NFL Pick of the Week Against the Spread Online Betting Week 6

Stealing Bornczilla's format, my picks will be in italics, and they are games that I will have an online wager on. Games that I will not be betting on will be noted.

The Carolina Panthers (1-3) at The Philadelphia Eagles (4-0)
Against the Spread: Panthers 2-2-0 | Eagles 4-0-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Panthers -7.5 -109 Over/Under 41.5 -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Panthers -10 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Panthers -9 -110
Over/Under 41-41.5 -110

Let's start with the Panthers...1-3 The loss of WR Steve Smith was a blow, but that really doesn't excuse their play thus far this season. Smith has been in and out of the line-up for every team he has played since his college days. Nevermind the fact that rookie wide-out Keary Colbert has done a more than ample job of filling in those shoes, IMHO. Quartback Jake Delhomme has not gotten the job done behind center, having fumbled the ball in each outing, And he has a rather bleak completion percentage of about 59%. Is this his fault or does the blame lie elsewhere? I think it lies else where. The running game has been a tumoultious situation in Carolina at best. Stephen Davis gets hurt in practice after week 1 loss to Green Bay. DeShaun Foster steps up big with 172 yards in their week 2 win over Kansas City, but is brought back down from the mountain in week 4, held by the Falcons solid run defense to a mere 51 yards on 19 carries (I will mention that he faired a little better catching the ball 3 recps for 54 yards). Week 5 saw the Panthers starting yet again without Davis and to make matters worse lost Foster in the second quarter, leaving the game with a broken collar bone. The reason I go back to these games is to make a point about Delhomme, he HAS done his job. Passer ranking of 81, average passing yards 223. It's the ground game and to a lesser degree the offensive line that just has not been up to snuff. He keeps getting in situations where he is hurried, has to throw the ball where he doesn't want to, or to players running incorrect routes (one of the key reasons to his 4 INTs) and more importantly with no running game left the defenses know exactly what to execute against the Panthers. Even if Stephen Davis gets the green light to start, he's not going to be 100% so the factor of his return is not that great. I realize this seems like a lot of stuff to write about for this match-up, but this one is for an online wager so I'm trying validate my position.

Segue...?

The Philadelphia Eagles are strong, 4-0 all on the road. They give up yardage, no question about it, both on the ground and in the air. Statically speaking they are a middle of the pack defense, ranking 25th against the pass and 6th against the rush leaving them w/ an overall ranking of 16th. This doesn't explain things however. They have allowed the second fewest touch downs in the NFL (6) bested only by the Seattle Seahawks (5). Their offense comes in with the number 3 overall ranking but an only average 16th rushing, primarily due to the loss of Correll Buckhalter and in week 3 the loss of FB Jon Ritchie. But there is something special about this Eagles team that is different from years past. They have Terrell Owens, and they have him under QB Donavan McNabb's thumb. They have a defense that bends but doesn't break. They have taken their injuries in stride and kept going in spite of them. I have yet to see McNabb throw his hands up in the air with that “WTF just happened” look on his face. He has only thrown 1 pick to this point and has been able to continue to grow as a QUARTER BACK and not a scrambler. The Eagles are at the top of their division and manhandled the number two division rival N.Y. Giants. This Eagles team is going to clock out of week 6 with a 5-0 record, there is no question in my mind.

My Online Betting Action: The Philadelphia Eagles -9.
I've held off actually placing money to see if I can get this at 8 or 8.5. but will take it at -9.
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The Cincinnati Bengals (1-3) at The Cleveland Browns (2-3)
Against the Spread: Bengals 0-4-0 | Browns 2-3-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Browns -3 -107 Over/Under 40 -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Browns -3 EVEN to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Browns -2.5 -110 to -115
Over/Under 41 -41.5 -110

Sorry, as anyone who has been to my humble blog knows I don't write an analysis for games with the Bengals. I love them and cannot write an objective take on a match-up that includes them.

The Green Bay Packers (1-4) at The Detroit Lions (3-1)
Against the Spread: Packers 1-4-0 | Lions 3-1-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Packers -1 -110 Over/Under 43.5.5
Current High NFL Betting Line: Lions -3 -100 to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Lions -2.5 -110 to -120
Over/Under 44.5 to 45 -110

The Packers have disappointed, and cost me money all season long. They are a mere shadow of what we have come to expect. Even with Pro-Bowl quality players such as wide receivers Javon Walker and Donald Driver as well as running back Ahman Green, they have failed on the field. Ahman Green is back to his old ways, fumbling. Defensively speaking the Packers are more than lacking, and it's not just because of injuries. The Packers total lack of fire on defense is evident nearly every snap. They look winded by the time they run out on the field, there is a complete lack of leadership and I can only look at defensive coordinator Bob Slowik and wonder exactly what they are paying him for. The Packers D just keeps getting worse year in and year out. 2001 11th overall, 2002 12th overall, 2003 16th overall and so far this year 31st overall. Again I repeat, this is not just injuries. They lack spark, life, umph, whatever you want to call it, they don't have it. The loss of Grady Jackson was without question painful, but it should have been used to motivate others to step up their respective game play not lie down and play dead. This has put the Packers offense in one hell of a bind. Quarter back Brett Favre knows that he has to put up big scores because his defense stands little to no chance of stopping the opposition. The receivers know that every ball thrown their way has got to be caught and as many yards after tacked on. Green knows that he has to be pert near perfect every carry. That is what it's like to be on the offense of a team who's defense gives up the most average points per game in the NFL (28.4). That's a heavy load to bare!

Moving on to the Detroit Lions, they are playing pretty decent football. Their only loss being at the hands of the Philadelphia Eagles in week 3. Granted, the Lions had not played another above .500 team until they met up with the Falcons. That is what made me a little more of a believer. They Won! The Lions beat an undefeated Falcons in THEIR house. They played solid defensive ball, putting constant pressure on Falcons QB Michael Vick, causing him to fumble three times and get picked once. They put a halt to the run, holding Warrick Dunn to 44 yards on 18 carries. The only touch down was made possible be a faked punt that saw punter Chris Mohr lobbing one to WR Brian Finneran who was able to get 39 yards. Detroit's QB Joey Harrington didn't do anything spectacular, but he didn't do anything spectacularly wrong either. He was 16-24 for 127 yards, no INTs and a touchdown. New starting running back Artose Pinner rushed for 68 yards on 23 carries, one of which was into the endzone. This proved a lot to me. They have what it takes to play a good team. Not a great team mind you, but a good team. So where is this diatribe leading...?

My Online Betting Action: The Detroit Lions -2.5
The Over at 44.5 is not without merit either.
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The Houston Texans (2-3) at The Tennessee Titans (2-3)
Against the Spread: Texans 2-3-0 | Titans 2-3-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Titans -5.5 -110 Over/Under 46 -110
Current High NFL Betting Line: Titans -7 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Titans -6 -101
Over/Under 45 -110

The Texans are a hit and miss team, yet to produce like results from one game to the next. They looked much the same at the start of this season as they did at the end of last years. But they came up with the win in KC, followed by a win in Oakland. Their loss to Minnesota came in over time (and cost me a win as I thought I had it locked getting 4 points when it went into OT). Texans quarter back David Carr did a great job of leading his team in the fourth quarter and showed signs of having the “Right Stuff”. The Defense did not play like their 26th ranking would have you believe, and was one of the reasons that I liked and bet on them with the points. The Texans walk on the field tomorrow with the 7th overall offense bolstered by their 5th ranked passing game.

The Titans gobbled up the Packers last week, but I don't know that there is a whole lot of respect to be had by that victory (see above commentary on the Packers). They have quarter back Steve McNair back and wide receiver Derrick Mason as well as running back Chris Brown will play, even though they are listed as questionable. Corner back Samari Role will probably start, but he is not 100% healthy by a stretch. The Titans defense is really nothing to brag about but neither is the Texans. It's the awkward match-up that makes the difference in this game. Texans have the 5th ranked passing game, the Titans have 20th ranked passing defense. Titans have the 3rd ranked rushing game, the Texans have the 25th ranked rushing defense. The Titan give up an average of 23.5 point a game,the Texans score an average of 23.6. Conversly the Texans give up 23.6 points a game while the Titans put up 22.2. The point being that this is a closer game than 6.5 points.

My Online Betting Action: The Houston Texans +6.5
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The Kansas City Chiefs (1-3) at The Jacksonville Jaguars (3-2)
Against the Spread: Chiefs 1-3-0 | Jaguars 3-2-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Chiefs -2.5 -101 Over/Under 41.5 -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Chiefs -3 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Chiefs -2 -110
Over/Under 44 -110

The Chiefs have look bad, period. They just haven't had much to bring to the table. Quarter back Trent Green is a class act as is running back Priest Holmes and it's been hard to watch them this year and not feel a little bit sorry. Sunday may be a new dawning for the Chiefs however. Wide receiver Eddie Kennison will be returning to the lineup. Trent Green will once again have his “home run hitter” to throw to and this should allow things to open up for KC. Corner back William Bartee will be available for the nickel formation in place of Julian Battle. Defensive end Jared Allen is back and at full speed, and Hope has found a home in Kansas City! They started to get back on track, despite the injuries, in week 4 against the Baltimore Ravens and now they are going to be getting a couple of key players back in the line up (namely Eddie Kennison). I think that the offense picks up where it left off before the bye and has a strong showing this week in Jacksonville. The defense will need to be up to 2003 standards, but I think they can muster that.

The Jaguars QB Byron Leftwich has got a good amount of receiving talent around him in wide recievers Jimmy Smith, Reggie Williams and to a lesser degree Ernest Wilford, yet he still languishes towards the bottom of the QB ranking pile. He and his offense are going to get a boost by the return of tight end Kyle Brady, and that will help. Running back Fred Taylor has improved a bit in as much as he is not losing the ball. But still has a unremarkable yard per game average of 65.6. Jaguars biggest claim to fame this year was their upset of the Broncos at Mile High in week 2. Their wins have been squeakers and their losses have been the kind that make you say what? The Colts then the Chargers beat them on their own turf, the Chargers winning by 13!

My Online Betting Action: The Kansas City Chiefs -2.5
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The Miami Dolphins (0-5) at The Buffalo Bills (0-4)
Against the Spread: Dolphins 1-4-0 | Bills 2-2-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Bills -6 -108 Over/Under 32 -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bills -6 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bills -5 -103
Over/Under 30.5 -110

This game has the makings of the stinker of the week. The Dolphins are caught between a rock and a hard place. They have no QB to speak of and even if they did they don't get enough time to throw it. And let's say they get enough time to throw it, it's going to one of two places, wide receiver Chris Chambers or tight end Randy McMichael as they have been the only two players that seem to grasp the concept of catching the ball. Running back Travis Minor will likely be back, but he's not going to have anywhere to run. Bottom line is they have the worst offense in the NFL. All that said, their defense will stand tough per usual.

The Bills with quarter back Drew “when are you going to f***ing retire” Bledsoe at point, look only slightly better. They don't look as good on paper overall defensively but that's due to their poor pass defense which is obviously not going to be an issue in this game. They have the 5th ranked rushing defense and will be facing the 32nd ranked rushing attack (can I use that word?) of the Dolphins.

The Buffalo Bills -5
No action.
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The San Diego Chargers (3-2) at The Atlanta Falcons (4-1)
Against the Spread: Chargers 3-1-1 | Falcons 2-3-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Falcons -5.5 -105 Over/Under 41 -110
Current High NFL Betting Line: Falcons -5 -101 to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Falcons -4.5 -110
Over/Under 42-42.5 -110

Will the real Drew Brees please stand up?! Who is this guy, he's like the Greg Raymer of football, he suddenly can't lose no matter what he has. 210 yards 2 touchdowns last week, 194 yards 3 touchdowns week before that... I mean seriously folks he's got a passer rating of 100.0, that's better than Tom Brady and just a notch below the likes of Donovan McNabb! He is on a rush, there is no question about it, and the head office knows it as well. There aren't any more “discussions” about the quarter back situation. That all may change Monday but for this week all is well as far as that is concerned. Running back Jesse Chatman stepped up to the plate to pinch hit for the ailing LaDainian Tomlison in the 3rd quarter and hit one out of the park, rushing for 103 yards on 11 carries including one for a touchdown. The Chargers O line has shown amazing game play, speed and adjustment ability. San Diego looks like they are one of those teams that plays great ball on the road but can't seem to get a win at home.

The Falcons have not been nearly the threat that they should be offensively. It has been their defense and their running game that enabled them to get off to a 4-0 start. Detroit brought them a Cease and Desist order, bringing that win streak to an abrupt halt. That game showed the vulnerability in the offensive line of the Falcons and proved that their 1st ranked running game can be stopped, and that the ranking is suspect. Can they stop the tandem of running backs Tomlinson and Chatman, even if they are a little nicked up? Can Atlanta's unbelievable 31st ranked passing offense get something going against the Chargers? Maybe, but it's a big maybe.

My Online Betting Action: The San Diego Chargers +5
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The Seattle Seahawks (3-1) at The New England Patriots (4-0)
Against the Spread: Seahawks 3-1-0 | Patriots 3-0-1
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Patriots -4 -102 Over/Under 42 -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Patriots -4.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Patriots -3.5 -110 to -115
Over/Under 41.5-42 -103 to -110

Oh Billy.... This is a good one. The Seahawks were upset last week by the St. Louis Rams in OT. They were winning 27-10 in the middle of the 3rd quarter and I thought that I had a solid win on my wager card. Then the defense that coach Mike Holmgren is, and up to that point had every right to be, so proud of did the unthinkable. They rested on their laurels. Quarter back Matt Hasselbeck helped with a few key third down miss reads/missed receivers. That game is over now and the Seahawks got their fill of grief this week from Holmgren rest assured. Seattle is still one of the most well rounded teams in the NFL. They have a good amount of talent on both sides of the ball and a solid, if not star studded, coaching staff. They are perfect on the road and have a mission to prove that they are better than what they showed their fans last Sunday. But they are going to New England, and that is not were you want to go for a rebound win.

The New England Patriots and in particular head coach Bill Belichick are an amazing team. Belichick is one of if not the most innovative coaches I've ever had the pleasure of watching. Despite salary caps and free agency and everything else that is The National Football League today he continues to find those players that can fill in the gaps when he loses someone. Defensively they disguise so well that they sometimes appear as though they must have stolen their opponents play book. Offensively, there is no other team that I would want when it came to crunch time. Quarter back Tom Brady is in a class by himself, not necessarily because of his raw talent, but more because of the combination of talent, composure and intelligence that he has. He is a true leader. Watch what his lineman do if they think that an opposing player has taken a cheap shot. Or how they respond if he gets hit after a play, legit or not. The O line of the Patriots take great pride in protecting Brady, and are sincerely bothered if someone slips through there guard and touches him. They are also a line that has given nice holes for running back Corey Dillon. But the Patriots may have to throw the ball more than they would like to, Dillon is a game-time decision. If Dillon doesn't start back-up Kevin Faulk will get the nod. This could force the Patriots into a position where they are not able to play action as effectively as they would like and have gotten used to. Wide receiver Troy Brown, who is sitting in for the injured Deion Branch, missed practice this week because of his shoulder. But the Patriots seem to find a way, and they will find it on Sunday as well.

My Online Betting Action: The New England Patriots -3.5 Pick of the Week
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The San Francisco 49ers (1-4) at The N.Y. Jets (4-0)
Against the Spread: 49ers 3-2-0 | Jets 3-1-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Jets -9.5 -105 Over/Under 41 -110
Current High NFL Betting Line: Jets -11 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Jets -10 -110
Over/Under 42.5-43 -110

The Jets also killed me last week, having the spread covered and then some going into the final quarter of the game. They went to the dreaded Prevent Defense and allowed Buffalo to climb right back in the game. Quarter back Chad Pennington didn't help their cause any by throwing and interception early in the fourth quarter that began the come back attempt by the Bills. But the Jets won, even though they lost Santana Moss and had running back Curtis Martin held in check for the first time this season. They are still tied with New England in the AFC East and are one of only 3 teams undefeated. With solid play on both sides of the ball and a well rounded offense they should not have a problem extending that win streak to 5. The question mark beside Santana Moss is offset by the pass and catch routine the Pennington has been able to use with wide receiver Wayne Chrebet and the deep ball threat of both Chrebet and Justin McCariens. Look for running back Curtis Martin to be back in his old form against the mid-pack rushing defense of the 49ers.

The 49ers, what can you really say. Quarter back Tim Rattay looked sharp against the Cardinals going 38-57 for 417 yards and 2 touchdowns. Those numbers where primarily due to the fact that they could get nothing going on the ground. Running back Kevin Barlow was held to 34 yards on 14 carries. Rattay did spread the ball around hooking up with wide receivers Curtis Conway, Cedrick Wilson and Brandon Lloyd as well as tight end Aaron Walker. The big standout of the game was tight end Eric Johnson who hauled in 13 balls for 162 yards and a touchdown. But that was against a team who's pass defense ranks around the bottom of the totem pole. The Cardinals have given up much yardage to everyone who has played them. Defensivley the 49ers are not a whole heck of a lot better looking. They sit just above average at 12th, but that number doesn't hold a lot of water when you take into account that they give up 27 points a game. They may be able to keep this close if they can somehow expliot the hole left by the injury to N.Y.'s right guard Brandon Moore. But I don't see it happening.

My Online Betting Action: The N.Y. Jets -9.5
Note: I grabbed this game early, the line has shifted.
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The Washington Redskins (1-4) at The Chicago Bears (1-3)
Against the Spread: Redskins 1-4-0 | Bears 2-2-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Redskins -1.5 -110 Over/Under 34.5 -110
Current High NFL Betting Line: Redskins -1 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Redskins -1 -110
Over/Under 33 to 34 -110

The Redskins are struggling. Running back Clinton Portis is struggling. Quarter back Mark Brunell is struggling. Did I mention that the Redskins are struggling? They are essentially without a functional offense. Dropped passes, fumbled footballs, sacks, hits and pressures on Brunell. I don't think that Gibbs gets it yet, or maybe they don't get him. Either way they have very little hope of even going 7-9 this year. The defense has stood proud but it doesn't mean much when your team can't move the ball. What else can I say...

The Chicago Bears have not faired any better in the win loss columns but they have played much stronger opponents. Particularly when you look at the key injuries that they have had (remember that young gun Rex Grossman?). Quarter back Jonathan Quinn was able to do a little something. The Bears Defense was also able to hold the outstanding offense of the Eagles to 19 points. Middle linebacker Brian Urlacher will return to the line up and that should help. But I don't know if it helps enough. This game is nasty, to say the least.

The Chicago Bears -1
No Action.
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I'll be back with the afternoon games and ESPN night game later...