Sunday, January 23, 2005

NFL Against the Spread – Online Betting AFC NFC Title Games

AFC Title Game

NFC Title Game

The New England Patriots (15-2) at The Pittsburgh Steelers (16-1)
Against the Spread:  Falcons 8-8-1 | Eagles 10-5-1
Game Time: 6:00 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Patriots -3 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Patriots -3 EVEN
Over/Under 34.5u -105 to -113

The Patriots seem to be to Peyton Manning and the Colts, what Florida was to him in his college days with the Vols. He just can't beat them. Manning didn't make the big mistakes that he did in their last post-season meeting, and the Pat's secondary didn't mug the receivers as was the case a year ago. Yet the outcome was still the same. Manning was kept from throwing a touchdown, and was never able to get into his “zone”.

Despite having a very depleted pass cover squad the Patriots stood their ground against, arguably, the best receiving corp in the NFL today. Even with names like Tyrone Poole, Ty Law and Richard Seymour on the sidelines, the defense was able to hold the extremely explosive Colts offense to very ordinary numbers.

When New England did have the ball, they kept it. Using the powerful legs of RB Corey Dillon to continuously pound on the Colts D line. Then when things were good for it a quick slant, play action or screen had Indy's secondary wondering what was going on. With QB Tom Brady hitting 10 different guys with passes, it was little wonder why. When all was said and done the Pats' had 200+ yards on the ground, 140+ in the air and maintained control of the ball for nearly 40 minutes of play.

The Steelers win was not nearly as impressive. QB Ben Roethlisberger struggled yet again against the Jets. He was 17-30 for about 180 yards, got picked twice and if it wasn't for the RB Jerome Bettis' superb effort and the outstanding job of the defensive squad, Big Ben would have gotten his first loss.

The Pittsburgh D did do an outstanding job and Bettis did have another superb game and the end result was another win for Roethlisberger and the Steelers. Pittsburgh gained almost 200 yards on the ground and kept the ball better than half the game. This enabled the D to stay somewhat fresh and keep them out of harms way in OT. The 1-10 holding penalty against Becht didn't help the Jets cause any.

But did the Steelers win this game or did the Jets lose it? From the sidline perspective it seemed the latter was more true than the former. An interception returned for a touchdown by SS Troy Polamalu gave the Steelers an early 10-0 lead.
The Jets D did their job late, rattling Roethlisberger, and getting an interception with just 1:58 left in regulation. Then, with the game knotted up at 17 each, K Doug Brien missed two field goal attempts (47 and 43 yards), the second set up by that INT, that could have ended the day for the Steelers.

The key here was the fact that Big Ben showed his rookie side again. He was pressured and made mistakes that could/should have cost Pittsburgh the win. That happens against a team with the skill level of the Patriots and it could be the end of the road for the Steelers.

It is without saying that the Patriots have the advantage going into this game. They have been here before and know what the deal is. They have a running game that they have not had in the past, and that is proving to be an outstanding asset to them. Tom Brady may not be the best QB out there, but he is level headed and for the most part, makes good on field decisions. He has a fantastic receiving group to go to when he needs/wants to throw the ball, but with the addition of Dillon to the roster, is no longer in a situation where he has to rely on the passing game for drives to be sustained.

Romeo Crennel has done an incredible job of rebuilding a secondary that was as good as gone, and making them into something that is a bother to offenses. Bill Belichick's constant scheming always has opponents trying to second guess the defense, even when they don't come out with different looks.

All in all, it should be a tight game with two good D's on the field as well as good coaching on both sidelines. But in the end, the experience of the Patriots in conjunction with the talent that they have should give them the victory.

My Online Betting Action: The Patriots -3