Share DGR
Players Share minus Projected League wide Benefits =
Amount Available for Player Salaries
Amount Available for Player Salaries / Number of Teams =
Unadjusted Salary Cap per Team
Wow! And I thought this was football. But apparently it's not. It's about advertising, merchandising, broadcasting, and put bluntly, dollars and cents. And we all thought it was a game, played on a field, with a ball and twenty two players grinding it out for a victory.
Now I can hear you askingyourselves yourself, “What has this got to do with your picks, not betting until week 6 or later, or anything else about Gambling on the NFL?”. Well my loyal readers reader, I'll tell you. The teams change drastically every single season. Therefore the statistics from previous seasons, for the most part, mean Jack Diddly this season. So you have to gut out the beginning of the year until you have valid numbers to properly evaluate the match-ups.
Now, if you are anything like me, you hate to watch a Sunday go by without getting a little action in on the games. I feel your pain, I really do. But I seriously advise that you at least keep your bets to a minimum amount and always look closer at the Over/Under at this point in the season. You will have greater success betting Over/Under right now than playing what amounts to roulette with the point spread.
"The dynasties have gone the way of the dinosaurs, you'll never see it again. ... The system has changed to preclude that."
Art Modell, former Baltimore Ravens' Owner
”My mailman likes me a lot.”
Seahawks', QB Matt Hasselbeck
Geeze Louise, did I ever take a pounding in week 3. Thank goodness no one actually reads this!
I broke my Cardinal Rule of NFL Handicapping and placed money on games way earlier than I normally would. Over the last four years, with the exception of some very select games, I have not started betting until at least week 6. Why?
Because there simply isn't enough information on the teams to make valid bets. That being said, for the first week of the blog I put my money on the games that I picked as my top five and well you know the rest of the story.
To backtrack just a bit, I said there isn't enough information. At first read this may sound like non-sense, but it is a fact.
Since the Salary Cap was instituted in 1998 the much heard phrase “League Parity” has been thrown around like a, well, worn-out pigskin. So much so that most of us have really missed what it truly means or meant. There are those that would have you believe that it was pure economics and the desire to minimize or rather avoid what has happened to the MLB.
Others would have you believe that it's roots were to be found in the small market team owners’ wanting a fair chance to put a competitive team on the field and compete with pre-salary-cap-era, spend-happy teams like the Dallas Cowboys or 49ers. This just didn’t happen prior to the institution of the salary cap due to lack of revenue.
But, while both of these do hold some truth, they are by no means the whole truth or even the majority of the reasoning behind The Salary Cap.
It's PARITY. It's about TV ratings points. It’s marketing. In a nutshell, it's about the dollar signs, the bling bling, the Cadillac Escalade with 20” spinners.
Why schedule four or five major games a year that everyone knows are going to be great gridiron battles when you can “level” the playing field and get 12, 14, or 16 of these games? That's exactly what the Salary Cap (from now on to be known as The Devil) has done.
So now we have we have four television stations getting into the action (ABC, CBS, FOX and ESPN). And what does that mean, boys and girls? It means billions of dollars to line the NFL team owners’ pockets.
When was the last time you heard about an NFL team losing money? It was pre-salary cap, that’s for sure.
We now have “classic rivalries” that, as a 25 year veteran of NFL fandom, I certainly didn't know as rivalries. Every week there is a “classic rivalry”. What does that equal up to? It's an easy one, c'mon, you can get this one... That's right, Money!
But what is the cost? A lot of you will argue that it has made it more interesting to watch the games. That teams that never would have stood a chance of getting into the playoffs are getting in. Well my question to you is this, does an 8-8 team REALLY deserve to be in the playoffs? Does this seem like fun football? Don't at least some of you miss hating (or loving) that one dynasty team?
As a kid I Loved the “Steel Curtain” of the Pittsburgh Steelers, in the '80's I Hated the “West Coast Offense” and the steam rolling San Francisco 49ers'. And finally in the Nineties, I couldn't wait to cheer against whatever underdog was playing Aikman, Smith, and Irvin of the Dallas Cowboys. With the exception of The Steelers, I LOVED having these teams to root against. I miss them. I miss what they brought to the game. But most of all I miss that feeling that I got when one of them was upset and actually beaten by a 12 point underdog. Those days are gone. They will never return, period.
But it's not just The Devil that caused this. There is also the draft system that awards the top picks to the worst teams. And lastly and in my opinion, least of all, free agency. I say least of all because if The Devil didn't exist this wouldn't be as much a bother.
And as if that wasn't bad enough it has taken what should be the ultimate NFL Fan Fantasy of owning your own NFL Team and turned it into a measure of black and red on some four-eyed (I'm glasses wearing programmer, so no offense meant) accountant’s spreadsheets. It's slowing deteriorating into a game of profits and expenses when it should be all about wins and losses. I mean who cares about wins and losses when the DGR is equally divided amongst all 32 teams. Let me digress for a moment and explain The Devil...
The Devil is determined through a complicated calculation system. The Devil is based on income that the teams earn during a League Year. A percentage of that income, termed Defined Gross Revenues (DGR), is allocated for player expenditures. The DGR is based on ticket sales, merchandise sales, and broadcasts. The DGR is divided equally amongst all 32 teams.
For all of you nerds out there (like me who wanted to understand the calculation), here is the actual mathematical calculation:
Projected DGR x Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) Percentage = Players Share DGR
Players Share minus Projected League wide Benefits =
Amount Available for Player Salaries
Amount Available for Player Salaries / Number of Teams =
Unadjusted Salary Cap per Team
Wow! And I thought this was football. But apparently it's not. It's about advertising, merchandising, broadcasting, and put bluntly, dollars and cents. And we all thought it was a game, played on a field, with a ball and twenty two players grinding it out for a victory.
Now I can hear you asking
Now, if you are anything like me, you hate to watch a Sunday go by without getting a little action in on the games. I feel your pain, I really do. But I seriously advise that you at least keep your bets to a minimum amount and always look closer at the Over/Under at this point in the season. You will have greater success betting Over/Under right now than playing what amounts to roulette with the point spread.
"The dynasties have gone the way of the dinosaurs, you'll never see it again. ... The system has changed to preclude that."
Art Modell, former Baltimore Ravens' Owner
Sunday, September 26, 2004
Injury Update! Bad News For The Packers
...and for me and my BIG bet of the week. Mike Sherman announced today the Corner Backs Mike McKenzie and Ahmad Carroll will NOT be playing in todays game against The Colts. Additionally CB Michael Hawthorne will be playing injured.
Hawthorne and Carroll collided trying to break up a pass in practice on Friday, causing the Sidelining of the esteemed rookie Carroll, while McKenzie tweaked his hamy during said practice.
The loss of McKenzie may not be as disastrous as the loss of Carroll and the injury of Hawthorne in this bettor's opinion. They started their first two without him due to his holdout, but the loss of Carroll and the injury to Hawthorne is. Even without McKenzie they have stood middle of the pack against the pass (15th) but that was with Carroll and a healthy Hawthorne.
Does this mean they get crushed? I still don't think so, but it does make the Over (48.5) maybe a little bit more tasty. I'm not making the bet however, and if you have not yet laid money on the Packers, and were thinking about it, re-think it.
Starting Sunday off the wrong way...
...and for me and my BIG bet of the week. Mike Sherman announced today the Corner Backs Mike McKenzie and Ahmad Carroll will NOT be playing in todays game against The Colts. Additionally CB Michael Hawthorne will be playing injured.
Hawthorne and Carroll collided trying to break up a pass in practice on Friday, causing the Sidelining of the esteemed rookie Carroll, while McKenzie tweaked his hamy during said practice.
The loss of McKenzie may not be as disastrous as the loss of Carroll and the injury of Hawthorne in this bettor's opinion. They started their first two without him due to his holdout, but the loss of Carroll and the injury to Hawthorne is. Even without McKenzie they have stood middle of the pack against the pass (15th) but that was with Carroll and a healthy Hawthorne.
Does this mean they get crushed? I still don't think so, but it does make the Over (48.5) maybe a little bit more tasty. I'm not making the bet however, and if you have not yet laid money on the Packers, and were thinking about it, re-think it.
Starting Sunday off the wrong way...
Saturday, September 25, 2004
NFL Pick of the Week
Rather than doing the usually and laying out my picks on every NFL game this week, I'm going to start with the games that I am actually betting on. For my complete evaluations on this weeks games please see NFL Against The Spread and NFL Against The Spread. Part Two
1).Atlanta -10 – This goes against the grain, but I believe in it enough that I have my hard earned cash on The Atlanta Falcons.
2).Green Bay +6.5 – I liked this game from day one and made this my BIG (if there is such a thing this early in the season) bet of the week. I just don't see The Green Bay Packers losing by that big a margin.
3).Houston +7.5 – I think that I'm pretty much in line with common thinking with this pick. The Kansas City Chiefs just don't have anything to bring to the field.
4).Minnesota -9.5 – Again I am swimming against the tide with this pick. Despite Rex Grossman and crews prediction that they will be able to run Thomas Jones and control the clock, I think that the missing piece here is the fact that they are going up against the 5th ranked rushing defense. I like Grossman and I like Jones, but that ain't enough.
5).Seattle Seahawks Over 43.5 – I stated in my earlier post (NFL Against The Spread. Part Two) I don't like this game against the spread. The Seahawks could cover, but that's a lot of points. Even though The 49ers are not very good I have not seen enough of now starting QB Ken Dorsey to put my money against him. But I have upgraded my opinion of the Over to being one worth me making a small wager on.
Still to come... Monday Night Football!
Rather than doing the usually and laying out my picks on every NFL game this week, I'm going to start with the games that I am actually betting on. For my complete evaluations on this weeks games please see NFL Against The Spread and NFL Against The Spread. Part Two
1).Atlanta -10 – This goes against the grain, but I believe in it enough that I have my hard earned cash on The Atlanta Falcons.
2).Green Bay +6.5 – I liked this game from day one and made this my BIG (if there is such a thing this early in the season) bet of the week. I just don't see The Green Bay Packers losing by that big a margin.
3).Houston +7.5 – I think that I'm pretty much in line with common thinking with this pick. The Kansas City Chiefs just don't have anything to bring to the field.
4).Minnesota -9.5 – Again I am swimming against the tide with this pick. Despite Rex Grossman and crews prediction that they will be able to run Thomas Jones and control the clock, I think that the missing piece here is the fact that they are going up against the 5th ranked rushing defense. I like Grossman and I like Jones, but that ain't enough.
5).Seattle Seahawks Over 43.5 – I stated in my earlier post (NFL Against The Spread. Part Two) I don't like this game against the spread. The Seahawks could cover, but that's a lot of points. Even though The 49ers are not very good I have not seen enough of now starting QB Ken Dorsey to put my money against him. But I have upgraded my opinion of the Over to being one worth me making a small wager on.
Still to come... Monday Night Football!
Chicago Bears Troubles Continue
The already decimated defense of The Bears just got worse. Middle linebacker Brian Urlacher has aggravated his right hamstring. The injury kept him out of all but an hour of practice on Friday.
According to Head Coach Lovie Smith Urlacher is a 50-50 to play tomorrow against The Vikings. This makes me think that my evaluation of this game and taking The Viking -9 more then just "not a stretch..."
The already decimated defense of The Bears just got worse. Middle linebacker Brian Urlacher has aggravated his right hamstring. The injury kept him out of all but an hour of practice on Friday.
According to Head Coach Lovie Smith Urlacher is a 50-50 to play tomorrow against The Vikings. This makes me think that my evaluation of this game and taking The Viking -9 more then just "not a stretch..."
Friday, September 24, 2004
NFL Against The Spread. Part Two
San Diego(1-1) at Denver(1-1) Denver -10. Return
I hate to start this with another “man this is a tough one to call”, but that's exactly what it is, a tough call. Let's begin with LaDainian Tomlinson who is bothered by a jammed big toe. He claims that it is NOT the “turf toe” we hear about so often but rather a simple jam in the upper part of his toe. That said, keep in mind that he pulled himself out for several plays during their loss to the Jets. It was late in the game and that might be a sign that fatigue adds to it being a bother. Added to that mix is quarterback Drew Brees who we all know has issues. Still, he has guided The Chargers to an average score ranking of 3rd, tied with the likes of The Indianapolis Colts and The Atlanta Falcons.
Denver's Quentin Griffin went off on Kansas City's weak defense in week 1, but was limited to only 66 yards on 25 carries against Jacksonville. But we are talking about the Chargers defense (ranked 24th overall; 17th against the rush 26th against the pass), not the Jaguars. Even with a 7th ranked offense the Broncos have not put big numbers on the score board. In a nutshell I think this game is better left alone, but if a gun was put to my head... I would have to take a bullet. Seriously though, I think that the weak link in this is Jake Plummer's question marks behind the gun, The Chargers +10.
Side Notes: Broncos are 1-3 against the spread (ATS) in their last four overall.
San Francisco(0-2) at Seattle(2-0), Seattle -10.5. Return
Whew, that's a big favorite... when was the last time that The Seahawks came into a game favored by those kind of numbers? Ok, don't answer that. The Seahawks with Mike Holmgren at the helm just keep getting better and better. Although Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is still going through some growing pains he's smart and does have some real weapons at his disposal in Wide Receivers Darrell Jackson and Koren Robinson. But the game still rests squarely on the shoulders of Running Back Shaun Alexander. Did I mention that's a big spread.
Now looking at The 49ers they are really banged up. Injuries are too long to list and are on both sides of the ball. Quarterback Ken Dorsey will be starting and is an unknown commodity at best, and has very little to work with. Although I really like the Seahawks I don't like this game against the spread. If some action on this one is what you want, look at taking the Over at 43.5 and cheer at every score.
Side Notes: Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings, Over is 5-2 in 49ers last seven overall.
Green Bay(1-1) at Indianapolis(1-1), Indianapolis -6.5. Return
I've really been looking forward to writing about this one. Add two explosive offenses, plus two fantastic quarterbacks, and you get a whole lotta fun to watch. I mean this should be a great one! The Packers led by quarterback Brett Favre are coming off a hard loss at home against The Chicago Bears, while The Colts with the dynamic Payton Manning guiding them, took out The Tennessee Titans in Tennessee.
I see big plays and big numbers written all over this one. Even with the injuries on both teams this is not going to be an defensive slug fest.
Despite the hamstring problem with running back Edgerrin James, he will probably get some play time and combined with Dominick Rhodes they will be able to wear down the front four enough for Manning to set up the play action, and we all know what he does when that happens.
With The Packers, you have the obvious, multi-talented running back Ahman Green setting up Favre for the rollouts and bootlegs, with his counter plays. Both teams have offensive linemen that are solid pass protectors and run blockers, so both quarterbacks are going to be able to do what they do best, throw the ball. Folks this one is going to be the afternoon game that will keep your eyes glued to the set and your butt planted in the chair. It's going to be a shootout, boy's. This is another game that I will be logging into my favorite online casino and getting a little action on. In fact I might even go two ways with this one. The Packers + 6.5 and the Over at 48.5. At the very least I love The Packers with the points.
Side Notes: Packers are 8-3 against the spread (ATS) in their last 11 overall, and 7-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last nine as a dog.
Tampa Bay(0-2) at Oakland(1-1), Oakland -3. Return
What can I really say about this match-up. This one IS going to be a defensive slug fest. The Raiders land on the field with the 4th ranked overall defense, and The Buccaneers step out on the grass just one notch above with the 3rd ranked overall defense. Offensively The Raiders sit just below the middle of the pack at 18th overall, while the anemic Buccaneers offense stands at a dismal 30th. If you're a fan of either of these teams and just need a reason to watch, or a football junkie who will watch whatever he (or she) can get and HAVE to have a reason to watch then my advice would be to start drinking early and heavy and with a little luck you'll be too drunk to wager on this game at all. But if that fails, do yourself a favor and take the Under at 34.5 and make it a small bet.
Side Notes: Why Bother.
Well your fedora adorned writer is signing off for the night. I'll be back tomorrow to right any wrongs, and give you myhumble opinion on The Monday Night Football Game. Until then, keep on keepin' on!
San Diego(1-1) at Denver(1-1) Denver -10. Return
I hate to start this with another “man this is a tough one to call”, but that's exactly what it is, a tough call. Let's begin with LaDainian Tomlinson who is bothered by a jammed big toe. He claims that it is NOT the “turf toe” we hear about so often but rather a simple jam in the upper part of his toe. That said, keep in mind that he pulled himself out for several plays during their loss to the Jets. It was late in the game and that might be a sign that fatigue adds to it being a bother. Added to that mix is quarterback Drew Brees who we all know has issues. Still, he has guided The Chargers to an average score ranking of 3rd, tied with the likes of The Indianapolis Colts and The Atlanta Falcons.
Denver's Quentin Griffin went off on Kansas City's weak defense in week 1, but was limited to only 66 yards on 25 carries against Jacksonville. But we are talking about the Chargers defense (ranked 24th overall; 17th against the rush 26th against the pass), not the Jaguars. Even with a 7th ranked offense the Broncos have not put big numbers on the score board. In a nutshell I think this game is better left alone, but if a gun was put to my head... I would have to take a bullet. Seriously though, I think that the weak link in this is Jake Plummer's question marks behind the gun, The Chargers +10.
Side Notes: Broncos are 1-3 against the spread (ATS) in their last four overall.
San Francisco(0-2) at Seattle(2-0), Seattle -10.5. Return
Whew, that's a big favorite... when was the last time that The Seahawks came into a game favored by those kind of numbers? Ok, don't answer that. The Seahawks with Mike Holmgren at the helm just keep getting better and better. Although Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is still going through some growing pains he's smart and does have some real weapons at his disposal in Wide Receivers Darrell Jackson and Koren Robinson. But the game still rests squarely on the shoulders of Running Back Shaun Alexander. Did I mention that's a big spread.
Now looking at The 49ers they are really banged up. Injuries are too long to list and are on both sides of the ball. Quarterback Ken Dorsey will be starting and is an unknown commodity at best, and has very little to work with. Although I really like the Seahawks I don't like this game against the spread. If some action on this one is what you want, look at taking the Over at 43.5 and cheer at every score.
Side Notes: Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings, Over is 5-2 in 49ers last seven overall.
Green Bay(1-1) at Indianapolis(1-1), Indianapolis -6.5. Return
I've really been looking forward to writing about this one. Add two explosive offenses, plus two fantastic quarterbacks, and you get a whole lotta fun to watch. I mean this should be a great one! The Packers led by quarterback Brett Favre are coming off a hard loss at home against The Chicago Bears, while The Colts with the dynamic Payton Manning guiding them, took out The Tennessee Titans in Tennessee.
I see big plays and big numbers written all over this one. Even with the injuries on both teams this is not going to be an defensive slug fest.
Despite the hamstring problem with running back Edgerrin James, he will probably get some play time and combined with Dominick Rhodes they will be able to wear down the front four enough for Manning to set up the play action, and we all know what he does when that happens.
With The Packers, you have the obvious, multi-talented running back Ahman Green setting up Favre for the rollouts and bootlegs, with his counter plays. Both teams have offensive linemen that are solid pass protectors and run blockers, so both quarterbacks are going to be able to do what they do best, throw the ball. Folks this one is going to be the afternoon game that will keep your eyes glued to the set and your butt planted in the chair. It's going to be a shootout, boy's. This is another game that I will be logging into my favorite online casino and getting a little action on. In fact I might even go two ways with this one. The Packers + 6.5 and the Over at 48.5. At the very least I love The Packers with the points.
Side Notes: Packers are 8-3 against the spread (ATS) in their last 11 overall, and 7-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last nine as a dog.
Tampa Bay(0-2) at Oakland(1-1), Oakland -3. Return
What can I really say about this match-up. This one IS going to be a defensive slug fest. The Raiders land on the field with the 4th ranked overall defense, and The Buccaneers step out on the grass just one notch above with the 3rd ranked overall defense. Offensively The Raiders sit just below the middle of the pack at 18th overall, while the anemic Buccaneers offense stands at a dismal 30th. If you're a fan of either of these teams and just need a reason to watch, or a football junkie who will watch whatever he (or she) can get and HAVE to have a reason to watch then my advice would be to start drinking early and heavy and with a little luck you'll be too drunk to wager on this game at all. But if that fails, do yourself a favor and take the Under at 34.5 and make it a small bet.
Side Notes: Why Bother.
Well your fedora adorned writer is signing off for the night. I'll be back tomorrow to right any wrongs, and give you my
NFL Meets Online Poker Or How I spent last-night.
I know myreaders READER are IS anxiously awaiting my next post with my analysis of the afternoon games. I, however, am going to deviate from the norm and talk about something completely different, Poker!
I have been playing poker online at Party Poker with Iggy for several years now and doing well at the lower limits. Iggy as of late has been relentlessly urging me to move up (considerably) to higher limits, claiming that it was just as fishy. Well last night I did. I made the move and he was dead right. I will say that it did take about an orbit for me to get my wits about me, being a rather tight-aggressive player I did have the mental aspect of the move up to overcome. I don't like playing scared, in fact I like to be the pusher rather than the pushy (no pun intended).
But in any case Iggy was dead on. They were every bit as aggressive pre-flop, maybe even a little more so, as at the lower limit tables. I sat back waiting for the right places to stick my head in and finished the night a bit richer.
Just want to say to Iggy, Right On!
I know my
I have been playing poker online at Party Poker with Iggy for several years now and doing well at the lower limits. Iggy as of late has been relentlessly urging me to move up (considerably) to higher limits, claiming that it was just as fishy. Well last night I did. I made the move and he was dead right. I will say that it did take about an orbit for me to get my wits about me, being a rather tight-aggressive player I did have the mental aspect of the move up to overcome. I don't like playing scared, in fact I like to be the pusher rather than the pushy (no pun intended).
But in any case Iggy was dead on. They were every bit as aggressive pre-flop, maybe even a little more so, as at the lower limit tables. I sat back waiting for the right places to stick my head in and finished the night a bit richer.
Just want to say to Iggy, Right On!
Thursday, September 23, 2004
NFL Against the Spread
Houston(0-2) at Kansas City(0-2), Kansas City Chiefs –7.5. Return
Where do I even begin with this one? Well Let’s start with the obvious, Priest Holmes is listed as questionable for Sundays game. Now if I know Dick (I don’t, but let’s let me think I do) he will be ultra careful with Holmes this early in the season. Now take into account that Houston has SOME offense and that without Holmes KC has, well, NONE. I really like Houston +7.5-8. Keep in mind that they only lost by 7 to a pretty decent offense in the San Diego Chargers last week and The Chiefs defense is ranked 27th overall. I wouldn’t bet the bank (it’s just to early in the season for big bets) but this gambler's going to his favorite Online Casino for a NFL betting on this one.
Side Note: Houston is 10-3 Against The Spread (ATS) last 13 after two or more loses.
Jacksonville(2-0) at Tennessee(1-1), Tennessee –5.5. Return
This is going to be a tight, hard fought game. They both have injuries that are going to affect the game, but I think that they are “off-setting” (no pun intended). I don't think that I would put a wager on the spread for either team but I must say that if you're going to do a little NFL betting on this one, taking the under at 36 points is definitely not out of the question.
Side Notes: Under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings, Under is 8-1 in JAX's last nine games overall, Under is 5-1 in Titans last six played in Sept.
New Orleans(1-1) at St. Louis(1-1), St. Louis -7. Return
What can I say about this one. St. Louis Sucks, period. They have only covered the spread 3 times in their last 10 games and not even come close in their first 2 this season. Marc Bulger looks worse every time he steps out on the field and Marshall Faulk is in his twilight years( wink wink) New Orleans on the other hand looks to be improving, with a come from behind win against San Fransisco last week after losing The Duce, I have hopes for them yet. That being said I would caution against this game, just too many variables. But if you have to have NFL betting action, take New Orleans with the points.
Side Notes: Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings, Over is 10-4 in the Rams last 14 overall, NO is 1-6 ATS in the last seven played in Sept.
Philadelphia(2-0) at Detroit(2-0), Detroit +4.5. Return
Now this one is trouble! We all know what The Eagles can do offensively with weapons like Donovan McNabb, Terrell Owens, L.J. Smith and Brian Westbrook (combined for nearly 150yds.). But they also proved what a dynamite packed defense they have with their showing against Daunte, Moss and crew of number two ranked offense of the Minnesota Vikings. Now on to the Detroit Lions (are they roaring for real?), Quarterback Joey Harrington is the number 9th ranked QB with a passer rating of 93.8. That ain't not bad. Plus he showed no signs of giving up when Charles Rogers went down (again) with broken collarbone, immediately finding a home for the pigskin in the awaiting arms of rookie Wide Receiver Roy Williams (I love this guy) Hitting him four times for 73 yards and two strikes in the end-zone that Williams made look easy.
That being said they played the Houston Texans, 10th ranked offense, the Eagles are not a 10th ranked offense...the Lions are on a roll and have momentum, but so do the Eagles and although I think this is going to be a great game to watch, I don't think that Detroit can overcome their losses on the defensive side of the ball and come up with a victory. If I were doing any online NFL betting on this one (which I'm not) I would have to go with The Philadelphia Eagles -4.5. The Over Under at 44.5 is a crap shoot at best, wouldn't touch it either way.
Side Notes: PHI are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 overall, Eagles have won the last three meetings ATS.
Pittsburgh(1-1) at Miami(0-2), Miami -1. Return
Can you say coin toss. Despite all the injuries (just too damn many to list) and troubles that have plagued The Dolphins they are still a defensive powerhouse when it comes to the passing game. Herein lies the problem, The Dolphins give up an average of 138 yards a game rushing and The Steelers average just over the 100 yard mark. To counter that The Steelers proffer up a measly average of only 192 yards a game against a Dolphins defense that has only allowed an average of 110 yards a game. Did I say coin toss? I know everyone is saying, “hey, what about Ben Roethlisberger? Hey threw for two touchdowns against THE RAVENS!” He's a rookie QB, need I say more. There is light at the end of the tunnel for those that just have to have action on this game...The Over/Under! At 33.5 taking the under in this one is not at all a shabby bet and has me looking at it for a small NFL bet.
Side Notes: Under is 3-0-1 in the last four meeting, Under is 19-9 in MIA's last 28 on grass.
Arizona(0-2) at Atlanta(2-0), Atlanta -10. Return
OK let's take a look here The Cardinals are at the bottom of the heap when it comes to rush defense, albeit they might not have to stop Warrick Dunn (although he is expected to play), but they will have to stop Michael Vick (or is it Mike now), T.J Duckett and the emerging Justin Griffith. And the fact of the matter is they are 30th against the rush, 24th against the pass which puts them at the lowly state of being the 32nd ranked defense overall. And the woes don't stop there, The Cardinals pass ranking is 29th, rush ranking 27th and their overall offense ranking is just one above the bottom, 31st. Now The Falcons on the other hand are slightly below the middle of the pack with an overall defense ranking of 19th and an overall offense ranking of 16th but hidden in there is there rush ranking of...deep breath...number 2. But the Falcons are not without problems, Vick really only has two players to throw the ball to, Peerless Price and Alge Crumpler. That being said, I still see a sound thrashing ahead for the Cardinals. My online NFL betting will be on The Falcons to cover the spread and then some.
Side Notes: ARI is 4-13 ATS in their last 17 on the road, ATL has won the last two meeting against the spread (ATS), ATL is 6-3-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 overall.
Baltimore(1-1) at Cincinnati(1-1), Cincinnati +3. Return
Ok here is were I really can't give much. I'm a Cincinnati Fan and cannot in good conscious give any advice ideas or thoughts without my heart being a real factor in those words. I will say this much, I wouldn't put my money on either of them.
Chicago(1-1) at Minnesota(1-1), Minnesota -9. Return
This could be ugly, with a CB Charles Tillman out as well as Safety Mike Brown (out for season) CB’s Todd McMillon and rookie Nate Vasher must match up against the powerhouse that is the Vikings passing game. This could be a scoring frenzy by Randy Moss and the Vikings
Side Notes: MIN is 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings, MIN is 3-0 ATS in the last three at home.
Well that does it for the early games. I've got to get this fedora off my head, walk away from this terminal and play some video games...:)
I'll be back with the afternoon games and my opinions on them later tonight. I really hope that someone is reading this ;)-
NFL Betting Junkie Ramblings
Can we have some more game changing Player injuries Please
"If you aren't fired with enthusiasm, you'll be fired with enthusiasm."
Vince Lombardi
Well my fedoras firmly fixed in place and I'm now ready go about writing what I have alluded to from the beginning. But first let me take you back for just a bit in time and explain why I'm here in Cincinnati and why all this about online betting.
In 1999 I followed a beautiful young lady some 14 years my Junior back to the Midwest. Now first off, I didn't go purely because of love or the fact that I didn't think that another woman of her looks would ever want a disheveled, poorly dressed, and less than perfectly groomed man such as my self.
But there was also the fact that I HATED Las Vegas. I was either holed up in the house with my buddies drinking and what not or God forgive me, seeking solace from the bells whistles sirens and the constant clatter of coins hitting tin cans, by going to the closest TGIF's simply because there were no slot machines.
I mean I'm really not kidding when I say that we would drop 3, 4, 500 bucks a visit in bar tabs BEFORE going "Out on the town". So it was not the greatest of places for a man with a penchant for the booze a gambling habit...
I know it's cliche but Las Vegas truly does earn the saying, "it's a great place to visit, but you wouldn't want to live there.
So I found myself in Cincinnati, with a beautiful young bride and a starvation for the Sportsbooks and not a Casino with a Sportsbook to be found. How on earth would I feed this demon. I tried finding a booky, but with out very many connections in town that was easier said than done. But then I discovered the Internet once again and found a completely different world. But again I digress...
Coming up next, my veiws on the games this week as well as an injury report that might be worth a read for those NFL Gambling Junkies. It's uber-post time...
Vince Lombardi
Well my fedoras firmly fixed in place and I'm now ready go about writing what I have alluded to from the beginning. But first let me take you back for just a bit in time and explain why I'm here in Cincinnati and why all this about online betting.
In 1999 I followed a beautiful young lady some 14 years my Junior back to the Midwest. Now first off, I didn't go purely because of love or the fact that I didn't think that another woman of her looks would ever want a disheveled, poorly dressed, and less than perfectly groomed man such as my self.
But there was also the fact that I HATED Las Vegas. I was either holed up in the house with my buddies drinking and what not or God forgive me, seeking solace from the bells whistles sirens and the constant clatter of coins hitting tin cans, by going to the closest TGIF's simply because there were no slot machines.
I mean I'm really not kidding when I say that we would drop 3, 4, 500 bucks a visit in bar tabs BEFORE going "Out on the town". So it was not the greatest of places for a man with a penchant for the booze a gambling habit...
I know it's cliche but Las Vegas truly does earn the saying, "it's a great place to visit, but you wouldn't want to live there.
So I found myself in Cincinnati, with a beautiful young bride and a starvation for the Sportsbooks and not a Casino with a Sportsbook to be found. How on earth would I feed this demon. I tried finding a booky, but with out very many connections in town that was easier said than done. But then I discovered the Internet once again and found a completely different world. But again I digress...
Coming up next, my veiws on the games this week as well as an injury report that might be worth a read for those NFL Gambling Junkies. It's uber-post time...
Wednesday, September 22, 2004
| NFL Week 3 Lines and Matchups | |||
| "Guys like Starr and Nitschke and Payton-- you hear those names and you can't help but ask yourself-- do I really belong here?" Barry Sanders, during his induction to the NFL Hall of Fame | |||
| Sunday, Sep 26 | Line | Money Line | Time |
| Houston at Kansas City | 47.5 o/u -102 -7.5 -101 | Off | 1:00 PM ET |
| Jacksonville at Tennessee | 35.5 u 100 -5.5 -109 | Off | 1:00 PM ET |
| New Orleans at St. Louis | 47.5 u -105 -7 102 | Off | 1:00 PM ET |
| Philadelphia at Detroit | 44.5 u -105 +4.5 -107 | Off | 1:00 PM ET |
| Pittsburgh at Miami | 33.5 u -105 -1 -107 | Off | 1:00 PM ET |
| Arizona at Atlanta | 42.5 u -104 -10 101 | Off | 1:00 PM ET |
| Baltimore at Cincinnati | 34.5 u -105 +3 -120 | Off | 1:00 PM ET |
| Chicago at Minnesota | 44 u -111 -9 -102 | Off | 1:00 PM ET |
| Cleveland at New York Giants | 37 u -110 -3 -109 | Off | 1:00 PM ET |
| San Diego at Denver | 47 u 101 -10 -102 | Off | 4:05 PM ET |
| San Francisco at Seattle | 44 u 101 -10.5 -101 | Off | 4:15 PM ET |
| Green Bay at Indianapolis | 48.5 u -110 -6 100 | Off | 4:15 PM ET |
| Tampa Bay at Oakland | 34.5 u -106 -3 -120 | Off | 8:30 PM ET |
| Monday, Sep 27 | Line | Money Line | Time |
| Dallas at Washington | 35.5 u -102 -2 100 | Off | 8:30 PM ET |
|
|||
| Be back shortly with commentary and better formatting, right now my fedora is becoming soaked with sweat as I think about the possibilities for this weeks gambling endeavors...With the injury reports that have come in it keeps looking worse for some teams, Kansas City Chiefs Fans, my heart goes out to you... | |||
Tuesday, September 21, 2004
Top 5 NFL Offense, Defense and ATS
Team
Y/GmRushPass
Dallas Cowboys
432.098.5333.5
Minnesota Vikings
412.5107.0305.5
Indianapolis Colts
409.5165.5244.0
New York Jets
409.0170.5238.5
New England Patriots
389.5127.0262.5
Team
Y/GmRushPass
Washington Redskins
223.046.0177.0
Miami Dolphins
226.5138.088.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
236.5111.0125.5
Oakland Raiders
240.087.0153.0
Denver Broncos
247.0117.0130.0
Team
ATSW/LO/U
Detroit Lions
2-0-02-0-01-1-0
Jacksonville Jaguars
2-0-02-0-00-2-0
New York Jets
2-0-02-0-02-0-0
Philadelphia Eagles
2-0-02-0-01-1-0
Seattle Seahawks
2-0-02-0-00-2-0
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