First a quick Shout Out to JRF from Breakaway Beach for the nice plug, glad you got that win!
2 of 3, Santa wasn't quite as nice as I had hoped.
The Baltimore Ravens (8-6) at The Pittsburgh Steelers (413-1)
NFL Against the Spread: Ravens 9-5-0 | Steelers 8-5-1
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Steelers -6 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Steelers -4.5 -115
Over/Under 33.5u to 34u -105 to -110
Baltimore is in a “lose and out” situation, Steelers want the first round bye.
The Ravens are 8-6, and behind Denver as of the outcome of tonights game. That puts them in basically a win-out or leave scenario. With only 4 teams clinched in the AFC, figuring out the possible outcomes and who may or may not get in takes a mathematician. Bottom line, they lose they do not see the post season. That's motivation, and this needs it. After the Patriots snapped their 3 game win streak they have lost two of the last three, one of those to the Bengals at home.
Pittsburgh, by contrast, know that they are going to the playoffs. What they seek is the first round bye and Home Field advantage. They are the polar opposite of Baltimore having been on a winning streak since game 3. That said, they showed the weak side a little more with the close victory over the below average Giants last week.
Statistically the Steelers D is without reproach, allowing a very meager 15.7 points a game. They have the #1 rushing D, giving up only 80.9 yards on the ground and the #4 passing D with opposing QB's only getting an average of 177 passing yards against them. In addition to that the have a great Giveaway/Takeaway ratio at +12 and the don't squander all those opportunities. The defense has scored 42 points so far.
The offense isn't quite as stellar, but is not bad by any means. 23 points per game on a very balanced 171 passing and 151 rushing average. They have the 3rd best rushing game, and that's pretty incredible considering that RB Duce Staley has been in and out for a good portion of the year. Jerome Bettis, despite his age and what some might have thought about him early in the season, has gone above and beyond most expectations this year. The passing is what brings there overall ranking down to it's 19 seat (28th pass). Ben Roethlisberger is a rookie and has had his share of lumps as of late. This has kept him on a tight leash within the system, hence his numbers are not very high. He gets the job done, and hasn't “blown” one yet.
Baltimore has a stout and more balanced defense. They are 6th against the rush and 9th against the pass. Their Giveaway/Takeaway numbers aren't as good at +7, but they convert better, with the defense having 54 points to their credit at this point. The Ravens are just as miserly when it comes to giving up points, allowing only 16.1 per game. In fact they are just a notch or so below Pittsburgh in rushing and passing yards allowed at 100.1 and 189.5, respectively, per game.
The Ravens offense is only 3.1 points behind the Steelers at 20 per game. They too are as equally unimpressive in the passing game as they are impressive rushing the ball, with a rushing average of 128.7 but a meager 142.4 through the air. So that does put them behind ranking wise at 30th overall - 9th rush and 31st pass – but not that far behind.
There are two key things that make this game a goos wager. Pittsburgh is a perfect 7-0 at home and WR Plaxico Burress will return to duty. His presence on the field opens things up for both the passing game and the running game.
My Online Betting Action: The Steelers -4.5
Recent Trends
•Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
•Under is 6-1 in the Ravens last seven away.
•BAL is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
•PIT is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
•Under is 6-1 in the Steelers seven games overall.
•PIT is 28-14 in 42 games with total 35pts or less.
The San Diego Chargers (8-6) at The Indianapolis Colts (4-10)
NFL Against the Spread: Chargers 11-1-2 | Colts 9-4-1
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Colts -8 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Colts -7 -105 to -110
Over/Under 57u to 57.5u -107 to -110
San Diego is hot for another win as the underdog.
Not going to bother with the stats because they are too obvious. San Diego is weak against the pass, the Colts are weak against everything.
The Chargers got back to the good old days. It was RB LaDainian Tomlinson doing his thing on the ground and QB Drew Brees Doing his thing in the air. TE Antonio Gates got out of his 1 game slump, snagging his 12th TD as he tied the league record.
This was all done in the snow at Cleveland.
The Chargers have been solid all season, have clinched a playoff berth and the Division Title in the AFC West. The win would move them to the number three seed and give them their best shot at a first round bye and home field advantage. It's not a likely case, but certainly more attainable than what Indianapolis is looking at.
The Colts are the number 4 seed and do have some motivation, but they rely more heavily on other games outcomes to change their situation. Even winning out would not secure a first round bye, as they would still need the Steelers to lose the next two and New England loses it's next two. That's highly unlikely.
There is also the fact that they have not been as offensively strong the last couple of games. With only 23 points scored at Houston and only 20 last week at home.
So even with the Chargers weakness against the passing game this should be a pretty close final.
Two ways on this game.
My Online Betting Action: The Chargers +7 & The Chargers M O +250
Recent Trends
•Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
•SD is 19-6 ATS in their last 25 played in a Dome.
•SD is 6-1 ATS in their last seven played away.
•IND has won the last three meetings ATS.
•Over is 14-5 in Colts last 19 vs. a winning team.
•IND is 5-2 ATS in their last seven at home.
That's it for the early games. Need more time to number crunch for the other two games I have my eye on. Bills and Seattle.
Here are the lines on those two, picks will be up before the early games tomorrow.
The Buffalo Bills (8-6) at The San Fransisco 49ers (2-12)
NFL Against the Spread: Bills 10-4-0 | 49ers 6-8-0
Game Time: 4:305 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bills -13 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bills -11 -105 to -110
Over/Under 43u to 43.5u +105 to -110
This one has Bills written all over it.
Sory, No big post. Bills just so outclass the 49ers that there is no way to not take the value bet with this game. Even based on The Bills ATS it's a solid value wager.
My Online Betting Action: The Bills -10
The New England Patriots (12-2) at The N.Y. Jets (10-4)
NFL Against the Spread: Patriots 9-3-2 | Jets 8-5-1
Game Time: 4:05 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Patriots -3 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Patriots Pick -110
Over/Under 42u to 42.5u -101 to -110
Struggling to find a reason not to expect a rebound from Brady and Company, even at Jets.
Brady, as good as Jets D is, has too much at stake. His reputation not to mention the Pats' Positioning in the Seeding.
Smallish Bet.
My Online Betting Action: The Patriots -2
