Saturday, November 06, 2004

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Week 9

Quick version of this weekends wagering

The Kansas City Chiefs (3-4) at The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-5)
Against the Spread: Chiefs 3-4-0 | Buccaneers 2-3-2
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Chiefs -3 -114 Over/Under 44u -111
Current High NFL Betting Line: Chiefs -3.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Chiefs -3 -100 to -105
Over/Under 44.5u -110

The Chiefs have allowed a ton of points and have not faced off against an opponent with a defense like that of the Buccaneers. They have an inferior defense, but it is one that is improving, albeit slowly.

Kansas City comes in with the number 1 rushing game and the 9th passing attack. Quarterback Trent Green is once again starting to set himself apart as a premier passer. Primarily by keeping his wits about him, showing good ball control and being a leader. Running back Priest Holmes is doing what he does best, everything. He is laying the foundation that allows the passing game to get off the ground (no pun intended).

This has helped in a couple of areas. Scoring, obviously. But a little less obvious is that they are giving the defense a chance to rest which means they are just a little fresher at the end of the game (compared to weeks 1-5).

I know that the sheets show a good defense in the Buccaneers, but that stat is bolstered by the passing D (1st), and that will only take them so far. Heck they gave up 30 points to OAKLAND!

They have running back Michael Pittman, wide-out Michael Clayton, and quarterback Brian Griese. That's it. I'm done naming play-makers for the Bucs' offense. Honestly speaking, throwing Pittman and Griese in there is based purely on their play the last two games. They had receiver Charles Lee but his effectiveness ended in St. Louis, and he is a listed as questionable for Sunday.

"Some people say that we're struggling, but I still think we have a legitimate team"
Joe Jurevicius


Tampa Bay might have a lot of heart, just not a lot of stuff on the field. They could be getting receivers Joe Jurevicius and Joey Galloway back, but even assuming starts from both of them, they have been out for the last six games. One has to question how much of an impact they will make.

This means that the defense is going to be spending a good deal of time on the field. Couple that with the fact that they are not very good against the rush (21st), they are going to have a tough time containing Kansas City's offense.

My Online Betting Action: The Chiefs -3.


The New York Jets (6-1) at The Buffalo Bills (2-5)
Against the Spread: Jets 4-2-1 | Bills 4-3-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Jets -3 -122 Over/Under 36u -110
Current High NFL Betting Line: Jets -3.5 -105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Jets -3 -100 to -115
Over/Under 36.5u -110

The Jets are getting fired up, finally! Touting quarterback Chad Pennington's abilities has been tough this year, seeing as he has not thrown all that much. Last week was a sort of “coming out” party for him. He threw 3 touchdowns and had about 200 yards on 12 or so passing attempts. No, these are not jump out at you numbers, but they are better than what they have been and averaging 10yds a pass ain't bad. Particularly considering those yards and touchdowns had to be taken away from the number 2 passing defense in Miami's Patrick Surtain and Sam Madison.

Running back Curtis Martin and LaMont Jordan combined for over 200 yards rushing. This was against a pretty weak rushing defense, so you can't read too much into that. But the play making of receivers Justin McCareins, Wayne Chrebet and Santana Moss you can read a lot into.

Buffalo may not have Surtain or Madison, but they do have a more well rounded defense than that of Miami. At 4th and 5th against the rush and pass, respectively, they are going to be a tougher opponent than the Dolphins where.

Here again though, defense only gets you part way there. You have to be able to do something other than punt or turnover the ball when you have it on offense. The Bills, more to the point QB Drew “our offense needs to get better” Bledsoe, have not done much but that. They did score 38 points last week... against the Cardinals.

”Buffalo
Willis McGahee and the Bills flexed their muscles against the Cardinals.


Hope they enjoyed that game, because there is little doubt that they are going to be looking a bit different after this Sundays.

This line has me scratching my head, much the same as the Chiefs +1.5 line did last week. It has to be the fact that when they met in week 5 the Jets only beat them by 2. The Jets have come a long way since week 5, Buffalo hasn't.

My Online Betting Action: The Jets -3.


The Philadelphia Eagles (7-0) at The Pittsburgh Steelers (6-1)
Against the Spread: Eagles 5-2-0 | Steelers 5-2-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Eagles -1 -103 Over/Under 44u -112
Current High NFL Betting Line: Eagles -1.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Eagles -0 -110
Over/Under 44u to 44.5u -110 to -112

Not really going to say a bunch about this game. The Eagles are what the Eagles are. Pittsburgh is what Pittsburgh is. The only question is “Who's better?”.

The answer could be in any number of forms. Philadelphia's golden child, Terrell Owens, has taken the front seat in the press for Reid and McNabb. They can relax now. He has come up big every game so far, with no reason to see an end to it.

The Eagles defense is one that is best described as bend but don't break. They let you get yards, they just don't let you score much. By contrast, no one has kept them from scoring. Their worst showing was last week against the Ravens. TO only got in once. The “bend but don't break” defense was exactly that, they gave up 327 yards but only 10 points. They are the second least scored on team in the NFL, and would be the least if it were not for the aberration that was the Phili-Cleveland match-up.

Pittsburgh's new ace in the hole, running back Duce Staley, has taken some of the kids off the Bus, allowing Jerome Bettis to age with grace. He has also helped establish enough ground game to let young gunner Ben Roethlisberger (typing that name is like being caught in Chinese finger cuffs) get into the mix and find his receivers, Plaxico Burress and Hines Ward in the open field.

Added to that for the Steelers is a solid defense that is playing healthy (relatively speaking, of course) and an offensive line that's standing up pretty well. Roethlisberger has only been sacked a handful of times, and they soften up the middle of defenses early by their hard nosed blocking and punch and run ground game. This does the obvious and already stated for the passing game.

Now that that's done, what's the bottom line?

The Eagles have that intangible something that wills them to victories even when things are not running as smooth as they would like. The Cleveland and Baltimore games are prime examples. So once again...

Tough game, Yes. Eagles first loss, No.

My Online Betting Action: The Eagles -0.


The New Orleans Saints (3-4) at The San Diego Chargers (5-3)
Against the Spread: Saints 2-5-0 | Chargers 6-1-1
Game Time: 4:05 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Chargers -6.5 -103 Over/Under 49 -102
Current High NFL Betting Line: Chargers -7 -105 to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Chargers -6.5 -105 to -110
Over/Under 49u -102 to -110

The New Orleans Saints walk into this game an undaunted nothing. Calling them undaunted nothings has a point, they don't get fired up about anything, winning losing, it doesn't matter. Consistently they never show any signs of emotion at all. To call them lethargic would be an insult to the Sloth.

They are arguably the worst coached team in the league. The talent that they do have goes under managed at best and at worst left to it's own devices.

Enough said, they stink.

San Diego is moving with a full head of steam. Quarterback Drew Brees is having the year that was expected of him... three years ago. He's getting solid support from his O line and running back LaDainian Tomlinson is the driving force behind that. Brees has found the love of his heart (at least on the grid iron) in tight end Antonio Gates. They've hooked 49 times for 550 yards and 5 tds.

Fact of the matter is, the running game is doing such A fine job that it's been the Tight End Show when the Chargers come to town. The RB's get them in striking distance, then Brees gets a shot at the endzone before they put it back on the ground. When they are in those first and ten from the 15-25 mark he's looking up the tight end. Their paying him off. Of the 11 touchdowns scored through the air the tight ends count for 7 of them (Justin Peelle has 2).

By the way, Tomlinson and fellow back Jesse chatman have been upgraded to probable, with Chatman peddling his way back and Tomlinson seeing some practice time on Friday.

My Online Betting Action: The Chargers -6.


The Seattle Seahawks (4-3) at The San Fransisco 49ers (1-6)
Against the Spread: Seahawks 3-4-0 | 49ers 4-3-0
Game Time: 4:05 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Seahawks -7 -114 Over/Under 39.5u -104
Current High NFL Betting Line: Seahawks -7.5 -105 to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Seahawks -6.5 -110
Over/Under 40.5u to 41u -110

Just when it looked like the Seahawks were going to cover, they go and let Carolina get a deep shot at the 2 minute warning. So those who had action on this game, like me, go to watch a loss, turn into a win, and right back into a loss again. All within an agonizing thirteen minutes and thirty-two seconds, the last two minutes and four seconds being the most painful of all.

And yet my action is once again with the Seahawks. They are playing the 49ers and it's not a double digit spread. How can you not bet this game?

Couple of quick key notes on the Seahawks; WR Darrell Jackson will be a game-time decision, and Bobby Engram is doubtful. This means that Koren Robinson is going to have his number called a lot. It also means that if Jerry Rice can manage it, he will get the nod to start against is old team.

Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is going to face a softer passing D in the 49ers than he did last week. With running back Shaun Alexander setting a nice pace for the offense against a less than rushing D, Hasselbeck should be able to get into rhythm and find success when he needs to.

San Fransisco will most likely see Tim Rattay back at the helm. That helps everyone who has him on their Fantasy Football squad, but it doesn't mean a whole lot to the 49ers.

Running back Kevin Barlow has been a bust as a starter. Wide receivers Cedrick Wilson and Brandon Lloyd have barely made a mark. If it were not for tight end Eric Johnson they would not have the tenth ranked passing game, as he accounts for almost a third of their total passing yards.

Injuries have plagued them at key areas and they are penniless to do anything about it. The 49ers are caught between a rock and a hard place, they keep losing players and have no money to get replacements.

They have been relegated to getting only the bottom of the barrel because they are paying for key players on someone else's team. Personally, this doesn't bother me, as my distaste for the 49ers is long and deep.

Anyway, no reason to bore you with more rambling.

49ers = loser
Seahawks = winner

My Online Betting Action: The Seahawks -6.


The Houston Texans (4-3) at The Denver Broncos (5-3)
Against the Spread: Texans 4-3-0 | Broncos 2-4-2
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Broncos -6.5 -108 Over/Under 41.5u -102
Current High NFL Betting Line: Broncos -8 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line Broncos -7 -103
Over/Under 41.5u to 42u -103 to -110

The Houston Texans have been the surprise of the NFL this season. Quarterback David Carr has numbers that put him up there with the likes of Donovan McNabb, Peyton Manning and Dante Culpepper. He consistently throws for 250 yards, and knows how to spread the ball around. Although Houston has lacked a single star in the running back position the tandem of Jonathan Wells and Domanick Davis has been adequate.

What has really shined for the Texans offensively, has been the big plays from wide receiver Andre Johnson and the way that Carr finds the open guy in the endzone, no matter what his number is.

On the other side of the ball they are tied for first in the interceptions category with 11 and lead the league in passes deflected 52. That might be a little ridiculous sounding but it's leading to the fact that the Texans defense has matured. It has matured to the point that it held the Jaguars to very meager numbers and out of the endzone entirely.

Denver has blown two gimmes in a row, to two of the worst offenses/defenses in the NFL. The Cincinnati Bengals and the Atlanta Falcons. They have had little to no help from quarterback Jake Plummer who has had as many interceptions as touchdowns in the last couple of outings. Running back Reuben Droughns, who looked like he was going to pick up where the Q left off was kept darned near stationary last week. As an added bonus he coughed the ball up once in each.

The Broncos defense looked down right terrible last week, laying a hand on Vick only few times and topping it off by getting a defensive holding call the one time they did sack him. They allowed almost 200 yards on the ground to Atlanta and 133 yards to the Bengals (Bengals only average 100 a game).

Kicking a guy when he's down is not what this is about. The fact is, Denver has looked like a 3-5 team not a 5-3 team. Where as Houston has played above their 4-3 standing.

The Texans know they have a real shot at the AFC South. A win in Denver could be the very thing that ignites the fuse for the rocket that sends them into post season play.

My Online Betting Action: The Texans -7.

Sorry to the few that may have been looking for this to be up lastnight. Blogger was struggling and I couldn't get into edit posts once I started. I will put the rest up as I write them...Thanks for dropping by!