Saturday, November 27, 2004

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Week 12 Picks of the Week

Early Games

The Baltimore Ravens (7-3) at The New England Patriots (9-1)
Against the Spread: Ravens 8-2-0 | Patriots 7-1-2
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: Patriots -8 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Patriots -7 -108 to -115
Over/Under 35.5u -110

Even though Ray Lewis started the season a little off kilter, he has pounded his way back into the leadership role. With his 97 tackles, he leads not just with words but by example and his comrades have followed. The Baltimore Ravens have one of the most points producing defenses in the NFL. They have manged to convert 4 of their 14 interceptions into 24 points and have gained another 30 points on 9 forced fumbles. It's a good thing too, because they are certainly not a powerhouse offense.

The Raven's QB, Kyle Boller, had to remind his teammates at half-time last week that there still was hope. This was after they were held scoreless by the very mediocre defense of the Cowboys. Their already anemic offense is going to be without RB Jamal Lewis. Considering that he accounts for 1/3 of Baltimore's 15 offensive touchdowns, this is an injury that they can ill afford. Boller has 7 int's to go with his 9 passing touchdowns and his entire receiving group comes in with only 5 scores to their credit. Those numbers don't exactly put the fear of God in opponents hearts.

The New England Patriots, by contrast, got a boost to their offense with the return of WR Deion Branch. With his return they have gained yet another fantastic route runner with extremely good hands and reliability. QB Tom Brady couldn't be happier, as he now has what is arguably the best receiving corps in the league today. Their biggest problem in that area is who to name as the #1 wide-out. New England's RB, Corey Dillon, has proven to be everything they were hoping for, and then some. And if that wasn't enough they have the coaching prowess of Bill Belichick to get them out of some tough spots with losses on the defensive side of the ball.

The Patriots lost CB Ty Law in the opening moments of their single loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. This was just one game removed from losing his counter part Tyrone Poole. Belichick, undaunted, began studying even more than his norm and with the help defensive coordinator, Romeo Crennel, devised schemes to disguise the weakness that they have in the secondary. To date it has done very well. Despite the missing starters, New England has allowed an average of only 17 points a game and has 13 picks. This with a rookie free agent and nickel and dime (no pun intended) backs rotating in as starters and using a WR, Troy Brown, for nickel and dime situations (again no pun intended). With Asante Samuel and Randall Gay both banged up Belichick is going to have to work a little more of his voodoo this week to keep the secondary looking like a secondary.

My Online Betting Action: The Patriots -7

That's it until Mondays game, but I'll give you a hint... Say Cheese!

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