Peter King, the monday morning QB over at Sports Illustrated put up his pre-season 2005 picks. Let's see what we have here:

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I'm not switching my spring predictions very much. I'm still picking New England to beat Minnesota in Super Bowl Extra Large (XL, get it?) in February.

There is a science, a slight science, to my picks. Every year, there's a couple of stunners. Look back and see:

• 2000: Giants and Ravens, a combined 15-17 and playoff-less in 1999, go 24-8 and meet in the Super Bowl.

• 2001: Pats and Bears come from nowhere to play home playoff games.

• 2002: Jon Gruden resuscitates Bucs. Bears crash to earth.

• 2003: Raiders divebomb from 11 wins to four. Carolina, winners of eight games in the previous two years, win 11.

• 2004: Steelers go from 6-12 to 15-1, Chargers from 4-12 to 12-4. With that in mind, here's how I see the order in every division.

AFC East: New England, Buffalo, New York Jets, Miami. I'm tired of picking against a coach as smart and thorough as Bill Belichick with players as mistake-free as New England's. I like Buffalo's defense. The Jets are the best team in football I pick to not make the playoffs, but I think the Bills' running game and defense will trump them. Miami will struggle horribly on offense.

AFC North: Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Cleveland. I believe the Steelers' running game will still be good, whatever the fate of Jerome Bettis and Duce Staley. Baltimore's stalwarts are aging; can they be really good for 16 games? I have my doubts. Cleveland is going to have another depressing season.

AFC South: Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Tennessee, Houston. The Jags morph into this era's no-name defense. The Colts are still really good. Tennessee edges Houston because of one reason: a healthy Steve McNair versus David Carr.

AFC West: San Diego, Kansas City, Denver, Oakland. The Chargers start to build New England-type depth. Kansas City improves markedly on defense, but not enough to beat the Schottenheimers. Denver tires of Jake Plummer's streakiness. Oakland plays a dozen 38-31 games, losing eight.

Wild cards: Buffalo, Indianapolis.

AFC Championship, at Foxboro: New England 30, San Diego 13.

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NFC East: Philadelphia, Dallas, New York Giants, Washington. The Eagles have to be the deepest team of our time, though a quarterback injury would be a killer. Drew Bledsoe's going to be better than people think -- good enough to get the Cowboys to the playoffs. The Giants could win anywhere between four and nine, depending on Eli Manning; I'll give them seven. Washington will play Jason Campbell at quarterback by Halloween. He's Joe Gibbs' guy.

NFC North: Minnesota, Green Bay, Chicago, Detroit. The Vikings play as well on offense as when Randy Moss roamed the tundra, and they're better on defense with Fred Smoot covering everything that moves. I don't trust Green Bay's defense, period. I like the Bears' D a lot, so much that Chicago could pass Green Bay if Kyle Orton is competent. Detroit will be the best last-place team in football, but that won't count for much when Steve Mariucci is being judged after the season.

NFC South: Carolina, Atlanta, New Orleans, Tampa Bay. I buy the hype on Carolina. Love 'em a lot, though they'll be physically beaten by the six rugged division games. The Falcons will have to play great to match what they did last year, but I need to see an improved passing game to vault them over Carolina. Poor New Orleans. And poor Saints. How can you be great as itinerants? Jon Gruden's going to blow several gaskets this year. His defense, not the offense, will fail him.

NFC West: St. Louis, Seattle, Arizona, San Francisco. The Rams will be as good offensively as they were four years ago. Seattle has its moment of truth with Matt Hasselbeck this year, and it may not be pretty. Arizona might have had the most discouraging offensive preseason of any team in football. I don't think that should be a gigantic factor because the preseason isn't important, but it means something if your offense was pitiful to begin with. The 49ers have two years of rebuilding to go.

Wild cards: Dallas, Atlanta

NFC Championship, at Minneapolis: Minnesota 20, Philadelphia 17

Super Bowl XL, at Detroit: New England 31, Minnesota 15

I can't pick against the Pats. I think they're still hungry or at least motivated to do the little things they have to do to win. They can't afford an injury to Corey Dillon or Brady, and they will miss the leadership and underrated playmaking ability of Bruschi. But what this team does, which is the envy of every NFL team, is play efficiently and wait for the opposition to beat itself. And that's what usually happens. When they struggle, Bill Belichick is not afraid to fire people if that's what he has to do; he did it last year with special-teamer Shawn Mayer after a two-touchdown win at Buffalo. The kicking teams played poorly, and Mayer, a key cog on special teams, got whacked, sending shivers through the locker room. The message: You'll get cut if Beliichick is unhappy with your play, even if we're on an 18-game winning streak -- which they were at the time.

I also have faith the coaches, even without last year's coordinators, will figure it out. Belichick's a nut for continuing education. Last year he spent a day at the Naval Academy -- the Naval Academy, for crying out loud -- studying the running game. He was impressed that a team that was often outmanned physically could run the ball so well. He spent a couple of days with then LSU coach Nick Saban swapping defensive stratagems. This year, he spent an hour or so on the spread offense with Urban Meyer at Florida. The point: When Belichick was a coaching novice, he picked the brains of smart coaches around him. Now that he's won three Super Bowls, why would he change his modus operandi?

The Vikes? Pretty simple. I think they've done enough on defense to win, finally. I think they'll go 5-1 in their division, 3-1 against non-conference AFC North foes and win home-field through the NFC playoffs. That will enough to beat the Eagles and Panthers.

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Now I'm gonna sit and read this a few times before I offer up any rebuttals. Lord knows it sure looks easy to pick em on paper, ain't it?