NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Picks of The Week 14, Part Duex

These are my middle of the road picks, worthy of medium sized bets. For my big bets this weekend:

   Top Three Picks


The Cleveland Browns (3-9) at The Buffalo Bills (6-6)
Against the Spread: Browns 4-8-0 | Bills 8-4-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bills -12.5 -100
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bills -11 -108 to -110
Over/Under 38u -110


The Browns had an outstanding offensive performance against the Cincinnati Bengals last week, even though they lost. That was with QB Kelly Holcomb at the helm. He's out for this game with cracked ribs. This leaves rookie Luke McCown taking snaps. Although he did not do a terrible job against NE going 20 of 34 for 277 yards and 2 touchdowns. He did get picked twice and was sacked on three occasions. Rumor has it that after his awful performance last week, RB William Green will play second string to rookie RB Adimchinobe Echemandu. That sounds like desperation, and testing ground for next season. This makes since considering that they have no chance of post season play, and are not good enough to be a spoiler. WR Andre Davis was officially placed on IR and will be out the remainder of the season. Not that the news has any impact.

Cleveland's defense will most likely not see CB Daylon McCutcheon in the lineup. Last weeks game showed just what that does to the secondary. The bright side is that Drew Bledsoe will be the passer for the Bills so that is somewhat offset. There just isn't much else to speak about in terms of the Browns D. They give up 26 points a game, 343 yards -139 on the ground and 203 in the air. They do manage to get picks, but can do very little with them, having gained only 6 points on 14 interceptions. Same thing applies with forced fumbles, 7 but only 6 points to their credit. All this adds up to an overall D ranking of 22nd – 29 against the rush 13 against the pass.

The Bills have something at stake in all of the remaining games. Much like the Bengals they are still in the mathematical hunt for a playoff berth in the incredibly tight AFC. At 6-6 they are tied with Cincinnati and Jacksonville and if the right things happen and they get wins that they should it could be a true race to the finish for those precious Wild Card spots. They Jets, in all likelihood , have one pretty well sewn up. The other one is held by a thin string by Baltimore who has lost their last two and are certainly not a lock against the Giants.

Buffalo has won their last three in spite of Bledsoe's attempts at throwing them away. RB Willis McGahee has gone for over 100 in 4 of his last 6 starts. The last one being just shy at 91. Considering the Dolphins poor rushing D that was somewhat surprising. But Drew did have his best game of the year getting 277 yards, 4 touchdowns and, sit down folks, NO interceptions. Never mind the offense for a moment, it's the defense that should control this game.

Coming in with the 4th overall D and well rounded at 4th against the rush and 9th against the pass and considering the changes in roster for Cleveland, stopping them should not be a huge task. The Bills are +2 in Give-Aways/Take-Aways versus Cleveland's -7, obvious edge to the Bills. They have more at stake and they have not lost a home game since week 4 and have an average win margin of about 16 points. All that as well as an ATS of 8-4-0 doesn't make this a hards pick for a medium sized bet.

My Online Betting Action: The Bills -11


The Philadelphia Eagles (11-1) at The Washington Redskins (4-8)
Against the Spread: Eagles 9-3-0 | Redskins 5-7-0
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET ESPN Night Game
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Eagles -9 -107 Over/Under 37.5u -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Packers -10.5 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Packers -9 -104 to -110
Over/Under 37.5u -110


The Eagles led by the #2 rated QB, Donovan McNabb, handed Green Bay their hats last week, blowing them out 47-17. WR Terrell Owens who was already just under 1000 yards picked up 8 catches for 161 yards and a touchdown. Wasn't the Player of the Game however. That honor was bestowed upon RB Brian Westbrook, who only had 37 yards rushing, but caught 11 passes for 156 yards and 3 touchdowns. WR Todd Pinkston is expected to play, which gives McNabb yet another outlet. For the first time all season, TE L.J. Smith doesn't have some sort of injury asterisk next to his name, More help for Donovan. Although Reno Mahe is doubtful, with the way the Dexter Wynn has played, he may not have a job when he gets healthy anyway.

Philadelphia's defense is statistically average at 12th over all (14th pass and rush). But they get the job done. They one of the better Give-Away/Take-Away margins at +14, but are one of those defenses that are not particularly efficient. Having only 4 defensive scores on 26 take-aways. There again, they kill drives with those forced fumbles and interceptions and they do produce points from the conversions.

Washington newly appointed QB Patrick Ramsey is getting the job done better than last year. But he is still seeing the turf too many times. This is a guy with all the makings of a good quarterback and yet Spurrier and now Gibbs keep putting him in behind an obviously deficient line that cannot keep him safe. In 5 games he has played he has been sacked 14 times. That's nearly half of the number of times he hit the ground in 14 games last season. Gibbs, your back in the NFL, not stock cars. You're also in the NFC and stand no chance of seeing the playoffs. Put Tim Hasselbeck in and save the one thing that you have going for you for next season, when you (or whoever is leading the charge) can build a line that can do something in the form of pass protection. RB Clinton Portis gained 148 yards on the ground, but it was against a Giants team that allows about 138. So take that for what it's worth. The receivers aren't really worth mentioning, when the QB actually has time to throw the ball neither Coles nor Gardner have done anything spectacular. Ok, Gardner has 5 TD's but, save for one game, has gained minimal yardage. Coles is as likely to drop the ball as catch it, so counting on him is like tossing the dice and hoping for snake eyes. But there is the Defense.

The Redskins defense is good, period. 16.8 points a game, 257.4 totals yards – 86.8 rushing 170.7 passing – gives them the overall ranking of #2 with the 3rd best rush and pass D in the league. With Shawn Springs, Sean Taylor, Ryan Clark and Fred Smoot lined up in the secondary they have the ability reek havoc on a passing game. The D may also get a bit of a boost, morally if not physically, with the possible return of LB LaVar Arrington. His impact on the field has to be in question however, considering that he has been sidelined for virtually the entire season with his knee problems. Despite everything that they have going for them on D it seems unlikely that they can do enough to keep the Eagles from another wide margin win.

My Online Betting Action: The Eagles -9


The Detroit Lions (5-7) at The Green Bay Packers (7-5)
Against the Spread: Lions 6-6-0 | Packers 5-7-0
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Packers -9.5 -103 Over/Under 44.5u -110
Current High NFL Betting Line: Packers -11 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line Packers -9.5 -106 to -110
Over/Under 43.5u to 45u -110 to +113

The Lions, after losing a series of close games capped of by week 12's 41-9 routing by the Colts, had to feel like they had finally accomplished something. Since it was against the then 4-7 Cardinals, what it was exactly that they accomplished is anyones guess, but it was at least a moral victory as well as a W. QB Joey Harrington didn't really play that well, going 15 of 27 for 196 yards 1 touchdown and an interception. WR Roy Williams had a bit better of a game than he has of late , snagging 4 for 76 yards and Tai Streets got 3 for 54 yards and a touchdown. But this offense wasn't about the passing game it was all about the running back. Rookie Kevin Jones gained 218 yards, 196 on the ground and 22 in the air. He pulled them out of a couple jams in 3rd down situations and all around played a great game. Let us not forget the other major factor in this win, Jason Hanson. He was 4-4 with 2 from 35+ and 2 from 40+ with a long of 45. When Detroit got him in range he came through in spades.

Detroit's defense had their best game of the season. They picked rookie QB John Navarre 4 times. Kept him under the 50% completion mark (18 of 40) and allowed him just 160 yards. Cb Dre` Bly got two of those interceptions while LB Teddy Lehman and DE James Hall -with a little help from fellow DE Kalimba Edwards- accounted for the other two. With legendary, future Hall of Fame RB, Emmitt Smith (For you Preston) sidelined with a toe injury, the Lions had no trouble manhandling rookie RB Larry Croom, holding him to only 49 yards on 18 carries.

The Packers walked out of Veterans Stadium with their tails tucked firmly between their legs, being embarrassed by the Eagles in a 47-17 thrashing. QB Brett Favre threw 2 interceptions, the first midway in the 1st quarter the second just at the start of the 2nd quarter, which lead to the first scores for the Eagles. Favre's touchdown a game streak ended at 37 furthering his on field depression. Although Ahman Green did play, he was not a factor. Obviously still sore and afraid of being hit in the chest, he managed only 37 yards on 11 carries and only caught 3 passes for minimal yardage. As bad as that was, it was his lack of blocking prowess that hurt at least as much. There is good news to report. Ahman is healthy as is his backup/blocker Najeh Devenport. All the receivers are good to go and with the exception of C Grey Ruegamer, who is expected to play, the entire O line is healthy. This should make things considerably more comfortable for Favre. Plus they are at home and Detroit is just the kind of team you want to meet up with for a rebound win.

The Packers defense is lackluster at best. S Darren Sharper should be quicker this week. CB Ahmad Carroll is coming around, slowly but surely. His counterpart, CB Al Harris is good to harass whoever has the displeasure of lining up across from him. Mark Roman is always a bother running free in the middle. Tackle Grady Jackson is still bothered by his knee but will play. The thing that the Pacs' are going to miss the most this week will be the sidelined Na'il Diggs who was really starting to strut his stuff from th OL position with his speed and agility. All the same they are not playing a juggernaut of an offense in the Detroit Lions.


My Online Betting Action: The Packers -9.5


The rest of my picks are small wagers and will simply be posted as is with who gets my wagering dollars