These are the games that seem to have the most Wagering Value.
The Cincinnati Bengals (7-8) at The Philadelphia Eagles (13-2)
Against the Spread: Bengals 6-8-1 | Eagles 9-6-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Bengals -3 -101 Over/Under 41u +103
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bengals -3.5 -105 to -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bengals -3 -130
Over/Under 39u to 40.5u +105 to -110
I think the same applies to the St. Louis game. Value based on who won't be playing and Lewis wanting to go 8-8.
Recent Trends
•CIN is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
•Over is 4-1 in CIN last five overall.
•CIN is 3-0 ATS in their last three road games.
•Under is 11-3 in the Eagles last 14 overall.
•PHI is 0-3 ATS in their last three overall.
•PHI is 0-3 ATS in their last three games in Jan.
So here's the skinny. The Bengals need a 8-8 finish more than the Eagles need a win. Unfortunately QB Carson Palmer is slated as no. 2, which mean that Jon Kitna will probably start. Palmer may see some playing time in the second half, according to Head Coach Marvin Lewis. That remains to be seen. He did some practice drills with the first team but did not complete th 11-on-11 session. T Willie Anderson is listed as Probable but by all rights is good to go.
Expecting Lewis to put a team on the field with anything else but a win in mind seems unlikely. A .500 finish at least keeps up with last seasons numbers, a back-step could mean Bengals Pres, Mike Brown, getting more involved again. Something that no one in the locker room wants, least of all Lewis.
The Eagles are in much the same game mode as they were against St. Louis. Although the starters may see even less time on the field. RB Brian Westbrook is inactive, as is DE Jevon Kearse and OT Tra Thomas. QB Donovan McNabb will probably not play at all, Reid opting to be extra careful and split time between Koy Detmer (he looks like Martin Grammatica) and Jeff Blake. Others that may very well be missing from the line-up entire could be WR's Todd Pinkston and Freddie Mitchell, FS Brian Dawkins, ML Jeremiah Trotter and CB Lito Sheppard.
Bottom line is Andy Reid is playing for the ring and is going to protect those precious commodities that give him the best shout at it.
My Online Betting Action: The Bengals -2.5
Got Wager in before line change, it's now -3.5, but is still worthy a small to medium bet.
The Cleveland Browns (3-12) at The Houston Texans (7-8)
Against the Spread: Browns 5-10-0 | Texans 9-6-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Texans -10.5 -102 Over/Under 39u -102
Current High NFL Betting Line: Texans -10 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Texans -8.5 -110
Over/Under 39u -110
Texans, Maybe? -9.5 is a lot considering how streaky they are. Just the same this game may have value, Dom needs a .500 finish.
The Browns are backpedaling about as fast as a team can. They are on a 9 game losing streak that probably won't end in Texas. They have allowed an average of 33.6 points a game in their last 5 overall and have manage just 15.4 a game. QB Luke McCown numbers have been dismal at best and it's looks as though he will be the starter, as Holcomb is listed as questionable with his rib injury. RB Lee Suggs is in good shape as is William Green. But Cleveland needs to be in charge of the game for those guys to play a real role. That assumes an early lead for the Browns, something that just doesn't happen all that often.
The Browns do have a decent passing D (7th), but it is offset by the awful rushing D (31st), that means that the Texans RB, Domanick Davis, should be able to exploit that area.
Speaking of Defenses, Houston doesn't really have a great on at 29th overall, but they score points when they get turnovers. 12 points on 20 picks (tied for 3rd in the league in INT's) and 30 points on 10 forced fumbles. Compared to a total of 12 points scored defensively by the Browns, those look like stellar numbers.
The Texans offense, led by QB David Carr and RB Domanick Davis, has the talent to do very well and has been somewhat productive, although streaky, over the last 5 weeks. They have scored an average just under the 20 point mark while allowing about 15 a game. They have had to play tougher competition however. When you look at the games against sub .500 teams the margin of victory is 14.5 points. That's not counting the shut-out 21-0 win over then 8-6 Jacksonville Jaguars.
So the question really becomes one of can they win by that big a margin. If Cleveland had a better than 0-7 road record then you would question it with the Texans 3-4 home record.
Looking elsewhere, in Conference games the Texans are 6-5 while the Browns are 2-9. In Divisional Games Houston is 4-2 versus Cleveland's 2-4 record.
So with all these numbers in mind, the Texans get the win. As for covering 9 points, looking at how they have done recently against sub par teams it goes for Houston as well.
My Online Betting Action: The Texans -9
Recent Trends
•CLE is 1-7 ATS in their last eight overall.
•Over is 4-1 in the Browns last five on the road.
•Over is 2-0 in CLE previous two games in Jan.
•HOU is 5-1 ATS in their last six overall.
•Under is 7-2-1 in HOU last 10 overall.
•HOU is 8-4 ATS in their last 12 on grass.
The Minnesota Vikings (8-7) at The Washington Redskins (5-10)
Against the Spread: Vikings 7-8-0 | Redskins 5-10-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Vikings -4 -108 Over/Under 41u -109
Current High NFL Betting Line: Vikings -4 -105 to -113
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Vikings -3.5 -110
Over/Under 40.5u to 41u -105 to -110
Minnesota clinches NFC playoff berth with win. The Redskins are in re-coupe mode. Minnesota is a wager, size yet undetermined.
The Vikings are in a must win game to assure themselves of a Wild Card playoff berth. If the numbers are correct they still have a shot if everything plays out perfectly with a loss, but I'm quite sure that Head Coach Mike Tice doesn't want his fate in the hands of other teams.
Minnesota has all the weapons on offense that you could ask for. QB Daunte Culpepper is well over 4000 yards, with 37 TD's to his 11 INT's. WR Randy Moss is a constant bother for defenses and the forced coverage to keep him at bay has allowed Nate Burleson, and Marcus Robinson to see a good chunk of passes thrown their way. The Four Headed running back beast has been sufficient with Michael Bennett, Mewelde Moore, Onterrio Smith and Moe Williams.
The Vikings don't have much of a defense, but then again Washington doesn't have much of an offense. Those numbers become pretty much a wash.
Joe Gibbs would like nothing more than the end the season on a high note, and he does have the defense to do it.
Giving up only 16.5 points a game puts them in the top 5 overall in Pts. Against. They are not scoring D however, producing just 12 points on 18 INT's and 12 forced fumbles. That defense is going to be hampered a bit with the loss of CB Fred Smoot who will not be playing, out with a kidney injury. How they are going to move things around in the secondary is anyones guess. You will probably see Walt Harris lined up on the right side opposite Bruleson/Robinson which is should be a favorable match-up for the Vikings. Rookie CB Garnell Wilds will be back-up to Harris, again advantage Minnesota.
The Redskins offense is still makeshift at best. QB Patrick Ramsey will start and by all appearances, RB Ladell Betts will get his first start of the season with Clinton Portis placed on IR. The WR's spots are healthy, but Ramsey has to have time to through the ball for them to come into play. Considering that he has been sacked 14 times since being back as the starter, let's you know that he is not getting the protection up front that he needs.
Considering what's a stake for the Vikings and the low line based on what had been a ball control offense and solid secondary of the Redskins, the Vikings seem to be a good Value Wager this week.
My Online Betting Action: The Vikings -3.5
Recent Trends
•Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
•MIN is 1-5 ATS in their last six overall.
•Over is 5-1 in MIN last six road games.
•Under is 14-5 in WAS last 19 overall.
•WAS is 4-1 ATS in their last five overall.
•WAS is 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings.
The Atlanta Falcons (11-4) at The Seattle Seahawks (8-7)
Against the Spread: Falcons 6-8-1 | Seahawks 5-10-0
Game Time: 4:05 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Seahawks -5.5 -105 Over/Under 42.5u +101
Current High NFL Betting Line: Seahawks -6.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Seahawks -6 -105 to 110
Over/Under 42u to 42.5u -103 to -110
No Vick + Atlanta set for playoffs = no offense. Medium sized wager on Seattle -5.5.
The above appeared true until news late this week came out rumoring that QB Michael Vick may play. Both Vick and Mora are hush hush about it, but even if he does play it will be more in the passing capacity than using his legs. That means the TE Alge Crumpler out of the line up is going to be more of a factor. The reality is that if Vick isn't running the ball the offense just doesn't get much done.
On the other side of the ball, the Falcons may see CB Jason Webster back in the starting position. He will be amongst facing off at least some of the time against WR Darrell Jackson on the right side. This will be interesting to watch as Webster has not seen action in over a month and Jackson is a crafty route runner. CB Kevin Mathis has been upgraded to probable and will probably start. If he does, it will be on the right side and they will shift Webster over to the left, assuming he starts as well. It's a mess in the secondary know matter how you look at it. With CB's switching sides and question marks to boot.
Seattle can get the no. 4 seed and play host to the No. 5 seed (either Minnesota, Carolina or St. Louis) on Wild Card weekend. But they have at least clinched a playoff berth. The Division Title and being at home is what they seek now and that's pretty good motivation.
Up front on O, the Seahawks w/ FB Mack Strong back, should be able to
win the battle and allow for RB Shaun Alexander to do what he does best, score, yeah he runs too. Depending on whether or not Atlanta goes with their base personal this could be made a little easier with nickel and dime S Aaron Beasley playing more than usual, in which case it will be SS Bryan Scott sneaking up for the rush coverage instead of FS Cory Hall.
Seattle's lack-luster win last at home against Arizona should have lit a fire under this teams ***. If they have any hopes of going past the first round of the playoffs they need to get the momentum going now. With Atlanta already locked in place for their post season play, this looks like the Seahawks last chance to do that.
My Online Betting Action: The Seahawks -5.5
Recent Trends
•ATL is 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings in SEA.
•Under is 10-3 in ATL last 13 overall.
•ATL is 2-5 ATS in their last seven games in Jan.
•SEA is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 overall.
•Over is 10-2 in SEA last 12 overall.
•Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
That's it for the games that I think have solid Value. Will have the “Questionable” match-ups posted shortly.
P.S. Apologies in advance for any blatant mistakes, typed this one out from notes in a hurry, so...
Time for a little Rose Bowl
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