Friday, October 29, 2004

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Week 8 Picks of the Week

Ok folks, Fast and furious. Was going to do a big post, but ran out of time... hold the sighs applause to a minimum please. I have my fedora in place, a fresh pack of Kools and I'm ready to go.

The Arizona Cardinals (2-4) at The Buffalo Bills (1-5)
Against the Spread: Cardinals 4-2-0 | Bills 3-3-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Buffalo -3 -121 Over/Under 34u -109
Current High NFL Betting Line: Buffalo -3.5 –105 to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Buffalo -3 –110 to -130
Over/Under 33.5 to 35.5 -110

Would the real Cardinals please stand up? They must have put something other than Gatorade in those water bottles last week. The 25-17 upset of the Seattle Seahawks was just more proof that those Seattle uniforms have got to change. Seriously though, Arizona outplayed Holmgren's 'Hawks from whistle to whistle. In nearly every category they were ahead, just as the score reflected. Who says parity isn't good for the NFL? They may be getting their Stud To Be wide receiver Anquan Boldin back, but I doubt that it will have much impact considering the numbers that his conterpart Larry Fitzgerald, is putting up. More important will be the health of the corner back and strong safety positions with with David Macklin and Adrian Wilson still banged up.

Moving on, the Bills didn't fair so well last week losing another one, primarily do to quarter back(can we really call him that?) Drew Bledsoe's complete breakdown. The only turnover that wasn't his fault was the ball that Prime Time got after being tipped by Chad Williams. Yet he had the audacity to make the following statement after the game:
"We've got to play better," Bledsoe said. "We've got to run the ball better (and) our offense isn't good enough in the passing game. I don't know what the answer is."

Excuse me, “We've got to play better.”, “...our offense isn't good enough in the passing game...”, what planet are you on Drew? Yeah, I know you aren't getting the protection you need from your line. But you are a seasoned veteran, you should know by now how to throw the ball away. I may not know what the answer is either, but I know that it isn't giving the ball to the other team five times.

Why I wasted this much verbiage on this game I have no idea. Who cares who wins, Bills fans and Cardinals fans, that's about it.

For what it's worth I think the Cardinals get two in a row.

My Online Betting Action: None.

The Baltimore Ravens (4-2) at The Philadelphia Eagles (6-0)
Against the Spread: Ravens 4-2-0 | Eagles 5-1-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Eagles -7.5 -102 Over/Under 37.5u -103
Current High NFL Betting Line: Eagles -8.5 -105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Eagles -7 -115
Over/Under 37.5 to 38 -110

The loss of running back Jamal Lewis will show it's real colors this week against the Eagles. They better have some ground game strategy mapped out or they are in trouble. Being as injury laden as they are offensively they cannot afford the luxury of getting behind by 10 and climbing back as Cleveland did. Remember that the Browns got a gift roughing the passer penalty on a fourth and seven play that set them up to put it into over-time. These are things that happen, but can't be expected. Another thing that can't be expected is the lack efficiency that the Eagles had in the red-zone. To throw salt on the wound, tackle Jonathan Ogden is questionable (although it's rumored that he'll play) which is going to make life even tougher for quarter back Kyle Boller, who proffered up a meager 60 yards last week.

What can I say about the Eagles that hasn't already been said about a thousand times. Quarter back Donovan McNabb is playing the best ball of his career. Wide receiver Terrel Owens is on pace to have the best season of his career and let's not forget the fact that they are in the top three in passing yards, points per game and yards per game. The Eagles McNabb has a QB rating of 105, and a completion percentage of 65%. Owens has a 99.3 yard per game average with 8 touchdowns. Defensively they are average, but do hold their opponents to under 16 points a game, just a couple notches below Baltimore. That's counting the 31 that the Browns scored.

My Online Betting Action: Eagles -7

The Cincinnati Bengals (2-4) at The Tennessee Titans (2-5)
Against the Spread: Bengals 1-5-0 | Titans 2-5-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Titans -3 -120 Over/Under 40.5u -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Titans -3.5 -105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Titans -3 -110 to -120
Over/Under 40.5 -110

You all know the drill on this one!

The Detroit Lions (4-2) at The Dallas Cowboys (2-4)
Against the Spread: Lions 4-2-0 | Cowboys 2-4-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Dallas -3 -119 Over/Under 39u -116
Current High NFL Betting Line: Dallas -3 -115 to -130
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Dallas -3.5 -110
Over/Under 41 -103 to -110

The Lions are coming off a sizable upset, beating the Giants by 15 and staying perfect on the road. QB Joey Harrington has fallen in love with rookie wide receiver Roy Williams, who grabbed 4 for 67 yards and a touchdown despite the ankle problems that kept him out of game 7. When he's not play pass and catch with him he's hooking up with Az Hakim in the end-zone. Running backs Kevin Jones and Artrose Pinner are turning into a solid duo from the backfield.
What really amazes me is that the Lions have the worst offense and close to the worst defense in the league yet have 4 road wins. If they can keep up the play that they have so far I see no reason why they can't come away with a win in Dallas. (I snuck in a money line bet on Detriot last week that I was embarrassed to talk about and now wish I had).

Bill Parcells has done the unthinkable, he's shown weakness. He's slowed down practice in an effort to save his players energy. He's worried about their mental state and is watching their “body language”. When exactly did hell freeze over?
Dallas has got some major problems, both offensively and defensively. Although quarterback Vinny Testaverde has done a more than decent job, connecting with wide-outs Keyshawn Johnson and Terry Glenn for over 750 yards and totaling out at about 1600, he has not had the protection that Parcells had promised him. He's double digits in sacks, 9 of those in the last 3 games. Running backs Eddie Goerge and Richie Anderson have combined for only 415 yards and 4 touchdowns. Dallas came into this season a proud defense and have since dropped to the lowly status of 25th overall and have given up the 3rd most points.
Is it age, coaching, lack of motivation? I know that this isn't the team the Mr. Parcells thought he was going to have at the beginning season.
Alright, enough ranting about how bad they have looked, let's get to Sunday's game. Dallas has to win to have a prayer of post-season play and not just because of the record. As a team if they drop this one at home it's over. That said, I don't think they will mount enough defense to stop Detriot from scoring and somehow the Lions will find a way to win.

My Online Betting Action: Lions +3
It's a small wager game, maybe better suited to the money line.

The Green Bay Packers (3-4) at The Washington Redskins (2-4)
Against the Spread: Packers 3-4-0 | Redskins 2-4-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Packers -2.5 -115 Over/Under 40.5u -104
Current High NFL Betting Line: Packers -3 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Packers -1.5 -105 to -110
Over/Under 40.5 -110

Green Bay had another big win last week stomping Dallas 41-20. Running back Ahman Green went off, rushing for 163 yards and 2 touchdowns. As an added bonus he went a second week without a fumble. Quarter back Brett Favre was solid yet again, throwing for over 250 yards, with 2 touchdowns and he too went a second game with a goose egg in the turnover category. Wide-outs Javon Walker and Donald Driver were on the receiving end of Favres touchdown passes and had a camera shot catch a piece. Coach Mike Sherman pulled another rabbit out of the hat with the halfback toss from Tony Fisher to tight end Bubba Franks for 6 points. They are going to have a couple of key hurdles to jump on both sides of the ball. Big question marks next to safety Darren Sharper and guard Marco Riveras' names come to mind quickly, but Green Bay is looking much better defensively now that tackle Grady Jackson has returned.

The Redskins and coach Joe Gibbs are struggling right now. The bye may have helped a little but not enough, as they are still without line backer LaVar Arrington and kicker John Hall. Quarter back Mark Brunell is still not quite with the program, which leaves the burden of the offense on running back Clinton Portis' shoulders. Portis has done a fair job but has struggled keeping a handle on the ball, particularly near the goal-line.
Their defense, by contrast, has been very effective allowing about 16 points a game on an average of 85 or so rushing and less than 150 passing. They have 5 picks, 4 fumbles recoveries and 16 sacks to their credit. They are 1st overall with very good balance at 1st against the rush and 3rd against the pass.
Unfortunately for 'Skins fans those numbers aren't going to mean as much after Sunday. Considering that those stats have come by way of offenses that don't put big numbers up anyway. Tampa, Chicago, Dallas, Baltimore, all those teams have sub par scoring averages and are in the lower half of the offensive rankings, with the exception of Dallas.

My Online Betting Action: Packers -1.5


The Indianapolis Colts (4-2) at The Kansas City Chiefs (2-4)
Against the Spread: Colts 4-1-1 | Chiefs 2-4-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Colts -1.5 -107 Over/Under 58.5u -115
Current High NFL Betting Line: Colts -2 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Colts -0 -110
Over/Under 56.5 to 57 -110

Indianapolis has a ton of weapons but are struggling to hit their target the last few games. Wide receiver Marvin Harrison is dinged up as is Brandon Stokley. They are a defensive nightmare overall, never mind their 6th ranking against the rush. Facing off with the likes of Priest Holmes isn't like going at it against any other running back in the game today. He can hurt you seven ways to Sunday.

The Chiefs are starting to get their act together offensively and everyone knows what they can do when that wheel is rolling. Quarter back Trent Green is marching steadily back up the passing charts. I've already mentioned Holmes, so no need in going through that. They are getting healthy at the wide receiver position with the complete recovery of Eddie Kennison.

Quite frankly this line surprises me and may very well have me betting the money line.

My Online Betting Action: Chiefs +1.5

Well this turned out to be longer than I thought. I'll be back in the morning with the rest of the weekend forecast... thanks for dropping by!