Monday, October 04, 2004

NFL Online Betting Against the Spread Week 4 Monday Night Football

The Kansas City Chiefs(0-3) at The Baltimore Ravens(2-1)
Opening NFL Betting Line Ravens -4.5 -110 Over/Under 41.5 -110
Current High -7 -110
Current Low -5.5 -110
Over/Under 40.5-41.5 -110

It's Monday Night Football and boy oh boy do we have a match-up. NOT!

The Chiefs come into tonights game already having dropped more games than they did all season last year. Unfortunately for them I do not see the bleeding being stopped in Baltimore tonight. They have dismal offense with the exception of premiere running back Priest Holmes. This is not to say that they have no offense, it's just missing too many pieces. With WR Eddie Kennison not expected to play, Donte' Hall, minor though it may be (lips), playing hurt and RB Priest Holmes starting with an ankle injury, it's probably not even going to show the spark of life that it did last week against Houston.

The Ravens are not a whole lot better when it comes to offense. Although they rank near the bottom of the pile (25th overall) the come in 2nd rushing the ball. Here's the kicker, even though the Chiefs' are not far behind that number at 5 the Ravens can stop the rush (10th ranked) whereas the Chiefs cannot(29th).

So where does that leave us as far as a wager on this game goes? Well, since you asked, not as bad as it may look. I don't think that you can count on the Ravens to stop the Chiefs completely. Holmes will be Holmes after all and with TE Tony Gonzalez attracting double coverage, receivers Johnnie Morton, Donte' Hall and to a lesser degree youngster Chris Horn are going to get looks. So taking the Ravens to cover a TD, more or less, might be a taller order than it appears at first glance. By the same token, saying that the Chiefs will stay in it to the end as they did against the Texans' is equally treacherous. So is there money worth spending on this game? I think so. The Under at 41.5 or so. Both teams are going to try and establish a running game against the other. This is going to eat up time. Ravens' running back Jamal Lewis can get it done and I believe that the same can be said of Holmes. Barring him be seriously hampered with his ankle problem he will be able to ground out some yards. More importantly though is the fact that neither team has much in the air. That almost forces them into ground warfare even if they weren't planning it.

Bottom line, I have money on the Under at 41.5.