Thursday, September 23, 2004

NFL Against the Spread


Houston(0-2) at Kansas City(0-2), Kansas City Chiefs –7.5. Return
Where do I even begin with this one? Well Let’s start with the obvious, Priest Holmes is listed as questionable for Sundays game. Now if I know Dick (I don’t, but let’s let me think I do) he will be ultra careful with Holmes this early in the season. Now take into account that Houston has SOME offense and that without Holmes KC has, well, NONE. I really like Houston +7.5-8. Keep in mind that they only lost by 7 to a pretty decent offense in the San Diego Chargers last week and The Chiefs defense is ranked 27th overall. I wouldn’t bet the bank (it’s just to early in the season for big bets) but this gambler's going to his favorite Online Casino for a NFL betting on this one.
Side Note: Houston is 10-3 Against The Spread (ATS) last 13 after two or more loses.


Jacksonville(2-0) at Tennessee(1-1), Tennessee –5.5. Return
This is going to be a tight, hard fought game. They both have injuries that are going to affect the game, but I think that they are “off-setting” (no pun intended). I don't think that I would put a wager on the spread for either team but I must say that if you're going to do a little NFL betting on this one, taking the under at 36 points is definitely not out of the question.
Side Notes: Under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings, Under is 8-1 in JAX's last nine games overall, Under is 5-1 in Titans last six played in Sept.

New Orleans(1-1) at St. Louis(1-1), St. Louis -7. Return
What can I say about this one. St. Louis Sucks, period. They have only covered the spread 3 times in their last 10 games and not even come close in their first 2 this season. Marc Bulger looks worse every time he steps out on the field and Marshall Faulk is in his twilight years( wink wink) New Orleans on the other hand looks to be improving, with a come from behind win against San Fransisco last week after losing The Duce, I have hopes for them yet. That being said I would caution against this game, just too many variables. But if you have to have NFL betting action, take New Orleans with the points.
Side Notes: Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings, Over is 10-4 in the Rams last 14 overall, NO is 1-6 ATS in the last seven played in Sept.

Philadelphia(2-0) at Detroit(2-0), Detroit +4.5. Return
Now this one is trouble! We all know what The Eagles can do offensively with weapons like Donovan McNabb, Terrell Owens, L.J. Smith and Brian Westbrook (combined for nearly 150yds.). But they also proved what a dynamite packed defense they have with their showing against Daunte, Moss and crew of number two ranked offense of the Minnesota Vikings. Now on to the Detroit Lions (are they roaring for real?), Quarterback Joey Harrington is the number 9th ranked QB with a passer rating of 93.8. That ain't not bad. Plus he showed no signs of giving up when Charles Rogers went down (again) with broken collarbone, immediately finding a home for the pigskin in the awaiting arms of rookie Wide Receiver Roy Williams (I love this guy) Hitting him four times for 73 yards and two strikes in the end-zone that Williams made look easy.
That being said they played the Houston Texans, 10th ranked offense, the Eagles are not a 10th ranked offense...the Lions are on a roll and have momentum, but so do the Eagles and although I think this is going to be a great game to watch, I don't think that Detroit can overcome their losses on the defensive side of the ball and come up with a victory. If I were doing any online NFL betting on this one (which I'm not) I would have to go with The Philadelphia Eagles -4.5. The Over Under at 44.5 is a crap shoot at best, wouldn't touch it either way.
Side Notes: PHI are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 overall, Eagles have won the last three meetings ATS.

Pittsburgh(1-1) at Miami(0-2), Miami -1. Return
Can you say coin toss. Despite all the injuries (just too damn many to list) and troubles that have plagued The Dolphins they are still a defensive powerhouse when it comes to the passing game. Herein lies the problem, The Dolphins give up an average of 138 yards a game rushing and The Steelers average just over the 100 yard mark. To counter that The Steelers proffer up a measly average of only 192 yards a game against a Dolphins defense that has only allowed an average of 110 yards a game. Did I say coin toss? I know everyone is saying, “hey, what about Ben Roethlisberger? Hey threw for two touchdowns against THE RAVENS!” He's a rookie QB, need I say more. There is light at the end of the tunnel for those that just have to have action on this game...The Over/Under! At 33.5 taking the under in this one is not at all a shabby bet and has me looking at it for a small NFL bet.
Side Notes: Under is 3-0-1 in the last four meeting, Under is 19-9 in MIA's last 28 on grass.

Arizona(0-2) at Atlanta(2-0), Atlanta -10. Return
OK let's take a look here The Cardinals are at the bottom of the heap when it comes to rush defense, albeit they might not have to stop Warrick Dunn (although he is expected to play), but they will have to stop Michael Vick (or is it Mike now), T.J Duckett and the emerging Justin Griffith. And the fact of the matter is they are 30th against the rush, 24th against the pass which puts them at the lowly state of being the 32nd ranked defense overall. And the woes don't stop there, The Cardinals pass ranking is 29th, rush ranking 27th and their overall offense ranking is just one above the bottom, 31st. Now The Falcons on the other hand are slightly below the middle of the pack with an overall defense ranking of 19th and an overall offense ranking of 16th but hidden in there is there rush ranking of...deep breath...number 2. But the Falcons are not without problems, Vick really only has two players to throw the ball to, Peerless Price and Alge Crumpler. That being said, I still see a sound thrashing ahead for the Cardinals. My online NFL betting will be on The Falcons to cover the spread and then some.
Side Notes: ARI is 4-13 ATS in their last 17 on the road, ATL has won the last two meeting against the spread (ATS), ATL is 6-3-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 overall.

Baltimore(1-1) at Cincinnati(1-1), Cincinnati +3. Return
Ok here is were I really can't give much. I'm a Cincinnati Fan and cannot in good conscious give any advice ideas or thoughts without my heart being a real factor in those words. I will say this much, I wouldn't put my money on either of them.

Chicago(1-1) at Minnesota(1-1), Minnesota -9. Return
This could be ugly, with a CB Charles Tillman out as well as Safety Mike Brown (out for season) CB’s Todd McMillon and rookie Nate Vasher must match up against the powerhouse that is the Vikings passing game. This could be a scoring frenzy by Randy Moss and the Vikings OTHER Wide Receivers. I can see big numbers coming out of Minnesota, with the spread currently setting at right around –9 it's not a stretch to make your NFL online betting with The Vikings-9.
Side Notes: MIN is 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings, MIN is 3-0 ATS in the last three at home.

Well that does it for the early games. I've got to get this fedora off my head, walk away from this terminal and play some video games...:)

I'll be back with the afternoon games and my opinions on them later tonight. I really hope that someone is reading this ;)-

NFL Betting Junkie Ramblings
Can we have some more game changing Player injuries Please

"If you aren't fired with enthusiasm, you'll be fired with enthusiasm."
Vince Lombardi

Well my fedoras firmly fixed in place and I'm now ready go about writing what I have alluded to from the beginning. But first let me take you back for just a bit in time and explain why I'm here in Cincinnati and why all this about online betting.

In 1999 I followed a beautiful young lady some 14 years my Junior back to the Midwest. Now first off, I didn't go purely because of love or the fact that I didn't think that another woman of her looks would ever want a disheveled, poorly dressed, and less than perfectly groomed man such as my self.
But there was also the fact that I HATED Las Vegas. I was either holed up in the house with my buddies drinking and what not or God forgive me, seeking solace from the bells whistles sirens and the constant clatter of coins hitting tin cans, by going to the closest TGIF's simply because there were no slot machines.
I mean I'm really not kidding when I say that we would drop 3, 4, 500 bucks a visit in bar tabs BEFORE going "Out on the town". So it was not the greatest of places for a man with a penchant for the booze a gambling habit...

I know it's cliche but Las Vegas truly does earn the saying, "it's a great place to visit, but you wouldn't want to live there.

So I found myself in Cincinnati, with a beautiful young bride and a starvation for the Sportsbooks and not a Casino with a Sportsbook to be found. How on earth would I feed this demon. I tried finding a booky, but with out very many connections in town that was easier said than done. But then I discovered the Internet once again and found a completely different world. But again I digress...

Coming up next, my veiws on the games this week as well as an injury report that might be worth a read for those NFL Gambling Junkies. It's uber-post time...