NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Picks of The Week 14, Part Three
Ok, Down and dirty. These are small wagers only!
Top Three Picks
Middle of the Road Picks
The Seattle Seahawks (6-6) at The Minnesota Vikings (7-5)
Against the Spread: Seahawks 4-8-0 | Vikings 7-5-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: Vikings -7.5 +105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Vikings -6.5 -110 to -115
Over/Under 51u to 52u -110 to -113
Seattle manages to find a way to lose a game in every way imaginable. This week shows no appearance of being any different. Even Alexander, as good as he is, can't help medirocre coaching and poor decision making by Hasselbeck.
With no real defense to speak of, stopping the passing game of the Vikings seems like climbing Mt. Everest without a rope.
Vikings with Moss now recovered can kill you in the air. If that wasn't enough they have discovered something in the way of a running game with Onterrio Smith, and if they can put him back in Mewelde Moore.
My Online Betting Action: The Vikings -6.5
The N.Y. Jets (9-3) at The Pittsburgh Steelers (11-1)
Against the Spread: Jets 7-4-1 | Steelers 7-4-1
Game Time: 4:05 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Steelers -5.5 -111 Over/Under 35.5u -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Steelers -7 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Steelers -5.5 -115
Over/Under 35.5u to 36u -104 to -110
Chad Looked pretty good all things considered. They won a big one that was much needed and much unexpected. Martin had another outstanding day and if that continues it could bolster there chances.
If the D can pressure Big Ben then all the better.
Pittsburgh has shown their weakness and now everyone knows what it is. With Duce still bothered (although not on the injury report) the Bus is going to be heavily relied on and they are still going to be without Burress plus they lost Riemersma last Sunday.
My Online Betting Action: The Jets +7
The San Fransisco 49ers (1-11) at The Arizona Cardinals (4-8)
Against the Spread: 49ers 5-7-0 | Cardinals 6-6-0
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Cardinals -6 -105 Over/Under 37u -112
Current High NFL Betting Line: Cardinals -8 –110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Cardinals -5.5 -110
Over/Under 37u -110
The Cards will be getting Emmitt back and no matter who starts at QB the 49ers won't have an answer.
Arizona can proffer up something like a defense particularly against the pass. Since that's all that San Fran has...
San Fransisco is a bad bad team. Worse than Cinci was at their depths. So expecting anything from them is like expecting a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.
My Online Betting Action: The Cardinals -5.5
The St. Louis Rams (6-6) at The Carolina Panthers (5-7)
Against the Spread: Rams 3-8-1 | Panthers 7-5-0
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: Panthers -7.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Panthers -6.5 –110
Over/Under 44u -110
The Rams are in a must win situation. Stephen Jackson is probably out, but Faulk should be a little healthier. Even if Bulger doesn't start Smoker has talent and knows his way around this offense. So assuming that Marts takes the fact that he's a rookie into account they could still pick up this much needed win.
Carolina is in about the same position but have less weapons to work with. They have shown up big as of late, but Delhomme is still bothered by his thumb and punter Todd Sauerbrun is bothered by a quad injury. That means a lot to a team that relies on their ability to pin opponents deep in their own territory.
My Online Betting Action: The Rams +7.5
The New Orleans Saints (4-8) at The Dallas Cowboys (5-7)
Against the Spread: Saints 4-8-0 | Cowboys 5-7-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: Cowboys -8.5 -105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Cowboys -6.5 -120
Over/Under 47.5u to 48u -110
New Orleans can't get much of anything right. Neither on offense nor on defense. They have talent just bad coaching and no sense of direction.
Dallas seems re-born with Julius Jones, and that has seemed to spark life in all kinds of places. Even the scrub defense played decently last week.
Dallas seems the better team, and the Saints are bad on the road and worse in Conference games.
My Online Betting Action: The Cowboys -6.5
Sorry if I've made any egregious errors, did this last run in about 30min. So do me a favor and point them out so I don't look like a complete moron.
And lastly, thank you for stopping to read my humble blog!
Saturday, December 11, 2004
NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Picks of The Week 14, Part Duex
These are my middle of the road picks, worthy of medium sized bets. For my big bets this weekend:
Top Three Picks
The Cleveland Browns (3-9) at The Buffalo Bills (6-6)
Against the Spread: Browns 4-8-0 | Bills 8-4-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bills -12.5 -100
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bills -11 -108 to -110
Over/Under 38u -110
The Browns had an outstanding offensive performance against the Cincinnati Bengals last week, even though they lost. That was with QB Kelly Holcomb at the helm. He's out for this game with cracked ribs. This leaves rookie Luke McCown taking snaps. Although he did not do a terrible job against NE going 20 of 34 for 277 yards and 2 touchdowns. He did get picked twice and was sacked on three occasions. Rumor has it that after his awful performance last week, RB William Green will play second string to rookie RB Adimchinobe Echemandu. That sounds like desperation, and testing ground for next season. This makes since considering that they have no chance of post season play, and are not good enough to be a spoiler. WR Andre Davis was officially placed on IR and will be out the remainder of the season. Not that the news has any impact.
Cleveland's defense will most likely not see CB Daylon McCutcheon in the lineup. Last weeks game showed just what that does to the secondary. The bright side is that Drew Bledsoe will be the passer for the Bills so that is somewhat offset. There just isn't much else to speak about in terms of the Browns D. They give up 26 points a game, 343 yards -139 on the ground and 203 in the air. They do manage to get picks, but can do very little with them, having gained only 6 points on 14 interceptions. Same thing applies with forced fumbles, 7 but only 6 points to their credit. All this adds up to an overall D ranking of 22nd – 29 against the rush 13 against the pass.
The Bills have something at stake in all of the remaining games. Much like the Bengals they are still in the mathematical hunt for a playoff berth in the incredibly tight AFC. At 6-6 they are tied with Cincinnati and Jacksonville and if the right things happen and they get wins that they should it could be a true race to the finish for those precious Wild Card spots. They Jets, in all likelihood , have one pretty well sewn up. The other one is held by a thin string by Baltimore who has lost their last two and are certainly not a lock against the Giants.
Buffalo has won their last three in spite of Bledsoe's attempts at throwing them away. RB Willis McGahee has gone for over 100 in 4 of his last 6 starts. The last one being just shy at 91. Considering the Dolphins poor rushing D that was somewhat surprising. But Drew did have his best game of the year getting 277 yards, 4 touchdowns and, sit down folks, NO interceptions. Never mind the offense for a moment, it's the defense that should control this game.
Coming in with the 4th overall D and well rounded at 4th against the rush and 9th against the pass and considering the changes in roster for Cleveland, stopping them should not be a huge task. The Bills are +2 in Give-Aways/Take-Aways versus Cleveland's -7, obvious edge to the Bills. They have more at stake and they have not lost a home game since week 4 and have an average win margin of about 16 points. All that as well as an ATS of 8-4-0 doesn't make this a hards pick for a medium sized bet.
My Online Betting Action: The Bills -11
The Philadelphia Eagles (11-1) at The Washington Redskins (4-8)
Against the Spread: Eagles 9-3-0 | Redskins 5-7-0
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET ESPN Night Game
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Eagles -9 -107 Over/Under 37.5u -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Packers -10.5 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Packers -9 -104 to -110
Over/Under 37.5u -110
The Eagles led by the #2 rated QB, Donovan McNabb, handed Green Bay their hats last week, blowing them out 47-17. WR Terrell Owens who was already just under 1000 yards picked up 8 catches for 161 yards and a touchdown. Wasn't the Player of the Game however. That honor was bestowed upon RB Brian Westbrook, who only had 37 yards rushing, but caught 11 passes for 156 yards and 3 touchdowns. WR Todd Pinkston is expected to play, which gives McNabb yet another outlet. For the first time all season, TE L.J. Smith doesn't have some sort of injury asterisk next to his name, More help for Donovan. Although Reno Mahe is doubtful, with the way the Dexter Wynn has played, he may not have a job when he gets healthy anyway.
Philadelphia's defense is statistically average at 12th over all (14th pass and rush). But they get the job done. They one of the better Give-Away/Take-Away margins at +14, but are one of those defenses that are not particularly efficient. Having only 4 defensive scores on 26 take-aways. There again, they kill drives with those forced fumbles and interceptions and they do produce points from the conversions.
Washington newly appointed QB Patrick Ramsey is getting the job done better than last year. But he is still seeing the turf too many times. This is a guy with all the makings of a good quarterback and yet Spurrier and now Gibbs keep putting him in behind an obviously deficient line that cannot keep him safe. In 5 games he has played he has been sacked 14 times. That's nearly half of the number of times he hit the ground in 14 games last season. Gibbs, your back in the NFL, not stock cars. You're also in the NFC and stand no chance of seeing the playoffs. Put Tim Hasselbeck in and save the one thing that you have going for you for next season, when you (or whoever is leading the charge) can build a line that can do something in the form of pass protection. RB Clinton Portis gained 148 yards on the ground, but it was against a Giants team that allows about 138. So take that for what it's worth. The receivers aren't really worth mentioning, when the QB actually has time to throw the ball neither Coles nor Gardner have done anything spectacular. Ok, Gardner has 5 TD's but, save for one game, has gained minimal yardage. Coles is as likely to drop the ball as catch it, so counting on him is like tossing the dice and hoping for snake eyes. But there is the Defense.
The Redskins defense is good, period. 16.8 points a game, 257.4 totals yards – 86.8 rushing 170.7 passing – gives them the overall ranking of #2 with the 3rd best rush and pass D in the league. With Shawn Springs, Sean Taylor, Ryan Clark and Fred Smoot lined up in the secondary they have the ability reek havoc on a passing game. The D may also get a bit of a boost, morally if not physically, with the possible return of LB LaVar Arrington. His impact on the field has to be in question however, considering that he has been sidelined for virtually the entire season with his knee problems. Despite everything that they have going for them on D it seems unlikely that they can do enough to keep the Eagles from another wide margin win.
My Online Betting Action: The Eagles -9
The Detroit Lions (5-7) at The Green Bay Packers (7-5)
Against the Spread: Lions 6-6-0 | Packers 5-7-0
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Packers -9.5 -103 Over/Under 44.5u -110
Current High NFL Betting Line: Packers -11 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line Packers -9.5 -106 to -110
Over/Under 43.5u to 45u -110 to +113
The Lions, after losing a series of close games capped of by week 12's 41-9 routing by the Colts, had to feel like they had finally accomplished something. Since it was against the then 4-7 Cardinals, what it was exactly that they accomplished is anyones guess, but it was at least a moral victory as well as a W. QB Joey Harrington didn't really play that well, going 15 of 27 for 196 yards 1 touchdown and an interception. WR Roy Williams had a bit better of a game than he has of late , snagging 4 for 76 yards and Tai Streets got 3 for 54 yards and a touchdown. But this offense wasn't about the passing game it was all about the running back. Rookie Kevin Jones gained 218 yards, 196 on the ground and 22 in the air. He pulled them out of a couple jams in 3rd down situations and all around played a great game. Let us not forget the other major factor in this win, Jason Hanson. He was 4-4 with 2 from 35+ and 2 from 40+ with a long of 45. When Detroit got him in range he came through in spades.
Detroit's defense had their best game of the season. They picked rookie QB John Navarre 4 times. Kept him under the 50% completion mark (18 of 40) and allowed him just 160 yards. Cb Dre` Bly got two of those interceptions while LB Teddy Lehman and DE James Hall -with a little help from fellow DE Kalimba Edwards- accounted for the other two. With legendary, future Hall of Fame RB, Emmitt Smith (For you Preston) sidelined with a toe injury, the Lions had no trouble manhandling rookie RB Larry Croom, holding him to only 49 yards on 18 carries.
The Packers walked out of Veterans Stadium with their tails tucked firmly between their legs, being embarrassed by the Eagles in a 47-17 thrashing. QB Brett Favre threw 2 interceptions, the first midway in the 1st quarter the second just at the start of the 2nd quarter, which lead to the first scores for the Eagles. Favre's touchdown a game streak ended at 37 furthering his on field depression. Although Ahman Green did play, he was not a factor. Obviously still sore and afraid of being hit in the chest, he managed only 37 yards on 11 carries and only caught 3 passes for minimal yardage. As bad as that was, it was his lack of blocking prowess that hurt at least as much. There is good news to report. Ahman is healthy as is his backup/blocker Najeh Devenport. All the receivers are good to go and with the exception of C Grey Ruegamer, who is expected to play, the entire O line is healthy. This should make things considerably more comfortable for Favre. Plus they are at home and Detroit is just the kind of team you want to meet up with for a rebound win.
The Packers defense is lackluster at best. S Darren Sharper should be quicker this week. CB Ahmad Carroll is coming around, slowly but surely. His counterpart, CB Al Harris is good to harass whoever has the displeasure of lining up across from him. Mark Roman is always a bother running free in the middle. Tackle Grady Jackson is still bothered by his knee but will play. The thing that the Pacs' are going to miss the most this week will be the sidelined Na'il Diggs who was really starting to strut his stuff from th OL position with his speed and agility. All the same they are not playing a juggernaut of an offense in the Detroit Lions.
My Online Betting Action: The Packers -9.5
The rest of my picks are small wagers and will simply be posted as is with who gets my wagering dollars
These are my middle of the road picks, worthy of medium sized bets. For my big bets this weekend:
Top Three Picks
The Cleveland Browns (3-9) at The Buffalo Bills (6-6)
Against the Spread: Browns 4-8-0 | Bills 8-4-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bills -12.5 -100
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bills -11 -108 to -110
Over/Under 38u -110
The Browns had an outstanding offensive performance against the Cincinnati Bengals last week, even though they lost. That was with QB Kelly Holcomb at the helm. He's out for this game with cracked ribs. This leaves rookie Luke McCown taking snaps. Although he did not do a terrible job against NE going 20 of 34 for 277 yards and 2 touchdowns. He did get picked twice and was sacked on three occasions. Rumor has it that after his awful performance last week, RB William Green will play second string to rookie RB Adimchinobe Echemandu. That sounds like desperation, and testing ground for next season. This makes since considering that they have no chance of post season play, and are not good enough to be a spoiler. WR Andre Davis was officially placed on IR and will be out the remainder of the season. Not that the news has any impact.
Cleveland's defense will most likely not see CB Daylon McCutcheon in the lineup. Last weeks game showed just what that does to the secondary. The bright side is that Drew Bledsoe will be the passer for the Bills so that is somewhat offset. There just isn't much else to speak about in terms of the Browns D. They give up 26 points a game, 343 yards -139 on the ground and 203 in the air. They do manage to get picks, but can do very little with them, having gained only 6 points on 14 interceptions. Same thing applies with forced fumbles, 7 but only 6 points to their credit. All this adds up to an overall D ranking of 22nd – 29 against the rush 13 against the pass.
The Bills have something at stake in all of the remaining games. Much like the Bengals they are still in the mathematical hunt for a playoff berth in the incredibly tight AFC. At 6-6 they are tied with Cincinnati and Jacksonville and if the right things happen and they get wins that they should it could be a true race to the finish for those precious Wild Card spots. They Jets, in all likelihood , have one pretty well sewn up. The other one is held by a thin string by Baltimore who has lost their last two and are certainly not a lock against the Giants.
Buffalo has won their last three in spite of Bledsoe's attempts at throwing them away. RB Willis McGahee has gone for over 100 in 4 of his last 6 starts. The last one being just shy at 91. Considering the Dolphins poor rushing D that was somewhat surprising. But Drew did have his best game of the year getting 277 yards, 4 touchdowns and, sit down folks, NO interceptions. Never mind the offense for a moment, it's the defense that should control this game.
Coming in with the 4th overall D and well rounded at 4th against the rush and 9th against the pass and considering the changes in roster for Cleveland, stopping them should not be a huge task. The Bills are +2 in Give-Aways/Take-Aways versus Cleveland's -7, obvious edge to the Bills. They have more at stake and they have not lost a home game since week 4 and have an average win margin of about 16 points. All that as well as an ATS of 8-4-0 doesn't make this a hards pick for a medium sized bet.
My Online Betting Action: The Bills -11
The Philadelphia Eagles (11-1) at The Washington Redskins (4-8)
Against the Spread: Eagles 9-3-0 | Redskins 5-7-0
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET ESPN Night Game
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Eagles -9 -107 Over/Under 37.5u -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Packers -10.5 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Packers -9 -104 to -110
Over/Under 37.5u -110
The Eagles led by the #2 rated QB, Donovan McNabb, handed Green Bay their hats last week, blowing them out 47-17. WR Terrell Owens who was already just under 1000 yards picked up 8 catches for 161 yards and a touchdown. Wasn't the Player of the Game however. That honor was bestowed upon RB Brian Westbrook, who only had 37 yards rushing, but caught 11 passes for 156 yards and 3 touchdowns. WR Todd Pinkston is expected to play, which gives McNabb yet another outlet. For the first time all season, TE L.J. Smith doesn't have some sort of injury asterisk next to his name, More help for Donovan. Although Reno Mahe is doubtful, with the way the Dexter Wynn has played, he may not have a job when he gets healthy anyway.
Philadelphia's defense is statistically average at 12th over all (14th pass and rush). But they get the job done. They one of the better Give-Away/Take-Away margins at +14, but are one of those defenses that are not particularly efficient. Having only 4 defensive scores on 26 take-aways. There again, they kill drives with those forced fumbles and interceptions and they do produce points from the conversions.
Washington newly appointed QB Patrick Ramsey is getting the job done better than last year. But he is still seeing the turf too many times. This is a guy with all the makings of a good quarterback and yet Spurrier and now Gibbs keep putting him in behind an obviously deficient line that cannot keep him safe. In 5 games he has played he has been sacked 14 times. That's nearly half of the number of times he hit the ground in 14 games last season. Gibbs, your back in the NFL, not stock cars. You're also in the NFC and stand no chance of seeing the playoffs. Put Tim Hasselbeck in and save the one thing that you have going for you for next season, when you (or whoever is leading the charge) can build a line that can do something in the form of pass protection. RB Clinton Portis gained 148 yards on the ground, but it was against a Giants team that allows about 138. So take that for what it's worth. The receivers aren't really worth mentioning, when the QB actually has time to throw the ball neither Coles nor Gardner have done anything spectacular. Ok, Gardner has 5 TD's but, save for one game, has gained minimal yardage. Coles is as likely to drop the ball as catch it, so counting on him is like tossing the dice and hoping for snake eyes. But there is the Defense.
The Redskins defense is good, period. 16.8 points a game, 257.4 totals yards – 86.8 rushing 170.7 passing – gives them the overall ranking of #2 with the 3rd best rush and pass D in the league. With Shawn Springs, Sean Taylor, Ryan Clark and Fred Smoot lined up in the secondary they have the ability reek havoc on a passing game. The D may also get a bit of a boost, morally if not physically, with the possible return of LB LaVar Arrington. His impact on the field has to be in question however, considering that he has been sidelined for virtually the entire season with his knee problems. Despite everything that they have going for them on D it seems unlikely that they can do enough to keep the Eagles from another wide margin win.
My Online Betting Action: The Eagles -9
The Detroit Lions (5-7) at The Green Bay Packers (7-5)
Against the Spread: Lions 6-6-0 | Packers 5-7-0
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Packers -9.5 -103 Over/Under 44.5u -110
Current High NFL Betting Line: Packers -11 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line Packers -9.5 -106 to -110
Over/Under 43.5u to 45u -110 to +113
The Lions, after losing a series of close games capped of by week 12's 41-9 routing by the Colts, had to feel like they had finally accomplished something. Since it was against the then 4-7 Cardinals, what it was exactly that they accomplished is anyones guess, but it was at least a moral victory as well as a W. QB Joey Harrington didn't really play that well, going 15 of 27 for 196 yards 1 touchdown and an interception. WR Roy Williams had a bit better of a game than he has of late , snagging 4 for 76 yards and Tai Streets got 3 for 54 yards and a touchdown. But this offense wasn't about the passing game it was all about the running back. Rookie Kevin Jones gained 218 yards, 196 on the ground and 22 in the air. He pulled them out of a couple jams in 3rd down situations and all around played a great game. Let us not forget the other major factor in this win, Jason Hanson. He was 4-4 with 2 from 35+ and 2 from 40+ with a long of 45. When Detroit got him in range he came through in spades.
Detroit's defense had their best game of the season. They picked rookie QB John Navarre 4 times. Kept him under the 50% completion mark (18 of 40) and allowed him just 160 yards. Cb Dre` Bly got two of those interceptions while LB Teddy Lehman and DE James Hall -with a little help from fellow DE Kalimba Edwards- accounted for the other two. With legendary, future Hall of Fame RB, Emmitt Smith (For you Preston) sidelined with a toe injury, the Lions had no trouble manhandling rookie RB Larry Croom, holding him to only 49 yards on 18 carries.
The Packers walked out of Veterans Stadium with their tails tucked firmly between their legs, being embarrassed by the Eagles in a 47-17 thrashing. QB Brett Favre threw 2 interceptions, the first midway in the 1st quarter the second just at the start of the 2nd quarter, which lead to the first scores for the Eagles. Favre's touchdown a game streak ended at 37 furthering his on field depression. Although Ahman Green did play, he was not a factor. Obviously still sore and afraid of being hit in the chest, he managed only 37 yards on 11 carries and only caught 3 passes for minimal yardage. As bad as that was, it was his lack of blocking prowess that hurt at least as much. There is good news to report. Ahman is healthy as is his backup/blocker Najeh Devenport. All the receivers are good to go and with the exception of C Grey Ruegamer, who is expected to play, the entire O line is healthy. This should make things considerably more comfortable for Favre. Plus they are at home and Detroit is just the kind of team you want to meet up with for a rebound win.
The Packers defense is lackluster at best. S Darren Sharper should be quicker this week. CB Ahmad Carroll is coming around, slowly but surely. His counterpart, CB Al Harris is good to harass whoever has the displeasure of lining up across from him. Mark Roman is always a bother running free in the middle. Tackle Grady Jackson is still bothered by his knee but will play. The thing that the Pacs' are going to miss the most this week will be the sidelined Na'il Diggs who was really starting to strut his stuff from th OL position with his speed and agility. All the same they are not playing a juggernaut of an offense in the Detroit Lions.
My Online Betting Action: The Packers -9.5
The rest of my picks are small wagers and will simply be posted as is with who gets my wagering dollars
NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Picks of The Week 14
Duty is ours, results are God's
John Quincy Adams
That is not a shameless, without forethought quote. The meaning is obvious and true, if not in context.
The Match-Ups this week, for the most part, mean something. That means hog wild betting with hopes the blind squirrel will find a few acorns.
Starting with best to worst:
The Cincinnati Bengals (6-6) at The New England Patriots (11-1)
Against the Spread: Bengals 5-6-1 | Patriots 9-1-2
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Patriots -10.5 -103 Over/Under 44u +102
Current High NFL Betting Line: Patriots -12 -105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Patriots -11 -110
Over/Under 44u -110
Anyone who reads this drivel knows that rarely is there a post about a Bengals game, this is the exception to the rule.
Cincinnati in the newly able hands of QB Carson Palmer have done better. Note BETTER, not good. Despite having tossed for 382 yards and 3 touchdowns plus the come from behind drive to set them up for the win, he still managed to find a way to make a bone headed plays and give one up to Reed. RB, Rudi Johnson, returned to his former self, gaining just 56 yards on 19 carries. It was against the very tough defense of the Ravens. But the are going up against an even tougher D in the Patriots (never mind the stats, they are better). WR's Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh are phenomenal receivers, no doubt. Then again so is the hodge podge crew that makes up the secondary for the Pats'.
Defensively the Bengals have showed, off and on, some ability. But it is just too inconsistent to expect to play up to the level that is needed to stay afoot with the likes of New England's Offense. Also, have a peak at the Bengals Injury List. Slowing Corey Dillon down is going to be a mighty big obstacle to overcome. Not to mention keeping down the passing game that is tough to stop. With Cincinnati's premier CB, Deltha O'Neil downgraded to questionable with an ankle injury, this task is made even harder.
The Patriots seem to be the team to beat this year. QB Tom Brady just does the right things, nearly all the time. He now has a completely healthy receiving corp and the running back in Corey Dillon that they have been waiting for. How much can be said of the return of WR Deion Branch, who in just 4½ games has amassed 282 yards and 2 touchdowns. This with him playing hurt for two of those games. You could go on and on, but the ATS speaks for itself. This team wins and wins big!
My Online Betting Action: The Patriots -11 Over 44
The Indianapolis Colts (9-3) at The Houston Texans (5-7)
Against the Spread: Colts 8-3-1 | Texans 6-6-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Colts -10 -102 Over/Under 56.5u -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Colts -11.5 -100
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Colts -10.5 -110 to -115
Over/Under 56.5u to 57u -110
The Colts have determined that their best defense is offense. And they do it well. QB Payton Manning is on his way to breaking every quarterbacks record (some of which he has already done, sorry Marino). He has possibly the best two wide-outs to date in Marvin Harrison and Brandon Stokley. Reggie Wayne isn't any slouch either, mind you. RB Edgerrin James is getting the job done well enough for Manning to pull off his play-action, although watching him do it makes you wonder if he really needs a back to set that up. Man is he amazing with that. Plus you have an O line that is protecting him in the pocket, giving him ample time to look through his receivers, much to Harrison's chagrin.
The Colts defense, well when you can put up 45 points a game, it doesn't seem worth mentioning. However, they have come up with some good late game play that has kept teams from making any kind of comeback.
QB David Carr, with WR's Andre Johnson and Jabar Gaffney, started this season as one of the most explosive and underrated offenses in the NFL. Those days seem to have passed. After being pounded by Denver then pummeled by Indy. They managed to stay in the game against an Ahman-less Green Bay, but still lost 16-13. RB Domanick Davis finally had the game that they had been waiting for in the following week against the Titans, rushing for a season high 129 yards. This was his first 100 yarder so far. Again, it was against the Titans who allow about 120 yards a game on the ground, so putting much stock in that is dubious. His next foe, the Jets, put him back were he belongs. A middle of the road back who, in all likelihood, will not see numbers like he produced in his rookie year again. Oh, and they got hammered, 29-7 with Pennington playing at about 70%.
Believe it or not, the Colts out rank them on D. They give up 24.1 a game, to the Colts 21.9, baffling isn't it. They allow about 244 in the air and about 121 on the ground. That puts them near the bottom of the barrel, with a total of around 365 yards a game. They rank 29th overall - 20th against the rush, 28th against the pass - those numbers are probably not going to be elevated after this game.
My Online Betting Action: The Colts -10.5
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-7) at The San Diego Chargers (9-3)
Against the Spread: Buccaneers 5-5-2 | Chargers 9-1-2
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Chargers -5.5 +101 Over/Under 43u -112
Current High NFL Betting Line: Chargers -6 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Chargers -4.5 –115
Over/Under 43u -110
The Buccaneers have started to play this game like it matters. They are showing signs of the Bucs' we learned to love or hate a couple of seasons ago. To be honest though, you have to look at their opponents over the last few games to put that seeming resurgence into perspective. Against KC in an offense laden battle, they came up with the field goal victory 34-31. That was followed by a loss to Atlanta by 10. A rebound versus the pathetic 49ers bolstered them some as they walked away with a 35-3 win. This was to be followed by a 21-14 loss to a very mediocre Carolina Panthers, who started QB Jake Delhomme with a broken thumb on his throwing arm. They did come up big at home against Atlanta in the rematch, beating them 27-goose egg. However, even though Atlanta is 9-3, they certainly don't play like a 9-3 team. So you have to take that win with a grain of salt.
Tampa's defense, at least against the pass, is a serious threat. The are ranked #1 in that category and 3rd overall. The D against the rush is a horse of a different color. Sitting proudly at 22nd they aren't much of a threat against a decent blocking O line and an RB that can take advantage of it. LaDainian Tomlinson behind one of the best offensive lines in the league can.
San Diego's offense struggled a bit last week against the Broncos. It was a tough game with a lot at stake for both teams. In fact it was just what you would expect in a division rivalry with the division leader being decided by the outcome. For once TE Antonio Gates was not the stud that he has been all season, although he still got in the fray and made some key catches (3rd and 10 to keep a scoring drive alive), just not the big ones and not in the endzone. QB Drew Brees had his least productive game of the season, completing on 14 of his 27 attempts and getting a meager 106 yards. He threw his 1st INT in 194 passes, but it was still only his 4th of the season. This game was the LaDainian Tomlinson - 113 yards and 2 touchdowns against the 7th rushing D - San Diego defensive show.
The Chargers D did all the right things at all the right times. Denver was only able to convert 4 of their 14 3rd down attempts. The Chargers picked QB Jake Plummer's pocket 4 times resulting in 10 points. He was sacked twice and did not throw a touchdown for only the second time this year. Although he did get 278 yards he was only 40% going 16 of 40. RB Reuben Droughns was held to 38 yards on 14 carries but did managed to get into the endzone once. Bottom line, Chargers defense played one of their best games in, arguably, their toughest match-up.
The Chargers should be able to pass against the Bucs', and the rushing game should be as solid as ever.
My Online Betting Action: The Chargers -4.5
Sorry to piecemeal these, but there are my top 3 picks and will be my big bets this week. The rest are soon to follow. I know all three of you are anxiously awaiting my humble opinions.
Duty is ours, results are God's
John Quincy Adams
That is not a shameless, without forethought quote. The meaning is obvious and true, if not in context.
The Match-Ups this week, for the most part, mean something. That means hog wild betting with hopes the blind squirrel will find a few acorns.
Starting with best to worst:
The Cincinnati Bengals (6-6) at The New England Patriots (11-1)
Against the Spread: Bengals 5-6-1 | Patriots 9-1-2
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Patriots -10.5 -103 Over/Under 44u +102
Current High NFL Betting Line: Patriots -12 -105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Patriots -11 -110
Over/Under 44u -110
Anyone who reads this drivel knows that rarely is there a post about a Bengals game, this is the exception to the rule.
Cincinnati in the newly able hands of QB Carson Palmer have done better. Note BETTER, not good. Despite having tossed for 382 yards and 3 touchdowns plus the come from behind drive to set them up for the win, he still managed to find a way to make a bone headed plays and give one up to Reed. RB, Rudi Johnson, returned to his former self, gaining just 56 yards on 19 carries. It was against the very tough defense of the Ravens. But the are going up against an even tougher D in the Patriots (never mind the stats, they are better). WR's Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh are phenomenal receivers, no doubt. Then again so is the hodge podge crew that makes up the secondary for the Pats'.
Defensively the Bengals have showed, off and on, some ability. But it is just too inconsistent to expect to play up to the level that is needed to stay afoot with the likes of New England's Offense. Also, have a peak at the Bengals Injury List. Slowing Corey Dillon down is going to be a mighty big obstacle to overcome. Not to mention keeping down the passing game that is tough to stop. With Cincinnati's premier CB, Deltha O'Neil downgraded to questionable with an ankle injury, this task is made even harder.
The Patriots seem to be the team to beat this year. QB Tom Brady just does the right things, nearly all the time. He now has a completely healthy receiving corp and the running back in Corey Dillon that they have been waiting for. How much can be said of the return of WR Deion Branch, who in just 4½ games has amassed 282 yards and 2 touchdowns. This with him playing hurt for two of those games. You could go on and on, but the ATS speaks for itself. This team wins and wins big!
My Online Betting Action: The Patriots -11 Over 44
The Indianapolis Colts (9-3) at The Houston Texans (5-7)
Against the Spread: Colts 8-3-1 | Texans 6-6-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Colts -10 -102 Over/Under 56.5u -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Colts -11.5 -100
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Colts -10.5 -110 to -115
Over/Under 56.5u to 57u -110
The Colts have determined that their best defense is offense. And they do it well. QB Payton Manning is on his way to breaking every quarterbacks record (some of which he has already done, sorry Marino). He has possibly the best two wide-outs to date in Marvin Harrison and Brandon Stokley. Reggie Wayne isn't any slouch either, mind you. RB Edgerrin James is getting the job done well enough for Manning to pull off his play-action, although watching him do it makes you wonder if he really needs a back to set that up. Man is he amazing with that. Plus you have an O line that is protecting him in the pocket, giving him ample time to look through his receivers, much to Harrison's chagrin.
The Colts defense, well when you can put up 45 points a game, it doesn't seem worth mentioning. However, they have come up with some good late game play that has kept teams from making any kind of comeback.
QB David Carr, with WR's Andre Johnson and Jabar Gaffney, started this season as one of the most explosive and underrated offenses in the NFL. Those days seem to have passed. After being pounded by Denver then pummeled by Indy. They managed to stay in the game against an Ahman-less Green Bay, but still lost 16-13. RB Domanick Davis finally had the game that they had been waiting for in the following week against the Titans, rushing for a season high 129 yards. This was his first 100 yarder so far. Again, it was against the Titans who allow about 120 yards a game on the ground, so putting much stock in that is dubious. His next foe, the Jets, put him back were he belongs. A middle of the road back who, in all likelihood, will not see numbers like he produced in his rookie year again. Oh, and they got hammered, 29-7 with Pennington playing at about 70%.
Believe it or not, the Colts out rank them on D. They give up 24.1 a game, to the Colts 21.9, baffling isn't it. They allow about 244 in the air and about 121 on the ground. That puts them near the bottom of the barrel, with a total of around 365 yards a game. They rank 29th overall - 20th against the rush, 28th against the pass - those numbers are probably not going to be elevated after this game.
My Online Betting Action: The Colts -10.5
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-7) at The San Diego Chargers (9-3)
Against the Spread: Buccaneers 5-5-2 | Chargers 9-1-2
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Chargers -5.5 +101 Over/Under 43u -112
Current High NFL Betting Line: Chargers -6 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Chargers -4.5 –115
Over/Under 43u -110
The Buccaneers have started to play this game like it matters. They are showing signs of the Bucs' we learned to love or hate a couple of seasons ago. To be honest though, you have to look at their opponents over the last few games to put that seeming resurgence into perspective. Against KC in an offense laden battle, they came up with the field goal victory 34-31. That was followed by a loss to Atlanta by 10. A rebound versus the pathetic 49ers bolstered them some as they walked away with a 35-3 win. This was to be followed by a 21-14 loss to a very mediocre Carolina Panthers, who started QB Jake Delhomme with a broken thumb on his throwing arm. They did come up big at home against Atlanta in the rematch, beating them 27-goose egg. However, even though Atlanta is 9-3, they certainly don't play like a 9-3 team. So you have to take that win with a grain of salt.
Tampa's defense, at least against the pass, is a serious threat. The are ranked #1 in that category and 3rd overall. The D against the rush is a horse of a different color. Sitting proudly at 22nd they aren't much of a threat against a decent blocking O line and an RB that can take advantage of it. LaDainian Tomlinson behind one of the best offensive lines in the league can.
San Diego's offense struggled a bit last week against the Broncos. It was a tough game with a lot at stake for both teams. In fact it was just what you would expect in a division rivalry with the division leader being decided by the outcome. For once TE Antonio Gates was not the stud that he has been all season, although he still got in the fray and made some key catches (3rd and 10 to keep a scoring drive alive), just not the big ones and not in the endzone. QB Drew Brees had his least productive game of the season, completing on 14 of his 27 attempts and getting a meager 106 yards. He threw his 1st INT in 194 passes, but it was still only his 4th of the season. This game was the LaDainian Tomlinson - 113 yards and 2 touchdowns against the 7th rushing D - San Diego defensive show.
The Chargers D did all the right things at all the right times. Denver was only able to convert 4 of their 14 3rd down attempts. The Chargers picked QB Jake Plummer's pocket 4 times resulting in 10 points. He was sacked twice and did not throw a touchdown for only the second time this year. Although he did get 278 yards he was only 40% going 16 of 40. RB Reuben Droughns was held to 38 yards on 14 carries but did managed to get into the endzone once. Bottom line, Chargers defense played one of their best games in, arguably, their toughest match-up.
The Chargers should be able to pass against the Bucs', and the rushing game should be as solid as ever.
My Online Betting Action: The Chargers -4.5
Sorry to piecemeal these, but there are my top 3 picks and will be my big bets this week. The rest are soon to follow. I know all three of you are anxiously awaiting my humble opinions.
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