NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Picks of The Week 16

1 for 1 so far. Let's see what Santa brings me tomorrow.

The NFL Saturday Match-Up

The Oakland Raiders (5-9) at The Kansas City Chiefs (6-8)
NFL Against the Spread:   Raiders 5-9-0 | Chiefs 6-8-0
Game Time: 5:00 PM ET CBS
Current High NFL Betting Line: Chiefs -9 -100
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Chiefs -7.5 -110 to -117
Over/Under 58u to 59.5u -110
With The Chiefs still mathematically in the running there is at least something riding on this game.

Three weeks ago the Raiders returned home after a hard fought win over Denver in Mile High, with equally high hopes of another win against their Division rivals, Kansas City Chiefs. Those hopes were kept alive for 30 minutes as each team retired to the locker room at halftime with Oakland ahead by 10 points and little doubt that their manhandling of the Chiefs would continue for the remaining 30 minutes of the game. That began to fade within 4:37 of the second half.

After a rather dismal start to the game, QB Trent Green as well as back-up RB Larry Johnson began what was to be a nearly flawless second half, sparked by a 4 ½ minute beginning drive capped off by a five yard TD run by Johnson. Trent Green went 14 of 15 for 229 yards. This included a tie breaking, 70 yard strike to WR Eddie Kennison, with 124 ticks left on the clock. Larry Johnson ran for 118 yards on 20 carries and a rushing TD. He also caught 3 for 56 yards and a receiving touchdown.

But there was more to the Chiefs Come-From-Behind win.

Kansas City all but completely shutdown the Oakland offense, allowing QB Kerry Collins to lead his team on only one scoring drive late in the third quarter. That ended with the only points for Oakland in the second half, with a 26 yard TD pass from Collins to Ronald Curry 42 seconds into the 4th quarter. Collins had one more shot late in the 4th when he hooked up with John Stone for 18 yards and then an 11 yard pass to J.R. Redmond to bring the Raiders into KC territory with about a 1:30 left in the game. But Kansas Cities D came up big for the next four plays, breaking up passes intended for Jerry Porter, Stone and Doug Gabrial as well as sacking Collins on 2-10 for a 9 yard loss.

Oakland rebounded by getting blown out by Atlanta 35-10. Then picked up the 40-35 victory at home against the Titans.

Considering they entered the second half of the season 2-6, the fact that they are sitting at 5-9 is some redemption. They are .500 in their last six and with the exception of the Falcons game have been “in” each game.

The Chiefs are a mathematical possibility for post-season play in the incredibly tight AFC. They are on a three game winning streak, including last weeks pummeling of the Denver Broncos. Trent Green has stepped it up a notch with the absence of Priest Holmes as had RB Derrick Blaylock.

Blaylock, unfortunately for the Chiefs, will probably ot get the nod to start, but Larry Johnson will start and did pretty well against the Raiders in Oakland just a few weeks ago. WR Johnnie Morton will more than likely miss his second straight. What's worse, is the fact that Dante' Hall, who has been filling in for Morton, twisted an ankle during practice and is questionable for tomorrows game. Ever the optimist, Coach Dick Vermeil holds out hope that Hall will be ready to go come game-time. KC's hoping he is right. Depending on Chris Horn's game-time status, Samie Parker my get his 1st start of the season.

Moving on to the rest of injuries worth noting.

DE Vonnie Holliday will miss his second straight, this isn't as bad as it seems. Rookie Jared Allen leads the D in sacks with 8 from RDE, so the shoes have been amply filled.

Gout has Trent Green caught between a Fork and a hard place if 10 time Pro Bowler, OT Willie Roaf can't start. Pain in his feet have kept him out of two days of practice. This means that if he can't go, Trent's blind left side will be in the hands of two unproven commodities in Brett Williams and rookie Kevin Sampson.

On to the Stats:

The Raiders are mediocre across the board offensively. Averaging 20 points a game on a 326yds per game - 251 in the air and a dead last 74 rushing. Their defense is much worse, coming in last in average points against at 28.4. They allow 375 passing and 130 rushing per game. These are not numbers you want to have going up against an offense like that of the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Chiefs offensive numbers are very good. They are the second highest scoring team with an average per game total of 31.5 points. They get that via a league leading 415.5 yards a game – 264.2 in the air and 151.4 on the ground – this without Holmes for the past 4½ games.

The Chiefs are 3-4 both on the road and at home, so being in KC this season has not big as big of an advantage as it has been in past seasons. Oakland, on the other hand has been slightly worse on the road at 2-5.

Other points worth mentioning are the fact that the Chiefs are 2-2 in Divisional games, while Oakland is 1-4. KC is 5-5 in AFC match-ups to Oakland's 3-7.

So with all that nonsense in mind and the simple fact that the Chiefs are a more talented team with more at stake, with their hopes (even slim as the hopes may be) of post-season play on the line, this game is worth a couple of small wagers.

My Online Betting Action: The Chiefs -7 & The Over 59

The Over is based on the scoring ability of KC and the fact that their average totals over the last 8 games is 65.3. Additionaly the total has broken the 60 point mark in 6 of their last 8 and in all of their last four, including the loss to San Diego.

Recent Trends
•Over is 5-2 in the Raiders last seven on the road.
•OAK is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
•OAK is 1-7 ATS as a road dog of 7.5-10pts.
•Over is 10-2 in the Chiefs last 12 played in Dec.
•Over is 12-4 in KC's last 16 vs. Div. Opponents.
•KC is 3-0 ATS in December games this season.

The Denver Broncos (8-6) at The Tennessee Titans (4-10)
NFL Against the Spread:   Broncos 4-7-3 | Titans 4-10-0
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET ESPN NFL Saturday Night Game
Current High NFL Betting Line: Broncos -4.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Broncos -3.5 -115
Over/Under 50u to 50.5u -106 to -110
Not with the Popes money.

Even though Denver is in a must win situation tomorrow as well as next week to have any hopes of seeing the playoffs, their game play just doesn't give any value to this game from a wagering perspective.

The Titans are trying stuff and players out, knowing that their season will be over in two weeks. QB Billy Volek is being allowed to stretch his wings and throw the ball around. With RB Chris Brown sidelined, Antowain Smith will share duty with Robert Holcombe obviously. What isn't as obvious is RB Troy Fleming who is rumored to be seeing more carries the next couple of games.

These are all problems for a team in a situation like that of the Bronco's. They are going to be starting their best players, but may see a lot of unknowns (more play calling than players) on the field which can be very distracting. Particularly to defenses that haven't seen films on certain guys and have no idea what to expect from an offense that has nothing to lose by trying out some new material.

If you want some action on this game just for excitements sake, the Over/Under at 50 seems a bit high, so the Under may not be quite as bad as lighting your cigar with a Ben Franklin.


My Online Betting Action: None

Recent Trends
•Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.
•Under is 6-1 in the Broncos last seven away.
•DEN is 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight overall.
•TEN is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
•Over is 5-1 in TEN's six vs. AFC West Opponents.
•TEN is 1-7 ATS in their last eight played in Dec.

Merry Christmas Everybody!

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Picks of The Week 16

The NFL Friday Match-Up

The Green Bay Packers (8-6) at The Minnesota Vikings (8-6)
Against the Spread: Packers 5-9-0 | Vikings 7-7-0
Game Time: 3:00 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Vikings -3 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Vikings -3 -120
Over/Under 56u to 56.5u -110
Holy Mackerel what a game...

One thing is for sure, nothing...

The Over has all kinds of potential.

Neither Green Bay nor Minnesota can mount anything resembling a defense based on the way they have played the second half of the season.

Green Bay has allowed an average of 29 points a game in the last 3 and 25 in their last 6.

Minnesota has allowed an average of 26 points a game in the last 3 and 24.5 in their last 6.

When they last met the total was 65 with the Packers edging to the victory on Ryan Longwell's 33 yarder in the waining seconds of the game. But one must remember that game was played sans the Vikings star, wide receiver Randy Moss.

The Packer's are going into this game without a key situational receiver in Robert Ferguson. This is going to put a little more pressure on Antonio Chatman. The good news is that Chatman does have good hands and is a solid route runner, if maybe a bit to the small side. Let us not forget that the #2 Ranked WR, Javon Walker, will be a nice offset to the Vikings Randy Moss.

Najeh Davenport is still bothered with his ribs, but Ahman Green appears to be well healed, having gained 94 yards on 15 carries against the stout rushing D of Jacksonville.

Green Bay's defense is much as it has been for the better part of the season, in disarray and banged up. Grady Jackson is probable, but the bigger problem there is that his sub, James Lee, is out because of his knee. This means that Larry Smith will play sub for Jackson. There is also the fact that Jackson could go down altogether which would put the spotlight on Smith. Then we have the rest of the line. Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila has a sprained neck but is probable. KGB's numbers have been so hot and cold this season however, that who shows up is listed as questionable. Na'il Diggs is questionable and is rostered as back-up to Paris Lenon, who has been the starter at LB the last 2 games. Then you have the whole secondary fiasco.

There is real talent there in Sharper, Roman, Hawthorne and of course Al Harris yet something just doesn't gel. These guys should not be getting burned as often as they seem to be. Laying it off on coaching or the enforcement of the contact rule could allow for some leniency, except other CB's with less raw talent are doing a better job. You can excuse Ahmad Carroll for giving up a couple big plays, you can't with the vets. The veterans ought to know better and be quicker to read the routes and make adjustments to keep receivers from getting behind them so often. They should not be getting the amount of penalties that they are. In point of fact the secondary is not fundamentally sound, not by a long shot.

A statement made by Sharper probably sums it up best. When asked what the Packer's defensive style was he replied, “I don't know, I don't even know”.

Minnesota is going to be at home with their full compliment of receivers alive and well. Randy Moss, for all intents and purposes, appears to have most, if not all, of his speed back. Even having 90% Moss is going to be a handful for Al Harris. Nate Burleson stepped up big time when Moss first went down and has now made a solid name for himself. He's grabbed six in the endzone since then, one in each game that Moss was sidelined and 2 last week against Detroit. There's also Marcus Robinson, who's no slouch with his 603 yards and 7 TD's.

When TE Jimmy Kleinsasser went out early in the season their was serious concern about the position. Those concerns have long since been set aside as Jermaine Wiggins has filled the gap very nicely. He's in the top 10 amongst his peers and has 4 touchdowns to his credit, putting him tied for 3rd overall in that stat. Not counting Gates because he's a freak of nature with almost 1000 yards receiving and 12 TD's. Those aren't tight end numbers, those are WR numbers and damned good ones at that.

Onterrio Smith is ailing with the flu, but Michael Bennett was slated to start against the Packer's anyway. Smith should be available for situational play and may do a little kick returning. Although center Cory Withrow, has been pretty good at filling in for Matt Birk, having allowed only 2 sacks in his 4 starts, the Vikings have got to be pleased that Birk stands a good chance of starting.

So the ramblings still leaves the ultimate question unanswered. Is this game worth action?

Both teams are vying for the NFC North Division Title.

Green Bay is already guaranteed a playoff berth, but would clinching the Division Title with a victory in the Dome has got to sound very sweet to the players. There's even more to the story than that. A win would give them Home Field advantage in the post season opener and with the injury to the Eagles Terrell Owens, the NFC is wide open in the postseason. None of that changes what's at stake for Minnesota however.

If the Vikings win they will be in the drivers seat in the North and be playoff bound. But, if they lose all is still not lost. They would only miss post season play if the Panthers and the Rams win both of their remaining games and Seattle wins one of theirs. That's assuming they lose to the Packers as well as the Redskins, leaving them 8-8. Obviously a victory in either game will clinch a berth.

In this gamblers view the Packers really have more at stake and more motivation to win. It will establish them as a solid contender in the NFC, give them at least one more game in front of their fans and a great start to the playoffs.


My Online Betting Action: The Packers +3 &
The Over 55.5 Did not get bet in on time, Over/Under had gone to 57.5

Recent Trends
•Over is 8-0 in the last eight meetings.
•Over is 12-4 in GB's last 16 vs. Division opponents.
•GB have lost the last three ATS played in Dec.
•MIN is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
•Under is 5-2 in MIN's last seven played in Dec.
•MIN is 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.