NFL Online Betting Against the Spread Picks Week 5

I'm going to mix things up this week. Rather than my usual lengthy analysis of every game, I'm going to stick to the ones that look like they have Gambling appeal.

The Cleveland Browns (2-2) at The Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1)
Opening NFL Betting Line Steelers -6 -105 Over/Under 38 -105
Current High NFL Betting Line Steelers -7 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line Steelers -6 -110
Over/Under 37 -104 to -110

Veteran Vs. Rookie. Browns pit rookie QB Ben Roethlisberger against seasoned veteran QB Jeff (I squeak when I talk) Garcia. The Browns' need this win to keep pace in the AFC North. The question is, do they have the manpower to do it? This is not the same relatively healthy team that came up big against the Baltimore Ravens in week 1. Garcia is not without skill but he isn't a stud with ¾ touchdown to interception ratio, a passer rating of 67.9 and a completion percentage just north of 50. Although Garcia does a good job spreading the ball around, he doesn't get enough time to do it. He's been sacked 10 times, 7 of those coming in the last two games. The injury riddled offensive line of the Browns' has just not gotten the job done. The shinning light is the tandem running backs, William Green and the emerging Lee Suggs. But can they alone make the difference in this game? I don't think so.

The Steelers have some skill. Wide receiver Hines Ward will play and we all know what he can do. Add WR Plaxico Burress and to a lesser degree Antwaan Randle El into the fray and you have a solid receiving core. Rookie QB Ben Roethlisberger has shown that he has the ability to get the job done. He has a none too shabby passer rating of 86.2 and a completion percentage right around the 61 mark. But the big difference here is DEFENSE. The Steelers' thus far have allowed an average of only 254 yards a game while the Browns give up nearly 350. While they may be evenly match, more or less, on the ground each giving up around a 100 yards a game it's the air attack that seems to really favor the Steelers. The Browns give up an average of 236 yds per game and they have not played against a team with what anyone would consider a passing juggernaut. Then you have the ground game, Duce Staley will most likely start, Jerome Bettis will get his goal line carries and Verron Haynes will be used effectively in 3rd and short situations.

My Online Betting: Steelers -6
Possible bet: Under 37


The Minnesota Vikings (2-1) at The Houston Texans (2-2)
Opening NFL Betting Line Vikings -3.5 -108 Over/Under 49.5 -105
Current High NFL Betting Line Vikings -4.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line Vikings -4 -110
Over/Under 49.5 -110

Here are two lack luster defenses against one great offense in the Minnesota Vikings and an up and coming offense in the Houston Texans. In week three I correctly put money on the Texans. Then I left them alone against Oakland assuming that the KC game was, although predictable, not going to be the norm for Houston. The Vikings, on the other hand, have had my action one way or the other all season and they have not disappointed me with the exception of their play against the Bears. There is no need in going into any lengthy commentary about the Vikings offense, it's just too obvious. But there are a couple points that are worth mentioning. Running back Onterrio Smith starts his four game substance abuse suspension this week. So with Bennett out, this means that rookie HB Mewelde Moore will probably start, Larry Ned will get some carries and the injured (calf) Moe Williams will be getting some situational playing time. The other factors are, WR Randy Moss is not 100% and the TE position is anyones guess with Jermaine Wiggins' continued sideline stay. How much will this effect the Vikings? Maybe not quite as much as one might surmise.

The Houston Texans have surprised me. RB Domanick Davis is going to play, sharing touches with Jonathan Wells and Tony Hollings. QB David Carr took normal reps on Friday and will be fine tomorrow. Wide receiver Andre Johnson's numbers keep getting better, breaking the 100yd. receiving mark last week. Even though WR Corey Bradford will sit out Jabar Gaffney will step in as the number 2 wide-out with something to prove. The Texans can get the job done on the ground as well as in the air averaging 115 and 236 yards a game respectively. Is it enough to win or even keep the game within a field goal? That's a much tougher call. The Texans D is going to have there hands full there is no doubt about it but coach Dom Capers has discovered the Blitz, and it's effectiveness. Despite my better judgment my instinct tells me that the Texans come up with a win.

My Online Betting: Texans +4 (small bet)

The Oakland Raiders (2-2) at The Indianapolis Colts (3-1)
Opening NFL Betting Line Colts -9 EVEN Over/Under 52.5 -105
Current High NFL Betting Line Colts -10 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line Colts -9 -110

The Raiders are getting worse as the season progresses. Their offensive line all but completely broke down against the Texans last week. QB Kerry Collins had a dismal outing forcing the ball and being the center of their woes with 5 turnovers. Running back Tyrone Wheatley is out, and Justin Fargas is bothered by the infamous “turf toe” yet coach Norv Turner has not sidelined him. He will be a “game time” decision but the RCA Dome turf doesn't bode well for him even if he does get playing time. Sounds to me like Amos Zereoue is there best chance of moving the ball on the ground. If they can't get something going on the ground just for the sake of time of possession, it's going to be even uglier than I expect.

The Colts are Rockin' and Rollin' their only defeat coming at the hands of the mighty New England Patriots and only by a field goal. Since then they have laid waste to those that have had to do battle with them. Beating their opposition by an average of almost 12 points. The Jacksonville game being the closest margin of only 7. They may not have the statistical numbers that they would like on the defensive side of the ball, but then again they haven't for the last three years. Plus they aren't facing a team that really worries me. As for the offense, what the hell do I need to say. It's star studded! The weakest link (if you could really call it that) is at running back and I'm not ready to count The Edge, Edgerrin James, out yet. He's been beaten up to be sure, but the man still has some moves left. The Colts will come out firing and I just don't see what the Raiders are going to be able to do to stop it.

My Online Betting: Colts -9

Have to go do “the life” thing for a bit. I'll have a couple more games later this evening. So thanks for dropping by, try not to laugh at me too much.