NFL Online Betting Against the Spread Week 4 Part One

The Cincinnati Bengals(1-2) at The Pittsburgh Steelers(2-1)
Opening NFL betting line Steelers -3.5 -110 Over/Under 39 -110
Current High Steelers -5 -110
Current Low Steelers -4 -110
Over/Under 38-39 -110

I wrote about 250 words on this match-up and as I read I realized that I was doing exactly what I was trying to avoid. I just can't be objective when talking about The Bengals. The fact is I love this team and that makes everything I write suspect. Even when I'm writing a disparaging paragraph about them I'm overly harsh, because My Opinions of what should be happening on the field are not happening. So I'm going to refrain from giving a take on this game, but I'm saving my draft, and will post it later for anyone who may be interested.

The Indianapolis Colts(2-1) at The Jacksonville Jaguars(3-0)
Opening NFL betting line Colts -3.5 -110 Over/Under 42 -110
Current High Colts -4.5 -110
Current Low Colts -3.5 -115
Over/Under 43 -110

Well For those that saw The Packers vs. The Colts we all know what's in store for The Jacksonville Jaguars. Even though The Jaguars Secondary is not nearly as suspect as the Packs', sitting towards the top of the heap at a solid 8th against the pass, let us not forget the weapons that are at the disposal of Payton Manning. Could we see Tight End Dallas Clark finally emerge on the scene this week? If that happens it will only mean more bad news for The Jaguars.

Ah, The Jaguars... Despite only having scored a total of 35 points in the first 3 games they sit atop their division ahead of The colts by one game, and stand proud as one of only 6 teams that are undefeated. But they are going to have to do a lot to keep that lofty status this Sunday. Despite the fact that they will be going up against the leagues worst defense (32nd overall) they are going to have to be a different team offensively than we have seen thus far to make it a game that their defense can keep them in. They have won the close ones because they were close. They have thus far played ball against mediocre offenses, and this ain't a mediocre offense. They have not shown the prowess that they are going to have to have on the offensive side of the ball to keep up.

Analysis: If you can get them -3.5 or 4, it's not a horrible bet. The Over/Under I would stay away from.
Side Notes: Colts are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six overall, Colts are 1-6 ATS in last seven played in Oct., Jaguars are 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.

The New England Patriots(2-0) at The Buffalo Bills(0-2)
Opening NFL betting line Patriots -5.5 -110 Over/Under 35.5 -110
Current High Patriots -6.5 -110
Current Low Patriots -5.5 -110
Over/Under 35 -110

The New England Patriots sit tied with the N.Y. Jets in the AFC East and are also undefeated. They are coming off a bye week which means, well it means nothing really. This early in the season, it just doesn't mean as much as those teams that are going to be getting theirs in weeks 7-10. Those players that it could have impacted, namely WR Deion Branch and QB Tom Brady, it didn't. Well maybe it aided Brady a bit, giving him the opportunity to rest his shoulder an extra week. But he's listed as Probable and will start and it would have been the same last week. Branch is Doubtful, will probably not play, and that wouldn't have been any different last week. They, and I mean the The Pats' as a whole, didn't really need a break and in fact it might be to their detriment. In week one those beat The Colts in a close game and had just started to show us a bit of the NFL Championship winning offense in the win against The Arizona Cardinals in week two. But that being what it may, they are relatively healthy, are the reigning Champions and have everything to prove. Brady may not be the best QB in the game but he is a true leader and that counts for a ton in this day and age.

The Bills however are stingy when it comes to giving up points, holding their opponents to an average of only 13 points and giving up only 249 total yards a game. They are 4th against the rush and 6th against the pass, despite the loss of Strong Safety Lawyer Milloy in the pre-season. So where's the catch? It's two fold really, first the numbers are deceiving. To begin with, their first game was against The Jaguars, and we know what kind of offense they can mount, their second was against The Raiders. Who, until last weeks game, were just a whisper above The Jags'. But it doesn't stop there, they LOST to both of them. Now the second part, I for one am still waiting for the resurgence of QB Drew Bledsoe and The Bills Offense that I keep hearing talk about but have yet to see materialize. Bottom line even at home I don't think they will be getting their first win of the season this weekend.

But wins and losses don't always matter when it comes to handicapping, so when it comes down to laying money on this game I have to lean towards staying away from this one. The Pats' could as easily cover as not. It's a coin flip in my opinion. The Over/Under on the other hand is not nearly as treacherous. If you want action on this game and were asking my opinion I would say, “make it small and take the Under at 35”.
Side Notes: The last 10 meetings have played Under, Under is 16-2 in Bills last 18 overall.

The N.Y. Giants(2-1) at The Green Bay Packers(1-2)
Opening NFL betting line Packers -7 -110 Over/Under 44 -110
Current High Packers -7.5 Even
Current Low Packers -7 -110
Over/Under 43.5-44 -110

The N.Y. Giants are not playing giant football, but they aren't without merit either. They lost to a much better team in their Home opener to The Philadelphia Eagles, and The Eagles covered. They walked on the field an underdog to The Washington Redskins and won. Then did exactly what they were supposed to do in beating The Cleveland Browns, covering the spread in the process. Now the face off against The Packers. Boy, oh boy, I don't like this one. The Giants are hurting at nearly every position, and their lack of depth due to this means that any injury during this game is going to have an impact. The most susceptible point being in the secondary. With the injury reserved list in all likelihood getting the name Shaun Williams (Strong Safety) added another strike there could be the proverbial straw. I have to say that they have played proudly despite these problems but are really going to have their plate full when they hit Lambeau Field. Quarter Back Kurt Warner and crew are going to have to try and follow suit, and do as much damage in the air as they can.

Now we move on to the Packers, who are not fairing much better in their secondary. With CBs Mike McKenzie and Ahmad Carroll both listed as Questionable and the vulnerability that was exposed and exploited by The Colts, they also have the problem of being hurt nearly everywhere else on defense. The rift in the locker room, trade talk about McKenzie and the ailing shoulder of QB Brett Favre all add up to a tough road ahead for The Packs'. Running Back Ahman Green is going to have to step up big for this game. If the Packers can't do a good job of clock management with long drives that keep their desolated defense on the sidelines it mean the first three game losing streak in Mike Sherman's five seasons at the helm.

Enough rambling, let's get to the heart of this, my “pick”. The Packers certainly have the skills to cover 7 points on the offensive side of the ball but can they keep The Giants from lashing right back at them. I think they can. Favre is known for his ability to come big when the chips are down. They are going to be at home, and that is worth more than the standard 3 points in this case. I may actually put a little of my own money on this one.

Bottom line Packers -7 is worthy of a early season small wager. Probably a safer bet, however, is the Over. Particularly if you can get it down around the 43 mark.
Side Notes: Packers are 3-1 ATS in the last three meetings, Giants are 2-5 ATS in last seven Oct. games, Packers are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 overall

Well I ended up writing a lot more than I intended so I'm going to break here and finish with the rest of week 4 tomorrow. My thanks for dropping in and taking a peek.