Thursday, December 30, 2004

NFL Pick of the Week Against the Spread - Betting Lines Week 17

The Final Regular Season NFL Match-ups


The Cincinnati Bengals (7-8) at The Philadelphia Eagles (13-2)
Against the Spread:  Bengals 6-8-1 | Eagles 9-6-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Bengals -3 -101 Over/Under 41u +103
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bengals -3 +105 to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bengals -2.5 -110
Over/Under 39u to 40.5u +105 to -110
I think the same applies to the St. Louis game. Value based on who won't be playing and Lewis wanting to go 8-8.

Recent Trends
•CIN is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
•Over is 4-1 in CIN last five overall.
•CIN is 3-0 ATS in their last three road games.
•Under is 11-3 in the Eagles last 14 overall.
•PHI is 0-3 ATS in their last three overall.
•PHI is 0-3 ATS in their last three games in Jan.

The Cleveland Browns (3-12) at The Houston Texans (7-8)
Against the Spread:  Browns 5-10-0 | Texans 9-6-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Texans -10.5 -102 Over/Under 39u -102
Current High NFL Betting Line: Texans -11 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Texans -9.5 -108 to -110
Over/Under 39u -110
Texans, Maybe? -9.5 is a lot considering how streaky they are. Just the same this game may have value, Dom needs a .500 finish.

Recent Trends
•CLE is 1-7 ATS in their last eight overall.
•Over is 4-1 in the Browns last five on the road.
•Over is 2-0 in CLE previous two games in Jan.
•HOU is 5-1 ATS in their last six overall.
•Under is 7-2-1 in HOU last 10 overall.
•HOU is 8-4 ATS in their last 12 on grass.

The Detroit Lions (6-9) at The Tennessee Titans (4-11)
Against the Spread:  Lions 8-7-0 | Titans 4-11-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Lions -3 -109 Over/Under 45u -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Lions -3 EVEN to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Lions -2.5 -115
Over/Under 44.5u to 46u -105 to -110
There may be value in Detroit, still crunching numbers.

Recent Trends
•DET is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
•DET is 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games.
•Under is 3-0 in DET last three games in Jan.
•TEN is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 overall.
•Over is 8-2 in TEN last 10 home games.
•Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.

The Green Bay Packers (9-6) at The Chicago Bears (5-10)
Against the Spread:  Packers 6-9-0 | Bears 5-10-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Bears -3 -105 Over/Under 34u +101
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bears -3 -110 to -120
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bears -3 -110 to -120
Over/Under 34u to 35.5u +102 to -110
Another tricky one, GB has nothing to gain by winning. Chicago may play to win or play to evaluate.

Recent Trends
•GB is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.
•GB is 2-5 ATS in their last seven overall.
•Over is 9-2 in GB last 11 overall.
•CHI is 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games.
•Under is 5-0 in CHI last five overall.
•Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

The Miami Dolphins (4-11) at The Baltimore Ravens (8-7)
Against the Spread:  Dolphins 6-9-0 | Ravens 9-6-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Ravens -10 +101 Over/Under 34.5u +101
Current High NFL Betting Line: Ravens -12.5 +105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Ravens -10 -110
Over/Under 33.5u to 34u -105 to -110
Baltimore still has a chance at post season. They have to win, but that's not enough. They also need 3 other teams to lose.

Recent Trends
•MIA is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
•Over is 8-2 in MIA last 10 overall.
•MIA is 3-0 ATS in their last three road games.
•BAL is 5-2 ATS in their last seven at home.
•Over is 10-3 in BAL last 13 home games.
•Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings.

The Minnesota Vikings (8-7) at The Washington Redskins (5-10)
Against the Spread:  Vikings 7-8-0 | Redskins 5-10-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Vikings -4 -108 Over/Under 41u -109
Current High NFL Betting Line: Vikings -4 +101 to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Vikings -3.5 -110
Over/Under 40.5u to 41u -105 to -110
Minnesota clinches NFC playoff berth with win. The Redskins are in re-coupe mode. Minnesota is a wager, size yet undetermined.

Recent Trends
•Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
•MIN is 1-5 ATS in their last six overall.
•Over is 5-1 in MIN last six road games.
•Under is 14-5 in WAS last 19 overall.
•WAS is 4-1 ATS in their last five overall.
•WAS is 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings.

The New Orleans Saints (7-8) at The Carolina Panthers (7-8)
Against the Spread:  Saints 7-8-0 | Panthers 59-5-1
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Panthers -8 -106 Over/Under46u -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Panthers -9 +105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Panthers -7.5 -110 to -120
Over/Under 45.5u to 46u -105 to -110
New Orleans is another must win. They are just too poorly coached to wager on them, even with those kind of points.

Recent Trends
•Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
•Under is 6-1 in NO last seven overall.
•Saints are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games.
•CAR is 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine overall.
•Over is 7-2 in CAR last nine overall.
•CAR is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.

The N.Y. Jets (10-5) at The St. Louis Rams (7-8)
Against the Spread:  Jets 8-6-1 | Rams 4-10-1
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Jets -3 +109 Over/Under 43u +109
Current High NFL Betting Line: Jets -3.5 -101 to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Jets -3 -110 to -125
Over/Under 43u to 43.5u -105 to -110
Both the teams are in a “must win” to see the post season. The Jets are in the drivers seat however, as they can seal their fate either way in this game.

Recent Trends
•Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
•Under is 5-1 in NYJ last six overall.
•Jets are 4-2 ATS in their last six overall.
•Rams are 2-7 ATS in their last nine overall.
•Under is 4-0 in STL last four overall.
•STL is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.

The Pittsburgh Steelers (14-1) at The Buffalo Bills (96)
Against the Spread:  Steelers 9-5-1 | Bills 11-4-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Bills -9 -110 Over/Under 34u +102
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bills -10 +105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bills -9 -108 to -110
Over/Under 34u -105 to -110
The Steelers gain nothing by a win, as everything is set for them. Bills win and have a shot, but that's a lot to cover against the D of the Steelers.

Recent Trends
•PIT is 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings.
•Under is 7-1 in PIT last eight overall.
•Over is 7-0 in PIT last seven games in Jan.
•BUF is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 overall.
•Over is 8-1 in BUF last nine overall.
•Under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings.

The San Fransisco 49ers (2-13) at The New England Patriots (13-2)
Against the Spread:  49ers 6-9-0 | Patriots 10-3-2
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Patriots -13.5 -104 Over/Under 37u -106
Current High NFL Betting Line: Patriots -15 +115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Patriots -13.5 -110
Over/Under 37u to 40u EVEN to -110
Pat's have nothing to gain with a win. 49ers couldn't beat OSU on a good day. But covering 2 TD's from back-ups...?

Recent Trends
•SF is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
•SF is 2-7 ATS in their last nine overall.
•Over is 7-2 in SF last nine overall.
•NE is 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 overall.
•NE is 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 games in Jan.
•Under is 3-1 in the last four meetings.

The Atlanta Falcons (11-4) at The Seattle Seahawks (8-7)
Against the Spread:  Falcons 6-8-1 | Seahawks 5-10-0
Game Time: 4:05 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Seahawks -5.5 -105 Over/Under 42.5u +101
Current High NFL Betting Line: Seahawks -6 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Seahawks -5 -103
Over/Under 42u to 42.5u -103 to -110
No Vick + Atlanta set for playoffs = no offense. Medium sized wager on Seattle -5.5.

Recent Trends
•ATL is 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings in SEA.
•Under is 10-3 in ATL last 13 overall.
•ATL is 2-5 ATS in their last seven games in Jan.
•SEA is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 overall.
•Over is 10-2 in SEA last 12 overall.
•Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-10) at The Arizona Cardinals (5-10)
Against the Spread:  Buccaneers 5-8-2 | Cardinals 8-7-0
Game Time: 4:05 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Cardinals -3.5 +107 Over/Under 38u +101
Current High NFL Betting Line: Cardinals -3.5 +105 to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Cardinals -3 -110 to -125
Over/Under 37.5u to 38u +101 to -110
Nothing but pride riding on this game. Tampa is on a 3 game skid while Arizona looks tough.

Recent Trends
•TB is 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 road games.
•Under is 18-8 in TB last 26 overall.
•TB is 3-0 ATS in their last three games in Jan.
•ARI is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games.
•Over is 9-3 in ARI last 12 overall.
•Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.

The Indianapolis Colts (12-3) at The Denver Broncos (9-6)
Against the Spread:  Colts 9-5-1 | Broncos 5-7-3
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Broncos -9 -101 Over/Under 44.5u -112
Current High NFL Betting Line: Broncos -10 +120
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Broncos -8.5 -110
Over/Under 34u to 34.5u -110
Colts are locked at No. 3 seed with the AFC South Title. Denver can clinch with win, but wagering on that is a whole other matter. Denver's just too streaky to lay off those kind of points.

Recent Trends
•Indy is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
•IND is 5-2 ATS in their last seven overall.
•Over is 12-6 in IND last 18 overall.
•DEN is 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 home games.
•Over is 7-3-2 in DEN last 12 at home.
•DEN is 0-3 ATS in their last three games in Jan.

The Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7) at The Oakland Raiders (5-10)
Against the Spread:  Jaguars 9-6-0 | Raiders 6-9-0
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: OTB Over/Under OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current Low NFL Betting Line: OTB
Over/Under OTB
IF one could place a bet online, Jag's still have a shot at the post-season with a win. So if you could bet with Mirage or Caesars at -1.5...

Recent Trends
•Under is 2-0 in the previous two meetings.
•Under is 17-5 in JAC last 22 overall.
•Over is 3-0 in JAC last three games in Jan.
•OAK is 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games.
•Over is 7-2 in OAK last nine overall.
•OAK is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in Jan.

The Kansas City Chiefs (7-8) at The San Diego Chargers (11-4)
Against the Spread:  Chiefs 6-9-0 | Chargers 12-1-2 Best ATS in the League
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Chiefs -3 -108 Over/Under 54.5u -101
Current High NFL Betting Line: Chiefs -3.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Chiefs -3 -116 to -125
Over/Under 53.5u to 54u EVEN to -110
Chargers are locked, taking the hard earned AFC West Title. Vermeil wants to end the season on a high note. Betting against a team with the best ATS is a hard call. Over maybe...?

Recent Trends
•Over is 6-3 in the last nine meetings.
•Over is 8-2 in KC last 10 overall.
•Over is 13-4 in KC last 17 vs. AFC West.
•SD is 11-0-1 ATS in their last 12 overall.
•Over is 10-2 in SD last 12 home games.
•SD is 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings.

The Dallas Cowboys (6-9) at The N.Y. Giants (5-10)
Against the Spread:  Cowboys 7-8-0 | Giants 7-8-0
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET ESPN Sunday Night Football
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Giants -3 +107 Over/Under 37.5u -111
Current High NFL Betting Line: Giants -3 EVEN to +110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Giants -2.5 -105 to -110
Over/Under 37.5u to 38u -110
Last game of the season for both teams. Giants lost a heart breaker to Cincinnati (sans Palmer) last week, while the Cowboys got a victory over the stout D of Washington. Finding value in this game is like trying to find a needle in a haystack.

Recent Trends
•DAL is 4-1 ATS in their last five overall.
•Under is 4-1 in DAL last five overall.
•DAL is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games in Jan.
•NYG are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
•Under is 9-5 in NYG last 14 overall.
•Over is 3-0 in the last three meetings in NY.