NFL Pick of the Week Against the Spread Week 10

So what exactly happened early Sunday? Did the football Gods decide that the salary cap and all that it brings just wasn't fun anymore?

Maybe Vince Lombardi decided that enough was enough, time to teach these owners a lesson. You know the lesson... Parity Sucks!

--Rant On

Is it just me, or are there others out there that miss having teams you could count on to win, teams you could count on to lose, and those in the middle that were the “spoilers”.

Back in the day, when going to the local casino to lay a bet on something was about as common as going to McDonald's, by week 5 or 6 you knew what were correct lines (give or take). If you followed the game astutely going 54%-56% was not that tall an order. The 60%+ mark was what everyone was aiming at. Those were the Frank “Lefty” Rosenthal numbers.

Last year, it took until week 8 to begin to get a handle on what were good lines and what were purely “public perception” lines. This year looks like it is going to be play-offs before we reach that point.

Are the bookies really privy to information that the average Joe, no matter how diligent, can never hope to find? Or did the Sportsbooks just get really frigging lucky this week. Maybe they didn't, maybe they got killed by money line bets on the dogs that won. Chicago was +330 on the money line!

There is the running belief that there are a few (Over/Under at 10) extremely high rollers that cause the pendulum swing that is the line change. Even taking that as fact, the lines didn't change that drastically from their opening to closing. Even if they had, it wouldn't have made any difference to many of the games because the favored team lost.

Let's take a closer look at what occurred this past Sunday:

Miami Dolphins -3.5 at home – Failed to cover, lost to the Arizona Cardinals
Dallas Cowboys -1 – Failed to cover, lost to the Cincinnati Bengals.
Kansas City Chiefs -3 – Failed to cover, lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
N.Y. Jets -3 – Failed to cover, lost to the Buffalo Bills.
Carolina Panthers -7 at home – Failed to cover, lost to the Oakland Raiders.
Philadelphia Eagles -1 – Failed to cover, lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Detroit Lions -3.5 at home – Failed to cover, lost to the Washington Redskins.
N.Y. Giants -9 at home – Failed to cover, lost to the Chicago Bears.
Indianapolis Colts -7 at home – Failed to cover.

So in nine of the fourteen games played this past week only five favorites covered the spread, counting the Eagles and Cowboys since the books were split about 50/50 between pick-em and -1. As if that weren't bad enough, 8 of the 9 lost outright.

These were not all tight games either, -3 or less. Take the Panthers or Giants games, both were favored by a touchdown or better at home and they didn't just fail to cover, they LOST!

In any event, every contrarian who also takes part in online (or b&m) sports handicapping had a fantastic weekend.

--Rant Off

This weeks opening lines (for whatever they are worth) will be up shortly.

Thanks for stopping by my little blip on the blog radar...