NFL Against the Spread – Online Betting AFC NFC Title Games
AFC Title Game
NFC Title Game
The New England Patriots (15-2) at The Pittsburgh Steelers (16-1)
Against the Spread: Falcons 8-8-1 | Eagles 10-5-1
Game Time: 6:00 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Patriots -3 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Patriots -3 EVEN
Over/Under 34.5u -105 to -113
The Patriots seem to be to Peyton Manning and the Colts, what Florida was to him in his college days with the Vols. He just can't beat them. Manning didn't make the big mistakes that he did in their last post-season meeting, and the Pat's secondary didn't mug the receivers as was the case a year ago. Yet the outcome was still the same. Manning was kept from throwing a touchdown, and was never able to get into his “zone”.
Despite having a very depleted pass cover squad the Patriots stood their ground against, arguably, the best receiving corp in the NFL today. Even with names like Tyrone Poole, Ty Law and Richard Seymour on the sidelines, the defense was able to hold the extremely explosive Colts offense to very ordinary numbers.
When New England did have the ball, they kept it. Using the powerful legs of RB Corey Dillon to continuously pound on the Colts D line. Then when things were good for it a quick slant, play action or screen had Indy's secondary wondering what was going on. With QB Tom Brady hitting 10 different guys with passes, it was little wonder why. When all was said and done the Pats' had 200+ yards on the ground, 140+ in the air and maintained control of the ball for nearly 40 minutes of play.
The Steelers win was not nearly as impressive. QB Ben Roethlisberger struggled yet again against the Jets. He was 17-30 for about 180 yards, got picked twice and if it wasn't for the RB Jerome Bettis' superb effort and the outstanding job of the defensive squad, Big Ben would have gotten his first loss.
The Pittsburgh D did do an outstanding job and Bettis did have another superb game and the end result was another win for Roethlisberger and the Steelers. Pittsburgh gained almost 200 yards on the ground and kept the ball better than half the game. This enabled the D to stay somewhat fresh and keep them out of harms way in OT. The 1-10 holding penalty against Becht didn't help the Jets cause any.
But did the Steelers win this game or did the Jets lose it? From the sidline perspective it seemed the latter was more true than the former. An interception returned for a touchdown by SS Troy Polamalu gave the Steelers an early 10-0 lead.
The Jets D did their job late, rattling Roethlisberger, and getting an interception with just 1:58 left in regulation. Then, with the game knotted up at 17 each, K Doug Brien missed two field goal attempts (47 and 43 yards), the second set up by that INT, that could have ended the day for the Steelers.
The key here was the fact that Big Ben showed his rookie side again. He was pressured and made mistakes that could/should have cost Pittsburgh the win. That happens against a team with the skill level of the Patriots and it could be the end of the road for the Steelers.
It is without saying that the Patriots have the advantage going into this game. They have been here before and know what the deal is. They have a running game that they have not had in the past, and that is proving to be an outstanding asset to them. Tom Brady may not be the best QB out there, but he is level headed and for the most part, makes good on field decisions. He has a fantastic receiving group to go to when he needs/wants to throw the ball, but with the addition of Dillon to the roster, is no longer in a situation where he has to rely on the passing game for drives to be sustained.
Romeo Crennel has done an incredible job of rebuilding a secondary that was as good as gone, and making them into something that is a bother to offenses. Bill Belichick's constant scheming always has opponents trying to second guess the defense, even when they don't come out with different looks.
All in all, it should be a tight game with two good D's on the field as well as good coaching on both sidelines. But in the end, the experience of the Patriots in conjunction with the talent that they have should give them the victory.
My Online Betting Action: The Patriots -3
Sunday, January 23, 2005
Saturday, January 22, 2005
NFL Against the Spread – Online Betting AFC NFC Title Games
First my sincerest apologies to my loyalreaders reader for my disappearing act over the last 2 weeks. “Real Life” reared it's ugly, and rather obtuse, head leaving me with little to no extra time (not even for sleep). I actually missed action on last weekends games, something that I rarely do...
But, I have returned and further promise to never let it happen again. In an attempt to win back the hearts of those who have put up with my long winded ramblings all season, I will have a special, “Not Safe For Work” Anna pic posted following this match-up analysis. This will be one that I would not have shared but for my deplorable actions over the last couple of weeks.
Now on to the only reason you are still reading...
NFL NFC Title Game
The Atlanta Falcons (12-5) at The Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
Against the Spread: Falcons 8-8-1 | Eagles 10-5-1
Game Time: 3:00 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Eagles -6 -107
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Eagles -4.5 -120
Over/Under 37u to 37.5u -105 to -116
Anyone who was concerned about there being a little rust on the Eagles wheels breathed a collective sigh of relief almost from the start of the Minnesota game. In what could only be described as methodical, the Eagles shut-down the scoring ability of the Vikings and used a well balanced offensive approach when it was their turn to carry the rock.
RB Brian Westbrook showed his versatlitly, rushing for 70 yards and receiving for another 47, including a touchdown. WR Greg Lewis stepped up when called into action, grabbing a 52 yards pass from McNabb that set up the 7 yard TD for Westbrook.
The Eagles defense stood tall with Jevon Kearse doing his thing at DE and Jeremiah Trotter his at MLB. Although it allowed 385 yards, it kept up the pressure and never let Daunte Culpepper get into a rhythm. They picked him twice and kept his star receivers from making many big plays, a 40 yard reception by Marcus Robinson was the deepest Culpepper was able to complete. Randy Moss, the biggest of those stars, was almost completely held in check, gaining only 51 yards on 3 grabs. The fact the Mike Tice was holding the clipboard didn't hurt the Eagles any either.
The Falcons put on a show for the home team crowd. Vick wowed them with a pair of TD passes and 100+ yard rushing game. RB Warrick Dunn ran for 113 yards and broke off a 62 yard blast to pay dirt.
But the real hero in that game was Allen Rossum, who finished the night with over 150 yards (152, NFL Playoff Record) on 3 punt returns including a 68 yarder for a touchdown.
Atlanta, as a whole, ended the night with a staggering 327 yards rushing. The flip side of that coin is that they only got about 70 yards total through the air. Keep in mind that they were playing against a tired and banged up St. Louis Rams squad that finished the season 8-8. Not exactly a stellar opponent by any stretch of the imagination.
Moving along...
The Eagles showed that they can win without Terrell Owens.
The Falcons showed that they are what they are.
The Eagles are good for a couple of reasons:
The Falcons are not a good passing team. If even moderately contained and forced to pass, Vick is as apt to throw the ball to his opposition as he is to own receivers.
The Eagles have a balanced offense and (despite a very questionable series at the end of the half) a good coaching staff that is aware of what it can and can't do.
Furthermore, the Phili D is tougher than the Atlanta D. The Falcons come with a lot of blitz packages, but then again they ended the season with just one more sack than the Eagles. Add into that a better offensive line and a more well rounded game and the Eagles have it in spades over Atlanta.
My Online Betting Action: The Eagles -5
As Promised:
First my sincerest apologies to my loyal
But, I have returned and further promise to never let it happen again. In an attempt to win back the hearts of those who have put up with my long winded ramblings all season, I will have a special, “Not Safe For Work” Anna pic posted following this match-up analysis. This will be one that I would not have shared but for my deplorable actions over the last couple of weeks.
Now on to the only reason you are still reading...
NFL NFC Title Game
The Atlanta Falcons (12-5) at The Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
Against the Spread: Falcons 8-8-1 | Eagles 10-5-1
Game Time: 3:00 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Eagles -6 -107
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Eagles -4.5 -120
Over/Under 37u to 37.5u -105 to -116
Anyone who was concerned about there being a little rust on the Eagles wheels breathed a collective sigh of relief almost from the start of the Minnesota game. In what could only be described as methodical, the Eagles shut-down the scoring ability of the Vikings and used a well balanced offensive approach when it was their turn to carry the rock.
RB Brian Westbrook showed his versatlitly, rushing for 70 yards and receiving for another 47, including a touchdown. WR Greg Lewis stepped up when called into action, grabbing a 52 yards pass from McNabb that set up the 7 yard TD for Westbrook.
The Eagles defense stood tall with Jevon Kearse doing his thing at DE and Jeremiah Trotter his at MLB. Although it allowed 385 yards, it kept up the pressure and never let Daunte Culpepper get into a rhythm. They picked him twice and kept his star receivers from making many big plays, a 40 yard reception by Marcus Robinson was the deepest Culpepper was able to complete. Randy Moss, the biggest of those stars, was almost completely held in check, gaining only 51 yards on 3 grabs. The fact the Mike Tice was holding the clipboard didn't hurt the Eagles any either.
The Falcons put on a show for the home team crowd. Vick wowed them with a pair of TD passes and 100+ yard rushing game. RB Warrick Dunn ran for 113 yards and broke off a 62 yard blast to pay dirt.
But the real hero in that game was Allen Rossum, who finished the night with over 150 yards (152, NFL Playoff Record) on 3 punt returns including a 68 yarder for a touchdown.
Atlanta, as a whole, ended the night with a staggering 327 yards rushing. The flip side of that coin is that they only got about 70 yards total through the air. Keep in mind that they were playing against a tired and banged up St. Louis Rams squad that finished the season 8-8. Not exactly a stellar opponent by any stretch of the imagination.
Moving along...
The Eagles showed that they can win without Terrell Owens.
The Falcons showed that they are what they are.
The Eagles are good for a couple of reasons:
The Falcons are not a good passing team. If even moderately contained and forced to pass, Vick is as apt to throw the ball to his opposition as he is to own receivers.
The Eagles have a balanced offense and (despite a very questionable series at the end of the half) a good coaching staff that is aware of what it can and can't do.
Furthermore, the Phili D is tougher than the Atlanta D. The Falcons come with a lot of blitz packages, but then again they ended the season with just one more sack than the Eagles. Add into that a better offensive line and a more well rounded game and the Eagles have it in spades over Atlanta.
My Online Betting Action: The Eagles -5
As Promised:
Anna Checks for Scrambling Vicks
Saturday, January 15, 2005
NFL Against the Spread – Online Betting Picks of the Week
The St. Louis Rams (9-8) at The Atlanta Falcons (11-5)
Against the Spread: Rams 6-10-1 | Falcons 7-8-1
Game Time: 8:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Falcons -7 -103 Over/Under 48u -113
Current High NFL Betting Line: Falcons -7.5 +110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Falcons -7 -101 to -110
Over/Under 48u to 48.5u -103 to -110
The Rams bailed this gambler out of a losing weekend (I took them on the Money Line) and looked good doing it. Say what you want about Martz, but him and Bulger seem to have gotten a knack for this. Liking the Rams again, but nothing yet.
The Rams will be facing off against an Atlanta pass rush that saw 48 sacks in regular season. Match this with an offensive line that has allowed 41 sacks and QB Marc Bulger is looking at a long day. His saving grace could be the use of a more than decent ground package with RB's Marshall Faulk and Steven Jackson. But with Martz doing the play calling, who knows. If it ends up as a pass first run second scenario (as it has most of the season) then the Rams banged up O line is going to have a tough time keeping the Falcon's D at bay.
The Falcons have a record that just doesn't fit their team. They are a lot worse than their 11-5 standing would have you believe. If QB Michael Vick is not on the run they have little to no offense. Containing him is much easier said than done, however.
A repeat of the week two meeting is certainly not out of the question, particularly with the make-shift O-line that St. Louis will be starting. Then again, the Rams beat Seattle last week to get to Atlanta, proving that anything is possible.
Personally, this game is frightening either way, Rams +6 to 7 or Atlanta -6 to 7. But the Under is not a horrible wager.
My Online Betting Action: None
Possible wager:
The Under @ 49.5
The St. Louis Rams (9-8) at The Atlanta Falcons (11-5)
Against the Spread: Rams 6-10-1 | Falcons 7-8-1
Game Time: 8:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Falcons -7 -103 Over/Under 48u -113
Current High NFL Betting Line: Falcons -7.5 +110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Falcons -7 -101 to -110
Over/Under 48u to 48.5u -103 to -110
The Rams bailed this gambler out of a losing weekend (I took them on the Money Line) and looked good doing it. Say what you want about Martz, but him and Bulger seem to have gotten a knack for this. Liking the Rams again, but nothing yet.
The Rams will be facing off against an Atlanta pass rush that saw 48 sacks in regular season. Match this with an offensive line that has allowed 41 sacks and QB Marc Bulger is looking at a long day. His saving grace could be the use of a more than decent ground package with RB's Marshall Faulk and Steven Jackson. But with Martz doing the play calling, who knows. If it ends up as a pass first run second scenario (as it has most of the season) then the Rams banged up O line is going to have a tough time keeping the Falcon's D at bay.
The Falcons have a record that just doesn't fit their team. They are a lot worse than their 11-5 standing would have you believe. If QB Michael Vick is not on the run they have little to no offense. Containing him is much easier said than done, however.
A repeat of the week two meeting is certainly not out of the question, particularly with the make-shift O-line that St. Louis will be starting. Then again, the Rams beat Seattle last week to get to Atlanta, proving that anything is possible.
Personally, this game is frightening either way, Rams +6 to 7 or Atlanta -6 to 7. But the Under is not a horrible wager.
My Online Betting Action: None
Possible wager:
The Under @ 49.5
Friday, January 14, 2005
NFL Against the Spread – Online Betting Picks of the Week
The New York Jets (11-6) at The Pittsburgh Steelers (15-1)
Against the Spread: Jets 9-7-1 | Steelers 10-5-1
Game Time: 4:30 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Steelers -9 +103 Over/Under 34u -116
Current High NFL Betting Line: Steelers -10 +115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Steelers -8.5 -105 to -110
Over/Under 34.5u to 35u -110 to -111
The Jets impressed me on their way through San Diego. But keep in mind that they caught a really lucky break in OT.
The Jets receivers did not do a stellar job, Moss continued his case of the drops. The league leading rusher, Curtis Martin, was held to 66 yards. The defense made a monstrous mistake that gave the Charger 1st and goal at the end of regulation with Eric Barton's roughing the passer penalty. This led to the Brees to Gates 1 yard TD pass that sent it into OT.
Still, when given the opportunity they did take it. Marching right down to the Charger's 10 yard line and getting the 3 pointer from Doug Brien.
The Steelers are tougher to run against than San Diego. Additionally they gave up a paltry 177 yards a game in the air during the regular season. They are a perfect 8-0 at home, and have had a couple of weeks to heal, rest and prepare.
Pittsburgh should handle the game from start to finish. Then again the Charger's should have as well.
The Jets played tough against the Steelers in their last meeting, sacking Big Ben twice and getting a couple picks as well. That Roethlisberger didn't have the deep threat of Plaxico Burress certainly helped, but 9 points worth?
I think so. The Jets made mistakes that they were able to get away with against the Charger's. The Steelers are one of those teams that you cannot make mistakes against and expect to walk away unscathed (relatively speaking).
Small Wager:
My Online Betting Action: The Steelers -8.5
The New York Jets (11-6) at The Pittsburgh Steelers (15-1)
Against the Spread: Jets 9-7-1 | Steelers 10-5-1
Game Time: 4:30 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Steelers -9 +103 Over/Under 34u -116
Current High NFL Betting Line: Steelers -10 +115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Steelers -8.5 -105 to -110
Over/Under 34.5u to 35u -110 to -111
The Jets impressed me on their way through San Diego. But keep in mind that they caught a really lucky break in OT.
The Jets receivers did not do a stellar job, Moss continued his case of the drops. The league leading rusher, Curtis Martin, was held to 66 yards. The defense made a monstrous mistake that gave the Charger 1st and goal at the end of regulation with Eric Barton's roughing the passer penalty. This led to the Brees to Gates 1 yard TD pass that sent it into OT.
Still, when given the opportunity they did take it. Marching right down to the Charger's 10 yard line and getting the 3 pointer from Doug Brien.
The Steelers are tougher to run against than San Diego. Additionally they gave up a paltry 177 yards a game in the air during the regular season. They are a perfect 8-0 at home, and have had a couple of weeks to heal, rest and prepare.
Pittsburgh should handle the game from start to finish. Then again the Charger's should have as well.
The Jets played tough against the Steelers in their last meeting, sacking Big Ben twice and getting a couple picks as well. That Roethlisberger didn't have the deep threat of Plaxico Burress certainly helped, but 9 points worth?
I think so. The Jets made mistakes that they were able to get away with against the Charger's. The Steelers are one of those teams that you cannot make mistakes against and expect to walk away unscathed (relatively speaking).
Small Wager:
My Online Betting Action: The Steelers -8.5
Tuesday, January 11, 2005
NFL Against the Spread – Opening Betting Lines NFL Playoffs Week 2
Saturday AFC and NFC Games
The New York Jets (11-6) at The Pittsburgh Steelers (15-1)
Against the Spread: Jets 9-7-1 | Steelers 10-5-1
Game Time: 4:30 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Steelers -9 +103 Over/Under 34u -116
Current High NFL Betting Line: Steelers -10 +115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Steelers -8.5 -110
Over/Under 34.5u to 35u -110 to -111
The Jets impressed me on their way through San Diego. But keep in mind that they caught a really lucky break in OT.
The St. Louis Rams (9-8) at The Atlanta Falcons (11-5)
Against the Spread: Rams 6-10-1 | Falcons 7-8-1
Game Time: 8:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Falcons -7 -103 Over/Under 48u -113
Current High NFL Betting Line: Falcons -7.5 +110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Falcons -7 -101 to -110
Over/Under 48u to 48.5u -103 to -110
The Rams bailed this gambler out of a losing weekend (I took them on the Money Line) and looked good doing it. Say what you want about Martz, but him and Bulger seem to have gotten a knack for this. Liking the Rams again, but nothing yet.
Sunday AFC and NFC Games
The Minnesota Vikings (9-8) at The Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)
Against the Spread: Vikings 8-9-0 | Eagles 9-7-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Eagles -9 +101 Over/Under 49u -103
Current High NFL Betting Line: Eagles -11 +120
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Eagles -9.5 -110 to -111
Over/Under 48u to 49.5u -103 to -110
The Vikings had a miracle game against the Packers. Or the Packers had a disgraceful game against the Vikings. Still not sure which. 10 points seems steep for a TO-less Eagles team.
The Indianapolis Colts (8-8) at The New England Patriots (9-7)
Against the Spread: Vikings 5-10-1 | Eagles 5-11-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Patriots EVEN -115 Over/Under 51.5u -104
Current High NFL Betting Line: Patriots -3 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Patriots -1 -116
Over/Under 51.5u to 52u -104 to -111
New England may get a bit of a boost in the secondary with the signing of ex-Steeler Hank Poteat. Considering he's been out of work for sometime means his impact should be taken with a grain of salt. All the same, the Pats' know what the deal is. As almost a PICK, New England looks ripe.
Now, because I can:
Saturday AFC and NFC Games
The New York Jets (11-6) at The Pittsburgh Steelers (15-1)
Against the Spread: Jets 9-7-1 | Steelers 10-5-1
Game Time: 4:30 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Steelers -9 +103 Over/Under 34u -116
Current High NFL Betting Line: Steelers -10 +115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Steelers -8.5 -110
Over/Under 34.5u to 35u -110 to -111
The Jets impressed me on their way through San Diego. But keep in mind that they caught a really lucky break in OT.
The St. Louis Rams (9-8) at The Atlanta Falcons (11-5)
Against the Spread: Rams 6-10-1 | Falcons 7-8-1
Game Time: 8:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Falcons -7 -103 Over/Under 48u -113
Current High NFL Betting Line: Falcons -7.5 +110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Falcons -7 -101 to -110
Over/Under 48u to 48.5u -103 to -110
The Rams bailed this gambler out of a losing weekend (I took them on the Money Line) and looked good doing it. Say what you want about Martz, but him and Bulger seem to have gotten a knack for this. Liking the Rams again, but nothing yet.
Sunday AFC and NFC Games
The Minnesota Vikings (9-8) at The Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)
Against the Spread: Vikings 8-9-0 | Eagles 9-7-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Eagles -9 +101 Over/Under 49u -103
Current High NFL Betting Line: Eagles -11 +120
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Eagles -9.5 -110 to -111
Over/Under 48u to 49.5u -103 to -110
The Vikings had a miracle game against the Packers. Or the Packers had a disgraceful game against the Vikings. Still not sure which. 10 points seems steep for a TO-less Eagles team.
The Indianapolis Colts (8-8) at The New England Patriots (9-7)
Against the Spread: Vikings 5-10-1 | Eagles 5-11-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Patriots EVEN -115 Over/Under 51.5u -104
Current High NFL Betting Line: Patriots -3 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Patriots -1 -116
Over/Under 51.5u to 52u -104 to -111
New England may get a bit of a boost in the secondary with the signing of ex-Steeler Hank Poteat. Considering he's been out of work for sometime means his impact should be taken with a grain of salt. All the same, the Pats' know what the deal is. As almost a PICK, New England looks ripe.
Now, because I can:
Anna takes a moment to “smile” for NFL Online Betting
Sunday, January 09, 2005
NFL Against the Spread – Picks of the Week Saturday – Part 4
Sunday Wild Card Late Game
The Minnesota Vikings (8-8) at The Green Bay Packers (10-6)
Against the Spread: Vikings 7-9-0 | Packers 7-9-0
Game Time: 4:30 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Packers -6 -107 Over/Under 48.5u -111
Current High NFL Betting Line: Packers -7 +110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Packers -6 -117
Over/Under 51.5u to 52.5u -108 to -120
Green Bay is Rocking and Rolling. The win last week proved how much this team (read Favre) wants this chance. Minnesota is our other 8-8 qualifier, and they back-doored their way in. St. Louis had to make the last two count. They did, which puts them a notch above the Vikings. Wager already on the Packers before the line climbs any higher.
The Vikings have shown time and again that they can't get the job done when the pressure is on. They dropped the last 2 of regular season, and beat Detroit because of a missed extra point after the Lions scored at the end of the game.
Minnesota is hurting at a couple of key positions, namely safety, with Corey Chavous out with a broken elbow. Having WR Kelly Campbell sidelined may not seem that big a deal, but he has been a good situational receiver and will be missed by Culpepper if he is unable to go.
The Packers have gotten hot, Favre is ready for a shot at the Super Bowl and knows that the first step on this road is to defeat Minnesota. There is also the fact that he is unsure of his future and it may be that he sees this as, potentially, his last opportunity. Who knows?
Green Bay has gotten the upper hand in the previous two meetings by a field goal, both games ending with identical 34-31 scores. The Packers need to get out in front quickly and prove that they are worthy of contention to the rest of the league. The margin of victory needs to be greater the a mere 3 points.
As for injuries, WR Robert Fergusons' status is unchanged, still listed as Doubtful, but the rest of the first team seems ready to play ball.
This game is just as much about next weeks game as it is about the victory today.
My Online Betting Action: The Packers -6
Sunday Wild Card Late Game
The Minnesota Vikings (8-8) at The Green Bay Packers (10-6)
Against the Spread: Vikings 7-9-0 | Packers 7-9-0
Game Time: 4:30 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Packers -6 -107 Over/Under 48.5u -111
Current High NFL Betting Line: Packers -7 +110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Packers -6 -117
Over/Under 51.5u to 52.5u -108 to -120
Green Bay is Rocking and Rolling. The win last week proved how much this team (read Favre) wants this chance. Minnesota is our other 8-8 qualifier, and they back-doored their way in. St. Louis had to make the last two count. They did, which puts them a notch above the Vikings. Wager already on the Packers before the line climbs any higher.
The Vikings have shown time and again that they can't get the job done when the pressure is on. They dropped the last 2 of regular season, and beat Detroit because of a missed extra point after the Lions scored at the end of the game.
Minnesota is hurting at a couple of key positions, namely safety, with Corey Chavous out with a broken elbow. Having WR Kelly Campbell sidelined may not seem that big a deal, but he has been a good situational receiver and will be missed by Culpepper if he is unable to go.
The Packers have gotten hot, Favre is ready for a shot at the Super Bowl and knows that the first step on this road is to defeat Minnesota. There is also the fact that he is unsure of his future and it may be that he sees this as, potentially, his last opportunity. Who knows?
Green Bay has gotten the upper hand in the previous two meetings by a field goal, both games ending with identical 34-31 scores. The Packers need to get out in front quickly and prove that they are worthy of contention to the rest of the league. The margin of victory needs to be greater the a mere 3 points.
As for injuries, WR Robert Fergusons' status is unchanged, still listed as Doubtful, but the rest of the first team seems ready to play ball.
This game is just as much about next weeks game as it is about the victory today.
My Online Betting Action: The Packers -6
NFL Against the Spread – Picks of the Week Saturday – Part 3
Sunday Wild Card Early Game
The Denver Broncos (10-6) at The Indianapolis Colts (12-4)
Against the Spread: Broncos 6-7-3 | Colts 9-6-1
Game Time: 1:30 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Colts -10 -110 Over/Under 56.5u -106
Current High NFL Betting Line: Colts -11.5 +115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Colts -10 -110 to -120
Over/Under 55.5u to 56u -106 to -125
So Denver came up big against the the Colts second team last week. Wonder what kind of success they will see against the Real Indianapolis Colts. -10 is the only reason that a wager hasn't been made yet.
After Looking and Looking at this game, then watching back to back upsets, it became readily apparent why they call this “Wild Card” weekend. Therefore this is going to be brief.
Although the Colts should not have a problem beating the Bronco's, wagering on that outcome, particularly -10 points, is not a Value Wager.
There are a few dings to the Colts offense, namely WR Brandon Stokely, that depending on the true severity, could limit this team a bit offensively.
The Bronco's beat Indianapolis but with virtually none of Indy's starters in the game. So you can scratch that one. You have to go back a little further to see how they have handled the last few games. Well the answer is, so-so. While they held Tennessee to 16 points they were firebombed by the very inept Raider O. They lost to the stout Chargers, but by a mere field goal. Two weeks later they get their hats handed to them Kansas City in a 45-17 loss.
Denver has been streaky all season so expecting a win is a stretch, and even getting 10, it still doesn't merit a wager. Fact of the matter is, you just don't know what Denver team will show up.
But because I'm a glutton for punishment (and caught both my MO wager on St. Louis and the 2 teamer):
My Online Betting Action: 2 Team Teaser The Colts -10(+6) The Under 56 (+6)
Sunday Wild Card Early Game
The Denver Broncos (10-6) at The Indianapolis Colts (12-4)
Against the Spread: Broncos 6-7-3 | Colts 9-6-1
Game Time: 1:30 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Colts -10 -110 Over/Under 56.5u -106
Current High NFL Betting Line: Colts -11.5 +115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Colts -10 -110 to -120
Over/Under 55.5u to 56u -106 to -125
So Denver came up big against the the Colts second team last week. Wonder what kind of success they will see against the Real Indianapolis Colts. -10 is the only reason that a wager hasn't been made yet.
After Looking and Looking at this game, then watching back to back upsets, it became readily apparent why they call this “Wild Card” weekend. Therefore this is going to be brief.
Although the Colts should not have a problem beating the Bronco's, wagering on that outcome, particularly -10 points, is not a Value Wager.
There are a few dings to the Colts offense, namely WR Brandon Stokely, that depending on the true severity, could limit this team a bit offensively.
The Bronco's beat Indianapolis but with virtually none of Indy's starters in the game. So you can scratch that one. You have to go back a little further to see how they have handled the last few games. Well the answer is, so-so. While they held Tennessee to 16 points they were firebombed by the very inept Raider O. They lost to the stout Chargers, but by a mere field goal. Two weeks later they get their hats handed to them Kansas City in a 45-17 loss.
Denver has been streaky all season so expecting a win is a stretch, and even getting 10, it still doesn't merit a wager. Fact of the matter is, you just don't know what Denver team will show up.
But because I'm a glutton for punishment (and caught both my MO wager on St. Louis and the 2 teamer):
My Online Betting Action: 2 Team Teaser The Colts -10(+6) The Under 56 (+6)
Saturday, January 08, 2005
NFL Against the Spread – Picks of the Week Saturday – Part 2
Saturday Wild Card Late Game
Early Game
The New York Jets (10-6) at The San Diego Chargers (12-4)
Against the Spread: Jets 8-7-1 | Chargers 13-1-2 (Wow!)
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Chargers -6.5 -115 Over/Under 44u -111
Current High NFL Betting Line: Chargers -7.5 +115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Chargers -6.5 -109 to -125
Over/Under 41.5u to 42u EVEN to -115 <--- Weather related.
Jets on a two game losing skid, Chargers losing only 1 of their last 10 and at home... Liking the Charger's in this match-up.
Going against the Jets as underdogs seems a bad proposal what with Martin and Jordan pounding the ball against you. But SD has a good run stopping game, albeit maybe not as tested as it will be against that tandem.
The real reason that I like the Charger's is three fold. They are good at home, they have the best ATS in the NFL and they have not been in the playoffs in a long time. There is also, LT, Antonio Gates and contract year QB, Drew Brees.
The Jets have not played well. It's not a perception it's a fact. They have failed to maintain games that they should have won. Their defense is allowing too many second half points, and the coaching system is not allowing for that lost ground.
The Chargers give up a couple more points a game defensively than the Jets do. However, offensively they outscore NY by better than 7. That and the fact that the Chargers play 4 quarters of good ball is a part of the reason behind a Charger's wager. More on this later.
The injury to Pennington's rotator cuff has limited his ability to throw down field and has clearly hurt his accuracy. The result has been a dependence on their running game and short-range passes.
This plays right into the strengths of the Chargers defense. Primarily the linebackers. Donnie Edwards, perhaps this season’s greatest Pro Bowl snub, has a knack for momentum-changing plays and is strong against the run and the pass. Wade Phillips’ has become a force in the 3-4 defense, registering 10 sacks this year after having only 10.5 in his entire career.
Bottom line, after adjusting for strength of schedule (Jets play in a D first Div., SD in a O first Div.), the numbers are upside-down. The Jets have a weaker defense than the Chargers, and a slightly better offense. What makes this a more interesting fact is that while both offenses have slowed a bit, Jets' have slowed more. Defensively, both teams have stepped it up, but again the advantage lies with the Chargers.
My Online Betting Action: The Chargers -6.5
Saturday Wild Card Late Game
Early Game
The New York Jets (10-6) at The San Diego Chargers (12-4)
Against the Spread: Jets 8-7-1 | Chargers 13-1-2 (Wow!)
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Chargers -6.5 -115 Over/Under 44u -111
Current High NFL Betting Line: Chargers -7.5 +115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Chargers -6.5 -109 to -125
Over/Under 41.5u to 42u EVEN to -115 <--- Weather related.
Jets on a two game losing skid, Chargers losing only 1 of their last 10 and at home... Liking the Charger's in this match-up.
Going against the Jets as underdogs seems a bad proposal what with Martin and Jordan pounding the ball against you. But SD has a good run stopping game, albeit maybe not as tested as it will be against that tandem.
The real reason that I like the Charger's is three fold. They are good at home, they have the best ATS in the NFL and they have not been in the playoffs in a long time. There is also, LT, Antonio Gates and contract year QB, Drew Brees.
The Jets have not played well. It's not a perception it's a fact. They have failed to maintain games that they should have won. Their defense is allowing too many second half points, and the coaching system is not allowing for that lost ground.
The Chargers give up a couple more points a game defensively than the Jets do. However, offensively they outscore NY by better than 7. That and the fact that the Chargers play 4 quarters of good ball is a part of the reason behind a Charger's wager. More on this later.
The injury to Pennington's rotator cuff has limited his ability to throw down field and has clearly hurt his accuracy. The result has been a dependence on their running game and short-range passes.
This plays right into the strengths of the Chargers defense. Primarily the linebackers. Donnie Edwards, perhaps this season’s greatest Pro Bowl snub, has a knack for momentum-changing plays and is strong against the run and the pass. Wade Phillips’ has become a force in the 3-4 defense, registering 10 sacks this year after having only 10.5 in his entire career.
Bottom line, after adjusting for strength of schedule (Jets play in a D first Div., SD in a O first Div.), the numbers are upside-down. The Jets have a weaker defense than the Chargers, and a slightly better offense. What makes this a more interesting fact is that while both offenses have slowed a bit, Jets' have slowed more. Defensively, both teams have stepped it up, but again the advantage lies with the Chargers.
My Online Betting Action: The Chargers -6.5
NFL Against the Spread – Picks of the Week Saturday – Part 1
Saturday Wild Card Early Game
The St. Louis Rams (8-8) at The Seattle Seahawks (9-7)
Against the Spread: Rams 5-10-1 | Seahawks 5-11-0
Game Time: 4:30 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Seahawks -4 -109 Over/Under 51.5u -108
Current High NFL Betting Line: Seahawks -3.5 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Seahawks -4+101 to -110
Over/Under 50u to 50.5u EVEN to -115
Well everyone guessed it, 8-8 teams would see the playoffs in the NFC. Momentum being equal going into this game, this is a tough call as a pick. Seattle -4 makes it worth looking at towards the Rams.
Picking games on wild card weekend is probably as hard as picking games the first week of the season. Different reasoning behind it but the end result is the same. It's tough! Hence, the write-ups for these games will not be very lengthy as there aren't reasons for large wagers on the games.
Rams and Seahawks both have momentum going their way. I think that the Shaun Alexander thing is of little to no concern through the playoffs, although it will undoubtedly rear it's ugly head in the off season.
I like the Rams primarily due to the level of experience they have in games just like this (Martz critics hold your collective toungues). They are a team that plays well under pressure. Also, despite being on the Doubtful list, G Tom Nutten may still start. His intensity on the field helps as much as his abilities. RB Steven Jackson may well see the “passing of the torch” in this game.
The Seahawks have, by far, the superior defense, but it is one that has not been able to stop St. Louis. Home field advantage has helped (5-3), but not as much as one would like. They were unable to defeat the Rams on the road or at home during the regular season.
Going against Seattle is by no stretch a lock so, for a small, “just to have fun”, wager:
My Online Betting Action: 2 Team Teaser The Rams +4(+6) The Under 50 (+6) <-- Under due to the high probability of rain/snow.
Another possibility, if you are really confident in the Rams:
Money Line The Rams around +150
Saturday Wild Card Early Game
The St. Louis Rams (8-8) at The Seattle Seahawks (9-7)
Against the Spread: Rams 5-10-1 | Seahawks 5-11-0
Game Time: 4:30 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Seahawks -4 -109 Over/Under 51.5u -108
Current High NFL Betting Line: Seahawks -3.5 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Seahawks -4+101 to -110
Over/Under 50u to 50.5u EVEN to -115
Well everyone guessed it, 8-8 teams would see the playoffs in the NFC. Momentum being equal going into this game, this is a tough call as a pick. Seattle -4 makes it worth looking at towards the Rams.
Picking games on wild card weekend is probably as hard as picking games the first week of the season. Different reasoning behind it but the end result is the same. It's tough! Hence, the write-ups for these games will not be very lengthy as there aren't reasons for large wagers on the games.
Rams and Seahawks both have momentum going their way. I think that the Shaun Alexander thing is of little to no concern through the playoffs, although it will undoubtedly rear it's ugly head in the off season.
I like the Rams primarily due to the level of experience they have in games just like this (Martz critics hold your collective toungues). They are a team that plays well under pressure. Also, despite being on the Doubtful list, G Tom Nutten may still start. His intensity on the field helps as much as his abilities. RB Steven Jackson may well see the “passing of the torch” in this game.
The Seahawks have, by far, the superior defense, but it is one that has not been able to stop St. Louis. Home field advantage has helped (5-3), but not as much as one would like. They were unable to defeat the Rams on the road or at home during the regular season.
Going against Seattle is by no stretch a lock so, for a small, “just to have fun”, wager:
My Online Betting Action: 2 Team Teaser The Rams +4(+6) The Under 50 (+6) <-- Under due to the high probability of rain/snow.
Another possibility, if you are really confident in the Rams:
Money Line The Rams around +150
Thursday, January 06, 2005
NFL Against the Spread – Betting Line Changes & Injury Update
The St. Louis Rams (8-8) at The Seattle Seahawks (9-7)
Against the Spread: Rams 5-10-1 | Seahawks 5-11-0
Game Time: 4:30 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Seahawks -4 -109 Over/Under 51.5u -108
Current High NFL Betting Line: Seahawks -4 -105 to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Seahawks -3.5 -110 to -115
Over/Under 50.5u EVEN to -111
Rams
Doubtful:
RB Arlen Harris (hamstring)
G Tom Nutten (knee)
Questionable:
DE Tyoka Jackson (ankle)
DE Leonard Little (groin)
Probable :
WR Isaac Bruce (hip)
LB Brandon Chillar (shoulder)
DE Bryce Fisher (ankle)
Seahawks
Out:
DT Marcus Tubbs (ankle)
WR Jerheme Urban (foot)
Doubtful :
DE Grant Wistrom (knee)
Questionable :
LB Niko Koutouvides (knee)
TE Itula Mili (thigh)
CB Bobby Taylor (knee)
Probable:
WR Darrell Jackson (hamstring)
CB Marcus Trufant (thigh)
G Jerry Wunsch (illness).
---
The New York Jets (10-6) at The San Diego Chargers (12-4)
Against the Spread: Jets 8-7-1 | Chargers 13-1-2 (Wow!)
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Chargers -6.5 -115 Over/Under 44u -111
Current High NFL Betting Line: Chargers -7.5 +110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Chargers -6.5 -111 to -115
Over/Under 42u to 42.5u +103 to -111
Jets
Questionable :
LB Kenyatta Wright (ankle)
Probable :
DE John Abraham (knee)
WR Wayne Chrebet (concussion)
Chargers
Questionable :
CB Sammy Davis (fracture lower leg)
WR Tim Dwight (toe)
WR Keenan McCardell (hamstring)
Probable :
RB Jesse Chatman (toe)
---
The Denver Broncos (10-6) at The Indianapolis Colts (12-4)
Against the Spread: Broncos 6-7-3 | Colts 9-6-1
Game Time: 4:30 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Colts -10 -110 Over/Under 56.5u -106
Current High NFL Betting Line: Colts -11.5 +115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Colts -10 -105 to -111
Over/Under 55.5u to 56u EVEN to -111
Broncos
Questionable :
RB Kyle Johnson (ankle)
G Dan Neil (abdomen/knee)
Probable :
CB Roc Alexander (ankle)
WR Triandos Luke (concussion)
S John Lynch (thumb)
DE Anton Palepoi (shoulder)
DE Trevor Pryce (back)
Colts
Out:
LB Gilbert Gardner (shoulder)
Questionable :
CB Jason David (foot)
G Rick DeMulling (ribs)
TE Marcus Pollard (ankle)
WR Troy Walters (head)
Probable :
S Idrees Bashir (hamstring)
LB Gary Brackett (hamstring/thigh)
TE Dallas Clark (head)
CB Nick Harper (back)
DE Robert Mathis (groin)
LB Rob Morris (head)
WR Brandon Stokley (foot)
---
The Minnesota Vikings (8-8) at The Green Bay Packers (10-6)
Against the Spread: Vikings 7-9-0 | Packers 7-9-0
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Packers -6 -107 Over/Under 48.5u -111
Current High NFL Betting Line: Packers -7 +110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Packers -6 -105 to -116
Over/Under 50u -110 to -111
Vikings
Out:
S Corey Chavous (elbow)
Questionable :
WR Kelly Campbell (shoulder)
Probable :
CB Terrance Shaw (ribs)
RB Moe Williams (ankle)
CB Brian Williams (illness)
Packers
Doubtful:
WR Robert Ferguson (head/neck)
Probable:
RB Najeh Davenport (shoulder)
TE Bubba Franks (knee)
DT Grady Jackson (knee)
RB Vonta Leach (shin/ankle)
LB Paris Lenon (elbow)
Picks coming up shortly...
The St. Louis Rams (8-8) at The Seattle Seahawks (9-7)
Against the Spread: Rams 5-10-1 | Seahawks 5-11-0
Game Time: 4:30 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Seahawks -4 -109 Over/Under 51.5u -108
Current High NFL Betting Line: Seahawks -4 -105 to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Seahawks -3.5 -110 to -115
Over/Under 50.5u EVEN to -111
Rams
Doubtful:
RB Arlen Harris (hamstring)
G Tom Nutten (knee)
Questionable:
DE Tyoka Jackson (ankle)
DE Leonard Little (groin)
Probable :
WR Isaac Bruce (hip)
LB Brandon Chillar (shoulder)
DE Bryce Fisher (ankle)
Seahawks
Out:
DT Marcus Tubbs (ankle)
WR Jerheme Urban (foot)
Doubtful :
DE Grant Wistrom (knee)
Questionable :
LB Niko Koutouvides (knee)
TE Itula Mili (thigh)
CB Bobby Taylor (knee)
Probable:
WR Darrell Jackson (hamstring)
CB Marcus Trufant (thigh)
G Jerry Wunsch (illness).
---
The New York Jets (10-6) at The San Diego Chargers (12-4)
Against the Spread: Jets 8-7-1 | Chargers 13-1-2 (Wow!)
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Chargers -6.5 -115 Over/Under 44u -111
Current High NFL Betting Line: Chargers -7.5 +110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Chargers -6.5 -111 to -115
Over/Under 42u to 42.5u +103 to -111
Jets
Questionable :
LB Kenyatta Wright (ankle)
Probable :
DE John Abraham (knee)
WR Wayne Chrebet (concussion)
Chargers
Questionable :
CB Sammy Davis (fracture lower leg)
WR Tim Dwight (toe)
WR Keenan McCardell (hamstring)
Probable :
RB Jesse Chatman (toe)
---
The Denver Broncos (10-6) at The Indianapolis Colts (12-4)
Against the Spread: Broncos 6-7-3 | Colts 9-6-1
Game Time: 4:30 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Colts -10 -110 Over/Under 56.5u -106
Current High NFL Betting Line: Colts -11.5 +115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Colts -10 -105 to -111
Over/Under 55.5u to 56u EVEN to -111
Broncos
Questionable :
RB Kyle Johnson (ankle)
G Dan Neil (abdomen/knee)
Probable :
CB Roc Alexander (ankle)
WR Triandos Luke (concussion)
S John Lynch (thumb)
DE Anton Palepoi (shoulder)
DE Trevor Pryce (back)
Colts
Out:
LB Gilbert Gardner (shoulder)
Questionable :
CB Jason David (foot)
G Rick DeMulling (ribs)
TE Marcus Pollard (ankle)
WR Troy Walters (head)
Probable :
S Idrees Bashir (hamstring)
LB Gary Brackett (hamstring/thigh)
TE Dallas Clark (head)
CB Nick Harper (back)
DE Robert Mathis (groin)
LB Rob Morris (head)
WR Brandon Stokley (foot)
---
The Minnesota Vikings (8-8) at The Green Bay Packers (10-6)
Against the Spread: Vikings 7-9-0 | Packers 7-9-0
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Packers -6 -107 Over/Under 48.5u -111
Current High NFL Betting Line: Packers -7 +110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Packers -6 -105 to -116
Over/Under 50u -110 to -111
Vikings
Out:
S Corey Chavous (elbow)
Questionable :
WR Kelly Campbell (shoulder)
Probable :
CB Terrance Shaw (ribs)
RB Moe Williams (ankle)
CB Brian Williams (illness)
Packers
Doubtful:
WR Robert Ferguson (head/neck)
Probable:
RB Najeh Davenport (shoulder)
TE Bubba Franks (knee)
DT Grady Jackson (knee)
RB Vonta Leach (shin/ankle)
LB Paris Lenon (elbow)
Picks coming up shortly...
Tuesday, January 04, 2005
NFL Against the Spread – Opening Betting Lines
Wild Card Weekend
Saturday Wild Card Games
The St. Louis Rams (8-8) at The Seattle Seahawks (9-7)
Against the Spread: Rams 5-10-1 | Seahawks 5-11-0
Game Time: 4:30 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Seahawks -4 -109 Over/Under 51.5u -108
Current High NFL Betting Line: Seahawks -4 -116
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Seahawks -4 -109
Over/Under 51.5u -108 to -111
Well everyone guessed it, 8-8 teams would see the playoffs in the NFC. Momentum being equal going into this game, this is a tough call as a pick. Seattle -4 makes it worth looking at towards the Rams. Nothing yet, however.
The New York Jets (10-6) at The San Diego Chargers (12-4)
Against the Spread: Jets 8-7-1 | Chargers 13-1-2 (Wow!)
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Chargers -6.5 -115 Over/Under 44u -111
Current High NFL Betting Line: Chargers -7.5 +115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Chargers -6.5 -110 to -120
Over/Under 44u to 44.5u -110 to -111
Jets on a two game losing skid, Chargers losing only 1 of their last 10 and at home... Liking the Charger's in this match-up. Waiting on the wager to see if the line drifts towards the Jets.
Sunday Wild Card Games
The Denver Broncos (10-6) at The Indianapolis Colts (12-4)
Against the Spread: Broncos 6-7-3 | Colts 9-6-1
Game Time: 4:30 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Colts -10 -110 Over/Under 56.5u -106
Current High NFL Betting Line: Colts -12 +115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Colts -10 -110 to -120
Over/Under 56u to 56.5u -106 to -111
So Denver came up big against the the Colts second team last week. Wonder what kind of success they will see against the Real Indianapolis Colts. -10 is the only reason that a wager hasn't been made yet.
The Minnesota Vikings (8-8) at The Green Bay Packers (10-6)
Against the Spread: Vikings 7-9-0 | Packers 7-9-0
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Packers -6 -107 Over/Under 48.5u -111
Current High NFL Betting Line: Packers -7 +105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Packers -6 -107 to -116
Over/Under 48.5u to 49u -110 to -111
Green Bay is Rocking and Rolling. The win last week proved how much this team (read Favre) wants this chance. Minnesota is our other 8-8 qualifier, and they back-doored their way in. St. Louis had to make the last two count. They did, which puts them a notch above the Vikings. Wager already on the Packers before the line climbs any higher.
Saturday Wild Card Games
The St. Louis Rams (8-8) at The Seattle Seahawks (9-7)
Against the Spread: Rams 5-10-1 | Seahawks 5-11-0
Game Time: 4:30 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Seahawks -4 -109 Over/Under 51.5u -108
Current High NFL Betting Line: Seahawks -4 -116
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Seahawks -4 -109
Over/Under 51.5u -108 to -111
Well everyone guessed it, 8-8 teams would see the playoffs in the NFC. Momentum being equal going into this game, this is a tough call as a pick. Seattle -4 makes it worth looking at towards the Rams. Nothing yet, however.
The New York Jets (10-6) at The San Diego Chargers (12-4)
Against the Spread: Jets 8-7-1 | Chargers 13-1-2 (Wow!)
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Chargers -6.5 -115 Over/Under 44u -111
Current High NFL Betting Line: Chargers -7.5 +115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Chargers -6.5 -110 to -120
Over/Under 44u to 44.5u -110 to -111
Jets on a two game losing skid, Chargers losing only 1 of their last 10 and at home... Liking the Charger's in this match-up. Waiting on the wager to see if the line drifts towards the Jets.
Sunday Wild Card Games
The Denver Broncos (10-6) at The Indianapolis Colts (12-4)
Against the Spread: Broncos 6-7-3 | Colts 9-6-1
Game Time: 4:30 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Colts -10 -110 Over/Under 56.5u -106
Current High NFL Betting Line: Colts -12 +115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Colts -10 -110 to -120
Over/Under 56u to 56.5u -106 to -111
So Denver came up big against the the Colts second team last week. Wonder what kind of success they will see against the Real Indianapolis Colts. -10 is the only reason that a wager hasn't been made yet.
The Minnesota Vikings (8-8) at The Green Bay Packers (10-6)
Against the Spread: Vikings 7-9-0 | Packers 7-9-0
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Packers -6 -107 Over/Under 48.5u -111
Current High NFL Betting Line: Packers -7 +105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Packers -6 -107 to -116
Over/Under 48.5u to 49u -110 to -111
Green Bay is Rocking and Rolling. The win last week proved how much this team (read Favre) wants this chance. Minnesota is our other 8-8 qualifier, and they back-doored their way in. St. Louis had to make the last two count. They did, which puts them a notch above the Vikings. Wager already on the Packers before the line climbs any higher.
Saturday, January 01, 2005
NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Picks of The Week 17
The Final Regular Season NFL Match-ups
Here are the games worth noting and possible Online Betting Action.
Main Picks
The Green Bay Packers (9-6) at The Chicago Bears (5-10)
Against the Spread: Packers 6-9-0 | Bears 5-10-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Bears -3 -105 Over/Under 34u +101
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bears -3 -110 to -120
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bears -3 -110 to -120
Over/Under 34u to 35.5u +102 to -110
Another tricky one, GB has nothing to gain by winning. Chicago may play to win or play to evaluate.
Despite Green Bay's playoff status being unaffected by the outcome of this game there are a couple other things that give this game some Wagering Value.
The Packers have struggled recently to get off to early leads/starts. In the last four games Green Bay has not scored in the first quarter. This is an area that Mike Sherman wants to change prior to the beginning of the post season. So, unlike other teams that have their position all sewn up, the Packers are looking for a momentum swing before Wild Card Weekend. Since, in all likelihood, they will face off with Minnesota or Carolina they need to get that first quarter monkey off their collective backs. Even if a miracle happens and St. Louis ends up in the Wild Card game, they need to be able to score quickly so they can get a good running passing mix going to keep those offenses off the field.
The Packers are going to be without WR Robert Ferguson for their regular season finale. The good news is that Antonio Chatman did a fine job, stepping up to the plate when they needed him to for those critical 1st down catches. RB Najeh Davenport is listed as questionable, troubled with his shoulder injury. The fact that RB Ahman Green is still nursing his ribs gives them more incentive to get off to a quick lead. If they can accomplish that then they can use him sparingly, replacing him at some stage of the game with Tony Fisher.
There is also the great road record that the Packers have (5-2) that they would like to increase to 6-2, just one game under their best set in '72 (6-1). QB Brett Favre is well within making the 4000 yard and 30 touchdown milestone in the same season for a third time. There are other team and individual single-season Packers records that are within reach. The main point however, is getting the momentum going for the post season. Considering their road record, particularly against the Bears, Chicago seems to be the right place at the right to do just that.
The Bears are on a 3 game losing streak and with the exception of the Detroit loss, have been beaten by pretty wide margins. Going into all the troubles that Chicago has is like beating a dead horse, it's useless and kind of mean spirited.
Lovie Smith does have some bright spots for next season. They have a young and talented defense, that has lots of potential. If they can make a few off season moves and make a few good draft choices, they have something of a foundation to build from offensively. But none of this matters for this game.
My Online Betting Action: The Packers +3
The N.Y. Jets (10-5) at The St. Louis Rams (7-8)
Against the Spread: Jets 8-6-1 | Rams 4-10-1
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Jets -3 +109 Over/Under 43u +109
Current High NFL Betting Line: Jets -3.5 -101 to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Jets -3 -110 to -125
Over/Under 43u to 43.5u -105 to -110
Both the teams are in a “must win” to see the post season. The Jets are in the drivers seat however, as they can seal their fate either way in this game.
Not going to go into a big description of this game nor all the numbers to substantiate the value in this game.
Both teams need this win, but the Jets know that they can clinch a berth if they win.
St. Louis needs the win as well, but their fate will still be in the hands of others.
The Jets will use both RB's Curtis Martin and LaMont Jordan to keep the Rams offense off the field as much as possible, and they will be pounding against a suspect rush defense. Plus they will get the opportunity to take shots down field against a relatively weak secondary that's not going to have FS Aeneas Williams.
Small wager.
My Online Betting Action: The Jets -3
The Pittsburgh Steelers (14-1) at The Buffalo Bills (96)
Against the Spread: Steelers 9-5-1 | Bills 11-4-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Bills -9 -110 Over/Under 34u +102
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bills -10 +105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bills -9 -108 to -110
Over/Under 34u -105 to -110
The Steelers gain nothing by a win, as everything is set for them. Bills win and have a shot, but that's a lot to cover against the D of the Steelers.
The Steelers will not be using the following key offensive players:
QB Ben Roethlisberger
RB Duce Staley
RB Jerome Bettis
That speaks Volumes, and relegates this to a pretty short write up.
Buffalo can clinch with a win and they are playing very good ball. They are decently healthy and as long as QB Drew Bledsoe decides to give away this one, a win should not be that unsurmountable a task.
So the real question here is, can they cover the spread?
It's the answer that brings this to the less value mark.
Maybe. That's the answer. The Steelers D is tough and that means that there is going to have to be more than just RB Willis McGahee and the running game to beat Pittsburgh by better than a touchdown. So we are back to looking at Bledsoe. His numbers have improved a bit lately and that is why this gets a small wager.
My Online Betting Action: The Bills -9
The San Fransisco 49ers (2-13) at The New England Patriots (13-2)
Against the Spread: 49ers 6-9-0 | Patriots 10-3-2
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Patriots -13.5 -104 Over/Under 37u -106
Current High NFL Betting Line: Patriots -15 +115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Patriots -13 -110
Over/Under 37u to 40u EVEN to -110
Pat's have nothing to gain with a win. 49ers couldn't beat OSU on a good day. But covering 2 TD's from back-ups...?
This would be a no brainer, class A wager if it weren't for the fact that Tom Brady along with several other starters will probably not see more than a half of playing time. Against the 49ers however, a lot of damage can be done in 30 minutes.
Medium Wager because San Fransisco is so out-matched.
My Online Betting Action: The Patriots -13
The Kansas City Chiefs (7-8) at The San Diego Chargers (11-4)
Against the Spread: Chiefs 6-9-0 | Chargers 12-1-2 Best ATS in the League
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Chiefs -3 -108 Over/Under 54.5u -101
Current High NFL Betting Line: Chiefs -3.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Chiefs -3 -116 to -125
Over/Under 51.5u to 52u -110
Chargers are locked, taking the hard earned AFC West Title. Vermeil wants to end the season on a high note. Betting against a team with the best ATS is a hard call. Over maybe...?
Reason for a wager on this one is simple. The Chargers can score too.
Again no reason for a long description of the match-up.
KC wants to finish on a high note, getting it done is San Diego against the AFC West Title holders is not where you want to get your hopes up too high. That being said, they can score and quickly. Although Schottenheimer may not want the win bad enough to start Brees (although he hasn't ruled it out), he doesn't want to get blown out in their regular season finale in front of their fans.
Small Wager
My Online Betting Action: The Over 51.5
Here are the games worth noting and possible Online Betting Action.
Main Picks
The Green Bay Packers (9-6) at The Chicago Bears (5-10)
Against the Spread: Packers 6-9-0 | Bears 5-10-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Bears -3 -105 Over/Under 34u +101
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bears -3 -110 to -120
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bears -3 -110 to -120
Over/Under 34u to 35.5u +102 to -110
Another tricky one, GB has nothing to gain by winning. Chicago may play to win or play to evaluate.
Despite Green Bay's playoff status being unaffected by the outcome of this game there are a couple other things that give this game some Wagering Value.
The Packers have struggled recently to get off to early leads/starts. In the last four games Green Bay has not scored in the first quarter. This is an area that Mike Sherman wants to change prior to the beginning of the post season. So, unlike other teams that have their position all sewn up, the Packers are looking for a momentum swing before Wild Card Weekend. Since, in all likelihood, they will face off with Minnesota or Carolina they need to get that first quarter monkey off their collective backs. Even if a miracle happens and St. Louis ends up in the Wild Card game, they need to be able to score quickly so they can get a good running passing mix going to keep those offenses off the field.
The Packers are going to be without WR Robert Ferguson for their regular season finale. The good news is that Antonio Chatman did a fine job, stepping up to the plate when they needed him to for those critical 1st down catches. RB Najeh Davenport is listed as questionable, troubled with his shoulder injury. The fact that RB Ahman Green is still nursing his ribs gives them more incentive to get off to a quick lead. If they can accomplish that then they can use him sparingly, replacing him at some stage of the game with Tony Fisher.
There is also the great road record that the Packers have (5-2) that they would like to increase to 6-2, just one game under their best set in '72 (6-1). QB Brett Favre is well within making the 4000 yard and 30 touchdown milestone in the same season for a third time. There are other team and individual single-season Packers records that are within reach. The main point however, is getting the momentum going for the post season. Considering their road record, particularly against the Bears, Chicago seems to be the right place at the right to do just that.
The Bears are on a 3 game losing streak and with the exception of the Detroit loss, have been beaten by pretty wide margins. Going into all the troubles that Chicago has is like beating a dead horse, it's useless and kind of mean spirited.
Lovie Smith does have some bright spots for next season. They have a young and talented defense, that has lots of potential. If they can make a few off season moves and make a few good draft choices, they have something of a foundation to build from offensively. But none of this matters for this game.
My Online Betting Action: The Packers +3
Recent Trends
•GB is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.
•GB is 2-5 ATS in their last seven overall.
•Over is 9-2 in GB last 11 overall.
•CHI is 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games.
•Under is 5-0 in CHI last five overall.
•Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
The N.Y. Jets (10-5) at The St. Louis Rams (7-8)
Against the Spread: Jets 8-6-1 | Rams 4-10-1
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Jets -3 +109 Over/Under 43u +109
Current High NFL Betting Line: Jets -3.5 -101 to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Jets -3 -110 to -125
Over/Under 43u to 43.5u -105 to -110
Both the teams are in a “must win” to see the post season. The Jets are in the drivers seat however, as they can seal their fate either way in this game.
Not going to go into a big description of this game nor all the numbers to substantiate the value in this game.
Both teams need this win, but the Jets know that they can clinch a berth if they win.
St. Louis needs the win as well, but their fate will still be in the hands of others.
The Jets will use both RB's Curtis Martin and LaMont Jordan to keep the Rams offense off the field as much as possible, and they will be pounding against a suspect rush defense. Plus they will get the opportunity to take shots down field against a relatively weak secondary that's not going to have FS Aeneas Williams.
Small wager.
My Online Betting Action: The Jets -3
Recent Trends
•Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
•Under is 5-1 in NYJ last six overall.
•Jets are 4-2 ATS in their last six overall.
•Rams are 2-7 ATS in their last nine overall.
•Under is 4-0 in STL last four overall.
•STL is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.
The Pittsburgh Steelers (14-1) at The Buffalo Bills (96)
Against the Spread: Steelers 9-5-1 | Bills 11-4-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Bills -9 -110 Over/Under 34u +102
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bills -10 +105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bills -9 -108 to -110
Over/Under 34u -105 to -110
The Steelers gain nothing by a win, as everything is set for them. Bills win and have a shot, but that's a lot to cover against the D of the Steelers.
The Steelers will not be using the following key offensive players:
QB Ben Roethlisberger
RB Duce Staley
RB Jerome Bettis
That speaks Volumes, and relegates this to a pretty short write up.
Buffalo can clinch with a win and they are playing very good ball. They are decently healthy and as long as QB Drew Bledsoe decides to give away this one, a win should not be that unsurmountable a task.
So the real question here is, can they cover the spread?
It's the answer that brings this to the less value mark.
Maybe. That's the answer. The Steelers D is tough and that means that there is going to have to be more than just RB Willis McGahee and the running game to beat Pittsburgh by better than a touchdown. So we are back to looking at Bledsoe. His numbers have improved a bit lately and that is why this gets a small wager.
My Online Betting Action: The Bills -9
Recent Trends
•PIT is 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings.
•Under is 7-1 in PIT last eight overall.
•Over is 7-0 in PIT last seven games in Jan.
•BUF is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 overall.
•Over is 8-1 in BUF last nine overall.
•Under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings.
The San Fransisco 49ers (2-13) at The New England Patriots (13-2)
Against the Spread: 49ers 6-9-0 | Patriots 10-3-2
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Patriots -13.5 -104 Over/Under 37u -106
Current High NFL Betting Line: Patriots -15 +115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Patriots -13 -110
Over/Under 37u to 40u EVEN to -110
Pat's have nothing to gain with a win. 49ers couldn't beat OSU on a good day. But covering 2 TD's from back-ups...?
This would be a no brainer, class A wager if it weren't for the fact that Tom Brady along with several other starters will probably not see more than a half of playing time. Against the 49ers however, a lot of damage can be done in 30 minutes.
Medium Wager because San Fransisco is so out-matched.
My Online Betting Action: The Patriots -13
Recent Trends
•SF is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
•SF is 2-7 ATS in their last nine overall.
•Over is 7-2 in SF last nine overall.
•NE is 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 overall.
•NE is 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 games in Jan.
•Under is 3-1 in the last four meetings.
The Kansas City Chiefs (7-8) at The San Diego Chargers (11-4)
Against the Spread: Chiefs 6-9-0 | Chargers 12-1-2 Best ATS in the League
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Chiefs -3 -108 Over/Under 54.5u -101
Current High NFL Betting Line: Chiefs -3.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Chiefs -3 -116 to -125
Over/Under 51.5u to 52u -110
Chargers are locked, taking the hard earned AFC West Title. Vermeil wants to end the season on a high note. Betting against a team with the best ATS is a hard call. Over maybe...?
Reason for a wager on this one is simple. The Chargers can score too.
Again no reason for a long description of the match-up.
KC wants to finish on a high note, getting it done is San Diego against the AFC West Title holders is not where you want to get your hopes up too high. That being said, they can score and quickly. Although Schottenheimer may not want the win bad enough to start Brees (although he hasn't ruled it out), he doesn't want to get blown out in their regular season finale in front of their fans.
Small Wager
My Online Betting Action: The Over 51.5
Recent Trends
•Over is 6-3 in the last nine meetings.
•Over is 8-2 in KC last 10 overall.
•Over is 13-4 in KC last 17 vs. AFC West.
•SD is 11-0-1 ATS in their last 12 overall.
•Over is 10-2 in SD last 12 home games.
•SD is 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings.
NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Picks of The Week 17
The Final Regular Season NFL Match-ups
These are the games that seem to have the most Wagering Value.
The Cincinnati Bengals (7-8) at The Philadelphia Eagles (13-2)
Against the Spread: Bengals 6-8-1 | Eagles 9-6-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Bengals -3 -101 Over/Under 41u +103
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bengals -3.5 -105 to -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bengals -3 -130
Over/Under 39u to 40.5u +105 to -110
I think the same applies to the St. Louis game. Value based on who won't be playing and Lewis wanting to go 8-8.
So here's the skinny. The Bengals need a 8-8 finish more than the Eagles need a win. Unfortunately QB Carson Palmer is slated as no. 2, which mean that Jon Kitna will probably start. Palmer may see some playing time in the second half, according to Head Coach Marvin Lewis. That remains to be seen. He did some practice drills with the first team but did not complete th 11-on-11 session. T Willie Anderson is listed as Probable but by all rights is good to go.
Expecting Lewis to put a team on the field with anything else but a win in mind seems unlikely. A .500 finish at least keeps up with last seasons numbers, a back-step could mean Bengals Pres, Mike Brown, getting more involved again. Something that no one in the locker room wants, least of all Lewis.
The Eagles are in much the same game mode as they were against St. Louis. Although the starters may see even less time on the field. RB Brian Westbrook is inactive, as is DE Jevon Kearse and OT Tra Thomas. QB Donovan McNabb will probably not play at all, Reid opting to be extra careful and split time between Koy Detmer (he looks like Martin Grammatica) and Jeff Blake. Others that may very well be missing from the line-up entire could be WR's Todd Pinkston and Freddie Mitchell, FS Brian Dawkins, ML Jeremiah Trotter and CB Lito Sheppard.
Bottom line is Andy Reid is playing for the ring and is going to protect those precious commodities that give him the best shout at it.
My Online Betting Action: The Bengals -2.5
Got Wager in before line change, it's now -3.5, but is still worthy a small to medium bet.
The Cleveland Browns (3-12) at The Houston Texans (7-8)
Against the Spread: Browns 5-10-0 | Texans 9-6-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Texans -10.5 -102 Over/Under 39u -102
Current High NFL Betting Line: Texans -10 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Texans -8.5 -110
Over/Under 39u -110
Texans, Maybe? -9.5 is a lot considering how streaky they are. Just the same this game may have value, Dom needs a .500 finish.
The Browns are backpedaling about as fast as a team can. They are on a 9 game losing streak that probably won't end in Texas. They have allowed an average of 33.6 points a game in their last 5 overall and have manage just 15.4 a game. QB Luke McCown numbers have been dismal at best and it's looks as though he will be the starter, as Holcomb is listed as questionable with his rib injury. RB Lee Suggs is in good shape as is William Green. But Cleveland needs to be in charge of the game for those guys to play a real role. That assumes an early lead for the Browns, something that just doesn't happen all that often.
The Browns do have a decent passing D (7th), but it is offset by the awful rushing D (31st), that means that the Texans RB, Domanick Davis, should be able to exploit that area.
Speaking of Defenses, Houston doesn't really have a great on at 29th overall, but they score points when they get turnovers. 12 points on 20 picks (tied for 3rd in the league in INT's) and 30 points on 10 forced fumbles. Compared to a total of 12 points scored defensively by the Browns, those look like stellar numbers.
The Texans offense, led by QB David Carr and RB Domanick Davis, has the talent to do very well and has been somewhat productive, although streaky, over the last 5 weeks. They have scored an average just under the 20 point mark while allowing about 15 a game. They have had to play tougher competition however. When you look at the games against sub .500 teams the margin of victory is 14.5 points. That's not counting the shut-out 21-0 win over then 8-6 Jacksonville Jaguars.
So the question really becomes one of can they win by that big a margin. If Cleveland had a better than 0-7 road record then you would question it with the Texans 3-4 home record.
Looking elsewhere, in Conference games the Texans are 6-5 while the Browns are 2-9. In Divisional Games Houston is 4-2 versus Cleveland's 2-4 record.
So with all these numbers in mind, the Texans get the win. As for covering 9 points, looking at how they have done recently against sub par teams it goes for Houston as well.
My Online Betting Action: The Texans -9
The Minnesota Vikings (8-7) at The Washington Redskins (5-10)
Against the Spread: Vikings 7-8-0 | Redskins 5-10-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Vikings -4 -108 Over/Under 41u -109
Current High NFL Betting Line: Vikings -4 -105 to -113
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Vikings -3.5 -110
Over/Under 40.5u to 41u -105 to -110
Minnesota clinches NFC playoff berth with win. The Redskins are in re-coupe mode. Minnesota is a wager, size yet undetermined.
The Vikings are in a must win game to assure themselves of a Wild Card playoff berth. If the numbers are correct they still have a shot if everything plays out perfectly with a loss, but I'm quite sure that Head Coach Mike Tice doesn't want his fate in the hands of other teams.
Minnesota has all the weapons on offense that you could ask for. QB Daunte Culpepper is well over 4000 yards, with 37 TD's to his 11 INT's. WR Randy Moss is a constant bother for defenses and the forced coverage to keep him at bay has allowed Nate Burleson, and Marcus Robinson to see a good chunk of passes thrown their way. The Four Headed running back beast has been sufficient with Michael Bennett, Mewelde Moore, Onterrio Smith and Moe Williams.
The Vikings don't have much of a defense, but then again Washington doesn't have much of an offense. Those numbers become pretty much a wash.
Joe Gibbs would like nothing more than the end the season on a high note, and he does have the defense to do it.
Giving up only 16.5 points a game puts them in the top 5 overall in Pts. Against. They are not scoring D however, producing just 12 points on 18 INT's and 12 forced fumbles. That defense is going to be hampered a bit with the loss of CB Fred Smoot who will not be playing, out with a kidney injury. How they are going to move things around in the secondary is anyones guess. You will probably see Walt Harris lined up on the right side opposite Bruleson/Robinson which is should be a favorable match-up for the Vikings. Rookie CB Garnell Wilds will be back-up to Harris, again advantage Minnesota.
The Redskins offense is still makeshift at best. QB Patrick Ramsey will start and by all appearances, RB Ladell Betts will get his first start of the season with Clinton Portis placed on IR. The WR's spots are healthy, but Ramsey has to have time to through the ball for them to come into play. Considering that he has been sacked 14 times since being back as the starter, let's you know that he is not getting the protection up front that he needs.
Considering what's a stake for the Vikings and the low line based on what had been a ball control offense and solid secondary of the Redskins, the Vikings seem to be a good Value Wager this week.
My Online Betting Action: The Vikings -3.5
The Atlanta Falcons (11-4) at The Seattle Seahawks (8-7)
Against the Spread: Falcons 6-8-1 | Seahawks 5-10-0
Game Time: 4:05 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Seahawks -5.5 -105 Over/Under 42.5u +101
Current High NFL Betting Line: Seahawks -6.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Seahawks -6 -105 to 110
Over/Under 42u to 42.5u -103 to -110
No Vick + Atlanta set for playoffs = no offense. Medium sized wager on Seattle -5.5.
The above appeared true until news late this week came out rumoring that QB Michael Vick may play. Both Vick and Mora are hush hush about it, but even if he does play it will be more in the passing capacity than using his legs. That means the TE Alge Crumpler out of the line up is going to be more of a factor. The reality is that if Vick isn't running the ball the offense just doesn't get much done.
On the other side of the ball, the Falcons may see CB Jason Webster back in the starting position. He will be amongst facing off at least some of the time against WR Darrell Jackson on the right side. This will be interesting to watch as Webster has not seen action in over a month and Jackson is a crafty route runner. CB Kevin Mathis has been upgraded to probable and will probably start. If he does, it will be on the right side and they will shift Webster over to the left, assuming he starts as well. It's a mess in the secondary know matter how you look at it. With CB's switching sides and question marks to boot.
Seattle can get the no. 4 seed and play host to the No. 5 seed (either Minnesota, Carolina or St. Louis) on Wild Card weekend. But they have at least clinched a playoff berth. The Division Title and being at home is what they seek now and that's pretty good motivation.
Up front on O, the Seahawks w/ FB Mack Strong back, should be able to
win the battle and allow for RB Shaun Alexander to do what he does best, score, yeah he runs too. Depending on whether or not Atlanta goes with their base personal this could be made a little easier with nickel and dime S Aaron Beasley playing more than usual, in which case it will be SS Bryan Scott sneaking up for the rush coverage instead of FS Cory Hall.
Seattle's lack-luster win last at home against Arizona should have lit a fire under this teams ***. If they have any hopes of going past the first round of the playoffs they need to get the momentum going now. With Atlanta already locked in place for their post season play, this looks like the Seahawks last chance to do that.
My Online Betting Action: The Seahawks -5.5
That's it for the games that I think have solid Value. Will have the “Questionable” match-ups posted shortly.
P.S. Apologies in advance for any blatant mistakes, typed this one out from notes in a hurry, so...
Time for a little Rose Bowl
These are the games that seem to have the most Wagering Value.
The Cincinnati Bengals (7-8) at The Philadelphia Eagles (13-2)
Against the Spread: Bengals 6-8-1 | Eagles 9-6-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Bengals -3 -101 Over/Under 41u +103
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bengals -3.5 -105 to -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bengals -3 -130
Over/Under 39u to 40.5u +105 to -110
I think the same applies to the St. Louis game. Value based on who won't be playing and Lewis wanting to go 8-8.
Recent Trends
•CIN is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
•Over is 4-1 in CIN last five overall.
•CIN is 3-0 ATS in their last three road games.
•Under is 11-3 in the Eagles last 14 overall.
•PHI is 0-3 ATS in their last three overall.
•PHI is 0-3 ATS in their last three games in Jan.
So here's the skinny. The Bengals need a 8-8 finish more than the Eagles need a win. Unfortunately QB Carson Palmer is slated as no. 2, which mean that Jon Kitna will probably start. Palmer may see some playing time in the second half, according to Head Coach Marvin Lewis. That remains to be seen. He did some practice drills with the first team but did not complete th 11-on-11 session. T Willie Anderson is listed as Probable but by all rights is good to go.
Expecting Lewis to put a team on the field with anything else but a win in mind seems unlikely. A .500 finish at least keeps up with last seasons numbers, a back-step could mean Bengals Pres, Mike Brown, getting more involved again. Something that no one in the locker room wants, least of all Lewis.
The Eagles are in much the same game mode as they were against St. Louis. Although the starters may see even less time on the field. RB Brian Westbrook is inactive, as is DE Jevon Kearse and OT Tra Thomas. QB Donovan McNabb will probably not play at all, Reid opting to be extra careful and split time between Koy Detmer (he looks like Martin Grammatica) and Jeff Blake. Others that may very well be missing from the line-up entire could be WR's Todd Pinkston and Freddie Mitchell, FS Brian Dawkins, ML Jeremiah Trotter and CB Lito Sheppard.
Bottom line is Andy Reid is playing for the ring and is going to protect those precious commodities that give him the best shout at it.
My Online Betting Action: The Bengals -2.5
Got Wager in before line change, it's now -3.5, but is still worthy a small to medium bet.
The Cleveland Browns (3-12) at The Houston Texans (7-8)
Against the Spread: Browns 5-10-0 | Texans 9-6-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Texans -10.5 -102 Over/Under 39u -102
Current High NFL Betting Line: Texans -10 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Texans -8.5 -110
Over/Under 39u -110
Texans, Maybe? -9.5 is a lot considering how streaky they are. Just the same this game may have value, Dom needs a .500 finish.
The Browns are backpedaling about as fast as a team can. They are on a 9 game losing streak that probably won't end in Texas. They have allowed an average of 33.6 points a game in their last 5 overall and have manage just 15.4 a game. QB Luke McCown numbers have been dismal at best and it's looks as though he will be the starter, as Holcomb is listed as questionable with his rib injury. RB Lee Suggs is in good shape as is William Green. But Cleveland needs to be in charge of the game for those guys to play a real role. That assumes an early lead for the Browns, something that just doesn't happen all that often.
The Browns do have a decent passing D (7th), but it is offset by the awful rushing D (31st), that means that the Texans RB, Domanick Davis, should be able to exploit that area.
Speaking of Defenses, Houston doesn't really have a great on at 29th overall, but they score points when they get turnovers. 12 points on 20 picks (tied for 3rd in the league in INT's) and 30 points on 10 forced fumbles. Compared to a total of 12 points scored defensively by the Browns, those look like stellar numbers.
The Texans offense, led by QB David Carr and RB Domanick Davis, has the talent to do very well and has been somewhat productive, although streaky, over the last 5 weeks. They have scored an average just under the 20 point mark while allowing about 15 a game. They have had to play tougher competition however. When you look at the games against sub .500 teams the margin of victory is 14.5 points. That's not counting the shut-out 21-0 win over then 8-6 Jacksonville Jaguars.
So the question really becomes one of can they win by that big a margin. If Cleveland had a better than 0-7 road record then you would question it with the Texans 3-4 home record.
Looking elsewhere, in Conference games the Texans are 6-5 while the Browns are 2-9. In Divisional Games Houston is 4-2 versus Cleveland's 2-4 record.
So with all these numbers in mind, the Texans get the win. As for covering 9 points, looking at how they have done recently against sub par teams it goes for Houston as well.
My Online Betting Action: The Texans -9
Recent Trends
•CLE is 1-7 ATS in their last eight overall.
•Over is 4-1 in the Browns last five on the road.
•Over is 2-0 in CLE previous two games in Jan.
•HOU is 5-1 ATS in their last six overall.
•Under is 7-2-1 in HOU last 10 overall.
•HOU is 8-4 ATS in their last 12 on grass.
The Minnesota Vikings (8-7) at The Washington Redskins (5-10)
Against the Spread: Vikings 7-8-0 | Redskins 5-10-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Vikings -4 -108 Over/Under 41u -109
Current High NFL Betting Line: Vikings -4 -105 to -113
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Vikings -3.5 -110
Over/Under 40.5u to 41u -105 to -110
Minnesota clinches NFC playoff berth with win. The Redskins are in re-coupe mode. Minnesota is a wager, size yet undetermined.
The Vikings are in a must win game to assure themselves of a Wild Card playoff berth. If the numbers are correct they still have a shot if everything plays out perfectly with a loss, but I'm quite sure that Head Coach Mike Tice doesn't want his fate in the hands of other teams.
Minnesota has all the weapons on offense that you could ask for. QB Daunte Culpepper is well over 4000 yards, with 37 TD's to his 11 INT's. WR Randy Moss is a constant bother for defenses and the forced coverage to keep him at bay has allowed Nate Burleson, and Marcus Robinson to see a good chunk of passes thrown their way. The Four Headed running back beast has been sufficient with Michael Bennett, Mewelde Moore, Onterrio Smith and Moe Williams.
The Vikings don't have much of a defense, but then again Washington doesn't have much of an offense. Those numbers become pretty much a wash.
Joe Gibbs would like nothing more than the end the season on a high note, and he does have the defense to do it.
Giving up only 16.5 points a game puts them in the top 5 overall in Pts. Against. They are not scoring D however, producing just 12 points on 18 INT's and 12 forced fumbles. That defense is going to be hampered a bit with the loss of CB Fred Smoot who will not be playing, out with a kidney injury. How they are going to move things around in the secondary is anyones guess. You will probably see Walt Harris lined up on the right side opposite Bruleson/Robinson which is should be a favorable match-up for the Vikings. Rookie CB Garnell Wilds will be back-up to Harris, again advantage Minnesota.
The Redskins offense is still makeshift at best. QB Patrick Ramsey will start and by all appearances, RB Ladell Betts will get his first start of the season with Clinton Portis placed on IR. The WR's spots are healthy, but Ramsey has to have time to through the ball for them to come into play. Considering that he has been sacked 14 times since being back as the starter, let's you know that he is not getting the protection up front that he needs.
Considering what's a stake for the Vikings and the low line based on what had been a ball control offense and solid secondary of the Redskins, the Vikings seem to be a good Value Wager this week.
My Online Betting Action: The Vikings -3.5
Recent Trends
•Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
•MIN is 1-5 ATS in their last six overall.
•Over is 5-1 in MIN last six road games.
•Under is 14-5 in WAS last 19 overall.
•WAS is 4-1 ATS in their last five overall.
•WAS is 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings.
The Atlanta Falcons (11-4) at The Seattle Seahawks (8-7)
Against the Spread: Falcons 6-8-1 | Seahawks 5-10-0
Game Time: 4:05 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Seahawks -5.5 -105 Over/Under 42.5u +101
Current High NFL Betting Line: Seahawks -6.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Seahawks -6 -105 to 110
Over/Under 42u to 42.5u -103 to -110
No Vick + Atlanta set for playoffs = no offense. Medium sized wager on Seattle -5.5.
The above appeared true until news late this week came out rumoring that QB Michael Vick may play. Both Vick and Mora are hush hush about it, but even if he does play it will be more in the passing capacity than using his legs. That means the TE Alge Crumpler out of the line up is going to be more of a factor. The reality is that if Vick isn't running the ball the offense just doesn't get much done.
On the other side of the ball, the Falcons may see CB Jason Webster back in the starting position. He will be amongst facing off at least some of the time against WR Darrell Jackson on the right side. This will be interesting to watch as Webster has not seen action in over a month and Jackson is a crafty route runner. CB Kevin Mathis has been upgraded to probable and will probably start. If he does, it will be on the right side and they will shift Webster over to the left, assuming he starts as well. It's a mess in the secondary know matter how you look at it. With CB's switching sides and question marks to boot.
Seattle can get the no. 4 seed and play host to the No. 5 seed (either Minnesota, Carolina or St. Louis) on Wild Card weekend. But they have at least clinched a playoff berth. The Division Title and being at home is what they seek now and that's pretty good motivation.
Up front on O, the Seahawks w/ FB Mack Strong back, should be able to
win the battle and allow for RB Shaun Alexander to do what he does best, score, yeah he runs too. Depending on whether or not Atlanta goes with their base personal this could be made a little easier with nickel and dime S Aaron Beasley playing more than usual, in which case it will be SS Bryan Scott sneaking up for the rush coverage instead of FS Cory Hall.
Seattle's lack-luster win last at home against Arizona should have lit a fire under this teams ***. If they have any hopes of going past the first round of the playoffs they need to get the momentum going now. With Atlanta already locked in place for their post season play, this looks like the Seahawks last chance to do that.
My Online Betting Action: The Seahawks -5.5
Recent Trends
•ATL is 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings in SEA.
•Under is 10-3 in ATL last 13 overall.
•ATL is 2-5 ATS in their last seven games in Jan.
•SEA is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 overall.
•Over is 10-2 in SEA last 12 overall.
•Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
That's it for the games that I think have solid Value. Will have the “Questionable” match-ups posted shortly.
P.S. Apologies in advance for any blatant mistakes, typed this one out from notes in a hurry, so...
Time for a little Rose Bowl
Thursday, December 30, 2004
NFL Pick of the Week Against the Spread - Betting Lines Week 17
The Final Regular Season NFL Match-ups
The Cincinnati Bengals (7-8) at The Philadelphia Eagles (13-2)
Against the Spread: Bengals 6-8-1 | Eagles 9-6-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Bengals -3 -101 Over/Under 41u +103
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bengals -3 +105 to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bengals -2.5 -110
Over/Under 39u to 40.5u +105 to -110
I think the same applies to the St. Louis game. Value based on who won't be playing and Lewis wanting to go 8-8.
The Cleveland Browns (3-12) at The Houston Texans (7-8)
Against the Spread: Browns 5-10-0 | Texans 9-6-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Texans -10.5 -102 Over/Under 39u -102
Current High NFL Betting Line: Texans -11 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Texans -9.5 -108 to -110
Over/Under 39u -110
Texans, Maybe? -9.5 is a lot considering how streaky they are. Just the same this game may have value, Dom needs a .500 finish.
The Detroit Lions (6-9) at The Tennessee Titans (4-11)
Against the Spread: Lions 8-7-0 | Titans 4-11-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Lions -3 -109 Over/Under 45u -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Lions -3 EVEN to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Lions -2.5 -115
Over/Under 44.5u to 46u -105 to -110
There may be value in Detroit, still crunching numbers.
The Green Bay Packers (9-6) at The Chicago Bears (5-10)
Against the Spread: Packers 6-9-0 | Bears 5-10-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Bears -3 -105 Over/Under 34u +101
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bears -3 -110 to -120
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bears -3 -110 to -120
Over/Under 34u to 35.5u +102 to -110
Another tricky one, GB has nothing to gain by winning. Chicago may play to win or play to evaluate.
The Miami Dolphins (4-11) at The Baltimore Ravens (8-7)
Against the Spread: Dolphins 6-9-0 | Ravens 9-6-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Ravens -10 +101 Over/Under 34.5u +101
Current High NFL Betting Line: Ravens -12.5 +105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Ravens -10 -110
Over/Under 33.5u to 34u -105 to -110
Baltimore still has a chance at post season. They have to win, but that's not enough. They also need 3 other teams to lose.
The Minnesota Vikings (8-7) at The Washington Redskins (5-10)
Against the Spread: Vikings 7-8-0 | Redskins 5-10-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Vikings -4 -108 Over/Under 41u -109
Current High NFL Betting Line: Vikings -4 +101 to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Vikings -3.5 -110
Over/Under 40.5u to 41u -105 to -110
Minnesota clinches NFC playoff berth with win. The Redskins are in re-coupe mode. Minnesota is a wager, size yet undetermined.
The New Orleans Saints (7-8) at The Carolina Panthers (7-8)
Against the Spread: Saints 7-8-0 | Panthers 59-5-1
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Panthers -8 -106 Over/Under46u -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Panthers -9 +105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Panthers -7.5 -110 to -120
Over/Under 45.5u to 46u -105 to -110
New Orleans is another must win. They are just too poorly coached to wager on them, even with those kind of points.
The N.Y. Jets (10-5) at The St. Louis Rams (7-8)
Against the Spread: Jets 8-6-1 | Rams 4-10-1
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Jets -3 +109 Over/Under 43u +109
Current High NFL Betting Line: Jets -3.5 -101 to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Jets -3 -110 to -125
Over/Under 43u to 43.5u -105 to -110
Both the teams are in a “must win” to see the post season. The Jets are in the drivers seat however, as they can seal their fate either way in this game.
The Pittsburgh Steelers (14-1) at The Buffalo Bills (96)
Against the Spread: Steelers 9-5-1 | Bills 11-4-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Bills -9 -110 Over/Under 34u +102
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bills -10 +105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bills -9 -108 to -110
Over/Under 34u -105 to -110
The Steelers gain nothing by a win, as everything is set for them. Bills win and have a shot, but that's a lot to cover against the D of the Steelers.
The San Fransisco 49ers (2-13) at The New England Patriots (13-2)
Against the Spread: 49ers 6-9-0 | Patriots 10-3-2
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Patriots -13.5 -104 Over/Under 37u -106
Current High NFL Betting Line: Patriots -15 +115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Patriots -13.5 -110
Over/Under 37u to 40u EVEN to -110
Pat's have nothing to gain with a win. 49ers couldn't beat OSU on a good day. But covering 2 TD's from back-ups...?
The Atlanta Falcons (11-4) at The Seattle Seahawks (8-7)
Against the Spread: Falcons 6-8-1 | Seahawks 5-10-0
Game Time: 4:05 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Seahawks -5.5 -105 Over/Under 42.5u +101
Current High NFL Betting Line: Seahawks -6 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Seahawks -5 -103
Over/Under 42u to 42.5u -103 to -110
No Vick + Atlanta set for playoffs = no offense. Medium sized wager on Seattle -5.5.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-10) at The Arizona Cardinals (5-10)
Against the Spread: Buccaneers 5-8-2 | Cardinals 8-7-0
Game Time: 4:05 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Cardinals -3.5 +107 Over/Under 38u +101
Current High NFL Betting Line: Cardinals -3.5 +105 to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Cardinals -3 -110 to -125
Over/Under 37.5u to 38u +101 to -110
Nothing but pride riding on this game. Tampa is on a 3 game skid while Arizona looks tough.
The Indianapolis Colts (12-3) at The Denver Broncos (9-6)
Against the Spread: Colts 9-5-1 | Broncos 5-7-3
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Broncos -9 -101 Over/Under 44.5u -112
Current High NFL Betting Line: Broncos -10 +120
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Broncos -8.5 -110
Over/Under 34u to 34.5u -110
Colts are locked at No. 3 seed with the AFC South Title. Denver can clinch with win, but wagering on that is a whole other matter. Denver's just too streaky to lay off those kind of points.
The Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7) at The Oakland Raiders (5-10)
Against the Spread: Jaguars 9-6-0 | Raiders 6-9-0
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: OTB Over/Under OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current Low NFL Betting Line: OTB
Over/Under OTB
IF one could place a bet online, Jag's still have a shot at the post-season with a win. So if you could bet with Mirage or Caesars at -1.5...
The Kansas City Chiefs (7-8) at The San Diego Chargers (11-4)
Against the Spread: Chiefs 6-9-0 | Chargers 12-1-2 Best ATS in the League
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Chiefs -3 -108 Over/Under 54.5u -101
Current High NFL Betting Line: Chiefs -3.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Chiefs -3 -116 to -125
Over/Under 53.5u to 54u EVEN to -110
Chargers are locked, taking the hard earned AFC West Title. Vermeil wants to end the season on a high note. Betting against a team with the best ATS is a hard call. Over maybe...?
The Dallas Cowboys (6-9) at The N.Y. Giants (5-10)
Against the Spread: Cowboys 7-8-0 | Giants 7-8-0
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET ESPN Sunday Night Football
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Giants -3 +107 Over/Under 37.5u -111
Current High NFL Betting Line: Giants -3 EVEN to +110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Giants -2.5 -105 to -110
Over/Under 37.5u to 38u -110
Last game of the season for both teams. Giants lost a heart breaker to Cincinnati (sans Palmer) last week, while the Cowboys got a victory over the stout D of Washington. Finding value in this game is like trying to find a needle in a haystack.
The Cincinnati Bengals (7-8) at The Philadelphia Eagles (13-2)
Against the Spread: Bengals 6-8-1 | Eagles 9-6-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Bengals -3 -101 Over/Under 41u +103
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bengals -3 +105 to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bengals -2.5 -110
Over/Under 39u to 40.5u +105 to -110
I think the same applies to the St. Louis game. Value based on who won't be playing and Lewis wanting to go 8-8.
Recent Trends
•CIN is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
•Over is 4-1 in CIN last five overall.
•CIN is 3-0 ATS in their last three road games.
•Under is 11-3 in the Eagles last 14 overall.
•PHI is 0-3 ATS in their last three overall.
•PHI is 0-3 ATS in their last three games in Jan.
The Cleveland Browns (3-12) at The Houston Texans (7-8)
Against the Spread: Browns 5-10-0 | Texans 9-6-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Texans -10.5 -102 Over/Under 39u -102
Current High NFL Betting Line: Texans -11 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Texans -9.5 -108 to -110
Over/Under 39u -110
Texans, Maybe? -9.5 is a lot considering how streaky they are. Just the same this game may have value, Dom needs a .500 finish.
Recent Trends
•CLE is 1-7 ATS in their last eight overall.
•Over is 4-1 in the Browns last five on the road.
•Over is 2-0 in CLE previous two games in Jan.
•HOU is 5-1 ATS in their last six overall.
•Under is 7-2-1 in HOU last 10 overall.
•HOU is 8-4 ATS in their last 12 on grass.
The Detroit Lions (6-9) at The Tennessee Titans (4-11)
Against the Spread: Lions 8-7-0 | Titans 4-11-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Lions -3 -109 Over/Under 45u -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Lions -3 EVEN to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Lions -2.5 -115
Over/Under 44.5u to 46u -105 to -110
There may be value in Detroit, still crunching numbers.
Recent Trends
•DET is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
•DET is 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games.
•Under is 3-0 in DET last three games in Jan.
•TEN is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 overall.
•Over is 8-2 in TEN last 10 home games.
•Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
The Green Bay Packers (9-6) at The Chicago Bears (5-10)
Against the Spread: Packers 6-9-0 | Bears 5-10-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Bears -3 -105 Over/Under 34u +101
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bears -3 -110 to -120
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bears -3 -110 to -120
Over/Under 34u to 35.5u +102 to -110
Another tricky one, GB has nothing to gain by winning. Chicago may play to win or play to evaluate.
Recent Trends
•GB is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.
•GB is 2-5 ATS in their last seven overall.
•Over is 9-2 in GB last 11 overall.
•CHI is 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games.
•Under is 5-0 in CHI last five overall.
•Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
The Miami Dolphins (4-11) at The Baltimore Ravens (8-7)
Against the Spread: Dolphins 6-9-0 | Ravens 9-6-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Ravens -10 +101 Over/Under 34.5u +101
Current High NFL Betting Line: Ravens -12.5 +105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Ravens -10 -110
Over/Under 33.5u to 34u -105 to -110
Baltimore still has a chance at post season. They have to win, but that's not enough. They also need 3 other teams to lose.
Recent Trends
•MIA is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
•Over is 8-2 in MIA last 10 overall.
•MIA is 3-0 ATS in their last three road games.
•BAL is 5-2 ATS in their last seven at home.
•Over is 10-3 in BAL last 13 home games.
•Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
The Minnesota Vikings (8-7) at The Washington Redskins (5-10)
Against the Spread: Vikings 7-8-0 | Redskins 5-10-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Vikings -4 -108 Over/Under 41u -109
Current High NFL Betting Line: Vikings -4 +101 to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Vikings -3.5 -110
Over/Under 40.5u to 41u -105 to -110
Minnesota clinches NFC playoff berth with win. The Redskins are in re-coupe mode. Minnesota is a wager, size yet undetermined.
Recent Trends
•Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
•MIN is 1-5 ATS in their last six overall.
•Over is 5-1 in MIN last six road games.
•Under is 14-5 in WAS last 19 overall.
•WAS is 4-1 ATS in their last five overall.
•WAS is 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings.
The New Orleans Saints (7-8) at The Carolina Panthers (7-8)
Against the Spread: Saints 7-8-0 | Panthers 59-5-1
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Panthers -8 -106 Over/Under46u -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Panthers -9 +105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Panthers -7.5 -110 to -120
Over/Under 45.5u to 46u -105 to -110
New Orleans is another must win. They are just too poorly coached to wager on them, even with those kind of points.
Recent Trends
•Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
•Under is 6-1 in NO last seven overall.
•Saints are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games.
•CAR is 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine overall.
•Over is 7-2 in CAR last nine overall.
•CAR is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
The N.Y. Jets (10-5) at The St. Louis Rams (7-8)
Against the Spread: Jets 8-6-1 | Rams 4-10-1
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Jets -3 +109 Over/Under 43u +109
Current High NFL Betting Line: Jets -3.5 -101 to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Jets -3 -110 to -125
Over/Under 43u to 43.5u -105 to -110
Both the teams are in a “must win” to see the post season. The Jets are in the drivers seat however, as they can seal their fate either way in this game.
Recent Trends
•Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
•Under is 5-1 in NYJ last six overall.
•Jets are 4-2 ATS in their last six overall.
•Rams are 2-7 ATS in their last nine overall.
•Under is 4-0 in STL last four overall.
•STL is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.
The Pittsburgh Steelers (14-1) at The Buffalo Bills (96)
Against the Spread: Steelers 9-5-1 | Bills 11-4-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Bills -9 -110 Over/Under 34u +102
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bills -10 +105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bills -9 -108 to -110
Over/Under 34u -105 to -110
The Steelers gain nothing by a win, as everything is set for them. Bills win and have a shot, but that's a lot to cover against the D of the Steelers.
Recent Trends
•PIT is 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings.
•Under is 7-1 in PIT last eight overall.
•Over is 7-0 in PIT last seven games in Jan.
•BUF is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 overall.
•Over is 8-1 in BUF last nine overall.
•Under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings.
The San Fransisco 49ers (2-13) at The New England Patriots (13-2)
Against the Spread: 49ers 6-9-0 | Patriots 10-3-2
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Patriots -13.5 -104 Over/Under 37u -106
Current High NFL Betting Line: Patriots -15 +115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Patriots -13.5 -110
Over/Under 37u to 40u EVEN to -110
Pat's have nothing to gain with a win. 49ers couldn't beat OSU on a good day. But covering 2 TD's from back-ups...?
Recent Trends
•SF is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
•SF is 2-7 ATS in their last nine overall.
•Over is 7-2 in SF last nine overall.
•NE is 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 overall.
•NE is 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 games in Jan.
•Under is 3-1 in the last four meetings.
The Atlanta Falcons (11-4) at The Seattle Seahawks (8-7)
Against the Spread: Falcons 6-8-1 | Seahawks 5-10-0
Game Time: 4:05 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Seahawks -5.5 -105 Over/Under 42.5u +101
Current High NFL Betting Line: Seahawks -6 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Seahawks -5 -103
Over/Under 42u to 42.5u -103 to -110
No Vick + Atlanta set for playoffs = no offense. Medium sized wager on Seattle -5.5.
Recent Trends
•ATL is 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings in SEA.
•Under is 10-3 in ATL last 13 overall.
•ATL is 2-5 ATS in their last seven games in Jan.
•SEA is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 overall.
•Over is 10-2 in SEA last 12 overall.
•Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-10) at The Arizona Cardinals (5-10)
Against the Spread: Buccaneers 5-8-2 | Cardinals 8-7-0
Game Time: 4:05 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Cardinals -3.5 +107 Over/Under 38u +101
Current High NFL Betting Line: Cardinals -3.5 +105 to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Cardinals -3 -110 to -125
Over/Under 37.5u to 38u +101 to -110
Nothing but pride riding on this game. Tampa is on a 3 game skid while Arizona looks tough.
Recent Trends
•TB is 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 road games.
•Under is 18-8 in TB last 26 overall.
•TB is 3-0 ATS in their last three games in Jan.
•ARI is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games.
•Over is 9-3 in ARI last 12 overall.
•Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
The Indianapolis Colts (12-3) at The Denver Broncos (9-6)
Against the Spread: Colts 9-5-1 | Broncos 5-7-3
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Broncos -9 -101 Over/Under 44.5u -112
Current High NFL Betting Line: Broncos -10 +120
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Broncos -8.5 -110
Over/Under 34u to 34.5u -110
Colts are locked at No. 3 seed with the AFC South Title. Denver can clinch with win, but wagering on that is a whole other matter. Denver's just too streaky to lay off those kind of points.
Recent Trends
•Indy is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
•IND is 5-2 ATS in their last seven overall.
•Over is 12-6 in IND last 18 overall.
•DEN is 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 home games.
•Over is 7-3-2 in DEN last 12 at home.
•DEN is 0-3 ATS in their last three games in Jan.
The Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7) at The Oakland Raiders (5-10)
Against the Spread: Jaguars 9-6-0 | Raiders 6-9-0
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: OTB Over/Under OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current Low NFL Betting Line: OTB
Over/Under OTB
IF one could place a bet online, Jag's still have a shot at the post-season with a win. So if you could bet with Mirage or Caesars at -1.5...
Recent Trends
•Under is 2-0 in the previous two meetings.
•Under is 17-5 in JAC last 22 overall.
•Over is 3-0 in JAC last three games in Jan.
•OAK is 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games.
•Over is 7-2 in OAK last nine overall.
•OAK is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in Jan.
The Kansas City Chiefs (7-8) at The San Diego Chargers (11-4)
Against the Spread: Chiefs 6-9-0 | Chargers 12-1-2 Best ATS in the League
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Chiefs -3 -108 Over/Under 54.5u -101
Current High NFL Betting Line: Chiefs -3.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Chiefs -3 -116 to -125
Over/Under 53.5u to 54u EVEN to -110
Chargers are locked, taking the hard earned AFC West Title. Vermeil wants to end the season on a high note. Betting against a team with the best ATS is a hard call. Over maybe...?
Recent Trends
•Over is 6-3 in the last nine meetings.
•Over is 8-2 in KC last 10 overall.
•Over is 13-4 in KC last 17 vs. AFC West.
•SD is 11-0-1 ATS in their last 12 overall.
•Over is 10-2 in SD last 12 home games.
•SD is 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings.
The Dallas Cowboys (6-9) at The N.Y. Giants (5-10)
Against the Spread: Cowboys 7-8-0 | Giants 7-8-0
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET ESPN Sunday Night Football
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Giants -3 +107 Over/Under 37.5u -111
Current High NFL Betting Line: Giants -3 EVEN to +110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Giants -2.5 -105 to -110
Over/Under 37.5u to 38u -110
Last game of the season for both teams. Giants lost a heart breaker to Cincinnati (sans Palmer) last week, while the Cowboys got a victory over the stout D of Washington. Finding value in this game is like trying to find a needle in a haystack.
Recent Trends
•DAL is 4-1 ATS in their last five overall.
•Under is 4-1 in DAL last five overall.
•DAL is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games in Jan.
•NYG are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
•Under is 9-5 in NYG last 14 overall.
•Over is 3-0 in the last three meetings in NY.
Tuesday, December 28, 2004
NFL Pick of the Week Against the Spread - Opening Betting Lines Week 17
The Final Regular Season NFL Match-ups
The Cincinnati Bengals (7-8) at The Philadelphia Eagles (13-2)
Against the Spread: Bengals 6-8-1 | Eagles 9-6-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Bengals -3 -101 Over/Under 41u +103
The Cleveland Browns (3-12) at The Houston Texans (7-8)
Against the Spread: Browns 5-10-0 | Texans 9-6-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Texans -10.5 -102 Over/Under 39u -102
The Detroit Lions (6-9) at The Tennessee Titans (4-11)
Against the Spread: Lions 8-7-0 | Titans 4-11-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Lions -3 -109 Over/Under 45u -105
The Green Bay Packers (9-6) at The Chicago Bears (5-10)
Against the Spread: Packers 6-9-0 | Bears 5-10-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Bears -3 -105 Over/Under 34u +101
The Miami Dolphins (4-11) at The Baltimore Ravens (8-7)
Against the Spread: Dolphins 6-9-0 | Ravens 9-6-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Ravens -10 -+101 Over/Under 34.5u +101
The Minnesota Vikings (8-7) at The Washington Redskins (5-10)
Against the Spread: Vikings 7-8-0 | Redskins 5-10-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Vikings -4 -108 Over/Under 41u -109
The New Orleans Saints (7-8) at The Carolina Panthers (7-8)
Against the Spread: Saints 7-8-0 | Panthers 59-5-1
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Panthers -8 -106 Over/Under46u -105
The N.Y. Jets (10-5) at The St. Louis Rams (7-8)
Against the Spread: Jets 8-6-1 | Rams 4-10-1
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Jets -3 +109 Over/Under 43u +109
The Pittsburgh Steelers (14-1) at The Buffalo Bills (96)
Against the Spread: Steelers 9-5-1 | Bills 11-4-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Bills -9 -110 Over/Under 34u +102
The San Fransisco 49ers (2-13) at The New England Patriots (13-2)
Against the Spread: 49ers 6-9-0 | Patriots 10-3-2
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Patriots -13.5 -104 Over/Under 37u -106
The Atlanta Falcons (11-4) at The Seattle Seahawks (8-7)
Against the Spread: Falcons 6-8-1 | Seahawks 5-10-0
Game Time: 4:05 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Seahawks -5.5 -105 Over/Under 42.5u +101
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-10) at The Arizona Cardinals (5-10)
Against the Spread: Buccaneers 5-8-2 | Cardinals 8-7-0
Game Time: 4:05 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Cardinals -3.5 +107 Over/Under 38u +101
The Indianapolis Colts (12-3) at The Denver Broncos (9-6)
Against the Spread: Colts 9-5-1 | Broncos 5-7-3
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Broncos -9 -101 Over/Under 44.5u -112
The Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7) at The Oakland Raiders (5-10)
Against the Spread: Jaguars 9-6-0 | Raiders 6-9-0
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: OTB -3 -105 Over/Under OTB
Real curious to see what this line ends up at.
The Kansas City Chiefs (7-8) at The San Diego Chargers (11-4)
Against the Spread: Chiefs 6-9-0 | Chargers 12-1-2 Best ATS in the League
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Chiefs -3 -108 Over/Under 54.5u -101
The Dallas Cowboys (6-9) at The N.Y. Giants (5-10)
Against the Spread: Cowboys 7-8-0 | Giants 7-8-0
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET ESPN Sunday Night Football
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Giants -3 +107 Over/Under 37.5u -111
Not made any solid decisions on any games yet.
At first glance there are 4 that seem to have value:
Bengals over Eagles
Packers over Bears
Vikings over Redskins
Patriots over 49ers
Even these need closer inspection before any final decision.
Chack back for line changes and anything worth noting on this weekends games.
The Cincinnati Bengals (7-8) at The Philadelphia Eagles (13-2)
Against the Spread: Bengals 6-8-1 | Eagles 9-6-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Bengals -3 -101 Over/Under 41u +103
The Cleveland Browns (3-12) at The Houston Texans (7-8)
Against the Spread: Browns 5-10-0 | Texans 9-6-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Texans -10.5 -102 Over/Under 39u -102
The Detroit Lions (6-9) at The Tennessee Titans (4-11)
Against the Spread: Lions 8-7-0 | Titans 4-11-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Lions -3 -109 Over/Under 45u -105
The Green Bay Packers (9-6) at The Chicago Bears (5-10)
Against the Spread: Packers 6-9-0 | Bears 5-10-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Bears -3 -105 Over/Under 34u +101
The Miami Dolphins (4-11) at The Baltimore Ravens (8-7)
Against the Spread: Dolphins 6-9-0 | Ravens 9-6-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Ravens -10 -+101 Over/Under 34.5u +101
The Minnesota Vikings (8-7) at The Washington Redskins (5-10)
Against the Spread: Vikings 7-8-0 | Redskins 5-10-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Vikings -4 -108 Over/Under 41u -109
The New Orleans Saints (7-8) at The Carolina Panthers (7-8)
Against the Spread: Saints 7-8-0 | Panthers 59-5-1
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Panthers -8 -106 Over/Under46u -105
The N.Y. Jets (10-5) at The St. Louis Rams (7-8)
Against the Spread: Jets 8-6-1 | Rams 4-10-1
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Jets -3 +109 Over/Under 43u +109
The Pittsburgh Steelers (14-1) at The Buffalo Bills (96)
Against the Spread: Steelers 9-5-1 | Bills 11-4-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Bills -9 -110 Over/Under 34u +102
The San Fransisco 49ers (2-13) at The New England Patriots (13-2)
Against the Spread: 49ers 6-9-0 | Patriots 10-3-2
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Patriots -13.5 -104 Over/Under 37u -106
The Atlanta Falcons (11-4) at The Seattle Seahawks (8-7)
Against the Spread: Falcons 6-8-1 | Seahawks 5-10-0
Game Time: 4:05 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Seahawks -5.5 -105 Over/Under 42.5u +101
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-10) at The Arizona Cardinals (5-10)
Against the Spread: Buccaneers 5-8-2 | Cardinals 8-7-0
Game Time: 4:05 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Cardinals -3.5 +107 Over/Under 38u +101
The Indianapolis Colts (12-3) at The Denver Broncos (9-6)
Against the Spread: Colts 9-5-1 | Broncos 5-7-3
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Broncos -9 -101 Over/Under 44.5u -112
The Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7) at The Oakland Raiders (5-10)
Against the Spread: Jaguars 9-6-0 | Raiders 6-9-0
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: OTB -3 -105 Over/Under OTB
Real curious to see what this line ends up at.
The Kansas City Chiefs (7-8) at The San Diego Chargers (11-4)
Against the Spread: Chiefs 6-9-0 | Chargers 12-1-2 Best ATS in the League
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Chiefs -3 -108 Over/Under 54.5u -101
The Dallas Cowboys (6-9) at The N.Y. Giants (5-10)
Against the Spread: Cowboys 7-8-0 | Giants 7-8-0
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET ESPN Sunday Night Football
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Giants -3 +107 Over/Under 37.5u -111
Not made any solid decisions on any games yet.
At first glance there are 4 that seem to have value:
Bengals over Eagles
Packers over Bears
Vikings over Redskins
Patriots over 49ers
Even these need closer inspection before any final decision.
Chack back for line changes and anything worth noting on this weekends games.
Monday, December 27, 2004
NFL Against the Spread Online Betting MNF - Monday Night Football Week 16
Someone slipped me a Micky, I'm not responsible for last-nights post nor the stupid wager that I made.
ABC Monday Night Football
The Philadelphia Eagles (13-1) at The St. Louis Rams (6-8)
NFL Against the Spread: Eagles 9-5-0 | Rams 3-10-1
Game Time: 9:00 PM ET ABC MNF
Current High NFL Betting Line: Rams -3 -110 to -120
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Rams -1.5 -117
Over/Under 44u to 45u -100 to -110
No TO + everything in a nice package for Eagles = Rams Win?
The Eagles should be in rest and repair mode. They have the Division Title, first round bye and Home Field Advantage. They have already lost one key player in WR Terrell Owens, who is out for what amounts to be the rest of the season. WR Todd Pinkston is hurt, and with TO out, and nothing to be gained by a victory, it's highly unlikely that he will play at all. Their other go to guy, WR Freddie Mitchell, is listed as probable, but almost the same applies to him. It would be surprising to see anything more than a quarter or so from him. Fact is, anyone with an injury that is a starter will see little to no playing time. There is rumor that RB Brian Westbrook may not see any more carries until the playoffs.
Andy Reid is not stupid, he knows that without TO the Eagles offense dramatically changes. Reid is also wise enough to let better judgment win out over pride. He has already stated that none of his starters will be on the field much later than half-time. He knows that finishing 15-1 would be something that only three other teams have done, but he also sees the big picture. The Super Bowl. The Eagles have done what they needed do to to put themselves in the best possible position for the playoffs, now the most important thing is to go into the post season as healthy as possible, both offensively and defensively.
The Rams are in a must win situation. Not just tonight, but next week also if they hope to see playing time after Jan. 2nd. A victory over Philadelphia is a must. They lose tonight they are out. Period. Even winning out is not going assure them of anything. A victory tonight and next week, then a loss by Seattle to the Falcons next week and they would get in as the NFC West Division winners. They will still have several wild-card opportunities available even without a Seattle loss, but it all starts with a win tonight.
The Rams Injury list is getting better. QB Marc Bulger took snaps with the first team in practice, and although he didn't make any deep passes, was on the mark with the intermediate throws. Since this is a good portion of the trowing game, that had to please Martz. He will have his full compliment of receivers, in Isaac Bruce, Tory Holt, Shaun McDonald and Kevin Curtis. The only names with red crosses next to them are RB Steven Jackson and TE Brandon Manumaleuna.
So the advantage appears to go to the Rams. On the turf at home, with the speed they have, playing against a bunch of young players should result in win 1 of 2 to get them on the road to the playoffs.
Value isn't high, so a moderate wager is suggested.
My Online Betting Action: The Rams -2.5
As promised:
Someone slipped me a Micky, I'm not responsible for last-nights post nor the stupid wager that I made.
The Philadelphia Eagles (13-1) at The St. Louis Rams (6-8)
NFL Against the Spread: Eagles 9-5-0 | Rams 3-10-1
Game Time: 9:00 PM ET ABC MNF
Current High NFL Betting Line: Rams -3 -110 to -120
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Rams -1.5 -117
Over/Under 44u to 45u -100 to -110
No TO + everything in a nice package for Eagles = Rams Win?
The Eagles should be in rest and repair mode. They have the Division Title, first round bye and Home Field Advantage. They have already lost one key player in WR Terrell Owens, who is out for what amounts to be the rest of the season. WR Todd Pinkston is hurt, and with TO out, and nothing to be gained by a victory, it's highly unlikely that he will play at all. Their other go to guy, WR Freddie Mitchell, is listed as probable, but almost the same applies to him. It would be surprising to see anything more than a quarter or so from him. Fact is, anyone with an injury that is a starter will see little to no playing time. There is rumor that RB Brian Westbrook may not see any more carries until the playoffs.
Andy Reid is not stupid, he knows that without TO the Eagles offense dramatically changes. Reid is also wise enough to let better judgment win out over pride. He has already stated that none of his starters will be on the field much later than half-time. He knows that finishing 15-1 would be something that only three other teams have done, but he also sees the big picture. The Super Bowl. The Eagles have done what they needed do to to put themselves in the best possible position for the playoffs, now the most important thing is to go into the post season as healthy as possible, both offensively and defensively.
The Rams are in a must win situation. Not just tonight, but next week also if they hope to see playing time after Jan. 2nd. A victory over Philadelphia is a must. They lose tonight they are out. Period. Even winning out is not going assure them of anything. A victory tonight and next week, then a loss by Seattle to the Falcons next week and they would get in as the NFC West Division winners. They will still have several wild-card opportunities available even without a Seattle loss, but it all starts with a win tonight.
The Rams Injury list is getting better. QB Marc Bulger took snaps with the first team in practice, and although he didn't make any deep passes, was on the mark with the intermediate throws. Since this is a good portion of the trowing game, that had to please Martz. He will have his full compliment of receivers, in Isaac Bruce, Tory Holt, Shaun McDonald and Kevin Curtis. The only names with red crosses next to them are RB Steven Jackson and TE Brandon Manumaleuna.
So the advantage appears to go to the Rams. On the turf at home, with the speed they have, playing against a bunch of young players should result in win 1 of 2 to get them on the road to the playoffs.
Value isn't high, so a moderate wager is suggested.
My Online Betting Action: The Rams -2.5
Recent Trends
•PHI is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
•PHI is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. Conference Opponents.
•Under is 10-3 in the Eagles last 13 overall.
•Under is 4-2 in the last six meetings.
•STL is 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.
•Under is 3-0 in the Rams last three played in Dec.
As promised:
Anna Loves Monday Night Football
Sunday, December 26, 2004
NFL Against the Spread Online Betting ESPN Sunday Night Football
6 of 8 going into The Night Game. My San Diego wager wasn't a major loss as it was a small one made mainly because of the +250. Should have won that one. That game was decided by the Zebras in the second from my view.
The NFL ESPN Night Game
The Cleveland Browns (3-11) at The Miami Dolphins (3-11)
NFL Against the Spread: Browns 4-10-0 | Dolphins 6-8-0
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET ESPN
Current High NFL Betting Line: Dolphins -10 -100
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Dolphins -8 -110 to -117
Over/Under 40u to 40.5u +15 to -110
There is absolutely nothing riding on this game except dignity.
The Browns are a very bad team. Injury plagued on both sides of the ball from the beginning of the season and poor coaching has gotten them right where they deserve to be. Tied for dead last in the AFC.
Miami has been hit even worse in the injury/lost players column. They only real difference is that Wannstedt was a better coach than the Brown's Butch Davis. Dolphins are at least coming off a big win against the AFC East Title holding New England Patriots.
The Browns, on the other hand were handed their hats yet again. Last week by the Chargers.
Miami has kept the last several games, even their losses, relatively close. The Browns have not. Losing their last 4 by an average margin of 22 points.
Both Miami and Cleveland have terrible offenses, but the Dolphins O has at least shown some sparks of life. Plus they do have a decent D, at least against the passing game.
This is where dignity comes into play.
The players on the Dolphins team do not want to finish the season in last place. They have the harder of the two teams finishing schedules. They will be heading to Baltimore, they know that this is their best shot at getting win #4.
Cleveland is in complete disarray, and even if they really care about a fourth win, getting their “poop in a group” enough to beat Miami at home is along shot.
So, just for fun and since I have enough wiggle room to accept a small loss I'm going to do the unthinkable and lay a little action off on Miami's side.
My Online Betting Action: Two Team Teaser (6pts)The Dolphins & The Over -8(+6), Over 40(-6)
Be sure to drop back by for the MNF outlook and an Anna Surprise!
6 of 8 going into The Night Game. My San Diego wager wasn't a major loss as it was a small one made mainly because of the +250. Should have won that one. That game was decided by the Zebras in the second from my view.
The Cleveland Browns (3-11) at The Miami Dolphins (3-11)
NFL Against the Spread: Browns 4-10-0 | Dolphins 6-8-0
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET ESPN
Current High NFL Betting Line: Dolphins -10 -100
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Dolphins -8 -110 to -117
Over/Under 40u to 40.5u +15 to -110
There is absolutely nothing riding on this game except dignity.
The Browns are a very bad team. Injury plagued on both sides of the ball from the beginning of the season and poor coaching has gotten them right where they deserve to be. Tied for dead last in the AFC.
Miami has been hit even worse in the injury/lost players column. They only real difference is that Wannstedt was a better coach than the Brown's Butch Davis. Dolphins are at least coming off a big win against the AFC East Title holding New England Patriots.
The Browns, on the other hand were handed their hats yet again. Last week by the Chargers.
Miami has kept the last several games, even their losses, relatively close. The Browns have not. Losing their last 4 by an average margin of 22 points.
Both Miami and Cleveland have terrible offenses, but the Dolphins O has at least shown some sparks of life. Plus they do have a decent D, at least against the passing game.
This is where dignity comes into play.
The players on the Dolphins team do not want to finish the season in last place. They have the harder of the two teams finishing schedules. They will be heading to Baltimore, they know that this is their best shot at getting win #4.
Cleveland is in complete disarray, and even if they really care about a fourth win, getting their “poop in a group” enough to beat Miami at home is along shot.
So, just for fun and since I have enough wiggle room to accept a small loss I'm going to do the unthinkable and lay a little action off on Miami's side.
My Online Betting Action: Two Team Teaser (6pts)The Dolphins & The Over -8(+6), Over 40(-6)
Recent Trends
•CLE is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. Conference Opponents.
•CLE is 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.
•Over is 4-0 in the Browns last four on the road.
•Over is 4-0 in the Fins last four at home.
•Over is 8-1 in MIA's last nine games overall.
•MIA is 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
Be sure to drop back by for the MNF outlook and an Anna Surprise!
NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Picks of The Week 16
Sorry for the short post.
The NFL Sunday Match-Ups
The Buffalo Bills (8-6) at The San Fransisco 49ers (2-12)
NFL Against the Spread: Bills 10-4-0 | 49ers 6-8-0
Game Time: 4:305 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bills -13 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bills -11 -105 to -110
Over/Under 43u to 43.5u +105 to -110
This one has Bills written all over it.
Sory, No big post. Bills just so outclass the 49ers that there is no way to not take the value bet with this game. Even based on The Bills ATS it's a solid value wager.
My Online Betting Action: The Bills -10
The New England Patriots (12-2) at The N.Y. Jets (10-4)
NFL Against the Spread: Patriots 9-3-2 | Jets 8-5-1
Game Time: 4:05 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Patriots -3 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Patriots PICK -110
Over/Under 42u to 42.5u -101 to -110
Struggling to find a reason not to expect a rebound from Brady and Company, even at Jets.
Brady, as good as Jets D is, has too much at stake. His reputation not to mention the Pats' Positioning in the Seeding.
Smallish Bet.
My Online Betting Action: The Patriots -0
Sorry for the short post.
The Buffalo Bills (8-6) at The San Fransisco 49ers (2-12)
NFL Against the Spread: Bills 10-4-0 | 49ers 6-8-0
Game Time: 4:305 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bills -13 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bills -11 -105 to -110
Over/Under 43u to 43.5u +105 to -110
This one has Bills written all over it.
Sory, No big post. Bills just so outclass the 49ers that there is no way to not take the value bet with this game. Even based on The Bills ATS it's a solid value wager.
My Online Betting Action: The Bills -10
The New England Patriots (12-2) at The N.Y. Jets (10-4)
NFL Against the Spread: Patriots 9-3-2 | Jets 8-5-1
Game Time: 4:05 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Patriots -3 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Patriots PICK -110
Over/Under 42u to 42.5u -101 to -110
Struggling to find a reason not to expect a rebound from Brady and Company, even at Jets.
Brady, as good as Jets D is, has too much at stake. His reputation not to mention the Pats' Positioning in the Seeding.
Smallish Bet.
My Online Betting Action: The Patriots -0
Saturday, December 25, 2004
NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Picks of The Week 16
First a quick Shout Out to JRF from Breakaway Beach for the nice plug, glad you got that win!
2 of 3, Santa wasn't quite as nice as I had hoped.
The NFL Sunday Match-Ups
The Baltimore Ravens (8-6) at The Pittsburgh Steelers (413-1)
NFL Against the Spread: Ravens 9-5-0 | Steelers 8-5-1
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Steelers -6 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Steelers -4.5 -115
Over/Under 33.5u to 34u -105 to -110
Baltimore is in a “lose and out” situation, Steelers want the first round bye.
The Ravens are 8-6, and behind Denver as of the outcome of tonights game. That puts them in basically a win-out or leave scenario. With only 4 teams clinched in the AFC, figuring out the possible outcomes and who may or may not get in takes a mathematician. Bottom line, they lose they do not see the post season. That's motivation, and this needs it. After the Patriots snapped their 3 game win streak they have lost two of the last three, one of those to the Bengals at home.
Pittsburgh, by contrast, know that they are going to the playoffs. What they seek is the first round bye and Home Field advantage. They are the polar opposite of Baltimore having been on a winning streak since game 3. That said, they showed the weak side a little more with the close victory over the below average Giants last week.
Statistically the Steelers D is without reproach, allowing a very meager 15.7 points a game. They have the #1 rushing D, giving up only 80.9 yards on the ground and the #4 passing D with opposing QB's only getting an average of 177 passing yards against them. In addition to that the have a great Giveaway/Takeaway ratio at +12 and the don't squander all those opportunities. The defense has scored 42 points so far.
The offense isn't quite as stellar, but is not bad by any means. 23 points per game on a very balanced 171 passing and 151 rushing average. They have the 3rd best rushing game, and that's pretty incredible considering that RB Duce Staley has been in and out for a good portion of the year. Jerome Bettis, despite his age and what some might have thought about him early in the season, has gone above and beyond most expectations this year. The passing is what brings there overall ranking down to it's 19 seat (28th pass). Ben Roethlisberger is a rookie and has had his share of lumps as of late. This has kept him on a tight leash within the system, hence his numbers are not very high. He gets the job done, and hasn't “blown” one yet.
Baltimore has a stout and more balanced defense. They are 6th against the rush and 9th against the pass. Their Giveaway/Takeaway numbers aren't as good at +7, but they convert better, with the defense having 54 points to their credit at this point. The Ravens are just as miserly when it comes to giving up points, allowing only 16.1 per game. In fact they are just a notch or so below Pittsburgh in rushing and passing yards allowed at 100.1 and 189.5, respectively, per game.
The Ravens offense is only 3.1 points behind the Steelers at 20 per game. They too are as equally unimpressive in the passing game as they are impressive rushing the ball, with a rushing average of 128.7 but a meager 142.4 through the air. So that does put them behind ranking wise at 30th overall - 9th rush and 31st pass – but not that far behind.
There are two key things that make this game a goos wager. Pittsburgh is a perfect 7-0 at home and WR Plaxico Burress will return to duty. His presence on the field opens things up for both the passing game and the running game.
My Online Betting Action: The Steelers -4.5
The San Diego Chargers (8-6) at The Indianapolis Colts (4-10)
NFL Against the Spread: Chargers 11-1-2 | Colts 9-4-1
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Colts -8 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Colts -7 -105 to -110
Over/Under 57u to 57.5u -107 to -110
San Diego is hot for another win as the underdog.
Not going to bother with the stats because they are too obvious. San Diego is weak against the pass, the Colts are weak against everything.
The Chargers got back to the good old days. It was RB LaDainian Tomlinson doing his thing on the ground and QB Drew Brees Doing his thing in the air. TE Antonio Gates got out of his 1 game slump, snagging his 12th TD as he tied the league record.
This was all done in the snow at Cleveland.
The Chargers have been solid all season, have clinched a playoff berth and the Division Title in the AFC West. The win would move them to the number three seed and give them their best shot at a first round bye and home field advantage. It's not a likely case, but certainly more attainable than what Indianapolis is looking at.
The Colts are the number 4 seed and do have some motivation, but they rely more heavily on other games outcomes to change their situation. Even winning out would not secure a first round bye, as they would still need the Steelers to lose the next two and New England loses it's next two. That's highly unlikely.
There is also the fact that they have not been as offensively strong the last couple of games. With only 23 points scored at Houston and only 20 last week at home.
So even with the Chargers weakness against the passing game this should be a pretty close final.
Two ways on this game.
My Online Betting Action: The Chargers +7 & The Chargers M O +250
That's it for the early games. Need more time to number crunch for the other two games I have my eye on. Bills and Seattle.
Here are the lines on those two, picks will be up before the early games tomorrow.
The Buffalo Bills (8-6) at The San Fransisco 49ers (2-12)
NFL Against the Spread: Bills 10-4-0 | 49ers 6-8-0
Game Time: 4:305 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bills -13 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bills -11 -105 to -110
Over/Under 43u to 43.5u +105 to -110
This one has Bills written all over it.
Sory, No big post. Bills just so outclass the 49ers that there is no way to not take the value bet with this game. Even based on The Bills ATS it's a solid value wager.
My Online Betting Action: The Bills -10
The New England Patriots (12-2) at The N.Y. Jets (10-4)
NFL Against the Spread: Patriots 9-3-2 | Jets 8-5-1
Game Time: 4:05 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Patriots -3 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Patriots Pick -110
Over/Under 42u to 42.5u -101 to -110
Struggling to find a reason not to expect a rebound from Brady and Company, even at Jets.
Brady, as good as Jets D is, has too much at stake. His reputation not to mention the Pats' Positioning in the Seeding.
Smallish Bet.
My Online Betting Action: The Patriots -2
First a quick Shout Out to JRF from Breakaway Beach for the nice plug, glad you got that win!
2 of 3, Santa wasn't quite as nice as I had hoped.
The Baltimore Ravens (8-6) at The Pittsburgh Steelers (413-1)
NFL Against the Spread: Ravens 9-5-0 | Steelers 8-5-1
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Steelers -6 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Steelers -4.5 -115
Over/Under 33.5u to 34u -105 to -110
Baltimore is in a “lose and out” situation, Steelers want the first round bye.
The Ravens are 8-6, and behind Denver as of the outcome of tonights game. That puts them in basically a win-out or leave scenario. With only 4 teams clinched in the AFC, figuring out the possible outcomes and who may or may not get in takes a mathematician. Bottom line, they lose they do not see the post season. That's motivation, and this needs it. After the Patriots snapped their 3 game win streak they have lost two of the last three, one of those to the Bengals at home.
Pittsburgh, by contrast, know that they are going to the playoffs. What they seek is the first round bye and Home Field advantage. They are the polar opposite of Baltimore having been on a winning streak since game 3. That said, they showed the weak side a little more with the close victory over the below average Giants last week.
Statistically the Steelers D is without reproach, allowing a very meager 15.7 points a game. They have the #1 rushing D, giving up only 80.9 yards on the ground and the #4 passing D with opposing QB's only getting an average of 177 passing yards against them. In addition to that the have a great Giveaway/Takeaway ratio at +12 and the don't squander all those opportunities. The defense has scored 42 points so far.
The offense isn't quite as stellar, but is not bad by any means. 23 points per game on a very balanced 171 passing and 151 rushing average. They have the 3rd best rushing game, and that's pretty incredible considering that RB Duce Staley has been in and out for a good portion of the year. Jerome Bettis, despite his age and what some might have thought about him early in the season, has gone above and beyond most expectations this year. The passing is what brings there overall ranking down to it's 19 seat (28th pass). Ben Roethlisberger is a rookie and has had his share of lumps as of late. This has kept him on a tight leash within the system, hence his numbers are not very high. He gets the job done, and hasn't “blown” one yet.
Baltimore has a stout and more balanced defense. They are 6th against the rush and 9th against the pass. Their Giveaway/Takeaway numbers aren't as good at +7, but they convert better, with the defense having 54 points to their credit at this point. The Ravens are just as miserly when it comes to giving up points, allowing only 16.1 per game. In fact they are just a notch or so below Pittsburgh in rushing and passing yards allowed at 100.1 and 189.5, respectively, per game.
The Ravens offense is only 3.1 points behind the Steelers at 20 per game. They too are as equally unimpressive in the passing game as they are impressive rushing the ball, with a rushing average of 128.7 but a meager 142.4 through the air. So that does put them behind ranking wise at 30th overall - 9th rush and 31st pass – but not that far behind.
There are two key things that make this game a goos wager. Pittsburgh is a perfect 7-0 at home and WR Plaxico Burress will return to duty. His presence on the field opens things up for both the passing game and the running game.
My Online Betting Action: The Steelers -4.5
Recent Trends
•Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
•Under is 6-1 in the Ravens last seven away.
•BAL is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
•PIT is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
•Under is 6-1 in the Steelers seven games overall.
•PIT is 28-14 in 42 games with total 35pts or less.
The San Diego Chargers (8-6) at The Indianapolis Colts (4-10)
NFL Against the Spread: Chargers 11-1-2 | Colts 9-4-1
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Colts -8 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Colts -7 -105 to -110
Over/Under 57u to 57.5u -107 to -110
San Diego is hot for another win as the underdog.
Not going to bother with the stats because they are too obvious. San Diego is weak against the pass, the Colts are weak against everything.
The Chargers got back to the good old days. It was RB LaDainian Tomlinson doing his thing on the ground and QB Drew Brees Doing his thing in the air. TE Antonio Gates got out of his 1 game slump, snagging his 12th TD as he tied the league record.
This was all done in the snow at Cleveland.
The Chargers have been solid all season, have clinched a playoff berth and the Division Title in the AFC West. The win would move them to the number three seed and give them their best shot at a first round bye and home field advantage. It's not a likely case, but certainly more attainable than what Indianapolis is looking at.
The Colts are the number 4 seed and do have some motivation, but they rely more heavily on other games outcomes to change their situation. Even winning out would not secure a first round bye, as they would still need the Steelers to lose the next two and New England loses it's next two. That's highly unlikely.
There is also the fact that they have not been as offensively strong the last couple of games. With only 23 points scored at Houston and only 20 last week at home.
So even with the Chargers weakness against the passing game this should be a pretty close final.
Two ways on this game.
My Online Betting Action: The Chargers +7 & The Chargers M O +250
Recent Trends
•Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
•SD is 19-6 ATS in their last 25 played in a Dome.
•SD is 6-1 ATS in their last seven played away.
•IND has won the last three meetings ATS.
•Over is 14-5 in Colts last 19 vs. a winning team.
•IND is 5-2 ATS in their last seven at home.
That's it for the early games. Need more time to number crunch for the other two games I have my eye on. Bills and Seattle.
Here are the lines on those two, picks will be up before the early games tomorrow.
The Buffalo Bills (8-6) at The San Fransisco 49ers (2-12)
NFL Against the Spread: Bills 10-4-0 | 49ers 6-8-0
Game Time: 4:305 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bills -13 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bills -11 -105 to -110
Over/Under 43u to 43.5u +105 to -110
This one has Bills written all over it.
Sory, No big post. Bills just so outclass the 49ers that there is no way to not take the value bet with this game. Even based on The Bills ATS it's a solid value wager.
My Online Betting Action: The Bills -10
The New England Patriots (12-2) at The N.Y. Jets (10-4)
NFL Against the Spread: Patriots 9-3-2 | Jets 8-5-1
Game Time: 4:05 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Patriots -3 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Patriots Pick -110
Over/Under 42u to 42.5u -101 to -110
Struggling to find a reason not to expect a rebound from Brady and Company, even at Jets.
Brady, as good as Jets D is, has too much at stake. His reputation not to mention the Pats' Positioning in the Seeding.
Smallish Bet.
My Online Betting Action: The Patriots -2
Friday, December 24, 2004
NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Picks of The Week 16
1 for 1 so far. Let's see what Santa brings me tomorrow.
The NFL Saturday Match-Up
The Oakland Raiders (5-9) at The Kansas City Chiefs (6-8)
NFL Against the Spread: Raiders 5-9-0 | Chiefs 6-8-0
Game Time: 5:00 PM ET CBS
Current High NFL Betting Line: Chiefs -9 -100
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Chiefs -7.5 -110 to -117
Over/Under 58u to 59.5u -110
With The Chiefs still mathematically in the running there is at least something riding on this game.
Three weeks ago the Raiders returned home after a hard fought win over Denver in Mile High, with equally high hopes of another win against their Division rivals, Kansas City Chiefs. Those hopes were kept alive for 30 minutes as each team retired to the locker room at halftime with Oakland ahead by 10 points and little doubt that their manhandling of the Chiefs would continue for the remaining 30 minutes of the game. That began to fade within 4:37 of the second half.
After a rather dismal start to the game, QB Trent Green as well as back-up RB Larry Johnson began what was to be a nearly flawless second half, sparked by a 4 ½ minute beginning drive capped off by a five yard TD run by Johnson. Trent Green went 14 of 15 for 229 yards. This included a tie breaking, 70 yard strike to WR Eddie Kennison, with 124 ticks left on the clock. Larry Johnson ran for 118 yards on 20 carries and a rushing TD. He also caught 3 for 56 yards and a receiving touchdown.
But there was more to the Chiefs Come-From-Behind win.
Kansas City all but completely shutdown the Oakland offense, allowing QB Kerry Collins to lead his team on only one scoring drive late in the third quarter. That ended with the only points for Oakland in the second half, with a 26 yard TD pass from Collins to Ronald Curry 42 seconds into the 4th quarter. Collins had one more shot late in the 4th when he hooked up with John Stone for 18 yards and then an 11 yard pass to J.R. Redmond to bring the Raiders into KC territory with about a 1:30 left in the game. But Kansas Cities D came up big for the next four plays, breaking up passes intended for Jerry Porter, Stone and Doug Gabrial as well as sacking Collins on 2-10 for a 9 yard loss.
Oakland rebounded by getting blown out by Atlanta 35-10. Then picked up the 40-35 victory at home against the Titans.
Considering they entered the second half of the season 2-6, the fact that they are sitting at 5-9 is some redemption. They are .500 in their last six and with the exception of the Falcons game have been “in” each game.
The Chiefs are a mathematical possibility for post-season play in the incredibly tight AFC. They are on a three game winning streak, including last weeks pummeling of the Denver Broncos. Trent Green has stepped it up a notch with the absence of Priest Holmes as had RB Derrick Blaylock.
Blaylock, unfortunately for the Chiefs, will probably ot get the nod to start, but Larry Johnson will start and did pretty well against the Raiders in Oakland just a few weeks ago. WR Johnnie Morton will more than likely miss his second straight. What's worse, is the fact that Dante' Hall, who has been filling in for Morton, twisted an ankle during practice and is questionable for tomorrows game. Ever the optimist, Coach Dick Vermeil holds out hope that Hall will be ready to go come game-time. KC's hoping he is right. Depending on Chris Horn's game-time status, Samie Parker my get his 1st start of the season.
Moving on to the rest of injuries worth noting.
DE Vonnie Holliday will miss his second straight, this isn't as bad as it seems. Rookie Jared Allen leads the D in sacks with 8 from RDE, so the shoes have been amply filled.
Gout has Trent Green caught between a Fork and a hard place if 10 time Pro Bowler, OT Willie Roaf can't start. Pain in his feet have kept him out of two days of practice. This means that if he can't go, Trent's blind left side will be in the hands of two unproven commodities in Brett Williams and rookie Kevin Sampson.
On to the Stats:
The Raiders are mediocre across the board offensively. Averaging 20 points a game on a 326yds per game - 251 in the air and a dead last 74 rushing. Their defense is much worse, coming in last in average points against at 28.4. They allow 375 passing and 130 rushing per game. These are not numbers you want to have going up against an offense like that of the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Chiefs offensive numbers are very good. They are the second highest scoring team with an average per game total of 31.5 points. They get that via a league leading 415.5 yards a game – 264.2 in the air and 151.4 on the ground – this without Holmes for the past 4½ games.
The Chiefs are 3-4 both on the road and at home, so being in KC this season has not big as big of an advantage as it has been in past seasons. Oakland, on the other hand has been slightly worse on the road at 2-5.
Other points worth mentioning are the fact that the Chiefs are 2-2 in Divisional games, while Oakland is 1-4. KC is 5-5 in AFC match-ups to Oakland's 3-7.
So with all that nonsense in mind and the simple fact that the Chiefs are a more talented team with more at stake, with their hopes (even slim as the hopes may be) of post-season play on the line, this game is worth a couple of small wagers.
My Online Betting Action: The Chiefs -7 & The Over 59
The Over is based on the scoring ability of KC and the fact that their average totals over the last 8 games is 65.3. Additionaly the total has broken the 60 point mark in 6 of their last 8 and in all of their last four, including the loss to San Diego.
The Denver Broncos (8-6) at The Tennessee Titans (4-10)
NFL Against the Spread: Broncos 4-7-3 | Titans 4-10-0
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET ESPN NFL Saturday Night Game
Current High NFL Betting Line: Broncos -4.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Broncos -3.5 -115
Over/Under 50u to 50.5u -106 to -110
Not with the Popes money.
Even though Denver is in a must win situation tomorrow as well as next week to have any hopes of seeing the playoffs, their game play just doesn't give any value to this game from a wagering perspective.
The Titans are trying stuff and players out, knowing that their season will be over in two weeks. QB Billy Volek is being allowed to stretch his wings and throw the ball around. With RB Chris Brown sidelined, Antowain Smith will share duty with Robert Holcombe obviously. What isn't as obvious is RB Troy Fleming who is rumored to be seeing more carries the next couple of games.
These are all problems for a team in a situation like that of the Bronco's. They are going to be starting their best players, but may see a lot of unknowns (more play calling than players) on the field which can be very distracting. Particularly to defenses that haven't seen films on certain guys and have no idea what to expect from an offense that has nothing to lose by trying out some new material.
If you want some action on this game just for excitements sake, the Over/Under at 50 seems a bit high, so the Under may not be quite as bad as lighting your cigar with a Ben Franklin.
My Online Betting Action: None
Merry Christmas Everybody!
1 for 1 so far. Let's see what Santa brings me tomorrow.
The Oakland Raiders (5-9) at The Kansas City Chiefs (6-8)
NFL Against the Spread: Raiders 5-9-0 | Chiefs 6-8-0
Game Time: 5:00 PM ET CBS
Current High NFL Betting Line: Chiefs -9 -100
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Chiefs -7.5 -110 to -117
Over/Under 58u to 59.5u -110
With The Chiefs still mathematically in the running there is at least something riding on this game.
Three weeks ago the Raiders returned home after a hard fought win over Denver in Mile High, with equally high hopes of another win against their Division rivals, Kansas City Chiefs. Those hopes were kept alive for 30 minutes as each team retired to the locker room at halftime with Oakland ahead by 10 points and little doubt that their manhandling of the Chiefs would continue for the remaining 30 minutes of the game. That began to fade within 4:37 of the second half.
After a rather dismal start to the game, QB Trent Green as well as back-up RB Larry Johnson began what was to be a nearly flawless second half, sparked by a 4 ½ minute beginning drive capped off by a five yard TD run by Johnson. Trent Green went 14 of 15 for 229 yards. This included a tie breaking, 70 yard strike to WR Eddie Kennison, with 124 ticks left on the clock. Larry Johnson ran for 118 yards on 20 carries and a rushing TD. He also caught 3 for 56 yards and a receiving touchdown.
But there was more to the Chiefs Come-From-Behind win.
Kansas City all but completely shutdown the Oakland offense, allowing QB Kerry Collins to lead his team on only one scoring drive late in the third quarter. That ended with the only points for Oakland in the second half, with a 26 yard TD pass from Collins to Ronald Curry 42 seconds into the 4th quarter. Collins had one more shot late in the 4th when he hooked up with John Stone for 18 yards and then an 11 yard pass to J.R. Redmond to bring the Raiders into KC territory with about a 1:30 left in the game. But Kansas Cities D came up big for the next four plays, breaking up passes intended for Jerry Porter, Stone and Doug Gabrial as well as sacking Collins on 2-10 for a 9 yard loss.
Oakland rebounded by getting blown out by Atlanta 35-10. Then picked up the 40-35 victory at home against the Titans.
Considering they entered the second half of the season 2-6, the fact that they are sitting at 5-9 is some redemption. They are .500 in their last six and with the exception of the Falcons game have been “in” each game.
The Chiefs are a mathematical possibility for post-season play in the incredibly tight AFC. They are on a three game winning streak, including last weeks pummeling of the Denver Broncos. Trent Green has stepped it up a notch with the absence of Priest Holmes as had RB Derrick Blaylock.
Blaylock, unfortunately for the Chiefs, will probably ot get the nod to start, but Larry Johnson will start and did pretty well against the Raiders in Oakland just a few weeks ago. WR Johnnie Morton will more than likely miss his second straight. What's worse, is the fact that Dante' Hall, who has been filling in for Morton, twisted an ankle during practice and is questionable for tomorrows game. Ever the optimist, Coach Dick Vermeil holds out hope that Hall will be ready to go come game-time. KC's hoping he is right. Depending on Chris Horn's game-time status, Samie Parker my get his 1st start of the season.
Moving on to the rest of injuries worth noting.
DE Vonnie Holliday will miss his second straight, this isn't as bad as it seems. Rookie Jared Allen leads the D in sacks with 8 from RDE, so the shoes have been amply filled.
Gout has Trent Green caught between a Fork and a hard place if 10 time Pro Bowler, OT Willie Roaf can't start. Pain in his feet have kept him out of two days of practice. This means that if he can't go, Trent's blind left side will be in the hands of two unproven commodities in Brett Williams and rookie Kevin Sampson.
On to the Stats:
The Raiders are mediocre across the board offensively. Averaging 20 points a game on a 326yds per game - 251 in the air and a dead last 74 rushing. Their defense is much worse, coming in last in average points against at 28.4. They allow 375 passing and 130 rushing per game. These are not numbers you want to have going up against an offense like that of the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Chiefs offensive numbers are very good. They are the second highest scoring team with an average per game total of 31.5 points. They get that via a league leading 415.5 yards a game – 264.2 in the air and 151.4 on the ground – this without Holmes for the past 4½ games.
The Chiefs are 3-4 both on the road and at home, so being in KC this season has not big as big of an advantage as it has been in past seasons. Oakland, on the other hand has been slightly worse on the road at 2-5.
Other points worth mentioning are the fact that the Chiefs are 2-2 in Divisional games, while Oakland is 1-4. KC is 5-5 in AFC match-ups to Oakland's 3-7.
So with all that nonsense in mind and the simple fact that the Chiefs are a more talented team with more at stake, with their hopes (even slim as the hopes may be) of post-season play on the line, this game is worth a couple of small wagers.
My Online Betting Action: The Chiefs -7 & The Over 59
The Over is based on the scoring ability of KC and the fact that their average totals over the last 8 games is 65.3. Additionaly the total has broken the 60 point mark in 6 of their last 8 and in all of their last four, including the loss to San Diego.
Recent Trends
•Over is 5-2 in the Raiders last seven on the road.
•OAK is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
•OAK is 1-7 ATS as a road dog of 7.5-10pts.
•Over is 10-2 in the Chiefs last 12 played in Dec.
•Over is 12-4 in KC's last 16 vs. Div. Opponents.
•KC is 3-0 ATS in December games this season.
The Denver Broncos (8-6) at The Tennessee Titans (4-10)
NFL Against the Spread: Broncos 4-7-3 | Titans 4-10-0
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET ESPN NFL Saturday Night Game
Current High NFL Betting Line: Broncos -4.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Broncos -3.5 -115
Over/Under 50u to 50.5u -106 to -110
Not with the Popes money.
Even though Denver is in a must win situation tomorrow as well as next week to have any hopes of seeing the playoffs, their game play just doesn't give any value to this game from a wagering perspective.
The Titans are trying stuff and players out, knowing that their season will be over in two weeks. QB Billy Volek is being allowed to stretch his wings and throw the ball around. With RB Chris Brown sidelined, Antowain Smith will share duty with Robert Holcombe obviously. What isn't as obvious is RB Troy Fleming who is rumored to be seeing more carries the next couple of games.
These are all problems for a team in a situation like that of the Bronco's. They are going to be starting their best players, but may see a lot of unknowns (more play calling than players) on the field which can be very distracting. Particularly to defenses that haven't seen films on certain guys and have no idea what to expect from an offense that has nothing to lose by trying out some new material.
If you want some action on this game just for excitements sake, the Over/Under at 50 seems a bit high, so the Under may not be quite as bad as lighting your cigar with a Ben Franklin.
My Online Betting Action: None
Recent Trends
•Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.
•Under is 6-1 in the Broncos last seven away.
•DEN is 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight overall.
•TEN is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
•Over is 5-1 in TEN's six vs. AFC West Opponents.
•TEN is 1-7 ATS in their last eight played in Dec.
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