Friday, September 24, 2004

NFL Against The Spread. Part Two

San Diego(1-1) at Denver(1-1) Denver -10. Return
I hate to start this with another “man this is a tough one to call”, but that's exactly what it is, a tough call. Let's begin with LaDainian Tomlinson who is bothered by a jammed big toe. He claims that it is NOT the “turf toe” we hear about so often but rather a simple jam in the upper part of his toe. That said, keep in mind that he pulled himself out for several plays during their loss to the Jets. It was late in the game and that might be a sign that fatigue adds to it being a bother. Added to that mix is quarterback Drew Brees who we all know has issues. Still, he has guided The Chargers to an average score ranking of 3rd, tied with the likes of The Indianapolis Colts and The Atlanta Falcons.
Denver's Quentin Griffin went off on Kansas City's weak defense in week 1, but was limited to only 66 yards on 25 carries against Jacksonville. But we are talking about the Chargers defense (ranked 24th overall; 17th against the rush 26th against the pass), not the Jaguars. Even with a 7th ranked offense the Broncos have not put big numbers on the score board. In a nutshell I think this game is better left alone, but if a gun was put to my head... I would have to take a bullet. Seriously though, I think that the weak link in this is Jake Plummer's question marks behind the gun, The Chargers +10.
Side Notes: Broncos are 1-3 against the spread (ATS) in their last four overall.

San Francisco(0-2) at Seattle(2-0), Seattle -10.5. Return
Whew, that's a big favorite... when was the last time that The Seahawks came into a game favored by those kind of numbers? Ok, don't answer that. The Seahawks with Mike Holmgren at the helm just keep getting better and better. Although Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is still going through some growing pains he's smart and does have some real weapons at his disposal in Wide Receivers Darrell Jackson and Koren Robinson. But the game still rests squarely on the shoulders of Running Back Shaun Alexander. Did I mention that's a big spread.
Now looking at The 49ers they are really banged up. Injuries are too long to list and are on both sides of the ball. Quarterback Ken Dorsey will be starting and is an unknown commodity at best, and has very little to work with. Although I really like the Seahawks I don't like this game against the spread. If some action on this one is what you want, look at taking the Over at 43.5 and cheer at every score.
Side Notes: Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings, Over is 5-2 in 49ers last seven overall.

Green Bay(1-1) at Indianapolis(1-1), Indianapolis -6.5. Return
I've really been looking forward to writing about this one. Add two explosive offenses, plus two fantastic quarterbacks, and you get a whole lotta fun to watch. I mean this should be a great one! The Packers led by quarterback Brett Favre are coming off a hard loss at home against The Chicago Bears, while The Colts with the dynamic Payton Manning guiding them, took out The Tennessee Titans in Tennessee.
I see big plays and big numbers written all over this one. Even with the injuries on both teams this is not going to be an defensive slug fest.
Despite the hamstring problem with running back Edgerrin James, he will probably get some play time and combined with Dominick Rhodes they will be able to wear down the front four enough for Manning to set up the play action, and we all know what he does when that happens.
With The Packers, you have the obvious, multi-talented running back Ahman Green setting up Favre for the rollouts and bootlegs, with his counter plays. Both teams have offensive linemen that are solid pass protectors and run blockers, so both quarterbacks are going to be able to do what they do best, throw the ball. Folks this one is going to be the afternoon game that will keep your eyes glued to the set and your butt planted in the chair. It's going to be a shootout, boy's. This is another game that I will be logging into my favorite online casino and getting a little action on. In fact I might even go two ways with this one. The Packers + 6.5 and the Over at 48.5. At the very least I love The Packers with the points.
Side Notes: Packers are 8-3 against the spread (ATS) in their last 11 overall, and 7-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last nine as a dog.

Tampa Bay(0-2) at Oakland(1-1), Oakland -3. Return
What can I really say about this match-up. This one IS going to be a defensive slug fest. The Raiders land on the field with the 4th ranked overall defense, and The Buccaneers step out on the grass just one notch above with the 3rd ranked overall defense. Offensively The Raiders sit just below the middle of the pack at 18th overall, while the anemic Buccaneers offense stands at a dismal 30th. If you're a fan of either of these teams and just need a reason to watch, or a football junkie who will watch whatever he (or she) can get and HAVE to have a reason to watch then my advice would be to start drinking early and heavy and with a little luck you'll be too drunk to wager on this game at all. But if that fails, do yourself a favor and take the Under at 34.5 and make it a small bet.
Side Notes: Why Bother.

Well your fedora adorned writer is signing off for the night. I'll be back tomorrow to right any wrongs, and give you my humble opinion on The Monday Night Football Game. Until then, keep on keepin' on!
NFL Meets Online Poker Or How I spent last-night.

I know my readers READER are IS anxiously awaiting my next post with my analysis of the afternoon games. I, however, am going to deviate from the norm and talk about something completely different, Poker!
I have been playing poker online at Party Poker with Iggy for several years now and doing well at the lower limits. Iggy as of late has been relentlessly urging me to move up (considerably) to higher limits, claiming that it was just as fishy. Well last night I did. I made the move and he was dead right. I will say that it did take about an orbit for me to get my wits about me, being a rather tight-aggressive player I did have the mental aspect of the move up to overcome. I don't like playing scared, in fact I like to be the pusher rather than the pushy (no pun intended).
But in any case Iggy was dead on. They were every bit as aggressive pre-flop, maybe even a little more so, as at the lower limit tables. I sat back waiting for the right places to stick my head in and finished the night a bit richer.
Just want to say to Iggy, Right On!