After last weeks debacle hesitation in gambling this week is an understatement.
For those online poker fans, found a poker room on my favorite online sportsbook. The software rocks, just a shame that there are too few players.
Have to go to Party Poker for the real fish. Which, mind you, is where a good deal of Monday & Tuesday evening was spent trying to re-coup losses from the weekend.
But there are a couple of games that I like and will be putting a little action on.
BTW, I don't know that it is worth bothering with the long match-up analysis. If anyone wants me to go back to that format please speak up now. Otherwise this will be the format until the Play-Offs.
On to the good stuff:
The Baltimore Ravens (5-3) at The N.Y. Jets (6-2)
Against the Spread: Ravens 6-2-0 | Jets 4-3-1
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Ravens -1.5 -112 Over/Under 33u -112
Current High NFL Betting Line: Ravens -1.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Ravens -0 -105 to –110
Over/Under 33.5u to 34u -110
The Jets loss of Quarterback Chad Pennington is going to sting. Although Edwards has settled into a run first throw second mentality, it has been the ability of Pennington and his receivers to take advantage of 2nd and short to take shots down the field. His replacement, Quincy Carter (the guy did throw for 17 tds last year), has like abilities as he showed in Dallas. The big question is whether or not Herm let's him use those abilities or not.
Going on the assumption that it is going to be the Curtis Martin-Lamar Jordan Show, tells me that its' going to be all about clock consumption. A sub 30 point game is not out of the question.
But there is a catch... suppose for a moment the coach Edwards says to himself “Hmm... I've got a QB that has not started with us which means defenses are not going to be quite as prepared as they would against Chad” now this is mere conjecture, but not entirely without merit. There is also the fact the Carter (rushed for 257 yards and 2 tds) is more mobile than Pennington only adding to the problems the Baltimore's defense has to prepare for.
Moving on to the Ravens, they have looked rather lackluster defensively the last several games. The King Lewis is not inspiring his players like in days of old (does this have anything to do with Sanders?). Sure they are still allowing the fewest points but this has been primarily against rushing offenses. And not rushing offenses of the caliber that the Jets bring to the table (not counting Pitts' since their numbers have been much bolstered by there last two outings). The only team that has really put that ranking to task was KC and they ran roughshod over them (178 yards rushing). Now they are going to have to face off against the number 3 rusher in the league in Curtis Martin, who doesn't fumble and can catch.
Brian of The NY Jets posed a very intriguing question about the under in this match-up.
The trends are pointing to the under and if you can get it at about 34-34.5 it's not without merit. I would stay away from the 33.5, the .5 could be the difference between a loss and a push in this game.
Personally, despite the loss of Pennington, I like the Jets as a Pick-Em/+1.
My Online Betting Action: The Jets +1 -105.
My Possible Online Betting Action: The Under 34.5.
The Kansas City Chiefs (3-5) at The New Orleans Saints (3-5)
Against the Spread: Chiefs 3-5-0 | Saints 2-6-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Chiefs -4.5 -115 Over/Under 58u +105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Chiefs -4.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Chiefs -3 -127
Over/Under 56.5u to 57u -110
Not much to say really. The Chiefs are probably going to have to go this one without RB Priest Holmes and his partner in crime Derrick Blaylock, although probable, is still bothered by his thigh injury. Never mind the fact that he was used basically used as a blocking back and to give Priest a rest.
Kansas City has proven that they REALLY are without a defense (realizing that this column has been touting improvement in that area) and will not have changed much when they go onto the field of battle Sunday. Trent Green, on the other hand, will be facing one of the worst pass defenders in the NFL.
That being said they are playing the Saints. The Saints Suck. They are inept in every aspect of the game, from coaching to playing. They can't score with any consistency, they turn the ball over at times as if they were playing “hot potato”. They have a running back that can't get his wits about him when trying to find the gap. Their front four is sub-par, and that's being generous.
The Saints Aint in nearly every category. 30th against the rush, 31st against the pass. Offensively they are 26 rush and 15th pass. More importantly though, the give up 29 points a game (worst in the NFL) against an offense that scores 29, and the Saints only manage about 21 points against a defense that allows just over 26. This doesn't make a 4.5 point spread. The number is slanted because of the missing Priest Holmes.
Small wager but:
My Online Betting Action: The Chiefs -3 -110.
My possible Online Betting Action: The Under 57u -110
The Pittsburgh Steelers (7-1) at The Cleveland Browns (3-5)
Against the Spread: Steelers 6-2-0 | Browns 4-4-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Steelers -3.5 -111 Over/Under 41.5u -112
Current High NFL Betting Line: Steelers -4.5 -110 to -120
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Steelers -3.5 -102 to -110
Over/Under 42u -103 to -110
Steelers with Rookie phenom Ben Roethlisberger behind center has finally made this gambler a believer. Having unseated the last two remaining undefeated teams and doing it with ease and with big numbers has proven it. The Browns are going to be a let-down by comparison.
Not going to bother with a bunch of crud about Cleveland, yeah they are playing at home. No Garcia is not the answer. Yeah, they have something of a run defense and no they can't stop the pass.
My Online Betting Action: The Steelers -3.5 -105.
The Seattle Seahawks (5-3) at The St. Louis Rams (4-4)
Against the Spread: Seahawks 4-4-0 | Rams 2-5-1
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Rams -0 -100 Over/Under 50u -108
Current High NFL Betting Line: Rams -1 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Rams -0 -100 to -110
Over/Under 50u -110
Rams are good at home, Seattle is bad on the road. Not much more to say.
Seattle has a good running game but the dropped balls in their passing attack is killing them.
Rams have a
The numbers defy this pick so I'm not even going to bother as they will make me look foolish, but I like St. Louis at home in this match-up. It comes purely from watching a lot of ball and knowing how these two teams handle the speed of turf. One does it well, the other doesn't.
Not one I would recommend, just one that I will be betting.
Two Ways:
My Online Betting Action: The Rams -0 -110.
My Online Betting Action: The Over 50o -110.
The Minnesota Vikings (5-3) at The Green Bay Packers (4-4)
Against the Spread: Vikings 5-3-0 | Packers 4-4-0
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Packers -4 -108 Over/Under 49.5u -112
Current High NFL Betting Line: Packers -4.5 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line Packers -4 -108 to -110
Over/Under 49.5u to 50u -110
The Vikings are once again going to be without receiver Randy Moss and it became evident just how much of an impact that has to their offense. Couple that with the fact their most productive running back, Mewelede Moore, will probably not start and you have a “less than” offense that won't be playing the non-existent defense that they had against the Colts last week. Don't look for any last minute miracles from the offense this week.
Green Bay is coming off a bye that has actually been of benefit. They are going to get some key players back on both sides of the ball most notably tackle Grady Jackson and Cletidus Hunt. But they are also looking to see action from guard Marco Rivera, and probably safety Darren Sharper.
Having two big wins just prior to isn't going to hurt things a bit.
My Online Betting Action: The Packers -4 -110.
Still pondering the ESPN Night game and The Monday Night Football games...
