NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Picks of The Week 17

The Final Regular Season NFL Match-ups

Here are the games worth noting and possible Online Betting Action.

Main Picks

The Green Bay Packers (9-6) at The Chicago Bears (5-10)
Against the Spread:  Packers 6-9-0 | Bears 5-10-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Bears -3 -105 Over/Under 34u +101
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bears -3 -110 to -120
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bears -3 -110 to -120
Over/Under 34u to 35.5u +102 to -110
Another tricky one, GB has nothing to gain by winning. Chicago may play to win or play to evaluate.

Despite Green Bay's playoff status being unaffected by the outcome of this game there are a couple other things that give this game some Wagering Value.

The Packers have struggled recently to get off to early leads/starts. In the last four games Green Bay has not scored in the first quarter. This is an area that Mike Sherman wants to change prior to the beginning of the post season. So, unlike other teams that have their position all sewn up, the Packers are looking for a momentum swing before Wild Card Weekend. Since, in all likelihood, they will face off with Minnesota or Carolina they need to get that first quarter monkey off their collective backs. Even if a miracle happens and St. Louis ends up in the Wild Card game, they need to be able to score quickly so they can get a good running passing mix going to keep those offenses off the field.

The Packers are going to be without WR Robert Ferguson for their regular season finale. The good news is that Antonio Chatman did a fine job, stepping up to the plate when they needed him to for those critical 1st down catches. RB Najeh Davenport is listed as questionable, troubled with his shoulder injury. The fact that RB Ahman Green is still nursing his ribs gives them more incentive to get off to a quick lead. If they can accomplish that then they can use him sparingly, replacing him at some stage of the game with Tony Fisher.

There is also the great road record that the Packers have (5-2) that they would like to increase to 6-2, just one game under their best set in '72 (6-1). QB Brett Favre is well within making the 4000 yard and 30 touchdown milestone in the same season for a third time. There are other team and individual single-season Packers records that are within reach. The main point however, is getting the momentum going for the post season. Considering their road record, particularly against the Bears, Chicago seems to be the right place at the right to do just that.

The Bears are on a 3 game losing streak and with the exception of the Detroit loss, have been beaten by pretty wide margins. Going into all the troubles that Chicago has is like beating a dead horse, it's useless and kind of mean spirited.

Lovie Smith does have some bright spots for next season. They have a young and talented defense, that has lots of potential. If they can make a few off season moves and make a few good draft choices, they have something of a foundation to build from offensively. But none of this matters for this game.

My Online Betting Action: The Packers +3

Recent Trends
•GB is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.
•GB is 2-5 ATS in their last seven overall.
•Over is 9-2 in GB last 11 overall.
•CHI is 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games.
•Under is 5-0 in CHI last five overall.
•Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

The N.Y. Jets (10-5) at The St. Louis Rams (7-8)
Against the Spread:  Jets 8-6-1 | Rams 4-10-1
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Jets -3 +109 Over/Under 43u +109
Current High NFL Betting Line: Jets -3.5 -101 to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Jets -3 -110 to -125
Over/Under 43u to 43.5u -105 to -110
Both the teams are in a “must win” to see the post season. The Jets are in the drivers seat however, as they can seal their fate either way in this game.

Not going to go into a big description of this game nor all the numbers to substantiate the value in this game.

Both teams need this win, but the Jets know that they can clinch a berth if they win.

St. Louis needs the win as well, but their fate will still be in the hands of others.

The Jets will use both RB's Curtis Martin and LaMont Jordan to keep the Rams offense off the field as much as possible, and they will be pounding against a suspect rush defense. Plus they will get the opportunity to take shots down field against a relatively weak secondary that's not going to have FS Aeneas Williams.

Small wager.

My Online Betting Action: The Jets -3

Recent Trends
•Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
•Under is 5-1 in NYJ last six overall.
•Jets are 4-2 ATS in their last six overall.
•Rams are 2-7 ATS in their last nine overall.
•Under is 4-0 in STL last four overall.
•STL is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.

The Pittsburgh Steelers (14-1) at The Buffalo Bills (96)
Against the Spread:  Steelers 9-5-1 | Bills 11-4-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Bills -9 -110 Over/Under 34u +102
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bills -10 +105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bills -9 -108 to -110
Over/Under 34u -105 to -110
The Steelers gain nothing by a win, as everything is set for them. Bills win and have a shot, but that's a lot to cover against the D of the Steelers.

The Steelers will not be using the following key offensive players:
QB Ben Roethlisberger
RB Duce Staley
RB Jerome Bettis
That speaks Volumes, and relegates this to a pretty short write up.

Buffalo can clinch with a win and they are playing very good ball. They are decently healthy and as long as QB Drew Bledsoe decides to give away this one, a win should not be that unsurmountable a task.

So the real question here is, can they cover the spread?

It's the answer that brings this to the less value mark.

Maybe. That's the answer. The Steelers D is tough and that means that there is going to have to be more than just RB Willis McGahee and the running game to beat Pittsburgh by better than a touchdown. So we are back to looking at Bledsoe. His numbers have improved a bit lately and that is why this gets a small wager.

My Online Betting Action: The Bills -9

Recent Trends
•PIT is 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings.
•Under is 7-1 in PIT last eight overall.
•Over is 7-0 in PIT last seven games in Jan.
•BUF is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 overall.
•Over is 8-1 in BUF last nine overall.
•Under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings.

The San Fransisco 49ers (2-13) at The New England Patriots (13-2)
Against the Spread:  49ers 6-9-0 | Patriots 10-3-2
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Patriots -13.5 -104 Over/Under 37u -106
Current High NFL Betting Line: Patriots -15 +115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Patriots -13 -110
Over/Under 37u to 40u EVEN to -110
Pat's have nothing to gain with a win. 49ers couldn't beat OSU on a good day. But covering 2 TD's from back-ups...?

This would be a no brainer, class A wager if it weren't for the fact that Tom Brady along with several other starters will probably not see more than a half of playing time. Against the 49ers however, a lot of damage can be done in 30 minutes.

Medium Wager because San Fransisco is so out-matched.

My Online Betting Action: The Patriots -13

Recent Trends
•SF is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
•SF is 2-7 ATS in their last nine overall.
•Over is 7-2 in SF last nine overall.
•NE is 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 overall.
•NE is 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 games in Jan.
•Under is 3-1 in the last four meetings.

The Kansas City Chiefs (7-8) at The San Diego Chargers (11-4)
Against the Spread:  Chiefs 6-9-0 | Chargers 12-1-2 Best ATS in the League
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Chiefs -3 -108 Over/Under 54.5u -101
Current High NFL Betting Line: Chiefs -3.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Chiefs -3 -116 to -125
Over/Under 51.5u to 52u -110
Chargers are locked, taking the hard earned AFC West Title. Vermeil wants to end the season on a high note. Betting against a team with the best ATS is a hard call. Over maybe...?

Reason for a wager on this one is simple. The Chargers can score too.

Again no reason for a long description of the match-up.

KC wants to finish on a high note, getting it done is San Diego against the AFC West Title holders is not where you want to get your hopes up too high. That being said, they can score and quickly. Although Schottenheimer may not want the win bad enough to start Brees (although he hasn't ruled it out), he doesn't want to get blown out in their regular season finale in front of their fans.
Small Wager

My Online Betting Action: The Over 51.5

Recent Trends
•Over is 6-3 in the last nine meetings.
•Over is 8-2 in KC last 10 overall.
•Over is 13-4 in KC last 17 vs. AFC West.
•SD is 11-0-1 ATS in their last 12 overall.
•Over is 10-2 in SD last 12 home games.
•SD is 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings.

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Picks of The Week 17

The Final Regular Season NFL Match-ups

These are the games that seem to have the most Wagering Value.

The Cincinnati Bengals (7-8) at The Philadelphia Eagles (13-2)
Against the Spread:  Bengals 6-8-1 | Eagles 9-6-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Bengals -3 -101 Over/Under 41u +103
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bengals -3.5 -105 to -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bengals -3 -130
Over/Under 39u to 40.5u +105 to -110
I think the same applies to the St. Louis game. Value based on who won't be playing and Lewis wanting to go 8-8.

Recent Trends
•CIN is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
•Over is 4-1 in CIN last five overall.
•CIN is 3-0 ATS in their last three road games.
•Under is 11-3 in the Eagles last 14 overall.
•PHI is 0-3 ATS in their last three overall.
•PHI is 0-3 ATS in their last three games in Jan.

So here's the skinny. The Bengals need a 8-8 finish more than the Eagles need a win. Unfortunately QB Carson Palmer is slated as no. 2, which mean that Jon Kitna will probably start. Palmer may see some playing time in the second half, according to Head Coach Marvin Lewis. That remains to be seen. He did some practice drills with the first team but did not complete th 11-on-11 session. T Willie Anderson is listed as Probable but by all rights is good to go.

Expecting Lewis to put a team on the field with anything else but a win in mind seems unlikely. A .500 finish at least keeps up with last seasons numbers, a back-step could mean Bengals Pres, Mike Brown, getting more involved again. Something that no one in the locker room wants, least of all Lewis.

The Eagles are in much the same game mode as they were against St. Louis. Although the starters may see even less time on the field. RB Brian Westbrook is inactive, as is DE Jevon Kearse and OT Tra Thomas. QB Donovan McNabb will probably not play at all, Reid opting to be extra careful and split time between Koy Detmer (he looks like Martin Grammatica) and Jeff Blake. Others that may very well be missing from the line-up entire could be WR's Todd Pinkston and Freddie Mitchell, FS Brian Dawkins, ML Jeremiah Trotter and CB Lito Sheppard.

Bottom line is Andy Reid is playing for the ring and is going to protect those precious commodities that give him the best shout at it.

My Online Betting Action: The Bengals -2.5
Got Wager in before line change, it's now -3.5, but is still worthy a small to medium bet.

The Cleveland Browns (3-12) at The Houston Texans (7-8)
Against the Spread:  Browns 5-10-0 | Texans 9-6-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Texans -10.5 -102 Over/Under 39u -102
Current High NFL Betting Line: Texans -10 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Texans -8.5 -110
Over/Under 39u -110
Texans, Maybe? -9.5 is a lot considering how streaky they are. Just the same this game may have value, Dom needs a .500 finish.

The Browns are backpedaling about as fast as a team can. They are on a 9 game losing streak that probably won't end in Texas. They have allowed an average of 33.6 points a game in their last 5 overall and have manage just 15.4 a game. QB Luke McCown numbers have been dismal at best and it's looks as though he will be the starter, as Holcomb is listed as questionable with his rib injury. RB Lee Suggs is in good shape as is William Green. But Cleveland needs to be in charge of the game for those guys to play a real role. That assumes an early lead for the Browns, something that just doesn't happen all that often.

The Browns do have a decent passing D (7th), but it is offset by the awful rushing D (31st), that means that the Texans RB, Domanick Davis, should be able to exploit that area.

Speaking of Defenses, Houston doesn't really have a great on at 29th overall, but they score points when they get turnovers. 12 points on 20 picks (tied for 3rd in the league in INT's) and 30 points on 10 forced fumbles. Compared to a total of 12 points scored defensively by the Browns, those look like stellar numbers.

The Texans offense, led by QB David Carr and RB Domanick Davis, has the talent to do very well and has been somewhat productive, although streaky, over the last 5 weeks. They have scored an average just under the 20 point mark while allowing about 15 a game. They have had to play tougher competition however. When you look at the games against sub .500 teams the margin of victory is 14.5 points. That's not counting the shut-out 21-0 win over then 8-6 Jacksonville Jaguars.

So the question really becomes one of can they win by that big a margin. If Cleveland had a better than 0-7 road record then you would question it with the Texans 3-4 home record.

Looking elsewhere, in Conference games the Texans are 6-5 while the Browns are 2-9. In Divisional Games Houston is 4-2 versus Cleveland's 2-4 record.

So with all these numbers in mind, the Texans get the win. As for covering 9 points, looking at how they have done recently against sub par teams it goes for Houston as well.

My Online Betting Action: The Texans -9

Recent Trends
•CLE is 1-7 ATS in their last eight overall.
•Over is 4-1 in the Browns last five on the road.
•Over is 2-0 in CLE previous two games in Jan.
•HOU is 5-1 ATS in their last six overall.
•Under is 7-2-1 in HOU last 10 overall.
•HOU is 8-4 ATS in their last 12 on grass.

The Minnesota Vikings (8-7) at The Washington Redskins (5-10)
Against the Spread:  Vikings 7-8-0 | Redskins 5-10-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Vikings -4 -108 Over/Under 41u -109
Current High NFL Betting Line: Vikings -4 -105 to -113
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Vikings -3.5 -110
Over/Under 40.5u to 41u -105 to -110
Minnesota clinches NFC playoff berth with win. The Redskins are in re-coupe mode. Minnesota is a wager, size yet undetermined.

The Vikings are in a must win game to assure themselves of a Wild Card playoff berth. If the numbers are correct they still have a shot if everything plays out perfectly with a loss, but I'm quite sure that Head Coach Mike Tice doesn't want his fate in the hands of other teams.

Minnesota has all the weapons on offense that you could ask for. QB Daunte Culpepper is well over 4000 yards, with 37 TD's to his 11 INT's. WR Randy Moss is a constant bother for defenses and the forced coverage to keep him at bay has allowed Nate Burleson, and Marcus Robinson to see a good chunk of passes thrown their way. The Four Headed running back beast has been sufficient with Michael Bennett, Mewelde Moore, Onterrio Smith and Moe Williams.

The Vikings don't have much of a defense, but then again Washington doesn't have much of an offense. Those numbers become pretty much a wash.

Joe Gibbs would like nothing more than the end the season on a high note, and he does have the defense to do it.

Giving up only 16.5 points a game puts them in the top 5 overall in Pts. Against. They are not scoring D however, producing just 12 points on 18 INT's and 12 forced fumbles. That defense is going to be hampered a bit with the loss of CB Fred Smoot who will not be playing, out with a kidney injury. How they are going to move things around in the secondary is anyones guess. You will probably see Walt Harris lined up on the right side opposite Bruleson/Robinson which is should be a favorable match-up for the Vikings. Rookie CB Garnell Wilds will be back-up to Harris, again advantage Minnesota.

The Redskins offense is still makeshift at best. QB Patrick Ramsey will start and by all appearances, RB Ladell Betts will get his first start of the season with Clinton Portis placed on IR. The WR's spots are healthy, but Ramsey has to have time to through the ball for them to come into play. Considering that he has been sacked 14 times since being back as the starter, let's you know that he is not getting the protection up front that he needs.

Considering what's a stake for the Vikings and the low line based on what had been a ball control offense and solid secondary of the Redskins, the Vikings seem to be a good Value Wager this week.
My Online Betting Action: The Vikings -3.5

Recent Trends
•Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
•MIN is 1-5 ATS in their last six overall.
•Over is 5-1 in MIN last six road games.
•Under is 14-5 in WAS last 19 overall.
•WAS is 4-1 ATS in their last five overall.
•WAS is 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings.

The Atlanta Falcons (11-4) at The Seattle Seahawks (8-7)
Against the Spread:  Falcons 6-8-1 | Seahawks 5-10-0
Game Time: 4:05 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Seahawks -5.5 -105 Over/Under 42.5u +101
Current High NFL Betting Line: Seahawks -6.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Seahawks -6 -105 to 110
Over/Under 42u to 42.5u -103 to -110
No Vick + Atlanta set for playoffs = no offense. Medium sized wager on Seattle -5.5.

The above appeared true until news late this week came out rumoring that QB Michael Vick may play. Both Vick and Mora are hush hush about it, but even if he does play it will be more in the passing capacity than using his legs. That means the TE Alge Crumpler out of the line up is going to be more of a factor. The reality is that if Vick isn't running the ball the offense just doesn't get much done.

On the other side of the ball, the Falcons may see CB Jason Webster back in the starting position. He will be amongst facing off at least some of the time against WR Darrell Jackson on the right side. This will be interesting to watch as Webster has not seen action in over a month and Jackson is a crafty route runner. CB Kevin Mathis has been upgraded to probable and will probably start. If he does, it will be on the right side and they will shift Webster over to the left, assuming he starts as well. It's a mess in the secondary know matter how you look at it. With CB's switching sides and question marks to boot.

Seattle can get the no. 4 seed and play host to the No. 5 seed (either Minnesota, Carolina or St. Louis) on Wild Card weekend. But they have at least clinched a playoff berth. The Division Title and being at home is what they seek now and that's pretty good motivation.

Up front on O, the Seahawks w/ FB Mack Strong back, should be able to
win the battle and allow for RB Shaun Alexander to do what he does best, score, yeah he runs too. Depending on whether or not Atlanta goes with their base personal this could be made a little easier with nickel and dime S Aaron Beasley playing more than usual, in which case it will be SS Bryan Scott sneaking up for the rush coverage instead of FS Cory Hall.

Seattle's lack-luster win last at home against Arizona should have lit a fire under this teams ***. If they have any hopes of going past the first round of the playoffs they need to get the momentum going now. With Atlanta already locked in place for their post season play, this looks like the Seahawks last chance to do that.

My Online Betting Action: The Seahawks -5.5

Recent Trends
•ATL is 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings in SEA.
•Under is 10-3 in ATL last 13 overall.
•ATL is 2-5 ATS in their last seven games in Jan.
•SEA is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 overall.
•Over is 10-2 in SEA last 12 overall.
•Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

That's it for the games that I think have solid Value. Will have the “Questionable” match-ups posted shortly.

P.S. Apologies in advance for any blatant mistakes, typed this one out from notes in a hurry, so...

Time for a little Rose Bowl