NFL Online Betting Against the Spread Week 4 Part Two

The Oakland Raiders(2-1) at The Houston Texans(1-2)
Opening NFL betting line Raiders -2 -110 Over/Under 42.5 -110
Current High Raiders -3 -115
Current Low Raiders -2 -110
Over/Under 42-42.5 -110

What can I really say about this game? The Raiders are bad, they lost to the underachieving Pittsburgh Steelers and their two wins are against arguably the worst looking offenses in the NFL. That being the Buffalo Bills and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, ranked 27th and 30th overall, respectively. What's more they allowed the Bucs' to score their first TD of the season, in route to their 30 to 20 victory. Oakland managed to up their overall offensive ranking with that win but they are still dismal. Granted they have something in the defense, but it isn't all that stellar and let us not forget that they are going to be without QB Rich Gannon. Did I mention that they allowed the Buccaneers first TD?

The Houston Texans are not any better. They have a middle of the road defense ranking of 15th and the same on the other side of the ball at 14th. The same thing has to be said about that number as I said about Oaklands', it was much bolstered by their win against the Kansas City Chiefs. Not exactly what you would call a dramatic, season changing win.
This will be a game that only the die-hard fans of either team will be able to watch with any enthusiasm what so ever.

Putting money on this game in any form is a waste, God only knows what could come of this match-up. If you have to have action, stick to a small wager and look at the Under 42.5 or higher.
Side Notes: Under is 19-9 in Raiders last 28 vs. Conf. Opp., Over is 5-1 in Houston in the last six played in October, Texans are 8-3 ATS last 11 vs. winning teams.

The Philadelphia Eagles(3-0) at The Chicago Bears(1-2)
Opening NFL betting line Eagles -8.5 -110
Current High Eagles -10 -105
Current Low Eagles -8.5 -115
Over/Under 39-40 -105 to -110

The Eagles are soaring but are they really soaring that high? Let's take a look at those three wins. Week 1 was against the N.Y. Giants who were playing at their worst with gaping wounds on both sides of the ball. Week 2 brought us the first real test of the Eagles D against the Minnesota Vikings. They held them to only 16 points and showed that they have a bit of defense (sorry Bronczilla, gotta go another direction here). Week 3 ended much as it should have with a thorough routing of the Detroit Lions. Although they rank a meager 24th overall defensively, that doesn't tell the whole story. They are in the top five when it comes to points allowed, with opponents only able to dig out 15.3 a game. And this has all been done ON THE ROAD. Maybe this is a fluke, just the right teams to play at the right time. Maybe it is superior coaching on the part of Phili'. But maybe, just maybe, they really are putting a solid defense on the field, that is allowing yardage, but not scoring.

Now let's move on to the Chicago Bears. With the loss of QB Rex Grossman adding to the already extensive IR list, the injury plague continues unabated in Chicago. This means that QB Jonathan Quinn will sit behind center, and will be doing a lot of handing the ball off. Philadelphia will be loading the box against the Bears to stop the only thing that they have left, RB Thomas Jones. Although the passing game was starting to warm up with Grossman throwing to wide receivers David Terrell and Bobby Wade, that's not going to continue with Quinn. They are going to have to fall back to the Bears of old with a ground and pound attitude. So even though I greatly respect what they have done with what they have, I just don't see their defense keeping them in this one for four quarters.

My take is simple, Phili isn't Green Bay or Minnesota or Detroit. They are on a rush and I don't see the Bears putting a stop to it. It will probably come late in the game but it will come, the Eagles will go up by 10 and stay there. I have put a little money on this game and it's for the Eagles -8.5.
Side Notes: Road team is 3-1 ATS in last four meetings, Eagles are 10-3 ATS in last 13 vs. sub .500 teams, Bears are 6-2 ATS in their last eight at home.

The Washington Redskins(1-2) at The Cleveland Browns(1-2)
Opening NFL betting line Redskins -3 -110 Over/Under 36 -110
Current High Redskins Unchanged
Current Low Redskins Unchanged
Over/Under 35.5-35 -110

This is another gut it out game. The Redskins give up 100+ yards less in the air, 50+ yards less on the ground and the point differential is negligible(less than a point diff.) Washington has the number 3 ranked defense and even though the offense isn't what coach Joe Gibbs wants it to be yet, it's starting to show sparks of life. The Redskins MNF game against the Cowboys showed us that much. Clock management, or lack there of, was all that kept that game from going into OT. QB Mark Brunell had his game face on and if it wasn't for a couple of key dropped balls by WR Laveraneus Coles they may very well have never had to look to a last ditch effort.

The Browns on the other hand opened the season with a big win against AFC North opponent Baltimore Ravens. But that was then and this is now. They have since dropped the last two at home against the Cowboys by 7 and the Giants by 17. While Cleveland may well get back their starting CB Daylon McCutcheon he's not going to be 100% and will be playing with one of three different casts the trainers have made for him. Added into the mix is the fact that their other starting CB, Anthony Henry, is suffering from vertigo. On paper the Browns are behind in almost every category and the 3 point home field advantage is not going to be enough.

Final analysis, if you are going to wager on this game there are two ways to go. The Under is not bad if you can get it at around it's opening mark of 36, but that might be tough to do. Taking the Redskins -3 is also not a terrible wager although I don't think that I will be putting my cash on it.
Side Notes: Under is 5-2 in Redskins last seven overall, Browns last five overall have played Under, Browns are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 overall, Redskins are 1-3 ATS in their last four overall.

The Atlanta Falcons(3-0) at The Carolina Panthers(1-1)
Opening NFL betting line Panthers -3.5 -110 Over/Under 40 -110
Current High Panthers -3.5 -110 to -115
Current Low Panthers -3 -120
Over/Under 38.5-39 -110

The Falcons baffled me with their complete lack of offense last week vs. the Cardinals. What happened Vick? Seriously what the heck went wrong? I think I know. They played a stingy defense. Arizona is another team who's overall DEF ranking does not show the whole picture. They give up yardage to be sure but the have a redzone D that's worth mentioning and a pretty solid pass D. And I think that's what happened last week. QB Michael Vick is going to have to do exactly what coach Jim Mora doesn't want him to do, RUN! The running game is the only chance the Falcons have, because it is the only place the Panthers DEF is suspect.

The Panthers have given up an average 130+ yards a game and are going to have to improve those numbers against the Falcons. They are also another team that weren't really effected with the bye. They are still without RB Stephen Davis and WR Steve Smith and the week off wouldn't have changed that. They have adversity to overcome to be sure, but RB DeShaun Foster continues to get better and WR Keary Colbert appears to be filling in the shoes of oft' injured Steve Smith quite well. I see them coming into their own as the season progresses and think that the Falcons are going to be a small test of that this week.

My take, for what it's worth, is that the Panthers can keep the field long for the Falcons and if they can do a bit better against the rush will win this one by a TD or better. Panthers -3-3.5 is not a crap shoot, and the Under at 39 is a solid pick.
Side Notes: Falcons are 0-3 ATS in their last three played in Oct., Panthers are 1-3 ATS in last four at home in Oct, Under is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings, Under is 12-4 in CAR's 16 when total is 38.5-42, Under is 9-3 in the Falcons last 12 overall.

The New Orleans Saints(2-1) at The Arizona Cardinals(0-3)
Opening NFL betting line Saints -3 -110 Over/Under 40.5 -110
Current High Saints -3.5 -100
Current Low Saints -3 -115
Over/Under 39.5-40 -105 to -115

In a nutshell I don't like this game against the spread. The Saints are a streaky team and can throw away what should be a gimme as easily as win. Couple that with the Questionable list that carries the names of RB Duece McAllister, wide-outs Joe Horn, Talman Gardner, and Jerome Pathon, and it looks worse. But it's the Saints and you just don't know. They may come up big and blow out the Cards' or they may fall apart and give the Cards' their first win of the season.

The Cardinals are one of those teams that look bad on the spread sheet, yet somehow seem to come up with something on the field that keeps them in close games. They have very little offensively and have given up 370 yards in the air and 180 on the ground and yet have managed to hold opponents to an average of only 15 points a game. This includes keeping the reigning Champion Patriots out of the end-zone three times from the 2, 10, and 2-yard line in the second half. They stymied any attack that the Falcons proffered up and kept them out of the end-zone entirely. Does this mean that they are going to get their first win? Not necessarily. But it does mean that the Saints are going to have to SHOW UP to get a win.

Logic would tell you that the Saints cover -3 without issue. But this is football not mathematics. The things in play here are best noted by the adage “On Any Given Sunday”. My advice, stay away from the spread and if you want action take the Under at 40.
Side Notes: Saints are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings, Saints are 5-2 ATS in last seven played in Oct., Under is 13-4 in the Cards last 17 at home, Under is 9-2 in Arizona last 11 played in Oct.

The Denver Broncos(2-1) at The Tampa Bay Buccaneers(0-3)
Opening NFl betting line Broncos -3 -110 Over/Under 36 -110
Current High -3.5 -105
Current Low -3 -125
Over/Under 35 -110

Despite charging from the gate with 156 yards against the Chiefs in week one RB Quentin Griffin has not filled the void left by Clinton Portis. He has subsequently been held to 66 yards on 26 carries against the Jags'. Then shared the load with running backs Garrison Hearst and Tatum Bell (Bell is inactive for game 4) getting a measly 7 yards on 12 carries and Denver was held to only a net of 37 yards on the ground. Now the Chargers are 7th against the rush, so there is at least a reason there. On the flip side, QB Jake Plummer has looked solid, with a passer rating just south of 91, with 774 yards, and 4 end-zone completions. But they are getting ready to play against the QB stat killing Bucs' D.

The Buccaneers have laid waste to quarter backs thus far. Knocking Raiders QB Rich Gannon out and quite frankly making longtime veteran Mark Brunell and young gun Matt Hasselbeck look terrible. The Buccaneers don't have much but a D to bring to the field. They have looked as bad behind the snap as they have made others look. The big difference being that the OTHERS have won. Tampa is playing like coach Jon Gruden looks on the sideline, Ugly.

Bottom Line Denver gets win #3 Tampa goes 0-4. But betting this one against the spread is a bad idea. In fact betting this at all is a bad idea, but if you have to get in the fray then do yourself a favor and take the Under at 35. Oh, and make it small.
Side Notes: Broncos are 0-3 ATS in last four played in Oct., Under is 4-2 in Bronco's last six overall, Under is 6-2 in Buc's last eight played in Oct., Under is 10-4 in Tampa's last 14 games overall.

The N.Y. Jets(2-0) at The Miami Dolphins(0-3)
Opening NFl betting line Jets -5 -110 Over/Under 36 -110
Current High Jets -7 -110
Current Low Jets -6 -105
Over/Under 36.5-37.5 -106 to -110

Now here's a game I can sink my teeth into. The Jets are a team that may have gotten a break with the bye in that they may be getting Kevin Mawae back at center. But even if he doesn't stay there they will shift him to guard and play LG Pete Kendall at center. In either case Mawae is a crucial component to the Jets running game and the extra week to help his hand heal a bit is a good thing. QB Chad Pennington keeps getting better with each passing game. He has earned his unbelievable QB rating of 124.3 by playing smart, controlled football. He's a true leader in the huddle and is the center piece of this franchise. Now that I've stated the obvious let's get to the downside. Defensively they are no powerhouse, they get the job done but it's the offense that is relied on to win games. This is going to be their first real test of that theory.

The Dolphins come into this game a battered team. They have an injury list as long as my arm, have little weaponry at their disposal to put points on the board and no hope that I see of that changing any time soon. The Dolphins don't give up much in the air but they do on the ground. Now they are going to have to play a team that has a solid ground game as well as a solid passing game led by a top notch QB. This is not going to be like playing the Steelers with rookie QB Ben Roethlisberger or the Bengals with upstart QB Carson Palmer or even the seasoned veteran of the Titans, QB Steve McNair. All of those teams hang on the bottom rungs of the rankings. They are playing The Jets. Number three overall and only looking to better the pass ranking of 13th this week.

Pick Of The Week Jets -6 is a solid wager. I grabbed it at -5.5 but I don't see the extra ½ point as being enough to turn your back on this game.
Side Notes: Not going to bother, this Miami team isn't in the ballpark of it's former self. So any and all trends go out with the tide.

The Tennessee Titans(1-2) at The San Diego Chargers(1-2)
Opening NFL betting line Titans -3 -110 Over/Under 41 -110
Current High Unchanged
Current Low Unchanged
Over/Under Unchanged

This is a game that looks to be about as fun to watch as the Raiders vs. Texans. The Titans' QB Steve McNair is a big question mark to play Sunday with a bruised sternum and twisted ankle. Which means that the five year unknown QB Billy Volek might well get the nod. Even if McNair does manage to start he's going to play like he has a good portion of his career, hurting.

The Chargers don't have an injured QB to worry about, they just have to worry about what happens when they put one the field. QB Drew Brees has been a bust from day one. Back-up QB Doug Fluties' best days are way behind him, and they were never what anyone would consider hallmark days. But they do have RB LaDainian Tomlinson. I wish there was more but there just isn't. I could ramble off some random rankings but it's a mute point. These are two teams that are in desperate need.

Bottom line I wouldn't put free money on this game either way although Titans will probably come up with the win. The Over at 41 is just shy of throwing your money away. Best bet stay away from this one.
Side Notes: Over is 6-1 in Titans last seven played in Oct., The last two meetings have played under, Over is 7-3 in the Chargers last 10 in Oct., Over is 8-3 in SD last 11 games overall, Chargers have won the last three meetings ATS.