Saturday, December 04, 2004

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Picks of The Week 13

Fully expecting to grind out a good old healthy dose of rambling statistics and analysis' I fired up my browsers and various other electronic tools, opened a new text document and started to type. After about 30 min. of doing just that I realized how tough this weekend was going to be too handicap.

Trying to bang out a good post in a sitting just wasn't going to happen. With the way things are sitting now there are only a few games that I think have wagering potential and even those need more scrutiny before getting my stamp of approval, or my $$$.

So there is my lame excuse for not having this done and up last-night.

BTW, someone please tell me if I'm missing something obvious this weekend.

Is it just me or do the Eagles seem like too good of a pick to be true? Same question with Minnesota.


The Buffalo Bills (5-6) at The Miami Dolphins (2-9)
Against the Spread: Bills 7-4-0 | Dolphins 4-7-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Bills -3.5 -115 Over/Under 35.5 -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bills -4 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bills -3 -130
Over/Under 34.5u -110


The Bills have put together a facsimile of an offense in spite of QB Drew Bledsoe's sub par performance (13 TD's 14 INT's). RB Willis McGahee has rushed for a 100+ yards in 5 of his 6 games as the featured back. He has arguably been the sole reason for the five W's Buffalo has this season. They have a good defense, but it isn't a points producing D. Heaven knows that having a QB that plays catch with the opposing team hasn't gotten it done. When McGahee gets in the 100+ range the Bills win ball games. That sounds like a truism applicable to any team in the NFL, but it is a statistical fact in Buffalo's case.

Buffalo's defense does get the job done, make no mistake. They are ranked 3rd overall and are pretty well balanced at 4th and 7th against the rush and pass, respectively. Again it's worth noting that although they are solid they don't score points, having only 2 to their credit.

So the question is then boiled down to a pretty simple one. Can the O line do the job against the Dolphins and open things up for McGahee?

Easier said than done? Miami has the 6th ranked overall defense. That number is a bit misleading however, as they are only 29th against the rush. The Dolphins do have a couple of the best corners in the league with Patrick Surtain and Sam Madison. Their safeties, Arturo Freeman and Sammy Knight, are no slouches either. These guys, along with a solid D line, can shut down a passing game. At least on paper they look good right up to the point of the W's. Looking at their Win/Loss columns tells a bit of a different picture. Offensive Nightmare.

The Dolphins extraordinary losses this season has cost them dearly when it comes to the offense. Wanny stepping down and Jim Bates being named as interim Head Coach has done very little to change the the overall problems that Miami has. QB Jay Fiedler has to be privately sighing in relief that he has been placed on IR for the rest of the season (wonder if he got a congratulatory phone call from Wanny). Meanwhile QB A.J. Feeley better hope his butt isn't too sore, he may very well be spending a good portion of the game on it.

Bills passing ineptitude is a wash versus the complete offensive ineptitude of the Dolphins. Bills took their first meeting by 7, no reason to think that they can't hold their own in this one as well.

There is also the fact that with an ATS of 7-4 and only giving 3 pts. It's not a stretch to go with the Bills on that basis alone.

My Online Betting Action: The Bills -3


The Houston Texans (5-6) at The N.Y. Jets (8-3)
Against the Spread: Texans 6-5-0 | Jets 6-4-1
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: Jets -8 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Jets -7 -105 to -110
Over/Under 41u -110

Going to put my friend and fellow Sports Blogger Brian Bassett of The NY Jets Blog on the spot this week. I really like the Jets and think that QB Chad Pennington has the brains and talent to do great things if he can stay healthy and WR's Justin McCariens and Santana Moss continue to live up to expectations.

Herm Edwards is a good defensive minded Head Coach, but there are times when his decision making has been questionable offensively. With Defensive Rookie of the Year hopeful, ML Jonathan Vilma leading the way, the Jets D has been an effective, if seemingly quiet, unit.

The Texans have been streaky, but in a scary way, not in the New Orleans fashion. With a lot of young talent on both sides of the ball, they have the potential to be a force in seasons to come. Even though this year is over for them they are highly unlikely to lay down, wanting to be a spoiler and prove a point through the rest of the season. This match-up has all the ear marks of just that kind of game.

7 points just seems too high a price to pay for the Jets.

Brian, help me out here and elaborate...


The New England Patriots (10-1) at The Cleveland Browns (3-8)
Against the Spread: Patriots 8-1-2 | Browns 4-7-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Patriots -7.5 -107 Over/Under 41.5u -101
Current High NFL Betting Line: Patriots -12 -105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Patriots -7.5 -110
Over/Under 39.5u to 41.5u -110

The Patriots are the best team in the NFL today. Rarely will comments of that nature come from me, but they have earned it. It can be said not because of their play in any one area, but rather because of the ability to adapt to situations, a superior coaching staff, namely Belichick and Crennel, and their play in all areas of the game. QB Tom Brady doesn't have a stellar completion percentage, nor an elite level QB Rating, but he is a leader who is smart on the field. Here is a QB that has thrown 18 TD's to his 8 INT's which means he doesn't do dumb stuff. RB Corey Dillon has been an outstanding asset to this team, giving them the ability to eat up clock and keep even the best of defenses questioning themselves, just ask Ray Lewis or Ed Reed of Baltimore. WR Deion Branch's return has been an obvious boost to their passing game.

New England has injuries through-out the secondary and are down to using WR's as package guys to make up for it. Yet they have 14 interceptions, 14 forced fumbles and a staggering 34 sacks (second in the NFL) to their credit. Opponents have to study more against them than they do against any other defense they face. This is primarily due to the fact that every game they come out on the field with a new way to disguise their defensive schemes. And they disguise them well. They made the best defense in the NFL (Ravens) look second best!

The Browns are in complete disarray both on the field and in the office. Scrambling to decide what to do at the QB position along with their front office woes has got to be factor in every game from here on out. Their “could have been” stud WR Andre Davis, who has been out of commission for the last several weeks, gave the Browns his walking papers. Rookie QB Luke McCown will get his NFL debut in the worst possible situation when he faces off against the Pat's pass rush. Never mind the fact that he reminds you of one David Klingler, drafted by Cincinnati some years ago, and who was a total bust. You know that look, deer in the headlights...

Oh yeah, almost forgot... they will also have a Rookie head coach, Terry Robiskie leading the charge.

Defensively what's really to be said. They gave up 58 points last week. 58! To the Bengals! With Carson Palmer and Rudi Johnson! Sorry about the “!”'s but what the heck... See my write-up about this game and the overall state of the Bengals Nation later this weekend over on another friend and Sports Blogger, Tom Schaller's Bronczilla.

Back to the point, they can't stop much of anything, at 26th against the rush and 14th against the pass they don't scare a powerhouse like that of they Patriots (never mind Belichick's remark about them being the best 3-8 team in the NFL). Additionally they have been hammered by good teams and it's been close against mediocre to bad teams (like Dallas or Washington). There is the exception which was the Browns V Bengals first meeting this season in which Cleveland walked away with a victory by 17 points

None of this really matters, this game seems an easy pick even with a 10pt. Spread. Cleveland just doesn't have what it takes this season and New England, barring anything major, is Super-Bowl Bound.


My Online Betting Action: The Patriots -8



The Denver Broncos (7-4) at The San Diego Chargers (8-3)
Against the Spread: Broncos 4-5-2 | Chargers 9-1-1
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: The Chargers -2.5 -118 Over/Under 47u -113
Current High NFL Betting Line: Chargers -3 -100 to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Chargers -2.5 -110
Over/Under 47u to 48u -110


The Chargers have made intelligent sports writers sound like broken records and less than intelligent ones sound like morons. QB Drew Brees, in typical contract year style, is out performing any and all expectations. He has a QB rating of 108, completion percentage of 65.8, and more amazingly than those numbers, has only 3 picks versus his 21 passing TD's. Along with TE Antonio Gates, who is second only to T.O. in receiving touchdowns, they have this offense sitting at #6 passing and are just a notch below the Colts in average points per game (29). RB LaDainian Tomlinson is a workhorse and even though his average per carry isn't very good (3.8yds) he gets the job done when needed. Being one of the best in 3rd down situations and the second highest scoring RB in the NFL (11 TD's. Priest is #1 w/14).

Defense is another matter altogether though.

San Diego has talent defensively, and can stop the rushing game cold. Their biggest issue is against the pass. This is only going to be compounded by the loss of CB Sammy Davis who fractured his leg last week in S.D.'s win over KC. The Chargers have subsequently signed CB Robb Butler to their active roster, and will be starting youngster Drayton Florence over on the right side. This is not the extent of their issues in the secondary by any means. Already lacking depth at the safety position, with only Terrence Kiel and Jerry Wilson producing numbers, having Wilson dinged up isn't going to help. Luckily they are at home and playing the haphazard offense of the Denver Broncos.

QB Jake Plummer is one of those players that makes you wonder who is going to show up at game-time. The one that throws for 400+ yards and 3 int's or the one that throws for 200+ yards and 4 td's. The difference with Plummer is that you may get both during any one game. Just look at what happened to them at home, in the snow, against the Raiders. Jake threw for 240+ yards and a TD, but also threw a pick (I know Tom, it was batted at the line) in the fourth quarter that resulted in an 11 point lead for Oakland. His problems could be exacerbated by the injuries to WR's Ashley Lelie and Rod Smith as well as RB Reuben Droughns.

Bottom line, both of these teams have a lot at stake in this game. If Denver can get the win they take over as AFC West leaders with a 4-1 divisional record and 2 wins over San Diego. But the stakes are equally as high for the Chargers, who looked like they were out of the playoff picture entirely a week ago. If they get the victory, they take a 2 game lead in the division, and leave Denver in the position of having other teams determine their post season hopes.

All that being said San Diego is the better team. They have been more consistent, have more talent in the RB and QB positions, and Antonio Gates has big play making ability the likes of which hasn't been seen in San Diego since the days of Air Coryell. Inconsistent play, lack of discipline and no stand out play-makers (argue about Lelie all you want) has been the order of the day in Denver.

Just looking at the ATS, at 4-5-2 Denver is not a good bet. The Chargers with the best ATS (9-1-1) are. With what's at stake and potentially Brees' future on the line, my money goes to the Chargers.

My Online Betting Action: The Chargers -3

Let the flaming begin...

That's it for Sunday. Next stop, Monday Night Football.