NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Picks of The Week 17

The Final Regular Season NFL Match-ups

Here are the games worth noting and possible Online Betting Action.

Main Picks

The Green Bay Packers (9-6) at The Chicago Bears (5-10)
Against the Spread:  Packers 6-9-0 | Bears 5-10-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Bears -3 -105 Over/Under 34u +101
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bears -3 -110 to -120
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bears -3 -110 to -120
Over/Under 34u to 35.5u +102 to -110
Another tricky one, GB has nothing to gain by winning. Chicago may play to win or play to evaluate.

Despite Green Bay's playoff status being unaffected by the outcome of this game there are a couple other things that give this game some Wagering Value.

The Packers have struggled recently to get off to early leads/starts. In the last four games Green Bay has not scored in the first quarter. This is an area that Mike Sherman wants to change prior to the beginning of the post season. So, unlike other teams that have their position all sewn up, the Packers are looking for a momentum swing before Wild Card Weekend. Since, in all likelihood, they will face off with Minnesota or Carolina they need to get that first quarter monkey off their collective backs. Even if a miracle happens and St. Louis ends up in the Wild Card game, they need to be able to score quickly so they can get a good running passing mix going to keep those offenses off the field.

The Packers are going to be without WR Robert Ferguson for their regular season finale. The good news is that Antonio Chatman did a fine job, stepping up to the plate when they needed him to for those critical 1st down catches. RB Najeh Davenport is listed as questionable, troubled with his shoulder injury. The fact that RB Ahman Green is still nursing his ribs gives them more incentive to get off to a quick lead. If they can accomplish that then they can use him sparingly, replacing him at some stage of the game with Tony Fisher.

There is also the great road record that the Packers have (5-2) that they would like to increase to 6-2, just one game under their best set in '72 (6-1). QB Brett Favre is well within making the 4000 yard and 30 touchdown milestone in the same season for a third time. There are other team and individual single-season Packers records that are within reach. The main point however, is getting the momentum going for the post season. Considering their road record, particularly against the Bears, Chicago seems to be the right place at the right to do just that.

The Bears are on a 3 game losing streak and with the exception of the Detroit loss, have been beaten by pretty wide margins. Going into all the troubles that Chicago has is like beating a dead horse, it's useless and kind of mean spirited.

Lovie Smith does have some bright spots for next season. They have a young and talented defense, that has lots of potential. If they can make a few off season moves and make a few good draft choices, they have something of a foundation to build from offensively. But none of this matters for this game.

My Online Betting Action: The Packers +3

Recent Trends
•GB is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.
•GB is 2-5 ATS in their last seven overall.
•Over is 9-2 in GB last 11 overall.
•CHI is 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games.
•Under is 5-0 in CHI last five overall.
•Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

The N.Y. Jets (10-5) at The St. Louis Rams (7-8)
Against the Spread:  Jets 8-6-1 | Rams 4-10-1
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Jets -3 +109 Over/Under 43u +109
Current High NFL Betting Line: Jets -3.5 -101 to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Jets -3 -110 to -125
Over/Under 43u to 43.5u -105 to -110
Both the teams are in a “must win” to see the post season. The Jets are in the drivers seat however, as they can seal their fate either way in this game.

Not going to go into a big description of this game nor all the numbers to substantiate the value in this game.

Both teams need this win, but the Jets know that they can clinch a berth if they win.

St. Louis needs the win as well, but their fate will still be in the hands of others.

The Jets will use both RB's Curtis Martin and LaMont Jordan to keep the Rams offense off the field as much as possible, and they will be pounding against a suspect rush defense. Plus they will get the opportunity to take shots down field against a relatively weak secondary that's not going to have FS Aeneas Williams.

Small wager.

My Online Betting Action: The Jets -3

Recent Trends
•Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
•Under is 5-1 in NYJ last six overall.
•Jets are 4-2 ATS in their last six overall.
•Rams are 2-7 ATS in their last nine overall.
•Under is 4-0 in STL last four overall.
•STL is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.

The Pittsburgh Steelers (14-1) at The Buffalo Bills (96)
Against the Spread:  Steelers 9-5-1 | Bills 11-4-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Bills -9 -110 Over/Under 34u +102
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bills -10 +105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bills -9 -108 to -110
Over/Under 34u -105 to -110
The Steelers gain nothing by a win, as everything is set for them. Bills win and have a shot, but that's a lot to cover against the D of the Steelers.

The Steelers will not be using the following key offensive players:
QB Ben Roethlisberger
RB Duce Staley
RB Jerome Bettis
That speaks Volumes, and relegates this to a pretty short write up.

Buffalo can clinch with a win and they are playing very good ball. They are decently healthy and as long as QB Drew Bledsoe decides to give away this one, a win should not be that unsurmountable a task.

So the real question here is, can they cover the spread?

It's the answer that brings this to the less value mark.

Maybe. That's the answer. The Steelers D is tough and that means that there is going to have to be more than just RB Willis McGahee and the running game to beat Pittsburgh by better than a touchdown. So we are back to looking at Bledsoe. His numbers have improved a bit lately and that is why this gets a small wager.

My Online Betting Action: The Bills -9

Recent Trends
•PIT is 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings.
•Under is 7-1 in PIT last eight overall.
•Over is 7-0 in PIT last seven games in Jan.
•BUF is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 overall.
•Over is 8-1 in BUF last nine overall.
•Under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings.

The San Fransisco 49ers (2-13) at The New England Patriots (13-2)
Against the Spread:  49ers 6-9-0 | Patriots 10-3-2
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Patriots -13.5 -104 Over/Under 37u -106
Current High NFL Betting Line: Patriots -15 +115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Patriots -13 -110
Over/Under 37u to 40u EVEN to -110
Pat's have nothing to gain with a win. 49ers couldn't beat OSU on a good day. But covering 2 TD's from back-ups...?

This would be a no brainer, class A wager if it weren't for the fact that Tom Brady along with several other starters will probably not see more than a half of playing time. Against the 49ers however, a lot of damage can be done in 30 minutes.

Medium Wager because San Fransisco is so out-matched.

My Online Betting Action: The Patriots -13

Recent Trends
•SF is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
•SF is 2-7 ATS in their last nine overall.
•Over is 7-2 in SF last nine overall.
•NE is 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 overall.
•NE is 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 games in Jan.
•Under is 3-1 in the last four meetings.

The Kansas City Chiefs (7-8) at The San Diego Chargers (11-4)
Against the Spread:  Chiefs 6-9-0 | Chargers 12-1-2 Best ATS in the League
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Chiefs -3 -108 Over/Under 54.5u -101
Current High NFL Betting Line: Chiefs -3.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Chiefs -3 -116 to -125
Over/Under 51.5u to 52u -110
Chargers are locked, taking the hard earned AFC West Title. Vermeil wants to end the season on a high note. Betting against a team with the best ATS is a hard call. Over maybe...?

Reason for a wager on this one is simple. The Chargers can score too.

Again no reason for a long description of the match-up.

KC wants to finish on a high note, getting it done is San Diego against the AFC West Title holders is not where you want to get your hopes up too high. That being said, they can score and quickly. Although Schottenheimer may not want the win bad enough to start Brees (although he hasn't ruled it out), he doesn't want to get blown out in their regular season finale in front of their fans.
Small Wager

My Online Betting Action: The Over 51.5

Recent Trends
•Over is 6-3 in the last nine meetings.
•Over is 8-2 in KC last 10 overall.
•Over is 13-4 in KC last 17 vs. AFC West.
•SD is 11-0-1 ATS in their last 12 overall.
•Over is 10-2 in SD last 12 home games.
•SD is 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings.

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Picks of The Week 17

The Final Regular Season NFL Match-ups

These are the games that seem to have the most Wagering Value.

The Cincinnati Bengals (7-8) at The Philadelphia Eagles (13-2)
Against the Spread:  Bengals 6-8-1 | Eagles 9-6-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Bengals -3 -101 Over/Under 41u +103
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bengals -3.5 -105 to -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bengals -3 -130
Over/Under 39u to 40.5u +105 to -110
I think the same applies to the St. Louis game. Value based on who won't be playing and Lewis wanting to go 8-8.

Recent Trends
•CIN is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
•Over is 4-1 in CIN last five overall.
•CIN is 3-0 ATS in their last three road games.
•Under is 11-3 in the Eagles last 14 overall.
•PHI is 0-3 ATS in their last three overall.
•PHI is 0-3 ATS in their last three games in Jan.

So here's the skinny. The Bengals need a 8-8 finish more than the Eagles need a win. Unfortunately QB Carson Palmer is slated as no. 2, which mean that Jon Kitna will probably start. Palmer may see some playing time in the second half, according to Head Coach Marvin Lewis. That remains to be seen. He did some practice drills with the first team but did not complete th 11-on-11 session. T Willie Anderson is listed as Probable but by all rights is good to go.

Expecting Lewis to put a team on the field with anything else but a win in mind seems unlikely. A .500 finish at least keeps up with last seasons numbers, a back-step could mean Bengals Pres, Mike Brown, getting more involved again. Something that no one in the locker room wants, least of all Lewis.

The Eagles are in much the same game mode as they were against St. Louis. Although the starters may see even less time on the field. RB Brian Westbrook is inactive, as is DE Jevon Kearse and OT Tra Thomas. QB Donovan McNabb will probably not play at all, Reid opting to be extra careful and split time between Koy Detmer (he looks like Martin Grammatica) and Jeff Blake. Others that may very well be missing from the line-up entire could be WR's Todd Pinkston and Freddie Mitchell, FS Brian Dawkins, ML Jeremiah Trotter and CB Lito Sheppard.

Bottom line is Andy Reid is playing for the ring and is going to protect those precious commodities that give him the best shout at it.

My Online Betting Action: The Bengals -2.5
Got Wager in before line change, it's now -3.5, but is still worthy a small to medium bet.

The Cleveland Browns (3-12) at The Houston Texans (7-8)
Against the Spread:  Browns 5-10-0 | Texans 9-6-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Texans -10.5 -102 Over/Under 39u -102
Current High NFL Betting Line: Texans -10 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Texans -8.5 -110
Over/Under 39u -110
Texans, Maybe? -9.5 is a lot considering how streaky they are. Just the same this game may have value, Dom needs a .500 finish.

The Browns are backpedaling about as fast as a team can. They are on a 9 game losing streak that probably won't end in Texas. They have allowed an average of 33.6 points a game in their last 5 overall and have manage just 15.4 a game. QB Luke McCown numbers have been dismal at best and it's looks as though he will be the starter, as Holcomb is listed as questionable with his rib injury. RB Lee Suggs is in good shape as is William Green. But Cleveland needs to be in charge of the game for those guys to play a real role. That assumes an early lead for the Browns, something that just doesn't happen all that often.

The Browns do have a decent passing D (7th), but it is offset by the awful rushing D (31st), that means that the Texans RB, Domanick Davis, should be able to exploit that area.

Speaking of Defenses, Houston doesn't really have a great on at 29th overall, but they score points when they get turnovers. 12 points on 20 picks (tied for 3rd in the league in INT's) and 30 points on 10 forced fumbles. Compared to a total of 12 points scored defensively by the Browns, those look like stellar numbers.

The Texans offense, led by QB David Carr and RB Domanick Davis, has the talent to do very well and has been somewhat productive, although streaky, over the last 5 weeks. They have scored an average just under the 20 point mark while allowing about 15 a game. They have had to play tougher competition however. When you look at the games against sub .500 teams the margin of victory is 14.5 points. That's not counting the shut-out 21-0 win over then 8-6 Jacksonville Jaguars.

So the question really becomes one of can they win by that big a margin. If Cleveland had a better than 0-7 road record then you would question it with the Texans 3-4 home record.

Looking elsewhere, in Conference games the Texans are 6-5 while the Browns are 2-9. In Divisional Games Houston is 4-2 versus Cleveland's 2-4 record.

So with all these numbers in mind, the Texans get the win. As for covering 9 points, looking at how they have done recently against sub par teams it goes for Houston as well.

My Online Betting Action: The Texans -9

Recent Trends
•CLE is 1-7 ATS in their last eight overall.
•Over is 4-1 in the Browns last five on the road.
•Over is 2-0 in CLE previous two games in Jan.
•HOU is 5-1 ATS in their last six overall.
•Under is 7-2-1 in HOU last 10 overall.
•HOU is 8-4 ATS in their last 12 on grass.

The Minnesota Vikings (8-7) at The Washington Redskins (5-10)
Against the Spread:  Vikings 7-8-0 | Redskins 5-10-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Vikings -4 -108 Over/Under 41u -109
Current High NFL Betting Line: Vikings -4 -105 to -113
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Vikings -3.5 -110
Over/Under 40.5u to 41u -105 to -110
Minnesota clinches NFC playoff berth with win. The Redskins are in re-coupe mode. Minnesota is a wager, size yet undetermined.

The Vikings are in a must win game to assure themselves of a Wild Card playoff berth. If the numbers are correct they still have a shot if everything plays out perfectly with a loss, but I'm quite sure that Head Coach Mike Tice doesn't want his fate in the hands of other teams.

Minnesota has all the weapons on offense that you could ask for. QB Daunte Culpepper is well over 4000 yards, with 37 TD's to his 11 INT's. WR Randy Moss is a constant bother for defenses and the forced coverage to keep him at bay has allowed Nate Burleson, and Marcus Robinson to see a good chunk of passes thrown their way. The Four Headed running back beast has been sufficient with Michael Bennett, Mewelde Moore, Onterrio Smith and Moe Williams.

The Vikings don't have much of a defense, but then again Washington doesn't have much of an offense. Those numbers become pretty much a wash.

Joe Gibbs would like nothing more than the end the season on a high note, and he does have the defense to do it.

Giving up only 16.5 points a game puts them in the top 5 overall in Pts. Against. They are not scoring D however, producing just 12 points on 18 INT's and 12 forced fumbles. That defense is going to be hampered a bit with the loss of CB Fred Smoot who will not be playing, out with a kidney injury. How they are going to move things around in the secondary is anyones guess. You will probably see Walt Harris lined up on the right side opposite Bruleson/Robinson which is should be a favorable match-up for the Vikings. Rookie CB Garnell Wilds will be back-up to Harris, again advantage Minnesota.

The Redskins offense is still makeshift at best. QB Patrick Ramsey will start and by all appearances, RB Ladell Betts will get his first start of the season with Clinton Portis placed on IR. The WR's spots are healthy, but Ramsey has to have time to through the ball for them to come into play. Considering that he has been sacked 14 times since being back as the starter, let's you know that he is not getting the protection up front that he needs.

Considering what's a stake for the Vikings and the low line based on what had been a ball control offense and solid secondary of the Redskins, the Vikings seem to be a good Value Wager this week.
My Online Betting Action: The Vikings -3.5

Recent Trends
•Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
•MIN is 1-5 ATS in their last six overall.
•Over is 5-1 in MIN last six road games.
•Under is 14-5 in WAS last 19 overall.
•WAS is 4-1 ATS in their last five overall.
•WAS is 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings.

The Atlanta Falcons (11-4) at The Seattle Seahawks (8-7)
Against the Spread:  Falcons 6-8-1 | Seahawks 5-10-0
Game Time: 4:05 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Seahawks -5.5 -105 Over/Under 42.5u +101
Current High NFL Betting Line: Seahawks -6.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Seahawks -6 -105 to 110
Over/Under 42u to 42.5u -103 to -110
No Vick + Atlanta set for playoffs = no offense. Medium sized wager on Seattle -5.5.

The above appeared true until news late this week came out rumoring that QB Michael Vick may play. Both Vick and Mora are hush hush about it, but even if he does play it will be more in the passing capacity than using his legs. That means the TE Alge Crumpler out of the line up is going to be more of a factor. The reality is that if Vick isn't running the ball the offense just doesn't get much done.

On the other side of the ball, the Falcons may see CB Jason Webster back in the starting position. He will be amongst facing off at least some of the time against WR Darrell Jackson on the right side. This will be interesting to watch as Webster has not seen action in over a month and Jackson is a crafty route runner. CB Kevin Mathis has been upgraded to probable and will probably start. If he does, it will be on the right side and they will shift Webster over to the left, assuming he starts as well. It's a mess in the secondary know matter how you look at it. With CB's switching sides and question marks to boot.

Seattle can get the no. 4 seed and play host to the No. 5 seed (either Minnesota, Carolina or St. Louis) on Wild Card weekend. But they have at least clinched a playoff berth. The Division Title and being at home is what they seek now and that's pretty good motivation.

Up front on O, the Seahawks w/ FB Mack Strong back, should be able to
win the battle and allow for RB Shaun Alexander to do what he does best, score, yeah he runs too. Depending on whether or not Atlanta goes with their base personal this could be made a little easier with nickel and dime S Aaron Beasley playing more than usual, in which case it will be SS Bryan Scott sneaking up for the rush coverage instead of FS Cory Hall.

Seattle's lack-luster win last at home against Arizona should have lit a fire under this teams ***. If they have any hopes of going past the first round of the playoffs they need to get the momentum going now. With Atlanta already locked in place for their post season play, this looks like the Seahawks last chance to do that.

My Online Betting Action: The Seahawks -5.5

Recent Trends
•ATL is 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings in SEA.
•Under is 10-3 in ATL last 13 overall.
•ATL is 2-5 ATS in their last seven games in Jan.
•SEA is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 overall.
•Over is 10-2 in SEA last 12 overall.
•Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

That's it for the games that I think have solid Value. Will have the “Questionable” match-ups posted shortly.

P.S. Apologies in advance for any blatant mistakes, typed this one out from notes in a hurry, so...

Time for a little Rose Bowl

NFL Pick of the Week Against the Spread - Betting Lines Week 17

The Final Regular Season NFL Match-ups

The Cincinnati Bengals (7-8) at The Philadelphia Eagles (13-2)
Against the Spread:  Bengals 6-8-1 | Eagles 9-6-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Bengals -3 -101 Over/Under 41u +103
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bengals -3 +105 to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bengals -2.5 -110
Over/Under 39u to 40.5u +105 to -110
I think the same applies to the St. Louis game. Value based on who won't be playing and Lewis wanting to go 8-8.

Recent Trends
•CIN is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
•Over is 4-1 in CIN last five overall.
•CIN is 3-0 ATS in their last three road games.
•Under is 11-3 in the Eagles last 14 overall.
•PHI is 0-3 ATS in their last three overall.
•PHI is 0-3 ATS in their last three games in Jan.

The Cleveland Browns (3-12) at The Houston Texans (7-8)
Against the Spread:  Browns 5-10-0 | Texans 9-6-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Texans -10.5 -102 Over/Under 39u -102
Current High NFL Betting Line: Texans -11 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Texans -9.5 -108 to -110
Over/Under 39u -110
Texans, Maybe? -9.5 is a lot considering how streaky they are. Just the same this game may have value, Dom needs a .500 finish.

Recent Trends
•CLE is 1-7 ATS in their last eight overall.
•Over is 4-1 in the Browns last five on the road.
•Over is 2-0 in CLE previous two games in Jan.
•HOU is 5-1 ATS in their last six overall.
•Under is 7-2-1 in HOU last 10 overall.
•HOU is 8-4 ATS in their last 12 on grass.

The Detroit Lions (6-9) at The Tennessee Titans (4-11)
Against the Spread:  Lions 8-7-0 | Titans 4-11-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Lions -3 -109 Over/Under 45u -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Lions -3 EVEN to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Lions -2.5 -115
Over/Under 44.5u to 46u -105 to -110
There may be value in Detroit, still crunching numbers.

Recent Trends
•DET is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
•DET is 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games.
•Under is 3-0 in DET last three games in Jan.
•TEN is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 overall.
•Over is 8-2 in TEN last 10 home games.
•Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.

The Green Bay Packers (9-6) at The Chicago Bears (5-10)
Against the Spread:  Packers 6-9-0 | Bears 5-10-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Bears -3 -105 Over/Under 34u +101
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bears -3 -110 to -120
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bears -3 -110 to -120
Over/Under 34u to 35.5u +102 to -110
Another tricky one, GB has nothing to gain by winning. Chicago may play to win or play to evaluate.

Recent Trends
•GB is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.
•GB is 2-5 ATS in their last seven overall.
•Over is 9-2 in GB last 11 overall.
•CHI is 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games.
•Under is 5-0 in CHI last five overall.
•Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

The Miami Dolphins (4-11) at The Baltimore Ravens (8-7)
Against the Spread:  Dolphins 6-9-0 | Ravens 9-6-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Ravens -10 +101 Over/Under 34.5u +101
Current High NFL Betting Line: Ravens -12.5 +105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Ravens -10 -110
Over/Under 33.5u to 34u -105 to -110
Baltimore still has a chance at post season. They have to win, but that's not enough. They also need 3 other teams to lose.

Recent Trends
•MIA is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
•Over is 8-2 in MIA last 10 overall.
•MIA is 3-0 ATS in their last three road games.
•BAL is 5-2 ATS in their last seven at home.
•Over is 10-3 in BAL last 13 home games.
•Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings.

The Minnesota Vikings (8-7) at The Washington Redskins (5-10)
Against the Spread:  Vikings 7-8-0 | Redskins 5-10-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Vikings -4 -108 Over/Under 41u -109
Current High NFL Betting Line: Vikings -4 +101 to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Vikings -3.5 -110
Over/Under 40.5u to 41u -105 to -110
Minnesota clinches NFC playoff berth with win. The Redskins are in re-coupe mode. Minnesota is a wager, size yet undetermined.

Recent Trends
•Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
•MIN is 1-5 ATS in their last six overall.
•Over is 5-1 in MIN last six road games.
•Under is 14-5 in WAS last 19 overall.
•WAS is 4-1 ATS in their last five overall.
•WAS is 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings.

The New Orleans Saints (7-8) at The Carolina Panthers (7-8)
Against the Spread:  Saints 7-8-0 | Panthers 59-5-1
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Panthers -8 -106 Over/Under46u -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Panthers -9 +105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Panthers -7.5 -110 to -120
Over/Under 45.5u to 46u -105 to -110
New Orleans is another must win. They are just too poorly coached to wager on them, even with those kind of points.

Recent Trends
•Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
•Under is 6-1 in NO last seven overall.
•Saints are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games.
•CAR is 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine overall.
•Over is 7-2 in CAR last nine overall.
•CAR is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.

The N.Y. Jets (10-5) at The St. Louis Rams (7-8)
Against the Spread:  Jets 8-6-1 | Rams 4-10-1
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Jets -3 +109 Over/Under 43u +109
Current High NFL Betting Line: Jets -3.5 -101 to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Jets -3 -110 to -125
Over/Under 43u to 43.5u -105 to -110
Both the teams are in a “must win” to see the post season. The Jets are in the drivers seat however, as they can seal their fate either way in this game.

Recent Trends
•Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
•Under is 5-1 in NYJ last six overall.
•Jets are 4-2 ATS in their last six overall.
•Rams are 2-7 ATS in their last nine overall.
•Under is 4-0 in STL last four overall.
•STL is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.

The Pittsburgh Steelers (14-1) at The Buffalo Bills (96)
Against the Spread:  Steelers 9-5-1 | Bills 11-4-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Bills -9 -110 Over/Under 34u +102
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bills -10 +105
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bills -9 -108 to -110
Over/Under 34u -105 to -110
The Steelers gain nothing by a win, as everything is set for them. Bills win and have a shot, but that's a lot to cover against the D of the Steelers.

Recent Trends
•PIT is 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings.
•Under is 7-1 in PIT last eight overall.
•Over is 7-0 in PIT last seven games in Jan.
•BUF is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 overall.
•Over is 8-1 in BUF last nine overall.
•Under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings.

The San Fransisco 49ers (2-13) at The New England Patriots (13-2)
Against the Spread:  49ers 6-9-0 | Patriots 10-3-2
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Patriots -13.5 -104 Over/Under 37u -106
Current High NFL Betting Line: Patriots -15 +115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Patriots -13.5 -110
Over/Under 37u to 40u EVEN to -110
Pat's have nothing to gain with a win. 49ers couldn't beat OSU on a good day. But covering 2 TD's from back-ups...?

Recent Trends
•SF is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
•SF is 2-7 ATS in their last nine overall.
•Over is 7-2 in SF last nine overall.
•NE is 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 overall.
•NE is 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 games in Jan.
•Under is 3-1 in the last four meetings.

The Atlanta Falcons (11-4) at The Seattle Seahawks (8-7)
Against the Spread:  Falcons 6-8-1 | Seahawks 5-10-0
Game Time: 4:05 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Seahawks -5.5 -105 Over/Under 42.5u +101
Current High NFL Betting Line: Seahawks -6 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Seahawks -5 -103
Over/Under 42u to 42.5u -103 to -110
No Vick + Atlanta set for playoffs = no offense. Medium sized wager on Seattle -5.5.

Recent Trends
•ATL is 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings in SEA.
•Under is 10-3 in ATL last 13 overall.
•ATL is 2-5 ATS in their last seven games in Jan.
•SEA is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 overall.
•Over is 10-2 in SEA last 12 overall.
•Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-10) at The Arizona Cardinals (5-10)
Against the Spread:  Buccaneers 5-8-2 | Cardinals 8-7-0
Game Time: 4:05 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Cardinals -3.5 +107 Over/Under 38u +101
Current High NFL Betting Line: Cardinals -3.5 +105 to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Cardinals -3 -110 to -125
Over/Under 37.5u to 38u +101 to -110
Nothing but pride riding on this game. Tampa is on a 3 game skid while Arizona looks tough.

Recent Trends
•TB is 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 road games.
•Under is 18-8 in TB last 26 overall.
•TB is 3-0 ATS in their last three games in Jan.
•ARI is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games.
•Over is 9-3 in ARI last 12 overall.
•Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.

The Indianapolis Colts (12-3) at The Denver Broncos (9-6)
Against the Spread:  Colts 9-5-1 | Broncos 5-7-3
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Broncos -9 -101 Over/Under 44.5u -112
Current High NFL Betting Line: Broncos -10 +120
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Broncos -8.5 -110
Over/Under 34u to 34.5u -110
Colts are locked at No. 3 seed with the AFC South Title. Denver can clinch with win, but wagering on that is a whole other matter. Denver's just too streaky to lay off those kind of points.

Recent Trends
•Indy is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
•IND is 5-2 ATS in their last seven overall.
•Over is 12-6 in IND last 18 overall.
•DEN is 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 home games.
•Over is 7-3-2 in DEN last 12 at home.
•DEN is 0-3 ATS in their last three games in Jan.

The Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7) at The Oakland Raiders (5-10)
Against the Spread:  Jaguars 9-6-0 | Raiders 6-9-0
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: OTB Over/Under OTB
Current High NFL Betting Line: OTB
Current Low NFL Betting Line: OTB
Over/Under OTB
IF one could place a bet online, Jag's still have a shot at the post-season with a win. So if you could bet with Mirage or Caesars at -1.5...

Recent Trends
•Under is 2-0 in the previous two meetings.
•Under is 17-5 in JAC last 22 overall.
•Over is 3-0 in JAC last three games in Jan.
•OAK is 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games.
•Over is 7-2 in OAK last nine overall.
•OAK is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in Jan.

The Kansas City Chiefs (7-8) at The San Diego Chargers (11-4)
Against the Spread:  Chiefs 6-9-0 | Chargers 12-1-2 Best ATS in the League
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Chiefs -3 -108 Over/Under 54.5u -101
Current High NFL Betting Line: Chiefs -3.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Chiefs -3 -116 to -125
Over/Under 53.5u to 54u EVEN to -110
Chargers are locked, taking the hard earned AFC West Title. Vermeil wants to end the season on a high note. Betting against a team with the best ATS is a hard call. Over maybe...?

Recent Trends
•Over is 6-3 in the last nine meetings.
•Over is 8-2 in KC last 10 overall.
•Over is 13-4 in KC last 17 vs. AFC West.
•SD is 11-0-1 ATS in their last 12 overall.
•Over is 10-2 in SD last 12 home games.
•SD is 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings.

The Dallas Cowboys (6-9) at The N.Y. Giants (5-10)
Against the Spread:  Cowboys 7-8-0 | Giants 7-8-0
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET ESPN Sunday Night Football
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Giants -3 +107 Over/Under 37.5u -111
Current High NFL Betting Line: Giants -3 EVEN to +110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Giants -2.5 -105 to -110
Over/Under 37.5u to 38u -110
Last game of the season for both teams. Giants lost a heart breaker to Cincinnati (sans Palmer) last week, while the Cowboys got a victory over the stout D of Washington. Finding value in this game is like trying to find a needle in a haystack.

Recent Trends
•DAL is 4-1 ATS in their last five overall.
•Under is 4-1 in DAL last five overall.
•DAL is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games in Jan.
•NYG are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
•Under is 9-5 in NYG last 14 overall.
•Over is 3-0 in the last three meetings in NY.

NFL Pick of the Week Against the Spread - Opening Betting Lines Week 17

The Final Regular Season NFL Match-ups


The Cincinnati Bengals (7-8) at The Philadelphia Eagles (13-2)
Against the Spread:  Bengals 6-8-1 | Eagles 9-6-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Bengals -3 -101 Over/Under 41u +103

The Cleveland Browns (3-12) at The Houston Texans (7-8)
Against the Spread:  Browns 5-10-0 | Texans 9-6-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Texans -10.5 -102 Over/Under 39u -102

The Detroit Lions (6-9) at The Tennessee Titans (4-11)
Against the Spread:  Lions 8-7-0 | Titans 4-11-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Lions -3 -109 Over/Under 45u -105

The Green Bay Packers (9-6) at The Chicago Bears (5-10)
Against the Spread:  Packers 6-9-0 | Bears 5-10-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Bears -3 -105 Over/Under 34u +101

The Miami Dolphins (4-11) at The Baltimore Ravens (8-7)
Against the Spread:  Dolphins 6-9-0 | Ravens 9-6-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Ravens -10 -+101 Over/Under 34.5u +101

The Minnesota Vikings (8-7) at The Washington Redskins (5-10)
Against the Spread:  Vikings 7-8-0 | Redskins 5-10-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Vikings -4 -108 Over/Under 41u -109

The New Orleans Saints (7-8) at The Carolina Panthers (7-8)
Against the Spread:  Saints 7-8-0 | Panthers 59-5-1
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Panthers -8 -106 Over/Under46u -105

The N.Y. Jets (10-5) at The St. Louis Rams (7-8)
Against the Spread:  Jets 8-6-1 | Rams 4-10-1
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Jets -3 +109 Over/Under 43u +109

The Pittsburgh Steelers (14-1) at The Buffalo Bills (96)
Against the Spread:  Steelers 9-5-1 | Bills 11-4-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Bills -9 -110 Over/Under 34u +102

The San Fransisco 49ers (2-13) at The New England Patriots (13-2)
Against the Spread:  49ers 6-9-0 | Patriots 10-3-2
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Patriots -13.5 -104 Over/Under 37u -106

The Atlanta Falcons (11-4) at The Seattle Seahawks (8-7)
Against the Spread:  Falcons 6-8-1 | Seahawks 5-10-0
Game Time: 4:05 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Seahawks -5.5 -105 Over/Under 42.5u +101

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-10) at The Arizona Cardinals (5-10)
Against the Spread:  Buccaneers 5-8-2 | Cardinals 8-7-0
Game Time: 4:05 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Cardinals -3.5 +107 Over/Under 38u +101

The Indianapolis Colts (12-3) at The Denver Broncos (9-6)
Against the Spread:  Colts 9-5-1 | Broncos 5-7-3
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Broncos -9 -101 Over/Under 44.5u -112

The Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7) at The Oakland Raiders (5-10)
Against the Spread:  Jaguars 9-6-0 | Raiders 6-9-0
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: OTB -3 -105 Over/Under OTB
Real curious to see what this line ends up at.

The Kansas City Chiefs (7-8) at The San Diego Chargers (11-4)
Against the Spread:  Chiefs 6-9-0 | Chargers 12-1-2 Best ATS in the League
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Chiefs -3 -108 Over/Under 54.5u -101

The Dallas Cowboys (6-9) at The N.Y. Giants (5-10)
Against the Spread:  Cowboys 7-8-0 | Giants 7-8-0
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET ESPN Sunday Night Football
Opening NFL Betting Lines: The Giants -3 +107 Over/Under 37.5u -111

Not made any solid decisions on any games yet.

At first glance there are 4 that seem to have value:

Bengals over Eagles
Packers over Bears
Vikings over Redskins
Patriots over 49ers

Even these need closer inspection before any final decision.

Chack back for line changes and anything worth noting on this weekends games.

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting MNF - Monday Night Football Week 16

Someone slipped me a Micky, I'm not responsible for last-nights post nor the stupid wager that I made.

ABC Monday Night Football

The Philadelphia Eagles (13-1) at The St. Louis Rams (6-8)
NFL Against the Spread:   Eagles 9-5-0 | Rams 3-10-1
Game Time: 9:00 PM ET ABC MNF
Current High NFL Betting Line: Rams -3 -110 to -120
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Rams -1.5 -117
Over/Under 44u to 45u -100 to -110
No TO + everything in a nice package for Eagles = Rams Win?

The Eagles should be in rest and repair mode. They have the Division Title, first round bye and Home Field Advantage. They have already lost one key player in WR Terrell Owens, who is out for what amounts to be the rest of the season. WR Todd Pinkston is hurt, and with TO out, and nothing to be gained by a victory, it's highly unlikely that he will play at all. Their other go to guy, WR Freddie Mitchell, is listed as probable, but almost the same applies to him. It would be surprising to see anything more than a quarter or so from him. Fact is, anyone with an injury that is a starter will see little to no playing time. There is rumor that RB Brian Westbrook may not see any more carries until the playoffs.

Andy Reid is not stupid, he knows that without TO the Eagles offense dramatically changes. Reid is also wise enough to let better judgment win out over pride. He has already stated that none of his starters will be on the field much later than half-time. He knows that finishing 15-1 would be something that only three other teams have done, but he also sees the big picture. The Super Bowl. The Eagles have done what they needed do to to put themselves in the best possible position for the playoffs, now the most important thing is to go into the post season as healthy as possible, both offensively and defensively.

The Rams are in a must win situation. Not just tonight, but next week also if they hope to see playing time after Jan. 2nd. A victory over Philadelphia is a must. They lose tonight they are out. Period. Even winning out is not going assure them of anything. A victory tonight and next week, then a loss by Seattle to the Falcons next week and they would get in as the NFC West Division winners. They will still have several wild-card opportunities available even without a Seattle loss, but it all starts with a win tonight.

The Rams Injury list is getting better. QB Marc Bulger took snaps with the first team in practice, and although he didn't make any deep passes, was on the mark with the intermediate throws. Since this is a good portion of the trowing game, that had to please Martz. He will have his full compliment of receivers, in Isaac Bruce, Tory Holt, Shaun McDonald and Kevin Curtis. The only names with red crosses next to them are RB Steven Jackson and TE Brandon Manumaleuna.

So the advantage appears to go to the Rams. On the turf at home, with the speed they have, playing against a bunch of young players should result in win 1 of 2 to get them on the road to the playoffs.

Value isn't high, so a moderate wager is suggested.



My Online Betting Action: The Rams -2.5

Recent Trends
•PHI is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
•PHI is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. Conference Opponents.
•Under is 10-3 in the Eagles last 13 overall.
•Under is 4-2 in the last six meetings.
•STL is 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.
•Under is 3-0 in the Rams last three played in Dec.

As promised:

Anna Loves Monday Night Football

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting ESPN Sunday Night Football

6 of 8 going into The Night Game. My San Diego wager wasn't a major loss as it was a small one made mainly because of the +250. Should have won that one. That game was decided by the Zebras in the second from my view.

The NFL ESPN Night Game

The Cleveland Browns (3-11) at The Miami Dolphins (3-11)
NFL Against the Spread:   Browns 4-10-0 | Dolphins 6-8-0
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET ESPN
Current High NFL Betting Line: Dolphins -10 -100
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Dolphins -8 -110 to -117
Over/Under 40u to 40.5u +15 to -110
There is absolutely nothing riding on this game except dignity.

The Browns are a very bad team. Injury plagued on both sides of the ball from the beginning of the season and poor coaching has gotten them right where they deserve to be. Tied for dead last in the AFC.

Miami has been hit even worse in the injury/lost players column. They only real difference is that Wannstedt was a better coach than the Brown's Butch Davis. Dolphins are at least coming off a big win against the AFC East Title holding New England Patriots.

The Browns, on the other hand were handed their hats yet again. Last week by the Chargers.

Miami has kept the last several games, even their losses, relatively close. The Browns have not. Losing their last 4 by an average margin of 22 points.

Both Miami and Cleveland have terrible offenses, but the Dolphins O has at least shown some sparks of life. Plus they do have a decent D, at least against the passing game.

This is where dignity comes into play.

The players on the Dolphins team do not want to finish the season in last place. They have the harder of the two teams finishing schedules. They will be heading to Baltimore, they know that this is their best shot at getting win #4.

Cleveland is in complete disarray, and even if they really care about a fourth win, getting their “poop in a group” enough to beat Miami at home is along shot.

So, just for fun and since I have enough wiggle room to accept a small loss I'm going to do the unthinkable and lay a little action off on Miami's side.

My Online Betting Action: Two Team Teaser (6pts)The Dolphins & The Over -8(+6), Over 40(-6)

Recent Trends
•CLE is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. Conference Opponents.
•CLE is 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.
•Over is 4-0 in the Browns last four on the road.
•Over is 4-0 in the Fins last four at home.
•Over is 8-1 in MIA's last nine games overall.
•MIA is 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.

Be sure to drop back by for the MNF outlook and an Anna Surprise!

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Picks of The Week 16

Sorry for the short post.

The NFL Sunday Match-Ups

The Buffalo Bills (8-6) at The San Fransisco 49ers (2-12)
NFL Against the Spread:   Bills 10-4-0 | 49ers 6-8-0
Game Time: 4:305 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bills -13 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bills -11 -105 to -110
Over/Under 43u to 43.5u +105 to -110
This one has Bills written all over it.

Sory, No big post. Bills just so outclass the 49ers that there is no way to not take the value bet with this game. Even based on The Bills ATS it's a solid value wager.

My Online Betting Action: The Bills -10

The New England Patriots (12-2) at The N.Y. Jets (10-4)
NFL Against the Spread:   Patriots 9-3-2 | Jets 8-5-1
Game Time: 4:05 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Patriots -3 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Patriots PICK -110
Over/Under 42u to 42.5u -101 to -110
Struggling to find a reason not to expect a rebound from Brady and Company, even at Jets.


Brady, as good as Jets D is, has too much at stake. His reputation not to mention the Pats' Positioning in the Seeding.

Smallish Bet.

My Online Betting Action: The Patriots -0

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Picks of The Week 16

First a quick Shout Out to JRF from Breakaway Beach for the nice plug, glad you got that win!

2 of 3, Santa wasn't quite as nice as I had hoped.

The NFL Sunday Match-Ups


The Baltimore Ravens (8-6) at The Pittsburgh Steelers (413-1)
NFL Against the Spread:   Ravens 9-5-0 | Steelers 8-5-1
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Steelers -6 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Steelers -4.5 -115
Over/Under 33.5u to 34u -105 to -110
Baltimore is in a “lose and out” situation, Steelers want the first round bye.

The Ravens are 8-6, and behind Denver as of the outcome of tonights game. That puts them in basically a win-out or leave scenario. With only 4 teams clinched in the AFC, figuring out the possible outcomes and who may or may not get in takes a mathematician. Bottom line, they lose they do not see the post season. That's motivation, and this needs it. After the Patriots snapped their 3 game win streak they have lost two of the last three, one of those to the Bengals at home.

Pittsburgh, by contrast, know that they are going to the playoffs. What they seek is the first round bye and Home Field advantage. They are the polar opposite of Baltimore having been on a winning streak since game 3. That said, they showed the weak side a little more with the close victory over the below average Giants last week.

Statistically the Steelers D is without reproach, allowing a very meager 15.7 points a game. They have the #1 rushing D, giving up only 80.9 yards on the ground and the #4 passing D with opposing QB's only getting an average of 177 passing yards against them. In addition to that the have a great Giveaway/Takeaway ratio at +12 and the don't squander all those opportunities. The defense has scored 42 points so far.

The offense isn't quite as stellar, but is not bad by any means. 23 points per game on a very balanced 171 passing and 151 rushing average. They have the 3rd best rushing game, and that's pretty incredible considering that RB Duce Staley has been in and out for a good portion of the year. Jerome Bettis, despite his age and what some might have thought about him early in the season, has gone above and beyond most expectations this year. The passing is what brings there overall ranking down to it's 19 seat (28th pass). Ben Roethlisberger is a rookie and has had his share of lumps as of late. This has kept him on a tight leash within the system, hence his numbers are not very high. He gets the job done, and hasn't “blown” one yet.

Baltimore has a stout and more balanced defense. They are 6th against the rush and 9th against the pass. Their Giveaway/Takeaway numbers aren't as good at +7, but they convert better, with the defense having 54 points to their credit at this point. The Ravens are just as miserly when it comes to giving up points, allowing only 16.1 per game. In fact they are just a notch or so below Pittsburgh in rushing and passing yards allowed at 100.1 and 189.5, respectively, per game.

The Ravens offense is only 3.1 points behind the Steelers at 20 per game. They too are as equally unimpressive in the passing game as they are impressive rushing the ball, with a rushing average of 128.7 but a meager 142.4 through the air. So that does put them behind ranking wise at 30th overall - 9th rush and 31st pass – but not that far behind.

There are two key things that make this game a goos wager. Pittsburgh is a perfect 7-0 at home and WR Plaxico Burress will return to duty. His presence on the field opens things up for both the passing game and the running game.

My Online Betting Action: The Steelers -4.5

Recent Trends
•Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
•Under is 6-1 in the Ravens last seven away.
•BAL is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
•PIT is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
•Under is 6-1 in the Steelers seven games overall.
•PIT is 28-14 in 42 games with total 35pts or less.

The San Diego Chargers (8-6) at The Indianapolis Colts (4-10)
NFL Against the Spread:   Chargers 11-1-2 | Colts 9-4-1
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Colts -8 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Colts -7 -105 to -110
Over/Under 57u to 57.5u -107 to -110
San Diego is hot for another win as the underdog.

Not going to bother with the stats because they are too obvious. San Diego is weak against the pass, the Colts are weak against everything.

The Chargers got back to the good old days. It was RB LaDainian Tomlinson doing his thing on the ground and QB Drew Brees Doing his thing in the air. TE Antonio Gates got out of his 1 game slump, snagging his 12th TD as he tied the league record.

This was all done in the snow at Cleveland.

The Chargers have been solid all season, have clinched a playoff berth and the Division Title in the AFC West. The win would move them to the number three seed and give them their best shot at a first round bye and home field advantage. It's not a likely case, but certainly more attainable than what Indianapolis is looking at.

The Colts are the number 4 seed and do have some motivation, but they rely more heavily on other games outcomes to change their situation. Even winning out would not secure a first round bye, as they would still need the Steelers to lose the next two and New England loses it's next two. That's highly unlikely.

There is also the fact that they have not been as offensively strong the last couple of games. With only 23 points scored at Houston and only 20 last week at home.

So even with the Chargers weakness against the passing game this should be a pretty close final.

Two ways on this game.

My Online Betting Action: The Chargers +7 & The Chargers M O +250

Recent Trends
•Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
•SD is 19-6 ATS in their last 25 played in a Dome.
•SD is 6-1 ATS in their last seven played away.
•IND has won the last three meetings ATS.
•Over is 14-5 in Colts last 19 vs. a winning team.
•IND is 5-2 ATS in their last seven at home.

That's it for the early games. Need more time to number crunch for the other two games I have my eye on. Bills and Seattle.

Here are the lines on those two, picks will be up before the early games tomorrow.


The Buffalo Bills (8-6) at The San Fransisco 49ers (2-12)
NFL Against the Spread:   Bills 10-4-0 | 49ers 6-8-0
Game Time: 4:305 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bills -13 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bills -11 -105 to -110
Over/Under 43u to 43.5u +105 to -110
This one has Bills written all over it.

Sory, No big post. Bills just so outclass the 49ers that there is no way to not take the value bet with this game. Even based on The Bills ATS it's a solid value wager.

My Online Betting Action: The Bills -10

The New England Patriots (12-2) at The N.Y. Jets (10-4)
NFL Against the Spread:   Patriots 9-3-2 | Jets 8-5-1
Game Time: 4:05 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Patriots -3 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Patriots Pick -110
Over/Under 42u to 42.5u -101 to -110
Struggling to find a reason not to expect a rebound from Brady and Company, even at Jets.


Brady, as good as Jets D is, has too much at stake. His reputation not to mention the Pats' Positioning in the Seeding.

Smallish Bet.

My Online Betting Action: The Patriots -2

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Picks of The Week 16

1 for 1 so far. Let's see what Santa brings me tomorrow.

The NFL Saturday Match-Up

The Oakland Raiders (5-9) at The Kansas City Chiefs (6-8)
NFL Against the Spread:   Raiders 5-9-0 | Chiefs 6-8-0
Game Time: 5:00 PM ET CBS
Current High NFL Betting Line: Chiefs -9 -100
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Chiefs -7.5 -110 to -117
Over/Under 58u to 59.5u -110
With The Chiefs still mathematically in the running there is at least something riding on this game.

Three weeks ago the Raiders returned home after a hard fought win over Denver in Mile High, with equally high hopes of another win against their Division rivals, Kansas City Chiefs. Those hopes were kept alive for 30 minutes as each team retired to the locker room at halftime with Oakland ahead by 10 points and little doubt that their manhandling of the Chiefs would continue for the remaining 30 minutes of the game. That began to fade within 4:37 of the second half.

After a rather dismal start to the game, QB Trent Green as well as back-up RB Larry Johnson began what was to be a nearly flawless second half, sparked by a 4 ½ minute beginning drive capped off by a five yard TD run by Johnson. Trent Green went 14 of 15 for 229 yards. This included a tie breaking, 70 yard strike to WR Eddie Kennison, with 124 ticks left on the clock. Larry Johnson ran for 118 yards on 20 carries and a rushing TD. He also caught 3 for 56 yards and a receiving touchdown.

But there was more to the Chiefs Come-From-Behind win.

Kansas City all but completely shutdown the Oakland offense, allowing QB Kerry Collins to lead his team on only one scoring drive late in the third quarter. That ended with the only points for Oakland in the second half, with a 26 yard TD pass from Collins to Ronald Curry 42 seconds into the 4th quarter. Collins had one more shot late in the 4th when he hooked up with John Stone for 18 yards and then an 11 yard pass to J.R. Redmond to bring the Raiders into KC territory with about a 1:30 left in the game. But Kansas Cities D came up big for the next four plays, breaking up passes intended for Jerry Porter, Stone and Doug Gabrial as well as sacking Collins on 2-10 for a 9 yard loss.

Oakland rebounded by getting blown out by Atlanta 35-10. Then picked up the 40-35 victory at home against the Titans.

Considering they entered the second half of the season 2-6, the fact that they are sitting at 5-9 is some redemption. They are .500 in their last six and with the exception of the Falcons game have been “in” each game.

The Chiefs are a mathematical possibility for post-season play in the incredibly tight AFC. They are on a three game winning streak, including last weeks pummeling of the Denver Broncos. Trent Green has stepped it up a notch with the absence of Priest Holmes as had RB Derrick Blaylock.

Blaylock, unfortunately for the Chiefs, will probably ot get the nod to start, but Larry Johnson will start and did pretty well against the Raiders in Oakland just a few weeks ago. WR Johnnie Morton will more than likely miss his second straight. What's worse, is the fact that Dante' Hall, who has been filling in for Morton, twisted an ankle during practice and is questionable for tomorrows game. Ever the optimist, Coach Dick Vermeil holds out hope that Hall will be ready to go come game-time. KC's hoping he is right. Depending on Chris Horn's game-time status, Samie Parker my get his 1st start of the season.

Moving on to the rest of injuries worth noting.

DE Vonnie Holliday will miss his second straight, this isn't as bad as it seems. Rookie Jared Allen leads the D in sacks with 8 from RDE, so the shoes have been amply filled.

Gout has Trent Green caught between a Fork and a hard place if 10 time Pro Bowler, OT Willie Roaf can't start. Pain in his feet have kept him out of two days of practice. This means that if he can't go, Trent's blind left side will be in the hands of two unproven commodities in Brett Williams and rookie Kevin Sampson.

On to the Stats:

The Raiders are mediocre across the board offensively. Averaging 20 points a game on a 326yds per game - 251 in the air and a dead last 74 rushing. Their defense is much worse, coming in last in average points against at 28.4. They allow 375 passing and 130 rushing per game. These are not numbers you want to have going up against an offense like that of the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Chiefs offensive numbers are very good. They are the second highest scoring team with an average per game total of 31.5 points. They get that via a league leading 415.5 yards a game – 264.2 in the air and 151.4 on the ground – this without Holmes for the past 4½ games.

The Chiefs are 3-4 both on the road and at home, so being in KC this season has not big as big of an advantage as it has been in past seasons. Oakland, on the other hand has been slightly worse on the road at 2-5.

Other points worth mentioning are the fact that the Chiefs are 2-2 in Divisional games, while Oakland is 1-4. KC is 5-5 in AFC match-ups to Oakland's 3-7.

So with all that nonsense in mind and the simple fact that the Chiefs are a more talented team with more at stake, with their hopes (even slim as the hopes may be) of post-season play on the line, this game is worth a couple of small wagers.

My Online Betting Action: The Chiefs -7 & The Over 59

The Over is based on the scoring ability of KC and the fact that their average totals over the last 8 games is 65.3. Additionaly the total has broken the 60 point mark in 6 of their last 8 and in all of their last four, including the loss to San Diego.

Recent Trends
•Over is 5-2 in the Raiders last seven on the road.
•OAK is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
•OAK is 1-7 ATS as a road dog of 7.5-10pts.
•Over is 10-2 in the Chiefs last 12 played in Dec.
•Over is 12-4 in KC's last 16 vs. Div. Opponents.
•KC is 3-0 ATS in December games this season.

The Denver Broncos (8-6) at The Tennessee Titans (4-10)
NFL Against the Spread:   Broncos 4-7-3 | Titans 4-10-0
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET ESPN NFL Saturday Night Game
Current High NFL Betting Line: Broncos -4.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Broncos -3.5 -115
Over/Under 50u to 50.5u -106 to -110
Not with the Popes money.

Even though Denver is in a must win situation tomorrow as well as next week to have any hopes of seeing the playoffs, their game play just doesn't give any value to this game from a wagering perspective.

The Titans are trying stuff and players out, knowing that their season will be over in two weeks. QB Billy Volek is being allowed to stretch his wings and throw the ball around. With RB Chris Brown sidelined, Antowain Smith will share duty with Robert Holcombe obviously. What isn't as obvious is RB Troy Fleming who is rumored to be seeing more carries the next couple of games.

These are all problems for a team in a situation like that of the Bronco's. They are going to be starting their best players, but may see a lot of unknowns (more play calling than players) on the field which can be very distracting. Particularly to defenses that haven't seen films on certain guys and have no idea what to expect from an offense that has nothing to lose by trying out some new material.

If you want some action on this game just for excitements sake, the Over/Under at 50 seems a bit high, so the Under may not be quite as bad as lighting your cigar with a Ben Franklin.


My Online Betting Action: None

Recent Trends
•Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.
•Under is 6-1 in the Broncos last seven away.
•DEN is 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight overall.
•TEN is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
•Over is 5-1 in TEN's six vs. AFC West Opponents.
•TEN is 1-7 ATS in their last eight played in Dec.

Merry Christmas Everybody!

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Picks of The Week 16

The NFL Friday Match-Up

The Green Bay Packers (8-6) at The Minnesota Vikings (8-6)
Against the Spread: Packers 5-9-0 | Vikings 7-7-0
Game Time: 3:00 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Vikings -3 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Vikings -3 -120
Over/Under 56u to 56.5u -110
Holy Mackerel what a game...

One thing is for sure, nothing...

The Over has all kinds of potential.

Neither Green Bay nor Minnesota can mount anything resembling a defense based on the way they have played the second half of the season.

Green Bay has allowed an average of 29 points a game in the last 3 and 25 in their last 6.

Minnesota has allowed an average of 26 points a game in the last 3 and 24.5 in their last 6.

When they last met the total was 65 with the Packers edging to the victory on Ryan Longwell's 33 yarder in the waining seconds of the game. But one must remember that game was played sans the Vikings star, wide receiver Randy Moss.

The Packer's are going into this game without a key situational receiver in Robert Ferguson. This is going to put a little more pressure on Antonio Chatman. The good news is that Chatman does have good hands and is a solid route runner, if maybe a bit to the small side. Let us not forget that the #2 Ranked WR, Javon Walker, will be a nice offset to the Vikings Randy Moss.

Najeh Davenport is still bothered with his ribs, but Ahman Green appears to be well healed, having gained 94 yards on 15 carries against the stout rushing D of Jacksonville.

Green Bay's defense is much as it has been for the better part of the season, in disarray and banged up. Grady Jackson is probable, but the bigger problem there is that his sub, James Lee, is out because of his knee. This means that Larry Smith will play sub for Jackson. There is also the fact that Jackson could go down altogether which would put the spotlight on Smith. Then we have the rest of the line. Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila has a sprained neck but is probable. KGB's numbers have been so hot and cold this season however, that who shows up is listed as questionable. Na'il Diggs is questionable and is rostered as back-up to Paris Lenon, who has been the starter at LB the last 2 games. Then you have the whole secondary fiasco.

There is real talent there in Sharper, Roman, Hawthorne and of course Al Harris yet something just doesn't gel. These guys should not be getting burned as often as they seem to be. Laying it off on coaching or the enforcement of the contact rule could allow for some leniency, except other CB's with less raw talent are doing a better job. You can excuse Ahmad Carroll for giving up a couple big plays, you can't with the vets. The veterans ought to know better and be quicker to read the routes and make adjustments to keep receivers from getting behind them so often. They should not be getting the amount of penalties that they are. In point of fact the secondary is not fundamentally sound, not by a long shot.

A statement made by Sharper probably sums it up best. When asked what the Packer's defensive style was he replied, “I don't know, I don't even know”.

Minnesota is going to be at home with their full compliment of receivers alive and well. Randy Moss, for all intents and purposes, appears to have most, if not all, of his speed back. Even having 90% Moss is going to be a handful for Al Harris. Nate Burleson stepped up big time when Moss first went down and has now made a solid name for himself. He's grabbed six in the endzone since then, one in each game that Moss was sidelined and 2 last week against Detroit. There's also Marcus Robinson, who's no slouch with his 603 yards and 7 TD's.

When TE Jimmy Kleinsasser went out early in the season their was serious concern about the position. Those concerns have long since been set aside as Jermaine Wiggins has filled the gap very nicely. He's in the top 10 amongst his peers and has 4 touchdowns to his credit, putting him tied for 3rd overall in that stat. Not counting Gates because he's a freak of nature with almost 1000 yards receiving and 12 TD's. Those aren't tight end numbers, those are WR numbers and damned good ones at that.

Onterrio Smith is ailing with the flu, but Michael Bennett was slated to start against the Packer's anyway. Smith should be available for situational play and may do a little kick returning. Although center Cory Withrow, has been pretty good at filling in for Matt Birk, having allowed only 2 sacks in his 4 starts, the Vikings have got to be pleased that Birk stands a good chance of starting.

So the ramblings still leaves the ultimate question unanswered. Is this game worth action?

Both teams are vying for the NFC North Division Title.

Green Bay is already guaranteed a playoff berth, but would clinching the Division Title with a victory in the Dome has got to sound very sweet to the players. There's even more to the story than that. A win would give them Home Field advantage in the post season opener and with the injury to the Eagles Terrell Owens, the NFC is wide open in the postseason. None of that changes what's at stake for Minnesota however.

If the Vikings win they will be in the drivers seat in the North and be playoff bound. But, if they lose all is still not lost. They would only miss post season play if the Panthers and the Rams win both of their remaining games and Seattle wins one of theirs. That's assuming they lose to the Packers as well as the Redskins, leaving them 8-8. Obviously a victory in either game will clinch a berth.

In this gamblers view the Packers really have more at stake and more motivation to win. It will establish them as a solid contender in the NFC, give them at least one more game in front of their fans and a great start to the playoffs.


My Online Betting Action: The Packers +3 &
The Over 55.5 Did not get bet in on time, Over/Under had gone to 57.5

Recent Trends
•Over is 8-0 in the last eight meetings.
•Over is 12-4 in GB's last 16 vs. Division opponents.
•GB have lost the last three ATS played in Dec.
•MIN is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
•Under is 5-2 in MIN's last seven played in Dec.
•MIN is 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.

NFL Pick of the Week - This is Still Football, Right?

Real post on Fridays game coming up shortly, but this grabbed me and just had to be posted.

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Line of Scrimmage: Week 16 - NFL Should Ban "Horsecollar" Tackles

By Tony Moss, NFL Editor

Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - Whether you like Terrell Owens or despise him, when word came down Monday that Owens would likely miss the rest of the season due to injuries suffered in the previous day's win over the Cowboys, you had to feel a touch of disappointment.

There are many, including a wealth of folks in San Francisco, Dallas and Baltimore, who would enjoy seeing Owens fall flat on his face on the big stage. But that means dropping a critical pass to lose the game, not breaking a fibula and spraining an ankle to jeopardize the immediate future of his team.

I am paid to be an objective observer of the league, but even I was sick to my stomach as I heard Philadelphia trainer Rick Burkholder break the solemn news. No true fan wants to see one of the league's most electrifying players wiped from the lineup by something like this.

Then I flashed back to Week 11, when the same player that tackled Owens, namely Cowboys safety Roy Williams, applied the same "horse-collar" technique in bringing down Ravens running back Musa Smith. Smith's day ended with a compound fracture of his right tibia, a positively gruesome injury for both the player and anyone unlucky enough to have witnessed it. Williams has now been responsible for as many broken bones as interceptions this season, and while no one is accusing him of intending to inflict injury, the thoroughly unlikable Williams wasn't NOT trying to inflict injury either. Know what I'm saying?

Whether necessary or not, Williams gets a pass for the bone-snappings because both hits were technically legal. But should they have been?

Bringing a player down from behind by the neck or shoulders obviously places a great deal of force on the ball carrier's legs. And because the hit is generally applied from behind or the blind side, the player being tackled is unable to prepare to be dropped as he would with a more conventional tackle. The risk of injury with a hit of this type is great, and a league that preaches safety for its players needs to take notice.

The NFL limits face masks, blocks in the back, crackback blocks, and chop blocks due to the risk of injury, and also penalizes players for late hits and tackles out of bounds. The league fines players who make helmet-to-helmet contact or throw forearms, like Jacksonville's Donovin Darius did to Green Bay's Robert Ferguson last week. Darius was fined $75,000 for his hit.

Is the horsecollar tackle more dangerous than a forearm? Maybe you should ask Owens, who will be hobbling around on crutches while Ferguson recovers from his sprained neck to suit up for the playoffs.

Enforcing a mandate against this type of tackle would require some deliberation by the league. The tackling of a ball carrier from behind is as common as the man in motion, and pulling a player down by the jersey is not a dirty or dangerous hit in and of itself. A period of adjustment would be required so that players and officials could learn the subtle differences between what is acceptable and what is dangerous.

But if the league doesn't do something, it is going to watch as more standout players like Owens suffer a premature end to their seasons, or worse, their careers.

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This is a tough sport, injuries are going to happen. That's a fact. The NFL keeps trying to make this a game that is exciting with all the camera angles, shorting up the play clock, etc... Yet the same writers that are making money from these changes, that bring the viewers to the screen and the field, have the audacity to get indignent over the roughness of the sport, calling for more rules to "protect" the players.

We already have a system in place that makes it a penalty to look at the quartback wrong. The rule against contact on a receiver has been in place for years, it's only now that it's being somewhat enforced.

The hit that Donovin Darius made on Green Bay's Robert Ferguson, that subsquently sent him to the hospital, was and has been illegal.



He was dealt with somewhat justly, although I would have liked to have seen a much heavier fine (75k is what he got) and a one game suspension just because of the obviousness of his intent to clothesline Ferguson.

But the so-called "Horsecollar" is nothing more nor nothing less than an appropriate way to bring a guy down from behind. You grab him and pull, it's the NFL, not afterschool flag football.

Just my $0.02 worth.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh - More Self Promotion

This is from T.J.'s own column... Ugh

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Cold no problem for SoCal native

Former Oregon State receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh, now in his fourth year with the Cincinnati Bengals, writes a weekly column on life in the NFL. Today he writes about playing in cold weather.

I am a guy who grew up in Southern California and cold weather to me growing up was 50 degrees. I encountered a little cold weather at night games in Corvallis but nothing compares to my first game in cold weather my rookie season as a Bengal.

I remember the situation very vividly. It was the week after Thanksgiving and we were playing Baltimore. The night before I watched the local weather and the forecast called for a high of 15 degrees.

When I got to Paul Brown Stadium on Sunday morning the wind was whipping off the river and it was cold. I got dressed and instead of putting on a turtleneck or the synthetic tights, I went sleeveless and went out for warm-ups.

I was cold but it wasn't unbearable. I had practiced in the cold weather and that actually is worse than playing in cold weather. In the games, you're moving around, you've got gloves on, and I use the hand warmer attached around my waist.

Plus, when the defense is on the field, offensive players can wear the heavy jackets and sit on the heated benches.

I actually like playing in the cold weather. Since I got here to Cincinnati, I'm used to the cold weather and now I only wear a winter coat when it gets below 20 degrees.

I know it is crazy but it is true. Plus, when the weather gets really cold it is an advantage for us when we play warm-weather teams at home. But it is not as much of an advantage as one might think.

Every team has guys who played college ball in the Midwest or East Coast and they're used to getting it on when the weather gets cold. So, it is not like they've never played in freezing conditions before.

What is an advantage for the home field is how the field reacts to the freezing conditions.

Some of the stadiums where we play the turf is heated below the surface while other surfaces are not. I know how our turf is when it gets cold, and I'd love to tell everybody how it is, but if I do my advantage over defensive backs is gone.

Let's just say that every field reacts differently to the cold weather.

So, the next time you're watching a game and the temperature is single digits, don't feel sorry for the players. Heck, most of them are really enjoying the weather.

I know I would.

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Maybe T.J. thought that his QB would be able to throw in the cold, or that the RB could hold on to the ball. Or maybe he didn't think that Buffalo could handle the cold even better. Whatever he was thinking was wrong!

Anna gives NFL Pick of the Week a Butt Shot

Lines coming up shortly

NFL Against the Spread - Just How Hard Betting to Win Is

Soory about no post The MNF Game. Just didn't seem like the waste of time. As you could see I lost my ass Rear-End. Oh well.

This goes just in line with what is going on now and just how hard it is going to get from this point until playoffs.

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If NFL lines look strange, here's why
By DAVE TULEY

Monday was a quiet morning at the Stardust sports book. Usually, the Stardust puts up its opening NFL lines on Sunday night to accompany the college football lines for the following Saturday. But with the lines for college football bowl games having been on the board for two weeks, there was no sense of urgency to release the NFL lines, so the Stardust waited until Monday morning to put them up.

That also gave oddsmakers a little more time to go through all the injury reports, weather forecasts, and playoff scenarios that can affect wagering at this time of year.

"These last two weeks of the NFL season are the toughest to put up solid lines," said Bob Scucci, the Stardust's race and sports book director. "Some teams that have locked in their playoff position will be resting their starters. Other teams are in must-win situations, so the bettors will be focusing on them.

"We have to take all those factors into consideration and put up the best line we can for early in the week. Then we really have to keep an eye on the injury reports and coaches' quotes about who they will be resting and make adjustments through the week. We will probably see some lines move four to five points."

Scucci used the Falcons-Saints game as an example. The Stardust opened the Saints as a 1 1/2-point favorite.

"Based on the strength of the teams, the Falcons should clearly be favored in that game," Scucci said, "but the Falcons have nothing to play for. They can't improve their position, so no one really knows how much their starters will play. The Saints are still fighting for a wild-card spot, so we had to make them a favorite because you know the public will be looking to play them."

Just then, Scucci was called away to approve a bet on the Saints, and he moved the line to 2 1/2.

Scucci said another game where there could be a strange line is the Eagles-Rams game next Monday night. It was off the board this Monday because of the injury status of Rams quarterback Marc Bulger and Eagles receiver Terrell Owens.

"The Eagles should be about a touchdown favorite on the road in that matchup, but they've clinched home field throughout the NFC playoffs and will not have any incentive," said Scucci. "The Rams need that game a lot more, so we're working on finding the right number once we learn more."

In the two hours after the NFL lines were posted, at 8 a.m. Pacific, the only other game that was bet enough to move off the opening number was the Broncos-Titans game on Saturday, which opened at Broncos -4 and was bet to 3 1/2 right after the numbers went up.

That wasn't too surprising as the Las Vegas Hilton and Stratosphere did put up NFL lines on Sunday night and both opened the Broncos -3 and they were bet to -4, so it's likely some sharp bettor took the Broncos -3 on Sunday night and decided to take back the Titans +4 on Monday morning.

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Ok, Tom... now tell me who really is more attractive?

Maria Sharapova Regularly visits NFL Pick Of The Week.

NFL Against the Spread Online Betting Picks of The Week 15

Ok Fast And Furious. Watching the Panthers, which as you all know I have a wager on. It will be a winning day or a break even day depending on the outcome.

The Dallas Cowboys (5-8) at The Philadelphia Eagles (12-1)
Against the Spread: Cowboys 5-8-0 | Eagles 9-4-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Eagles -14 +120
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Eagles -12.5 -110
Over/Under 46u -110
Despite last weeks outcome, they are still good to cover against Dallas. Wager already on Eagles -

The Eagles had one of their worst outings last week against the Redskins. They still are great ATS and that number has been lowered this week because of that game. McNabb can get it done with T.O., L.J and B.W. (Brian Westbrook, trying to keep up with the initials thing. Westbrook has proven over the last couple of games that he really does deserve the job. He has good running ability and great hands. Just what you want in an all purpose back, aka Faulk. T.O., well T.O. Is what he is, one of the best in the biz. In the Moss v. Owens battle, Owens wins. His size enables him to do thing that Moss can't, YET! Moss has the acrobatics, but he can't get off on the CB's like T.O. Can. Let him bulk up another year and we shall see.

Sorry for the tangent.

Game Break: Yes! Carolina just scored, 7 point game...

Ok, numbers...

Eagles offense 5th in points scored at 27.5, allow only 15.0
Dallas offense 21st in points cored at 19.2, allow 27.3
Eagles defensive points, 24 total on 15 INT's and 13 Forced Fumbles
Dallas defensive points, 0 total on 8 INT's and 10 Forced Fumbles
Eagles overall offensive ranking, 7th - 22nd rush, 5th pass
Dallas overall offensive ranking, 15th - 18th rush, 17th pass

Game Break: Right On! Vick fumbles, Peppers recovers it, returns 60 yards for TD, tied 24 all.

Dallas overall defensive ranking, 25th - 12th rush, 26th pass <--That's gonna hurt
Eagles overall defensive ranking, 12th - 13th rush, 13th pass (how does that figure to a 12th rating?)

The Eagles have an average margin of victory of 15.25 points.
Dallas has an average margin of loss of 18 points.

The Math isn't hard to figure out.

My Online Betting Action: The Eagles -11.5

Recent Trends
•Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
•Cowboys are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 overall.
•Under is 6-2 in DAL last eight games in Dec.
•Under is 9-3 in PHI last 12 overall.
•PHI is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in Dec.
•PHI is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.

Game Break: Woohoo! Panther's just scored again. 31-24... the Money Line Wager is starting to look mighty sweet from this end. 3:37 4th quarter.


The Houston Texans (5-8) at The Chicago Bears (5-8)
Against the Spread: Texans 7-6-0 | Bears 6-7-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bears -1 -110 to -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bears 0 -110
Over/Under 33.5u to 34u -110
Are the Texans back on a roll? I won a good chuck of change betting then as underdogs early in the season. Going to have to look at this game long and hard.

Looked long and hard and the fact is that the Texans, as streaky as they can be, are a better club than the Bears are at this stage.

Chicago's Hutchinson had a good first game against the very weak D of the Vikings. He did not do so hot against the Jags. Going 17 of 33 for 212 yards, no touchdowns and 1 interception. Ended the day with 52% completions, and in general just didn't look very good.

Game Break: Vick just got slammed on 2nd & goal, hobbled off the field. 2min. Warning, ughhh, sweating profusely now...

By contrast, even though they lost, Houston kept the powerhouse offense of Indy to a meager 23 points and Carr looked good. He was 16 of 21, 1 touchdown and 1 interception. Finished with 76.2% completions and a rating of 94.7. None too shabby. Domanick Davis had an outstanding day, rushing for 128 yards on 23 carries. He caught 6 passes for 73 yards, but it was against the Colts.

Game Break: 4th & goal from the Atlanta 14, Vick runs it in for the TD, extra point is good. 31-31 1:37 left Panther's have 1 timeout (Booth review on TD, it was an amazing feat on Vick's part).

The Bear's have a more efficient defense, scoring 54 points while allowing only 20. They rank 17th overall -24th against the rush, 12th against the pass.
Houston comes in at a lowly 30th overall - 18th against the rush, 29th against the pass, and they are much less efficient, scoring only 30 points defensively.

Game Break: OT Panther's to receive.

Offensively the numbers change drastically. Houston is mid pack with an average of 19.2 per game and ranks 16th overall -20th rush, 18th pass. Carr has a QB rating of 84.6 with over 300 yards, and 13 touchdowns. The downside is he has 12 interceptions and 10 fumbles (he's only lost 2 however). A lot of that can be attributed to the O line, as the have allowed him to be sacked 37 times – tied for 3rd most in the NFL.

Game Break: Delhomme floats one over Proehl's head picked off by Beasley, returned to Carolina's 23. Two running plays, Feely's 38 yard field goal is good. Atlanta 34 Carolina 31 Fuck darned, should have taken the 3.5 points.

The Bear's are a horse of a different color. Their ranked dead last - 24th rush, 30th pass. Sitting second to last in scoring with only 15.3 per game and that's likely to go to last after the Washington game gets added. That is unless they pull a rabbit out of their hat tomorrow. Hutchinson is a complete unknown, so trying to calculate his effectiveness is a waste of time.

My Online Betting Action: The Texans +1

Recent Trends
•Under is 9-2 in HOU last 11 games in Dec.
•HOU is 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games.
•Under is 5-2-1 in HOU last eight overall.
•CHI is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in Dec.
•Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last seven at home.
•Under is 6-3 in CHI last nine home games.

The San Diego Chargers (10-3) at The Cleveland Browns (3-10)
Against the Spread: Chargers 10-1-2 | Browns 4-9-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Chargers -11 -125
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Chargers -9.5 -104 to -110
Over/Under 37u to 37.5u -110
Again, despite last week, wager already on Chargers -9.5

How can you not wager on a team with an ATS of 10-1-2. Riding them has been like a pony ride at the kiddy farm. The Chargers have everything clicking, even on off days like last week. Tomlinson is rockin' and rollin'. Brees is making it real tough to release him (What are they going to do next year, they can't keep him and Rivers). Here's what LT thinks about it ...issue his support for bringing resurgent quarterback Drew Brees back to San Diego next season. "I don't think there is any question," he told the North County Times. "Why break up something that's not broken? That's the way I feel about it. I hope I don't get in trouble." And he is right. Drew is playing great, he has lofted himself into the upper echelon of QB's. He is now #4, but still has a 102.7rating. Although he hasn't passed for the nearly 4000 yards that the guys in fron of him have, he still owns a 64.5 completion percentage and has only 6interceptions to his 23 touchdowns.

Don't expect Antonio Gates to be as lack-luster as he was last week. He's still one of the top receivers and he's tied for 3rd in TD's with 11.

San Diego's O line is getting the job done, both in pass blocking and in run blocking. Just look at the numbers, LT has 1147 yards rushing, 357 yards receiving and 14 touchdowns.
Brees has only hit the turf 16 times and he's actually rushed for 2 TD,s.

The Browns are coming around, but it's going to be a bit. They are going to have to go it again without Holcomb. Lee Suggs is questionable, very questionable. That means Green sees most of the running duties, and since they are playing from behind so often his numbers are very lacking, hence you really don't know what he may be capable of. He's only had 46 carries in the last 4 games, that's not enough to show you much.

McCown had a great outing against New England, but only completed 8 passes last week against Buffalo, throwing 2 INT's to his 1 touchdown. With all the injuries, having their best receiver on IR and the “who knows who's gonna be the starter” at RB they are just in such a disarray that it's amazing that they can score at all.

Cleveland has a single bright spot, they have CB Daylon McCutcheon back in the starting line-up. That's it. The rest of their numbers are evwen worse than they were last week, so no reason to hash over that.

This is a big bet yet again.

My Online Betting Action: The Chargers -9.5

Recent Trends
•SD is 11-1-2 ATS in their last 14 overall.
•Under is 4-1 in SD last five road games.
•SD is 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight on the road.
•Browns are 0-6 ATS in their last six overall.
•CLE is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 as a dog.
•Over is 2-0 in the last two meetings in CLE.

The Seattle Seahawks (7-6) at The N.Y. Jets (9-4)
Against the Spread: Seahawks 5-8-0 | Jets 7-5-1
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Current High NFL Betting Line: Jets -7 -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Jets -6.5 -110
Over/Under 40u to 40.5u -110
In spite of what the 'Hawks did last week, with both teams so desperate for the win, I give the advantage to Herm and Chad/Quincy. Eat the points, they are 7-5-1 ATS, Odds are in your favor.

Jets are going to run the ball with Chad still sore and the possibility that Carter may get in. It's going to be all about Curtis Martin.

Seattle's Matt Hasselbeck can get it done but it seems that Holmgren will keep the lid shut on him because of his tendency to throw interceptions at EXACTLY the wrong time. They got away with the win at Minnesota, but they tried to give it away. Again it's would seem that they will use Shaun Alexander to the utmost. Particularly when you consider how well he is playing.

Statistically the Seahawks have the advantage over the Jets in overall defense, but the jets make up for that with their Giveaway/takeaway numbers and the difference in points allowed.

Taking a little advice from Brian of N.Y. Jets Football blog in one respect, The Under.

But I'm still seeing the Jets as having the better ATS against tougher opponents.

Two ways:

One Medium.
My Online Betting Action: The Jets -6
One Small.
My Online Betting Action: The Under 40.5

Recent Trends
•Under is 4-2 in the last six meetings.
•SEA is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 overall.
•Over is 8-2 in SEA last 10 overall.
•Under is 8-3 in NYJ last 11 overall.
•NYJ are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games in Dec.
•Jets are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.