NFL Against the Spread Online Betting ESPN Night Game
Early Games
The Green Bay Packers (5-4) at The Houston Texans (4-5)
Against the Spread: Packers 4-5-0 | Texans 4-5-0
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET ESPN Night Game
Opening NFL Betting Line: Packers -3 -110 Over/Under 49.5u -106
Current High NFL Betting Line: Packers -3 -109 to -120
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Packers -3 -109 to -120
Over/Under 49u to 51u -110
Going over this game has been a bit troubling.
Green Bay seems to be the obvious choice. Since the return of tackle Grady Jackson, it seems that the Packers defense has started playing, if not inspired, at least decent football. Even with safety Darren Sharper limited to only the dime package, they were able to fend off an end of the game comeback from the Vikings. Youngster, Ahmad Carroll, has started to look considerably better. That means a lot since it is the pass defense that needs the most help.
Statistically speaking, the Packers are slightly better defensively, giving up just about a point less a game than the Texans. Offensively, they rank just slightly ahead of the Texans but are more well rounded. The Texans are ranked 9th overall, breaking down to the 21st rush and the 9th pass. Meanwhile Green Bay sits 5th overall, but with a 9th ranked rush and 3rd ranked pass. Even more to the point is the scoring discrepancy. The Packers average almost 27 points per game versus the Texans 21 (approx.).
With quarterback Brett Favre tossing to the likes of Donald Driver and Javon Walker, Robert Ferguson and tight end Bubba Franks it is no wonder that they have the number 3 passing game. Plus you have Ahman Green in the backfield laying the foundation for one of the all time greatest play action passers in the NFL to stand on.
Again looks obvious for the Packers to cover a 3 point spread.
But the Texans seem to have that something that never lets you feel comfortable betting against them. Quarterback David Carr had been on a hot streak that had him in the top 5 QB ratings. He has thrown for over 2300 yards and still has a completion percentage of about 62%. This is counting the last two games in which he has thrown for 0 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He has the ability to lead the team and spreads the ball around with great accuracy. His wide outs can't complain, none of the four are under 250 yards. And these aren't star studded guys, Jabar Gaffney, Andre Johnson, Corey Bradford, Derick Armstrong, these are not household names here.
Other than running backs Domanick Davis and maybe Tony Hollings, there aren't a handful of players on this team that the average armchair quarterback could name. (No offense to you hardcore fans, I know you guys know these players). And yet they have managed to at least stay in games they they were supposed to get blow out of. That was up until week 9.
Denver started picking away at the offensive line about mid-way through the game. The Colts picked up where Denver left off and furthered that cause. Of Carr's 25 sacks, 9 of them came in the last two games. Four from Denver and Five from Indianapolis. The Packers know that getting to Carr early discourages him. KGB has been “The Man” when comes to doing just that for Green Bay. He has 4.5 sacks and countless knocked-downs.
With KGB, and Na'il Diggs on the right side, and the middle plugged pretty well with Jackson and Barnett it's going to be tough going for the running game of Houston. And Houston is going to need something on the ground to keep Green Bay out of Carrs face all night.
So why so much about this game? Well mainly because writing about it sometimes clarifies thoughts.
What started out to be a questionable game in my mind has since turned into a big bet game.
The bottom line is, Houston can't stop the air assault that the Packers have, and despite a sore knee Ahamn Green is going to be the toughest back they have had to deal with since Priest Holmes. The double trouble from both the air and the ground is too much for the Texans D.
My Online Betting Action: The Packers -3.
