Friday, December 17, 2004

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Picks of The Week 15

The NFL Saturday Games


The Pittsburgh Steelers (12-1) at The N.Y. Giants (5-8)
Against the Spread: Steelers 8-4-1 | Giants 5-8-0
Game Time: 1:30 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Steelers -11.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Steelers -10 -110
Over/Under 34u to 34.5u -110
Already have an Online Wager on the Steelers and the Under

Roethlisberger is now sitting with a QB rating of 97.6 with a completion percentage 0f right around 68%. That's all well and good, but Burress will still be out as will “The Duce”. Bettis has to do the job again, and he has appeared to be able to do it well. Even though the have an average offense, they have a defense that can fill in the gaps

The Steelers D is top notch across the board and they have one of the better Give-Away Take-Away numbers in the NFL at +13. They are also darned good at turning those into points, 18 from interceptions, 24 from fumbles. That is what should hold this game somewhat tight but ultimately result in a 13-1 record for the Steelers.

The Giants with Eli can't seem to get anything right, he's thrown 1 TD and 6 INT's, he doesn't even qualify for the QB ratings, Kurt has better numbers. His brother wasn't even that bad in his rookie year (26/28 rating 71.2). Bottom line, he looks completely confused once he gets the ball. Amani Toomer has caught 5 passes in the last 3 games amounting to a total of 118 yards. Jeremy Shockey, who had been their saving grace, only came up decent last week and he hasn't seen the endzone in 3 games. Even the once proud Tiki Barber's numbers have dwindle to next to nothing. He's gained under 100 yards in the last two games. This is from an RB who looked like he was going to set career high numbers this year. This could go on, but no sense in belaboring the obvious.

They have one of the worst offenses all the way across the board since Eli took over. It's not all his fault, but when you can't trust your QB to lead, it brings the whole team down.

N.Y.'s D had been something to worry about, Quoth the raven, `Nevermore'. In Gives/Takes their only +1, and they can't score defensively, 12 total points to the D's credit. What was once a truly solid defense has been relegated to just above average.
Here are the numbers:
20.5 points given a game. 316.8 Total yards, 137.5 Rushing & 179.3 Passing.
They can get through the weaker O lines, Pittsburgh's O line isn't that weak. They may have an overall ranking of 10th, but with a rush ranking of 26th it's probably not going to help. Their 6th rush ranking is suspect as well, see what the Bus does to that.

My Online Betting Action: The Steelers -10 The Under 34.5


Recent Trends
•Over is 3-0 in the last three meetings.
•Steelers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 overall.
•Under is 6-0 in PIT last six overall.
•Giants are on a six game losing streak ATS.
•Under is 8-4 in NYG last 12 overall.
•NYG are 0-6 ATS in their last six games in Dec.

The Washington Redskins (4-9) at The San Fransisco 49ers (2-11)
Against the Spread: Redskins 6-7-0 | 49ers 96-7-0
Game Time: 5:00 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Redskins -4 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Redskins -3.5 -110 to -114
Over/Under 36.5u to 37u -110
Redskins proved that their D is a tough nut to crack, 49ers aren't that kind of nutcracker. Wager already on Washington.

Not even going to bother with a bunch of jargon on this game. The Redskins outclass the 49ers. They win I win. Period.

My Online Betting Action: The Redskins -3.5 Maybe! The Under 37 Undecided

Recent Trends
•WAS is 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
•Under is 10-3 in WAS last 13 overall.
•WAS is 3-0 ATS in their last three overall.
•SF is 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
•Over is 8-4 in SF last 12 games in Dec.
•Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in SF.

The Carolina Panthers (6-7) at The Atlanta Falcons (10-3)
Against the Spread: Panthers 8-5-0 | Falcons 6-7-0
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Falcons -3.5 -100 to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Falcons -3 -120 to -125
Over/Under 38u -110
Atlanta outplayed themselves last week. They are going to have a much tougher game against the Panthers. One to look at for sure.

Looked and Looked... then looked at the Panthers ATS and starting crunching.

The Panthers, even with an injured Delhomme are playing great ball. He has a QB rating of 82.3 and has thrown for over 3000 yards. They may not have much in the way of a running game with the injuries to their starting and subbing RB's, but they sure can pass the ball. Muhsin Muhammad has cranked out 7 touchdowns and 600 yards in the last 5 games. Ricky Proehl has been such a clutch receiver and has gotten them out of jams and kept drives alive, even though his numbers don't show it. The same could be said of Keary Colbert, who is a sideline catching fool. And How about that punter, Todd Sauerbrun, is he as good as it gets or what. Average of 44.4 per kick. 20 inside the opponents twenty yard line. 6 inside the 10. All the punters that have better numbers have punted well over his 60.

Carolinas D is really picking up the pace. They aren't great, but they are ample. Particularly against a team such as the Falcons. The are dead center over all at 16th, 16th against the rush and 22nd against the pass. The rushing game is what they are going to need to do best. That and containing Vick.

Atlanta, despite their record, has impressed me very little. If Vick is kept to having to actually be a quarterback not a running back, they look bad. They have the number 1 rushing game, but again that is primarily due to Vick. Dunn hasn't been bad, but he hasn't been all that good either. He's only rushed for over 100 yards twice all year. The majority of the time he's in the 50 range. He's scored a grand total of 7 times, nothing to write home about there. Duckett has been about useless and is now out and will probably end up on IR with his knee injury. Other than TE Alge Crumpler, the receivers have seen little to no duty. Peerless Price, Dez White, Brian Finneran and Michael Jenkins have amased a grand total of 1009 yards combined. So the 22nd pass D of the Panther's doesn't really come into play except in the redzone when Vick can't run it in and HAS to look for Alge.

The Falcons come in at 10th against the pass and 21st aginst the rush. Their Give/Take is +3, but they do have the ability to convert those into points. 18 on interceptions and 24 on fumbles. This was one of the things that was worrisome when making a pick on this one. In fact, it was almost left alone based on that. But the reality is their D doesn't seem to be capable of overcoming their obvious problems on offense when they face a scoring team. Plus Tampa shut them out!

My Online Betting Action: The Panthers +3.5 Or Money Line

Recent Trends
•Under is 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings.
•CAR is 6-1 ATS in their last seven overall.
•Over is 3-0 in CAR last three road games.
•Under is 17-5 in ATL last 22 overall.
•Under is 6-1 in ATL last seven games in Dec.
•ATL is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.