NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Picks of The Week 14

Duty is ours, results are God's
John Quincy Adams

That is not a shameless, without forethought quote. The meaning is obvious and true, if not in context.

The Match-Ups this week, for the most part, mean something. That means hog wild betting with hopes the blind squirrel will find a few acorns.

Starting with best to worst:

The Cincinnati Bengals (6-6) at The New England Patriots (11-1)
Against the Spread: Bengals 5-6-1 | Patriots 9-1-2
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Patriots -10.5 -103 Over/Under 44u +102
Current High NFL Betting Line: Patriots -12 -105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Patriots -11 -110
Over/Under 44u -110

Anyone who reads this drivel knows that rarely is there a post about a Bengals game, this is the exception to the rule.

Cincinnati in the newly able hands of QB Carson Palmer have done better. Note BETTER, not good. Despite having tossed for 382 yards and 3 touchdowns plus the come from behind drive to set them up for the win, he still managed to find a way to make a bone headed plays and give one up to Reed. RB, Rudi Johnson, returned to his former self, gaining just 56 yards on 19 carries. It was against the very tough defense of the Ravens. But the are going up against an even tougher D in the Patriots (never mind the stats, they are better). WR's Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh are phenomenal receivers, no doubt. Then again so is the hodge podge crew that makes up the secondary for the Pats'.

Defensively the Bengals have showed, off and on, some ability. But it is just too inconsistent to expect to play up to the level that is needed to stay afoot with the likes of New England's Offense. Also, have a peak at the Bengals Injury List. Slowing Corey Dillon down is going to be a mighty big obstacle to overcome. Not to mention keeping down the passing game that is tough to stop. With Cincinnati's premier CB, Deltha O'Neil downgraded to questionable with an ankle injury, this task is made even harder.

The Patriots seem to be the team to beat this year. QB Tom Brady just does the right things, nearly all the time. He now has a completely healthy receiving corp and the running back in Corey Dillon that they have been waiting for. How much can be said of the return of WR Deion Branch, who in just 4½ games has amassed 282 yards and 2 touchdowns. This with him playing hurt for two of those games. You could go on and on, but the ATS speaks for itself. This team wins and wins big!

My Online Betting Action: The Patriots -11 Over 44

The Indianapolis Colts (9-3) at The Houston Texans (5-7)
Against the Spread: Colts 8-3-1 | Texans 6-6-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Colts -10 -102 Over/Under 56.5u -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Colts -11.5 -100
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Colts -10.5 -110 to -115
Over/Under 56.5u to 57u -110

The Colts have determined that their best defense is offense. And they do it well. QB Payton Manning is on his way to breaking every quarterbacks record (some of which he has already done, sorry Marino). He has possibly the best two wide-outs to date in Marvin Harrison and Brandon Stokley. Reggie Wayne isn't any slouch either, mind you. RB Edgerrin James is getting the job done well enough for Manning to pull off his play-action, although watching him do it makes you wonder if he really needs a back to set that up. Man is he amazing with that. Plus you have an O line that is protecting him in the pocket, giving him ample time to look through his receivers, much to Harrison's chagrin.

The Colts defense, well when you can put up 45 points a game, it doesn't seem worth mentioning. However, they have come up with some good late game play that has kept teams from making any kind of comeback.

QB David Carr, with WR's Andre Johnson and Jabar Gaffney, started this season as one of the most explosive and underrated offenses in the NFL. Those days seem to have passed. After being pounded by Denver then pummeled by Indy. They managed to stay in the game against an Ahman-less Green Bay, but still lost 16-13. RB Domanick Davis finally had the game that they had been waiting for in the following week against the Titans, rushing for a season high 129 yards. This was his first 100 yarder so far. Again, it was against the Titans who allow about 120 yards a game on the ground, so putting much stock in that is dubious. His next foe, the Jets, put him back were he belongs. A middle of the road back who, in all likelihood, will not see numbers like he produced in his rookie year again. Oh, and they got hammered, 29-7 with Pennington playing at about 70%.

Believe it or not, the Colts out rank them on D. They give up 24.1 a game, to the Colts 21.9, baffling isn't it. They allow about 244 in the air and about 121 on the ground. That puts them near the bottom of the barrel, with a total of around 365 yards a game. They rank 29th overall - 20th against the rush, 28th against the pass - those numbers are probably not going to be elevated after this game.

My Online Betting Action: The Colts -10.5


The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-7) at The San Diego Chargers (9-3)
Against the Spread: Buccaneers 5-5-2 | Chargers 9-1-2
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Chargers -5.5 +101 Over/Under 43u -112
Current High NFL Betting Line: Chargers -6 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Chargers -4.5 –115
Over/Under 43u -110

The Buccaneers have started to play this game like it matters. They are showing signs of the Bucs' we learned to love or hate a couple of seasons ago. To be honest though, you have to look at their opponents over the last few games to put that seeming resurgence into perspective. Against KC in an offense laden battle, they came up with the field goal victory 34-31. That was followed by a loss to Atlanta by 10. A rebound versus the pathetic 49ers bolstered them some as they walked away with a 35-3 win. This was to be followed by a 21-14 loss to a very mediocre Carolina Panthers, who started QB Jake Delhomme with a broken thumb on his throwing arm. They did come up big at home against Atlanta in the rematch, beating them 27-goose egg. However, even though Atlanta is 9-3, they certainly don't play like a 9-3 team. So you have to take that win with a grain of salt.

Tampa's defense, at least against the pass, is a serious threat. The are ranked #1 in that category and 3rd overall. The D against the rush is a horse of a different color. Sitting proudly at 22nd they aren't much of a threat against a decent blocking O line and an RB that can take advantage of it. LaDainian Tomlinson behind one of the best offensive lines in the league can.

San Diego's offense struggled a bit last week against the Broncos. It was a tough game with a lot at stake for both teams. In fact it was just what you would expect in a division rivalry with the division leader being decided by the outcome. For once TE Antonio Gates was not the stud that he has been all season, although he still got in the fray and made some key catches (3rd and 10 to keep a scoring drive alive), just not the big ones and not in the endzone. QB Drew Brees had his least productive game of the season, completing on 14 of his 27 attempts and getting a meager 106 yards. He threw his 1st INT in 194 passes, but it was still only his 4th of the season. This game was the LaDainian Tomlinson - 113 yards and 2 touchdowns against the 7th rushing D - San Diego defensive show.

The Chargers D did all the right things at all the right times. Denver was only able to convert 4 of their 14 3rd down attempts. The Chargers picked QB Jake Plummer's pocket 4 times resulting in 10 points. He was sacked twice and did not throw a touchdown for only the second time this year. Although he did get 278 yards he was only 40% going 16 of 40. RB Reuben Droughns was held to 38 yards on 14 carries but did managed to get into the endzone once. Bottom line, Chargers defense played one of their best games in, arguably, their toughest match-up.

The Chargers should be able to pass against the Bucs', and the rushing game should be as solid as ever.

My Online Betting Action: The Chargers -4.5

Sorry to piecemeal these, but there are my top 3 picks and will be my big bets this week. The rest are soon to follow. I know all three of you are anxiously awaiting my humble opinions.