NFL Against the Spread – Picks of the Week Saturday – Part 2


Saturday Wild Card Late Game
Early Game


The New York Jets (10-6) at The San Diego Chargers (12-4)
Against the Spread:  Jets 8-7-1 | Chargers 13-1-2 (Wow!)
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Chargers -6.5 -115 Over/Under 44u -111
Current High NFL Betting Line: Chargers -7.5 +115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Chargers -6.5 -109 to -125
Over/Under 41.5u to 42u EVEN to -115 <--- Weather related.
Jets on a two game losing skid, Chargers losing only 1 of their last 10 and at home... Liking the Charger's in this match-up.

Going against the Jets as underdogs seems a bad proposal what with Martin and Jordan pounding the ball against you. But SD has a good run stopping game, albeit maybe not as tested as it will be against that tandem.

The real reason that I like the Charger's is three fold. They are good at home, they have the best ATS in the NFL and they have not been in the playoffs in a long time. There is also, LT, Antonio Gates and contract year QB, Drew Brees.

The Jets have not played well. It's not a perception it's a fact. They have failed to maintain games that they should have won. Their defense is allowing too many second half points, and the coaching system is not allowing for that lost ground.

The Chargers give up a couple more points a game defensively than the Jets do. However, offensively they outscore NY by better than 7. That and the fact that the Chargers play 4 quarters of good ball is a part of the reason behind a Charger's wager. More on this later.

The injury to Pennington's rotator cuff has limited his ability to throw down field and has clearly hurt his accuracy. The result has been a dependence on their running game and short-range passes.

This plays right into the strengths of the Chargers defense. Primarily the linebackers. Donnie Edwards, perhaps this season’s greatest Pro Bowl snub, has a knack for momentum-changing plays and is strong against the run and the pass. Wade Phillips’ has become a force in the 3-4 defense, registering 10 sacks this year after having only 10.5 in his entire career.

Bottom line, after adjusting for strength of schedule (Jets play in a D first Div., SD in a O first Div.), the numbers are upside-down. The Jets have a weaker defense than the Chargers, and a slightly better offense. What makes this a more interesting fact is that while both offenses have slowed a bit, Jets' have slowed more. Defensively, both teams have stepped it up, but again the advantage lies with the Chargers.

My Online Betting Action: The Chargers -6.5