NFL Pick of the Week: 10/23/2004

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Week 7 Pick of The Week

The Philadelphia Eagles (5-0) at The Cleveland Browns (3-3)
Against the Spread: Eagles 5-0-0 | Browns 3-3-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Eagles -7 -110 Over/Under 42 -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Eagles -8 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Eagles -7 –104 to -115
Over/Under 41 to 41.5 -110

The Eagles are one of only three unbeaten teams in the NFL and are in a class by themselves, at least to some degree, based on their “strength of schedule” so far. They have only played one team that is under .500, which is something that neither of the other two unbeaten teams can lay claim to (Jets one .500+ team, Patriots two .500+ teams). They have faced and overcome injury issues, like the pre-season loss of running back Correll Buckhalter, and more recently Jon Ritchie. They will, in all likelihood, be starting with Jeremiah Trotter at middle linebacker in place of the injured Mark Simoneau. Despite a great start, tight end L.J. Smith's shoulder injury has kept him away from the stardom that many predicted for him this season. Yet through these and other set-backs they have won every game by double digits. Quarter back Donovan McNabb has looked better this year than ever. The acquisition of wide receiver Terrell Owens has turned out to be a fantastic move, allowing McNabb to open up the pass attack much more than in seasons past. Running back Brian Westbrook has responded well to the additional workload. They have a defense that allows the fewest points in the NFL in spite of their less than average ranking (17th overall). I have ridden the coattails of this team all season and see no reason to stop this week.

The Cleveland Browns are in a tough spot. They started the season with high hopes, after drafting tight end Kellen Winslow and picking up free agent quarter back Jeff Garcia, for their offense. Those hopes began to fade in the pre-season as it became apparent that their offensive line was not up to par. Garcia began his high pitched complaints about not getting enough playing time. Then they lost Winslow for the season in week two against the Cowboys. That dashed the last of the hope that most folks had for their offense this season. Cleveland has also faced it's share of injuries elsewhere on the field but has managed to put up a decent defense anyway (13th overall ranking). The deal that sent wide receiver Quincy Morgan to Dallas for receiver Antonio Bryant should help them. I think that Garcia is going to be more comfortable throwing the ball to him than he was to Morgan (I have no REAL explanation for this just a gut feeling). But that help is not going to do much this week. With wide receiver Andre Davis ailing with a toe injury and the limited reps that Antonio Bryant has seen, Andre King and Dennis Northcutt will most probably start. Their Decent defense is only going to carry them so far, and the Eagles offensive display on the road is going to be too much for them. This isn't going to be the Bengals...

I know this seems like a lot of talk for this game but it is my Pick of the Week, so I figured I ought to justify it a bit.

My Online Betting Action: The Philadelphia Eagles -7.

The San Diego Chargers (3-3) at The Carolina Panthers (1-4)
Against the Spread: Chargers 4-1-1 | Panthers 2-3-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Panthers -3 -110 Over/Under 42 -110
Current High NFL Betting Line: Panthers -3 -110 to -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Panthers -2.5 -120
Over/Under 41.5 to 42 -110

The Chargers have been a pleasant surprise as of late. Quarterback Drew Brees was in the uncomfortable position of worrying about his job after a disappointing 2003 season. He got off to a shaky start this year, but has seemed to turn things around bringing his quarterback rating of 67.5 (4th worst) up to a respectable 84.6. So far he is throwing more touchdowns than interceptions, and appears to be getting the handle on being a QB in the NFL (yeah I know that I have said a few disparaging things about the guy). The Chargers are 3-0 against the spread their last three outings, two being outright wins as underdogs. Running back LaDainian Tomlinson is looking healthier, having practiced this Thursday, and his counterpart Jesse Chatman has the greenlight for Sunday. This should allow Brees to take advantage of newly acquired receiver Keenan McCardell as a deep ball threat and continue his success with tight end Antonio Gates. Although wide receiver Tim Dwight has not done much to date and their other real threat, Reche Caldwell, is sidelined for the season, receiver Eric Parker had a good showing last week and should continue to get looks.

The Panthers are in dire straights, with the 18th ranked offense that only averages 15 points a game. They have virtually no running game due to the injuries to both Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster. Davis is doubtful for tomorrows game and without some sort of ground attack they are not going to be able to do much. Defensively they look even worse than they do offensively, coming into the game with an overall ranking of 10th but being 30th against the rush, and allowing 23.6 points a game. The weight of this game is going to rest squarely on the shoulders of quarterback Jake Delhomme and his receiver corps of Keary Colbert, Muhsin Muhammad and Ricky Proehl. On the surface this wouldn't seem that bad, considering that the Chargers are as bad against the pass as the Panthers are against the rush (30th). The difference is that without anything on the ground the Panthers offense is going to be a very predictable one. Too many injuries in too many places for the Panthers, that they are a favorite in this game is surprising.

My Online Betting Action: The San Diego Chargers +3.

The St. Louis Rams (4-2) at The Miami Dolphins (0-6)
Against the Spread: Rams 2-3-1 | Dolphins 1-5-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Rams -6.5 -110 Over/Under 37.5 -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Rams -7 -110 to -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Rams -6 -103 to -110
Over/Under 37 to 37.5 -110

The Rams just squeaked a win for me last week, only beating the spread by a point. I'm not going to go into a lot of verbage about this game because there just isn't the need to. The Rams have a big play making offense that is getting back on track. They beat a very solid defense in the Bucs' last week and should not have a problem doing the same this week against the Dolphins. Running backs Marshall Faulk and Steven Jackson should have a good outing against Miami's 27th ranked defense. Their injury list is minimal and they are not going up against much of a team.

As for the Dolphins I could pretty much parrot what I said about them last week since nothing of note has changed. Oh, Wait, they may get QB Jay Fiedler back. They have nothing offensively, and although they do have one of the best defenses in the league they are not good against the rush (27th). Stopping the passing attack, as they have been able to do against much lesser offenses, is going to be a tall order for 4 quarters against the Rams much as it was against the Patriots. They have only managed to eak out 9 points a game, and that's just not going to get it done. Maybe they get lucky and it rains...

My Online Betting Action: The St. Louis Rams -6.

The Tennessee Titans (2-4) at The Minnesota Vikings (4-1)
Against the Spread: Titans 2-4-0 | Vikings 3-2-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Vikings -7 -110 Over/Under 53 -110
Current High NFL Betting Line: Vikings -7.5 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Vikings -6.5 -105 -110
Over/Under 53.5 -110

Tennessee is really hurting, with injuries all over the place. The Titans got handed their hat last week against the Texans, and it's not going to be any prettier this week. Quarterback Steve McNair is still sore, as is running back Chris Brown. Wide receiver Drew Bennett is questionable and tight end Erron Kinney is out. I don't think that these injuries are going to play much of a role one way or the other as the Titans have not been able to get a whole lot going in the air anyway. They have relied on their ground attack to keep them in games and have not faired well when faced with a real offense. They give up 23 points a game and you cannot expect to win doing that against a high powered offense like Minnesota's.

The Vikings have the number one ranked offense and are decently balanced with an above average rushing ranking of 13th. Randy Moss is the cream of the crop in wide receivers and he is only one of the weapons in quarterback Dante Culpepper's arsenal. As proved by last weeks game, even without Moss they are a threat. Rookie running back Mewelde Moore continues to impress. Wide-outs Nate Burlelson, and Marcus Robinson are sharp, solid route runners and Kelly Campbell is a serious deep ball target. So even if Moss sits out (he's listed as questionable), Culpepper's going to have plenty of sticky hands to throw to. Having tight end Jermaine Wiggins healthy and back in the starting lineup is just icing on the cake.

My Online Betting Action: The Minnesota Vikings -6.

The N.Y. Jets (5-0) at The New England Patriots (5-0)
Against the Spread: Jets 3-2-0 | Patriots 4-0-1
Game Time: 4:05 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Patriots -6 -110 Over/Under 44 -110
Current High NFL Betting Line: Patriots -7 -110 to -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Patriots -5.5 -110
Over/Under 43.5 to 44 -110

The Jets are another of the three unbeaten teams but, as I mentioned in the post about the Eagles, they have not faced the same level of opposition. Today they will. QB Chad Pennington is a solid passer with a rating of 97.8. Running back Curtis Martin is having a career year and their defense, while not getting the top ranking honors, has one of the best giveaway/takeaway ratios in the NFL at +9. Head Coach Herm Edwards plays a very conservative passing game but may stretch that out a bit with wide receiver Santana Moss back in the starting position. Left guard Pete Kendall who did a stand up job at center filling in for the injured Kevin Mawae will be back in action. Right guard Brandon Moore is also more than likely to get the go ahead. With all three of those guys back on the line and at least somewhat healthy Pennington should continue to see the protection that has allowed him a completion percentage of 70% and Martin will get those lead blocks to keep up the pace that he has set.

What can I say about the New England Patriots? More to the point HOW MUCH can I say about Head Coach Bill Belichick? I won't go into a long winded, kneel at his feet, spiel about this guy. Suffice to say that he is one of the greatest minds in football today, and he keeps managing to put one of the best football teams in the NFL on the field. The Patriots are dinged up but that has not seemed to stop them yet and I don't see that it will this week. They will once again be starting without wide receiver Deion Branch, but receivers David Patten and David Givens have done more than an ample job taking up the slack. Although quarter back Tom Brady has only a 58% completion percentage he does have a 93.5 passer rating. Plus he has the ability to stay controlled and focused no matter what happens around him. They don't rank at the top defensively, but they have one of the sneakiest defenses in the league. They disguise covers better than any team I have ever seen, sometimes to the point that their own teammates aren't quite sure what cover they are in until after the snap. Last week was their first real test playing the Seahawks, this week is yet another one. They will be in Foxboro, they will have the fans, they will win this game!

My Online Betting Action: The New England Patriots -6.

The Seattle Seahawks (3-2) at The Arizona Cardinals (1-4)
Against the Spread: Seahawks 2-2-0 | Saints 1-4-0
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Seahawks -7 -110 Over/Under 41 -110
Current High NFL Betting Line: Seahawks -7.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Seahawks -6.5 –110
Over/Under 40.5 -110

Head Coach Mike Holmgren and the Seattle Seahawks are stinging after their loss to the Pats' last week. They are looking for a rebound win and Arizona may just well be the place to get it done. In the face of suspension, wide receiver Koren Robinson has got to have another good day before he takes his leave, and apparently newly acquired receiver Jerry Rice has been great motivation for him this past week in practice. Although fellow wide-out Bobby Engram is a big question mark to play Sunday, the oldster Jerry Rice will be available to them, much to quarterback Matt Hasselbeck's delight, as the number three guy. Also, look for Darrell Jackson to Finally break the 100 yard receiving mark this week. He has gotten into the 90's 4 of 6 games this year and he's due for a bust out day. Couple that with Robinson and you can easily see a 300+ yard day for Hasselbeck. Running back Sean Alexander should see continued success against a weak rushing defense, and even though the 'Hawks are a bit damaged on the defensive side of the ball they should not have a problem against the Cardinals this week.

The Arizona Cardinals are in transition mode, struggling to get things going but playing decent ball against some pretty fair teams. Key player injuries in pre-season/training camp put them in a bind early. They have fought with valiant effort but just don't have the tools to get done what they have to to win games. Quarterback Josh McCown is struggling with 3 INT's to go with his 3 TD's. But it's not all his fault as he doesn't have a lot of guys to throw to, wide-out Larry Fitzgerald being the only receiver with more than 200 yards. His offensive line has not done their job of giving him time and have allowed 16 sacks, countless scrambles, hits and pressures. Running back Emmitt Smith has been their one saving grace, having come up big on more than one occasion to help them stay in games and clinch their single win. I feel for this team and for Head Coach Dennis Green and hope that they can piece things together soon. But it ain't gonna happen this week.

My Online Betting Action: The Seattle Seahawks -6.5.

I will Have something on the Monday Night Football Game, but keep in mind that I do not Handicap the Bengals, so don't expect a pick on this game.

Saturday, October 23, 2004