Sunday, December 19, 2004

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Picks of The Week 15

Ok Fast And Furious. Watching the Panthers, which as you all know I have a wager on. It will be a winning day or a break even day depending on the outcome.

The Dallas Cowboys (5-8) at The Philadelphia Eagles (12-1)
Against the Spread: Cowboys 5-8-0 | Eagles 9-4-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Eagles -14 +120
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Eagles -12.5 -110
Over/Under 46u -110
Despite last weeks outcome, they are still good to cover against Dallas. Wager already on Eagles -

The Eagles had one of their worst outings last week against the Redskins. They still are great ATS and that number has been lowered this week because of that game. McNabb can get it done with T.O., L.J and B.W. (Brian Westbrook, trying to keep up with the initials thing. Westbrook has proven over the last couple of games that he really does deserve the job. He has good running ability and great hands. Just what you want in an all purpose back, aka Faulk. T.O., well T.O. Is what he is, one of the best in the biz. In the Moss v. Owens battle, Owens wins. His size enables him to do thing that Moss can't, YET! Moss has the acrobatics, but he can't get off on the CB's like T.O. Can. Let him bulk up another year and we shall see.

Sorry for the tangent.

Game Break: Yes! Carolina just scored, 7 point game...

Ok, numbers...

Eagles offense 5th in points scored at 27.5, allow only 15.0
Dallas offense 21st in points cored at 19.2, allow 27.3
Eagles defensive points, 24 total on 15 INT's and 13 Forced Fumbles
Dallas defensive points, 0 total on 8 INT's and 10 Forced Fumbles
Eagles overall offensive ranking, 7th - 22nd rush, 5th pass
Dallas overall offensive ranking, 15th - 18th rush, 17th pass

Game Break: Right On! Vick fumbles, Peppers recovers it, returns 60 yards for TD, tied 24 all.

Dallas overall defensive ranking, 25th - 12th rush, 26th pass <--That's gonna hurt
Eagles overall defensive ranking, 12th - 13th rush, 13th pass (how does that figure to a 12th rating?)

The Eagles have an average margin of victory of 15.25 points.
Dallas has an average margin of loss of 18 points.

The Math isn't hard to figure out.

My Online Betting Action: The Eagles -11.5
Recent Trends
•Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
•Cowboys are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 overall.
•Under is 6-2 in DAL last eight games in Dec.
•Under is 9-3 in PHI last 12 overall.
•PHI is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in Dec.
•PHI is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.


Game Break: Woohoo! Panther's just scored again. 31-24... the Money Line Wager is starting to look mighty sweet from this end. 3:37 4th quarter.


The Houston Texans (5-8) at The Chicago Bears (5-8)
Against the Spread: Texans 7-6-0 | Bears 6-7-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bears -1 -110 to -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bears 0 -110
Over/Under 33.5u to 34u -110
Are the Texans back on a roll? I won a good chuck of change betting then as underdogs early in the season. Going to have to look at this game long and hard.

Looked long and hard and the fact is that the Texans, as streaky as they can be, are a better club than the Bears are at this stage.

Chicago's Hutchinson had a good first game against the very weak D of the Vikings. He did not do so hot against the Jags. Going 17 of 33 for 212 yards, no touchdowns and 1 interception. Ended the day with 52% completions, and in general just didn't look very good.

Game Break: Vick just got slammed on 2nd & goal, hobbled off the field. 2min. Warning, ughhh, sweating profusely now...

By contrast, even though they lost, Houston kept the powerhouse offense of Indy to a meager 23 points and Carr looked good. He was 16 of 21, 1 touchdown and 1 interception. Finished with 76.2% completions and a rating of 94.7. None too shabby. Domanick Davis had an outstanding day, rushing for 128 yards on 23 carries. He caught 6 passes for 73 yards, but it was against the Colts.

Game Break: 4th & goal from the Atlanta 14, Vick runs it in for the TD, extra point is good. 31-31 1:37 left Panther's have 1 timeout (Booth review on TD, it was an amazing feat on Vick's part).

The Bear's have a more efficient defense, scoring 54 points while allowing only 20. They rank 17th overall -24th against the rush, 12th against the pass.
Houston comes in at a lowly 30th overall - 18th against the rush, 29th against the pass, and they are much less efficient, scoring only 30 points defensively.

Game Break: OT Panther's to receive.

Offensively the numbers change drastically. Houston is mid pack with an average of 19.2 per game and ranks 16th overall -20th rush, 18th pass. Carr has a QB rating of 84.6 with over 300 yards, and 13 touchdowns. The downside is he has 12 interceptions and 10 fumbles (he's only lost 2 however). A lot of that can be attributed to the O line, as the have allowed him to be sacked 37 times – tied for 3rd most in the NFL.

Game Break: Delhomme floats one over Proehl's head picked off by Beasley, returned to Carolina's 23. Two running plays, Feely's 38 yard field goal is good. Atlanta 34 Carolina 31 Fuck darned, should have taken the 3.5 points.

The Bear's are a horse of a different color. Their ranked dead last - 24th rush, 30th pass. Sitting second to last in scoring with only 15.3 per game and that's likely to go to last after the Washington game gets added. That is unless they pull a rabbit out of their hat tomorrow. Hutchinson is a complete unknown, so trying to calculate his effectiveness is a waste of time.

My Online Betting Action: The Texans +1

Recent Trends
•Under is 9-2 in HOU last 11 games in Dec.
•HOU is 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games.
•Under is 5-2-1 in HOU last eight overall.
•CHI is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in Dec.
•Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last seven at home.
•Under is 6-3 in CHI last nine home games.

The San Diego Chargers (10-3) at The Cleveland Browns (3-10)
Against the Spread: Chargers 10-1-2 | Browns 4-9-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Chargers -11 -125
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Chargers -9.5 -104 to -110
Over/Under 37u to 37.5u -110
Again, despite last week, wager already on Chargers -9.5

How can you not wager on a team with an ATS of 10-1-2. Riding them has been like a pony ride at the kiddy farm. The Chargers have everything clicking, even on off days like last week. Tomlinson is rockin' and rollin'. Brees is making it real tough to release him (What are they going to do next year, they can't keep him and Rivers). Here's what LT thinks about it ...issue his support for bringing resurgent quarterback Drew Brees back to San Diego next season. "I don't think there is any question," he told the North County Times. "Why break up something that's not broken? That's the way I feel about it. I hope I don't get in trouble." And he is right. Drew is playing great, he has lofted himself into the upper echelon of QB's. He is now #4, but still has a 102.7rating. Although he hasn't passed for the nearly 4000 yards that the guys in fron of him have, he still owns a 64.5 completion percentage and has only 6interceptions to his 23 touchdowns.

Don't expect Antonio Gates to be as lack-luster as he was last week. He's still one of the top receivers and he's tied for 3rd in TD's with 11.

San Diego's O line is getting the job done, both in pass blocking and in run blocking. Just look at the numbers, LT has 1147 yards rushing, 357 yards receiving and 14 touchdowns.
Brees has only hit the turf 16 times and he's actually rushed for 2 TD,s.

The Browns are coming around, but it's going to be a bit. They are going to have to go it again without Holcomb. Lee Suggs is questionable, very questionable. That means Green sees most of the running duties, and since they are playing from behind so often his numbers are very lacking, hence you really don't know what he may be capable of. He's only had 46 carries in the last 4 games, that's not enough to show you much.

McCown had a great outing against New England, but only completed 8 passes last week against Buffalo, throwing 2 INT's to his 1 touchdown. With all the injuries, having their best receiver on IR and the “who knows who's gonna be the starter” at RB they are just in such a disarray that it's amazing that they can score at all.

Cleveland has a single bright spot, they have CB Daylon McCutcheon back in the starting line-up. That's it. The rest of their numbers are evwen worse than they were last week, so no reason to hash over that.

This is a big bet yet again.

My Online Betting Action: The Chargers -9.5

Recent Trends
•SD is 11-1-2 ATS in their last 14 overall.
•Under is 4-1 in SD last five road games.
•SD is 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight on the road.
•Browns are 0-6 ATS in their last six overall.
•CLE is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 as a dog.
•Over is 2-0 in the last two meetings in CLE.

The Seattle Seahawks (7-6) at The N.Y. Jets (9-4)
Against the Spread: Seahawks 5-8-0 | Jets 7-5-1
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Jets -7 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Jets -6.5 -110
Over/Under 40u to 40.5u -110
In spite of what the 'Hawks did last week, with both teams so desperate for the win, I give the advantage to Herm and Chad/Quincy. Eat the points, they are 7-5-1 ATS, Odds are in your favor.

Jets are going to run the ball with Chad still sore and the possibility that Carter may get in. It's going to be all about Curtis Martin.

Seattle's Matt Hasselbeck can get it done but it seems that Holmgren will keep the lid shut on him because of his tendency to throw interceptions at EXACTLY the wrong time. They got away with the win at Minnesota, but they tried to give it away. Again it's would seem that they will use Shaun Alexander to the utmost. Particularly when you consider how well he is playing.

Statistically the Seahawks have the advantage over the Jets in overall defense, but the jets make up for that with their Giveaway/takeaway numbers and the difference in points allowed.

Taking a little advice from Brian of N.Y. Jets Football blog in one respect, The Under.

But I'm still seeing the Jets as having the better ATS against tougher opponents.

Two ways:

One Medium.
My Online Betting Action: The Jets -6
One Small.
My Online Betting Action: The Under 40.5

Recent Trends
•Under is 4-2 in the last six meetings.
•SEA is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 overall.
•Over is 8-2 in SEA last 10 overall.
•Under is 8-3 in NYJ last 11 overall.
•NYJ are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games in Dec.
•Jets are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.