Friday, December 24, 2004

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Picks of The Week 16

The NFL Friday Match-Up


The Green Bay Packers (8-6) at The Minnesota Vikings (8-6)
Against the Spread: Packers 5-9-0 | Vikings 7-7-0
Game Time: 3:00 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Vikings -3 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Vikings -3 -120
Over/Under 56u to 56.5u -110
Holy Mackerel what a game...

One thing is for sure, nothing...

The Over has all kinds of potential.

Neither Green Bay nor Minnesota can mount anything resembling a defense based on the way they have played the second half of the season.

Green Bay has allowed an average of 29 points a game in the last 3 and 25 in their last 6.

Minnesota has allowed an average of 26 points a game in the last 3 and 24.5 in their last 6.

When they last met the total was 65 with the Packers edging to the victory on Ryan Longwell's 33 yarder in the waining seconds of the game. But one must remember that game was played sans the Vikings star, wide receiver Randy Moss.

The Packer's are going into this game without a key situational receiver in Robert Ferguson. This is going to put a little more pressure on Antonio Chatman. The good news is that Chatman does have good hands and is a solid route runner, if maybe a bit to the small side. Let us not forget that the #2 Ranked WR, Javon Walker, will be a nice offset to the Vikings Randy Moss.

Najeh Davenport is still bothered with his ribs, but Ahman Green appears to be well healed, having gained 94 yards on 15 carries against the stout rushing D of Jacksonville.

Green Bay's defense is much as it has been for the better part of the season, in disarray and banged up. Grady Jackson is probable, but the bigger problem there is that his sub, James Lee, is out because of his knee. This means that Larry Smith will play sub for Jackson. There is also the fact that Jackson could go down altogether which would put the spotlight on Smith. Then we have the rest of the line. Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila has a sprained neck but is probable. KGB's numbers have been so hot and cold this season however, that who shows up is listed as questionable. Na'il Diggs is questionable and is rostered as back-up to Paris Lenon, who has been the starter at LB the last 2 games. Then you have the whole secondary fiasco.

There is real talent there in Sharper, Roman, Hawthorne and of course Al Harris yet something just doesn't gel. These guys should not be getting burned as often as they seem to be. Laying it off on coaching or the enforcement of the contact rule could allow for some leniency, except other CB's with less raw talent are doing a better job. You can excuse Ahmad Carroll for giving up a couple big plays, you can't with the vets. The veterans ought to know better and be quicker to read the routes and make adjustments to keep receivers from getting behind them so often. They should not be getting the amount of penalties that they are. In point of fact the secondary is not fundamentally sound, not by a long shot.

A statement made by Sharper probably sums it up best. When asked what the Packer's defensive style was he replied, “I don't know, I don't even know”.

Minnesota is going to be at home with their full compliment of receivers alive and well. Randy Moss, for all intents and purposes, appears to have most, if not all, of his speed back. Even having 90% Moss is going to be a handful for Al Harris. Nate Burleson stepped up big time when Moss first went down and has now made a solid name for himself. He's grabbed six in the endzone since then, one in each game that Moss was sidelined and 2 last week against Detroit. There's also Marcus Robinson, who's no slouch with his 603 yards and 7 TD's.

When TE Jimmy Kleinsasser went out early in the season their was serious concern about the position. Those concerns have long since been set aside as Jermaine Wiggins has filled the gap very nicely. He's in the top 10 amongst his peers and has 4 touchdowns to his credit, putting him tied for 3rd overall in that stat. Not counting Gates because he's a freak of nature with almost 1000 yards receiving and 12 TD's. Those aren't tight end numbers, those are WR numbers and damned good ones at that.

Onterrio Smith is ailing with the flu, but Michael Bennett was slated to start against the Packer's anyway. Smith should be available for situational play and may do a little kick returning. Although center Cory Withrow, has been pretty good at filling in for Matt Birk, having allowed only 2 sacks in his 4 starts, the Vikings have got to be pleased that Birk stands a good chance of starting.

So the ramblings still leaves the ultimate question unanswered. Is this game worth action?

Both teams are vying for the NFC North Division Title.

Green Bay is already guaranteed a playoff berth, but would clinching the Division Title with a victory in the Dome has got to sound very sweet to the players. There's even more to the story than that. A win would give them Home Field advantage in the post season opener and with the injury to the Eagles Terrell Owens, the NFC is wide open in the postseason. None of that changes what's at stake for Minnesota however.

If the Vikings win they will be in the drivers seat in the North and be playoff bound. But, if they lose all is still not lost. They would only miss post season play if the Panthers and the Rams win both of their remaining games and Seattle wins one of theirs. That's assuming they lose to the Packers as well as the Redskins, leaving them 8-8. Obviously a victory in either game will clinch a berth.

In this gamblers view the Packers really have more at stake and more motivation to win. It will establish them as a solid contender in the NFC, give them at least one more game in front of their fans and a great start to the playoffs.


My Online Betting Action: The Packers +3 &
The Over 55.5 Did not get bet in on time, Over/Under had gone to 57.5


Recent Trends
•Over is 8-0 in the last eight meetings.
•Over is 12-4 in GB's last 16 vs. Division opponents.
•GB have lost the last three ATS played in Dec.
•MIN is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
•Under is 5-2 in MIN's last seven played in Dec.
•MIN is 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.

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