1 for 1 so far. Let's see what Santa brings me tomorrow.
The Oakland Raiders (5-9) at The Kansas City Chiefs (6-8)
NFL Against the Spread: Raiders 5-9-0 | Chiefs 6-8-0
Game Time: 5:00 PM ET CBS
Current High NFL Betting Line: Chiefs -9 -100
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Chiefs -7.5 -110 to -117
Over/Under 58u to 59.5u -110
With The Chiefs still mathematically in the running there is at least something riding on this game.
Three weeks ago the Raiders returned home after a hard fought win over Denver in Mile High, with equally high hopes of another win against their Division rivals, Kansas City Chiefs. Those hopes were kept alive for 30 minutes as each team retired to the locker room at halftime with Oakland ahead by 10 points and little doubt that their manhandling of the Chiefs would continue for the remaining 30 minutes of the game. That began to fade within 4:37 of the second half.
After a rather dismal start to the game, QB Trent Green as well as back-up RB Larry Johnson began what was to be a nearly flawless second half, sparked by a 4 ½ minute beginning drive capped off by a five yard TD run by Johnson. Trent Green went 14 of 15 for 229 yards. This included a tie breaking, 70 yard strike to WR Eddie Kennison, with 124 ticks left on the clock. Larry Johnson ran for 118 yards on 20 carries and a rushing TD. He also caught 3 for 56 yards and a receiving touchdown.
But there was more to the Chiefs Come-From-Behind win.
Kansas City all but completely shutdown the Oakland offense, allowing QB Kerry Collins to lead his team on only one scoring drive late in the third quarter. That ended with the only points for Oakland in the second half, with a 26 yard TD pass from Collins to Ronald Curry 42 seconds into the 4th quarter. Collins had one more shot late in the 4th when he hooked up with John Stone for 18 yards and then an 11 yard pass to J.R. Redmond to bring the Raiders into KC territory with about a 1:30 left in the game. But Kansas Cities D came up big for the next four plays, breaking up passes intended for Jerry Porter, Stone and Doug Gabrial as well as sacking Collins on 2-10 for a 9 yard loss.
Oakland rebounded by getting blown out by Atlanta 35-10. Then picked up the 40-35 victory at home against the Titans.
Considering they entered the second half of the season 2-6, the fact that they are sitting at 5-9 is some redemption. They are .500 in their last six and with the exception of the Falcons game have been “in” each game.
The Chiefs are a mathematical possibility for post-season play in the incredibly tight AFC. They are on a three game winning streak, including last weeks pummeling of the Denver Broncos. Trent Green has stepped it up a notch with the absence of Priest Holmes as had RB Derrick Blaylock.
Blaylock, unfortunately for the Chiefs, will probably ot get the nod to start, but Larry Johnson will start and did pretty well against the Raiders in Oakland just a few weeks ago. WR Johnnie Morton will more than likely miss his second straight. What's worse, is the fact that Dante' Hall, who has been filling in for Morton, twisted an ankle during practice and is questionable for tomorrows game. Ever the optimist, Coach Dick Vermeil holds out hope that Hall will be ready to go come game-time. KC's hoping he is right. Depending on Chris Horn's game-time status, Samie Parker my get his 1st start of the season.
Moving on to the rest of injuries worth noting.
DE Vonnie Holliday will miss his second straight, this isn't as bad as it seems. Rookie Jared Allen leads the D in sacks with 8 from RDE, so the shoes have been amply filled.
Gout has Trent Green caught between a Fork and a hard place if 10 time Pro Bowler, OT Willie Roaf can't start. Pain in his feet have kept him out of two days of practice. This means that if he can't go, Trent's blind left side will be in the hands of two unproven commodities in Brett Williams and rookie Kevin Sampson.
On to the Stats:
The Raiders are mediocre across the board offensively. Averaging 20 points a game on a 326yds per game - 251 in the air and a dead last 74 rushing. Their defense is much worse, coming in last in average points against at 28.4. They allow 375 passing and 130 rushing per game. These are not numbers you want to have going up against an offense like that of the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Chiefs offensive numbers are very good. They are the second highest scoring team with an average per game total of 31.5 points. They get that via a league leading 415.5 yards a game – 264.2 in the air and 151.4 on the ground – this without Holmes for the past 4½ games.
The Chiefs are 3-4 both on the road and at home, so being in KC this season has not big as big of an advantage as it has been in past seasons. Oakland, on the other hand has been slightly worse on the road at 2-5.
Other points worth mentioning are the fact that the Chiefs are 2-2 in Divisional games, while Oakland is 1-4. KC is 5-5 in AFC match-ups to Oakland's 3-7.
So with all that nonsense in mind and the simple fact that the Chiefs are a more talented team with more at stake, with their hopes (even slim as the hopes may be) of post-season play on the line, this game is worth a couple of small wagers.
My Online Betting Action: The Chiefs -7 & The Over 59
The Over is based on the scoring ability of KC and the fact that their average totals over the last 8 games is 65.3. Additionaly the total has broken the 60 point mark in 6 of their last 8 and in all of their last four, including the loss to San Diego.
Recent Trends
•Over is 5-2 in the Raiders last seven on the road.
•OAK is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
•OAK is 1-7 ATS as a road dog of 7.5-10pts.
•Over is 10-2 in the Chiefs last 12 played in Dec.
•Over is 12-4 in KC's last 16 vs. Div. Opponents.
•KC is 3-0 ATS in December games this season.
The Denver Broncos (8-6) at The Tennessee Titans (4-10)
NFL Against the Spread: Broncos 4-7-3 | Titans 4-10-0
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET ESPN NFL Saturday Night Game
Current High NFL Betting Line: Broncos -4.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Broncos -3.5 -115
Over/Under 50u to 50.5u -106 to -110
Not with the Popes money.
Even though Denver is in a must win situation tomorrow as well as next week to have any hopes of seeing the playoffs, their game play just doesn't give any value to this game from a wagering perspective.
The Titans are trying stuff and players out, knowing that their season will be over in two weeks. QB Billy Volek is being allowed to stretch his wings and throw the ball around. With RB Chris Brown sidelined, Antowain Smith will share duty with Robert Holcombe obviously. What isn't as obvious is RB Troy Fleming who is rumored to be seeing more carries the next couple of games.
These are all problems for a team in a situation like that of the Bronco's. They are going to be starting their best players, but may see a lot of unknowns (more play calling than players) on the field which can be very distracting. Particularly to defenses that haven't seen films on certain guys and have no idea what to expect from an offense that has nothing to lose by trying out some new material.
If you want some action on this game just for excitements sake, the Over/Under at 50 seems a bit high, so the Under may not be quite as bad as lighting your cigar with a Ben Franklin.
My Online Betting Action: None
Recent Trends
•Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.
•Under is 6-1 in the Broncos last seven away.
•DEN is 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight overall.
•TEN is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
•Over is 5-1 in TEN's six vs. AFC West Opponents.
•TEN is 1-7 ATS in their last eight played in Dec.
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