Monday, November 22, 2004

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Monday Night Football

The New England Patriots (8-1) at The Kansas City Chiefs (3-6)
Against the Spread: Patriots 6-1-2 | Chiefs 3-6-0
Game Time: Monday 9:00 PM ET ABC Monday Night Football
Opening NFL Betting Line: Patriots -3 -107 Over/Under 52.5u -111
Current High NFL Betting Line: Patriots -3 -105 to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Patriots -3 -105 to -110
Over/Under 52.5u -110
Action already on Patriots -3 and Under 52.5

First of all, WooHoo for me! First solid week this season.

After a series of break-even/minor-loss weekends I had a good Sunday.

4-2-1 --- with two of my wins being big bets and my other big bet being a push, tonights outcome will only be icing on the cake.

Speaking of tonights game...

New England historically does well on MNF, but then again so does KC. That being said the Patriots have seen a few more than the Chiefs have and there is something to be said for being “under the gun”, so to speak, playing on national TV.

Offensively, you can go across the board and every category leans towards the Chiefs. Time of possession, 3rd down percentage, Points for, Yardage, etc. Their biggest problem in the offense is the fact that they will have to go it without RB Priest Holmes again.

Kansas City on the other side of the ball... well, now that's not so good. To go along with their superior stats on offense, they are almost equally as bad in nearly every category on defense. Again, Points Allowed, Yardage, Etc. Sitting at 26th overall, 26th against the pass, 14th against the rush, they are not a formidable adversary.

Their Give-away takeaway ratio is terrible (-5), whereas the Patriots are above average (+4). And again, they are not going to have Holmes to help them keep control of the clock.

Although all this makes it even tougher for Kansas City, this may not be quite as damaging as it would seem. Running back Derrick Blaylock had a good outing last week rushing for 186 yards on 30+ carries. So the ground game isn't completely gone with-out Holmes.

Still missing from New England's lineup will be corners Ty Law and Tyrone Poole. The Patriots have been without these guys for the last few weeks and have rebounded nicely after the loss to Pittsburgh. They beat Buffalo by 23 and more key to this match-up, handled the pass attack of Bulger and the receiving corp of the Rams, taking that game by 18 points.

That game tells me they can keep pace with big offenses even with those guys missing. No doubt they would love to have them in the backfield, but they aren't a bust without them.

On offense, the Patriots have shown time and again that they can go toe to toe with darned near anyone.

The under was a good choice primarily due to the fact that Priest was going to be out of the line-up. On further review it may not have been such a good wager.

In any case, here's what we have cooking tonight:


My Online Betting Action: The Patriots -3 | Under 52.5